NBA:  Nuggets & the Playoffs // MLB:  Early Expectations; Colorado Rockies.   

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

                “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of every week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

            SPECIAL OLYMPICS SUMMER GAMES, COLORADO, June 2, @ UNC, Greeley: for more information: specialolympicsco.org , or: 800-777-5767.

NBA:    IT’s now about the numbers and positioning, about where a team fits along a vertical line reflecting wins and losses across a season about to end, and not so much about how far the Denver Nuggets have come but how they might compare with teams that they may face during a first round of the year’s playoffs, for instance, having to compete against the Oklahoma City Thunder now ahead of the Nuggets by 10 games (42 wins, the Nuggets are 32 wins and 26 losses), holding first place of the Western Conference’s Northwest Division (Denver’s in second place, but only by one game); or, the San Antonio Spurs, or the L.A. Lakers, teams that the Nuggets rarely beat by more than a few points.

In Wednesday’s bout with the WC-NW’s last place team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Nuggets went from a 24-point lead to finish 117-113, which pointed to an issue that could cause a playoff-designated Nuggets to go by the wayside during a first playoff-round: a late-in-the-game U-turn within a defense that weakens and gets sloppy enough for even a mediocre team to start scoring huge against the Nuggets. Yes, in that game, Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Aaron Afllalo combined for 79 points, and the Nuggets have achieved 37 three-pointers in its last four competitions---the shooting power and accuracy is alive and well among the Nuggets starters and reserve, but the Nuggets defense has been inconsistent throughout the 66-game season.

A downside is this: of the Nuggets eight remaining games, six are challenges by WC teams at par with, or ahead of, the Nuggets in the race for a playoff slot: today vs. the Lakers, followed by games against Houston (2x), the L.A. Clippers, the Phoenix Suns, the Thunder. Unless the Nuggets can improve their defense tactics to where the team can suppress opposing shooters enough to maintain a lead during each of the six upcoming WC games, even if it’s only of a few points up, well, it can be grueling and sad season finish, with playoff impossibility full on the horizon.

If the Nuggets defense that is needed fails to materialize, then the Denver team will need to produce an offense that scores as many points as it had during Wednesday’s Minnesota game, meanwhile keeping fouls to a record minimum, otherwise, “goodbye playoffs.

MLB:     In popular author John Grisham’s new novel about baseball, a rookie finishes four for four in his first MLB game appearance, which happens almost “never,” no more than fulfillment of the expectations that experts and fans have for their preferred team’s first weeks of an MLB season. The 10 or more games played in these weeks usually surprise us, not with a lot of amazing feats or comical blunders, instead with a lot of soft opposites from what ballplayers were expected to do based on a previous season or their accomplishments, or lack thereof, during spring training, for example, the New York Yankees were expected to be ahead of the pack from the get-go and it hasn’t happened, and the Los Angeles Dodgers were to have a nearly numberless start and they took a series away from the San Diego Padres, one of the three games a shutout.

And the Colorado Rockies beat the San Francisco Giants, 17-8, unexpectedly on Wednesday, April 11, neutralizing the Giants CY Young award pitcher, Tim Lincecum, after suffering a 7-0 loss to the Giants on Monday, April 9. The Rockies lost to the Giants again on Thursday, 4-2. They are now sub-par, if you will, having lost four of six games.

But it was Wednesday night’s win vs. the Giants that seemed to address both the potential and stigmas of an MLB franchise that seems to show up in the first two weeks of April. We want to think that last year’s positive attributes are still around and that the baggage is gone, and then we see both and they are fully animated. Last year, the Rockies were able to pile on runs, they had one of the best records of total runs achieved, but they kept giving away runs, too, enough of the latter for the Rockies to end 2011 under .500.

What good are runs if your defense can’t produce “outs” quickly during consecutive innings? Having purchased 17 runs against any team is remarkable, especially vs. a pitcher like Lincecum, his reserve and the Giants defense, but giving up 19 runs in three games is something to worry about.

End/ml          

MLB: The Competitive Edge For A Feast of Games //

A Backgrounder.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of every week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

SPECIAL OLYMPICS SUMMER GAMES, COLORADO: for more information: specialolympicsco.org

MLB:    MAJOR League Baseball's Opening Day is already past but still resonating: up ahead are games across six months of regulation play, then division and league battles, next the World Series, 30 teams aspiring to be numero uno after a 4-0 WS win, if not that then attainment of the lesser dream, a 4-3 WS take.      

A fair question, then: “What’s required for any of the world’s best baseball clubs to race ahead of all others?” The answer seems obvious: state-of-the-art skills, a.k.a., “TALENT, all the way to the hilt!” 

But every MLB franchise has lots of “TALENT.” Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers included Most Valuable Player, Matt Kemp, and Cy Young award winner, Clayton Kershaw, but the Dodgers did not win the National League crown and get to the WS.  

A lot more than super-talent is required for a professional baseball team to lead the pack, to stay in contention for a playoff berth. More precisely, and as touted recently in a New York Times article, a big need is, “Talent PRESERVATION”---keeping talent afield from April through September and into the post-season, a component of which is “injury prevention.” Imagine the Colorado Rockies Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez unable to play for around, say, 12 games, because of sprained ankles and/or turned thumbs---these two are among the game’s top hitters and fielders, they are the Rockies clean-up guys, rescuers for runs and for mailing “outs” to the opposition.

Another component of success is a catcher who can be as highly effective in August and September as he could be in April through July, which requires great stamina, maybe serious cross-training and physical therapy. Add, extra coaching and consultants for player performance enhancement, especially for hitters (MLB teams can hire an extra hitting coach).

Another necessity for that competitive edge is, as the NYT article emphasized, a farm system deep with talent and with players who can be called up to the majors in a day or so should a Tulowitzki, a Gonzalez, that effective catcher or a super hurler be injured or suddenly occupy Slumpland.   

Another concept for that leading edge is wise attainment of young players, especially those amenable to contracts spanning multiple years, enough time for talent to mature in ways fitting team policy and strategies, which includes caution regarding draft picks, noting that the number one pick isn’t always the best fit for a vacancy.

Too, there’s belief in that behind-the-scenes laptop or IPAD guy who can compute situational factors and come up with options for a next move, if the MLB club doesn’t already have a team manager who, with pencil behind the ear and scratch pad handy, thinks better than, and outmaneuvers, the electronics, and many MLB managers can in a heartbeat.

So---the teams employing “talent PRESERVATION” best will probably be those closest to the top of their divisions come September.

*   *    *

MLB BACKGROUND (a previous submission): 

NO-one is absolutely certain who invented the game as we know it today, or when it showed up as America’s gift to itself, but there’s evidence that it started long before the Civil War, sometime in the mid-1820’s, and that it evolved from a game played other side of the Atlantic by Brits who wanted something other than kicking a leather ball up, down and sideways across a muddy field. There’s a letter from famous American writer, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, written to his father, that underscores the early existence of the game, and there’s later evidence of early baseball from a rule book established by “The New York Knickerbockers Base Ball Club,” published in 1848. By the time baseball greats Ty Cobb (Detroit), Babe Ruth (NYY), Lou Gehrig (NYY), Rogers Hornsby (STL), Honus Wagner (Pitts), Christy Mathewson (NYG) and Grover Alexander (Phila) were playing the game in the first half of the 20^th Century, it had been around as a professional activity for more than twice the age of the oldest among them.

More than a dozen players inducted into baseball’s Hall of Fame began their careers in the 1800’s, and more than a dozen no-hit games were recorded by 1900 (one of the earlier official statistics). Another early-on statistic is this: the longest hitting streak that Joe DiMaggio (NYY) surpassed with his 56 straight hits in 1941 belonged to Willie Keeler (Baltimore), who punched out 44 in 1897. Too, unassisted triple plays have been 100 years apart, the first in 1909, the last in 2009 by Philadelphia against a New York Mets batter.

In the National League, no hitter has achieved an annual batting average higher than Hornsby’s .424, as far back as 1924, with the highest in the American League belonging to Nap Lajoie (Phila), 422, achieved in 1901, with Cobb being close with .420, earned in 1911 (Cobb is the only batter in MLB history to lead his league in batting average for 11 years, five of them straight, 1911-1915.)

In 1931, Gehrig produced the most RBI’s ever for a given year, 184. Discounting what batters have accomplished while using performance enhancement drugs, the most home runs in a single year were delivered by Roger Maris (NYY), 61, in 1961, surpassing Ruth’s 1921 achievement---59, the longest held home run record. To date, less than 20 hitters have provided more than 50 home runs per year.  .  .  And, the most games won by a pitcher during a single season were by Washington D.C.’s Walter Johnson, 36, in 1913, and the best ERA achieved by a NL pitcher for a given year belongs to Three Finger Brown (yes, his recorded name), 1.04, in 1906. Mathewson (NY) followed with a 1.14 ERA, in 1909. The best ERA by an AL hurler belongs to Boston’s Dutch Leonard, 1.01, in 1914. The most strikeouts achieved in a year by any pitcher in either league were by Philadelphia’s Rube Waddell, 349, in 1904.

Fast forward now to 2011, the year that the Cardinals took the 100+ year-old World Series away from the Texas Rangers, in seven games. It was a year proving, like most years in baseball since the late 1800’s, how difficult it is to surpass records established by the great players of an earlier era, for instance, the highest NL batting average achieved in 2011 was .337, developed by Jose Reyes, N.Y. Mets, and the most 2011 home runs from a NL batter came from Matt Kemp of the L.A. Dodgers, 39, then by Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder and STL’s Albert Pujols being close with 38 and 37 respectively.

The highest 2011 AL batting average belonged to Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera, .344, and the best number of AL home runs evolved from Toronto’s Jose Bautista, 43. Kemp also produced the most RBI’s in 2011, 126. And, the most hits achieved in 2011 were by the Texas Rangers Mike Young and by Boston’s Adrian Gonzalez, each with 213. Indicative of who may be the better hitters in 2012, and best contributors for runs for their teams, are the On Base Percentages achieved by Cincinnati’s Joey Votto, .416, Fielder, .415, STL’s Lance Berkman, .412, and Kemp’s .399 .  .  .  2011’s best pitcher-ERA’s belonged to the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, 2.28, and to Detroit’s Justin Verlander, 2.40. Kershaw won the most games in 2011---21, as did Arizona’s Ian Kennedy. Verlander led the AL in games won during 2011---24.

Look now, if you will, to a ball club reflective of most MLB teams above the margin and that is a possible playoff contender for 2012---the Colorado Rockies, which, in 2011, finished poorly, yet when it comes to team batting average, to hits, to RBI’s, home runs, OBP and slugging percentage, the Rockies are definitely in the top half of the NL’s 16 teams, in fact, they are, “across all categories,” in fourth place within the NL, and in first place within their division, the NL-West. Too, the Rockies team batting average, .258, is fourth highest in the NL. While the 2011 WS and NL championship team produced 765 runs, the Rockies provided 735, along with the Cincinnati Reds the most of any NL team back of the WS Cards.

The Rockies were also number two in the NL regarding number of hits provided in 2011, 1,477, behind STL’s 1,513. And, the Rockies had one more home run than the Cards produced in 2011---163. But, the irony of baseball is that which belongs to most team sports: the number of games won remains that which keeps a franchise out front, no matter what else has happened or will happen. In baseball, wins come from avoiding “outs” and having the time, the power and skills to put “runs” on the board, which needs players with high OBP’s and lots of RBI’s, and pitchers who can maintain low ERA’s, hold hits to a minimum and develop the strikeouts that keep the opposition from scoring (number of strikeouts isn’t as important as when they happen, e.g., a strikeout when the other team has loaded the bases and it’s a three-and-two count).

Well, the 2011 figures imply that the Rockies can reconfigure for more wins, as do the roster changes, and that playoff contention is possible. Here’s what the lineup could look like for the Rockies as the new season commences: Lead-off batter, CF Dexter Fowler, followed by 2B Marco Scutaro (newcomer), then by LF Carlos Gonzalez; SS Troy Tulowitzki; 1B Todd Helton; RF Michael Cuddyer (new); C Ramon Hernandez (newcomer); 3B Casey Blake (new). Is there power here? Gonzalez hit 26 home runs in 2011, plus 54 RBI’s. Tulowitzki delivered 30 home runs and 105 RBI’s, Cuddyer, 20 home runs and 70 RBI’s, Helton 14 home runs and 69 RBI’s, and then there’s the still powerful Jason Giambi, 13 home runs and 32 RBI’s as a DH in 2011.

As for the Rockies pitching staff, last year’s best ERA belonged to right hand starter, Jhoulys Chacin---3.62, and to a right hand reliever who in 2012 will be the Rockies primary closer, Rafael Betancourt---2.89. The left hand starter to be counted on will be rookie, Drew Pomeranz. Neither of these pitchers need to be a Kershaw or Verlander, but they’ll have to uptick their skills in order to keep the Rockies from giving back runs that the team can accrue in their half-innings.

     

END/ml

ON ASSIGNMENT---NEXT POSTING WILL BE TUESDAY, APRIL 10---mlR

MLB:  “at the Beginning;” 2011 comparsions; 2012 & The Colorado Rockies.       

For more sports analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

                “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of every week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

            SPECIAL OLYMPICS SUMMER GAMES, COLORADO: for more information: specialolympicsco.org

MLB:       NO-one is absolutely certain who invented the game as we know it today, or when it showed up as America’s gift to itself, but there’s evidence that it started long before the Civil War, sometime in the mid-1820’s, and that it evolved from a game played other side of the Atlantic by Brits who wanted something other than kicking a leather ball up, down and sideways across a muddy field. There’s a letter from famous American writer, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, written to his father, that underscores the early existence of the game, and there’s later evidence of early baseball from a rule book established by “The New York Knickerbockers Base Ball Club,” published in 1848. By the time baseball greats Ty Cobb (Detroit), Babe Ruth (NYY), Lou Gehrig (NYY), Rogers Hornsby (STL), Honus Wagner (Pitts), Christy Mathewson (NYG) and Grover Alexander (Phila) were playing the game in the first half of the 20^th Century, it had been around as a professional activity for more than twice the age of the oldest among them.

More than a dozen players inducted into baseball’s Hall of Fame began their careers in the 1800’s, and more than a dozen no-hit games were recorded by 1900 (one of the earlier official statistics). Another early-on statistic is this: the longest hitting streak that Joe DiMaggio (NYY) surpassed with his 56 straight hits in 1941 belonged to Willie Keeler (Baltimore), who punched out 44 in 1897. Too, unassisted triple plays have been 100 years apart, the first in 1909, the last in 2009 by Philadelphia against a New York Mets batter.

In the National League, no hitter has achieved an annual batting average higher than Hornsby’s .424, as far back as 1924, with the highest in the American League belonging to Nap Lajoie (Phila), 422, achieved in 1901, with Cobb being close with .420, earned in 1911 (Cobb is the only batter in MLB history to lead his league in batting average for 11 years, five of them straight, 1911-1915.)

In 1931, Gehrig produced the most RBI’s ever for a given year, 184. Discounting what batters have accomplished while using performance enhancement drugs, the most home runs in a single year were delivered by Roger Maris (NYY), 61, in 1961, surpassing Ruth’s 1921 achievement---59, the longest held home run record. To date, less than 20 hitters have provided more than 50 home runs per year.  .  .  And, the most games won by a pitcher during a single season were by Washington D.C.’s Walter Johnson, 36, in 1913, and the best ERA achieved by a NL pitcher for a given year belongs to Mordecai "Three Fingers" Brown (he had missing fingers from an accident), 1.04, in 1906. Mathewson followed with a 1.14 ERA, in 1909. The best ERA by an AL hurler belongs to Boston’s Dutch Leonard, 1.01, in 1914. The most strikeouts achieved in a year by any pitcher in either league were by Philadelphia’s Rube Waddell, 349, in 1904.

Fast forward now to 2011, the year that the Cardinals took the 100+ year-old World Series away from the Texas Rangers, in seven games. It was a year proving, like most years in baseball since the late 1800’s, how difficult it is to surpass records established by the great players of an earlier era, for instance, the highest NL batting average achieved in 2011 was .337, developed by Jose Reyes, N.Y. Mets, and the most 2011 home runs from a NL batter came from Matt Kemp of the L.A. Dodgers, 39, then by Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder and STL’s Albert Pujols being close with 38 and 37 respectively.

The highest 2011 AL batting average belonged to Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera, .344, and the best number of AL home runs evolved from Toronto’s Jose Bautista, 43. Kemp also produced the most RBI’s in 2011, 126. And, the most hits achieved in 2011 were by the Texas Rangers Mike Young and by Boston’s Adrian Gonzalez, each with 213. Indicative of who may be the better hitters in 2012, and best contributors for runs for their teams, are the On Base Percentages achieved by Cincinnati’s Joey Votto, .416, Fielder, .415, STL’s Lance Berkman, .412, and Kemp’s .399 .  .  .  2011’s best pitcher-ERA’s belonged to the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, 2.28, and to Detroit’s Justin Verlander, 2.40. Kershaw won the most games in 2011---21, as did Arizona’s Ian Kennedy. Verlander led the AL in games won during 2011---24.

Look now, if you will, to a ball club reflective of most MLB teams above the margin and that is a possible playoff contender for 2012---the Colorado Rockies, which, in 2011, finished poorly, yet when it comes to team batting average, to hits, to RBI’s, home runs, OBP and slugging percentage, the Rockies are definitely in the top half of the NL’s 16 teams, in fact, they are, “across all categories,” in fourth place within the NL, and in first place within their division, the NL-West. Too, the Rockies team batting average, .258, is fourth highest in the NL. While the 2011 WS and NL championship team produced 765 runs, the Rockies provided 735, along with the Cincinnati Reds the most of any NL team back of the WS Cards.

The Rockies were also number two in the NL regarding number of hits provided in 2011, 1,477, behind STL’s 1,513. And, the Rockies had one more home run than the Cards produced in 2011---163. But, the irony of baseball is that which belongs to most team sports: the number of games won remains that which keeps a franchise out front, no matter what else has happened or will happen. In baseball, wins come from avoiding “outs” and having the time, the power and skills to put “runs” on the board, which needs players with high OBP’s and lots of RBI’s, and pitchers who can maintain low ERA’s, hold hits to a minimum and develop the strikeouts that keep the opposition from scoring (number of strikeouts isn’t as important as when they happen, e.g., a strikeout when the other team has loaded the bases and it’s a three-and-two count).

Well, the 2011 figures imply that the Rockies can reconfigure for more wins, as do the roster changes, and that playoff contention is possible. Here’s what the lineup could look like for the Rockies as the new season commences: Lead-off batter, CF Dexter Fowler, followed by 2B Marco Scutaro (newcomer), then by LF Carlos Gonzalez; SS Troy Tulowitzki; 1B Todd Helton; RF Michael Cuddyer (new); C Ramon Hernandez (newcomer); 3B Casey Blake (new). Is there power here? Gonzalez hit 26 home runs in 2011, plus 54 RBI’s. Tulowitzki delivered 30 home runs and 105 RBI’s, Cuddyer, 20 home runs and 70 RBI’s, Helton 14 home runs and 69 RBI’s, and then there’s the still powerful Jason Giambi, 13 home runs and 32 RBI’s as a DH in 2011.

As for the Rockies pitching staff, last year’s best ERA belonged to right hand starter, Jhoulys Chacin---3.62, and to a right hand reliever who in 2012 will be the Rockies primary closer, Rafael Betancourt---2.89. The left hand starter to be counted on will be rookie, Drew Pomeranz. Neither of these pitchers need to be a Kershaw or Verlander, but they’ll have to uptick their skills in order to keep the Rockies from giving back runs that the team can accrue in their half-innings.

     

END/ml

NBA: DENVER NUGGETS, FINAL STRETCH // MLB: COLORADO ROCKIES, THE INITIAL SERIES.

 For more sports analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

                “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of every week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

            SPECIAL OLYMPICS SUMMER GAMES, COLORADO: for more information: specialolympicsco.org

NBA:   WERE the current NBA season to end this week, there’d be reasons for analysts and fans to label the Denver Nuggets a better professional basketball team than most others. Since the NBA season began last year, the Nuggets have been a winning team, usually second in the NBA Western Conference’s Northwest Division behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, scoring 100 or more points in almost every won game, while achieving a total points per game average that’s been around four points higher than the total ppg averages of nearly all teams that the Nuggets have confronted since early January.

Also, eight of the Nuggets usual starters and reserve have been averaging double digit ppg. Too, the Nuggets have maintained a field goal percentage higher than .465 and high totals of assists and steals, more than 1,025 and 40 respectively. Presently, the Nuggets are 27-23, tied with Houston for eighth place in the Western Conference and holding third place in its division behind the Utah Jazz, also 27-23 (The Nuggets are back of the Jazz for having a 5-5 record for its last 10 games versus Utah’s 8-2 record.).

But it’s almost April, and there are 16 games left to play before the playoffs. Moreover, the Nuggets have lost too many of its recent away from home contests, largely due to “defense posturing,” which continues to allow opposing teams to score higher than they in three digits, for example, the trouncing that the Nuggets took on Friday from the Jazz, losing 121-102. In those and other recent away from home games, the Nuggets have averaged an allowance of more than 112 points to opponents, raising the team’s overall season allowance above the 102 ppg that existed throughout February and into mid-March.

Right now, with Nene gone, with players returning from injuries, and with new acquisitions, there’s need of a period of adjustment regarding defense applications. Yet the Nuggets have proved to be a most coachable team, good at finding solutions, at applying fixes over a short period of time, to wit: taking down the Chicago Bulls on Monday, 108-91.

In other words, perfecting the big D “ASAP” is an imperative if the Nuggets are to stay in contention for post-season play.  

Only three of the Nuggets 16 games left will be against Northwest Division teams, two versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, the other vs. Oklahoma City. Of these two, Minnesota has a weaker record than the Nuggets, 24-26. Nine of the 16 are against Western Conference teams, two of the nine having better records than the Nuggets and that are considered more formidable than the Denver franchise---the Los Angeles Lakers, now 30-19, and the L.A. Clippers, 28-21. The remaining seven games include five vs. franchises that are close to par with the Nuggets, two vs. teams that have continued to perform poorly---the New Orleans Hornets (12-37), and the Golden State Warriors (20-27). Only one of the 16 challenges will be against an Eastern Conference team, the Orlando Magic, now 32-18.

So, if we go by the numbers (not always accurate), the Nuggets can, with an improved defense, have a fair chance of winning nine of its remaining 16 games, enabling a winning record at this season’s finish line, which can guarantee playoff contention for the Nuggets providing, of course, that the Utah Jazz and the two other Northwest Division teams that are now back of the Nuggets fail to accrue winning streaks that would push the Nuggets lower than the Denver team is today.

*   *   *

MLB:     FROM Opening Day of the 2012 MLB season until May 3, there will be eight three-game series testing the Colorado Rockies strength and versatility, a package that can indicate how the team may fare by late September, in that 12 of the games will be against clubs in its own division, the National League-West---the San Francisco Giants, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Moreover, four of the eight series will occur away from home---versus (sequentially) the Houston Astros, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Mets.    

Baseball watchers assuming that the Rockies and the above-cited franchises will NOT be very different in skill-sets and power than they were last year, can argue that the Diamondbacks, which led the NL-W, 94-68, and the Giants, which followed in second place at 86-76, will be the tougher April/early May division challenges for the Rockies, and they could add that the Padres, which finished last in the NL-W, 71-91, will be the weakest challenge, with the Dodgers somewhere in the numbers between the Rockies and the Padres.

As for the remaining April/early May series, aforementioned advocates of the status quo might bet that the Rockies will lose its series vs. the Brewers, which won the league’s Central Division last year, finishing 57-24, but could dominate the Astros, the Pirates and the Mets, which had lower home wins than the 38 that the Rockies had last year---31, 36 and 34 respectively, though the Rockies couldn’t muster more than 35 road wins in 2011.  

BUT---those baseball observers who assume that the several line-up and pitching staff changes and also the improvements shown at spring training will make a big difference, they are citing that the Giants will be the top NL-West team in April and thereafter, winning three from the Rockies, April 9-12, adding that the Diamondbacks could win two of three from the Rockies, and that the Dodgers will do the same---all this from some rotation and bull pen advantages over the Rockies, and from belief that the Rockies new line-up and its rotation will need more than a month even after spring training to gather momentum. Also, these observers that cite change and improvements as valid factors for prediction, they have argued that the Rockies could prevent sweeps during most of the season’s first eight series and sweep the Padres, therefore maintain third place in the NL-W, an enhanced possibility if the Giants, DB’s and Dodgers lose enough to other franchises.

Yet a truism in baseball is that while few teams are the same year after year, few match the expectations that changes, improvements and spring training accomplishments seem to set up prior to Opening Day every year.   For instance, it was predicted before and during April of last year that the team to beat would be the Rockies, and that the Colorado franchise would be a World Series contender. Instead, the Rockies finished the season poorly, 73-89.

What’s predictable about baseball is that it’s usually unpredictable before a significant number of games can occur, and even then it’s hard to pin down which team will prevail over others. No-one thought as late as mid-summer of last year that the St. Louis Cardinals could reach the post-season, whip the Texas Rangers and become World Series champions. It shouldn’t surprise anyone, then, if the Rockies see the four other teams in its division off to a bad start, Colorado therefore leading the pack by May 4.

The point attempted here is that MLB predictions before more than 20 season games are underway are usually fodder for the dumpster. So---if you like making rational predictions about the Rockies, or you are a betting person, it’s probably best that you stay inactive in those pursuits until after the Rockies eight April/early May series comprising 24 games.

END  

NFL:  Next Chapter, “the Book of Tebow”  

 For more sports analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

                “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of every week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

            SPECIAL OLYMPICS SUMMER GAMES, COLORADO: for more information: specialolympicsco.org

NFL:    NO need for tears, it isn’t to Siberia. The nationally popular NFL quarterback, Tim Tebow, is headed from Denver for the world’s most popular of heavily populated regions, metro-New York City, to play for the New York Jets.

The Big Apple, or whatever you want to call it, is possibly the biggest sports market in American history, though it’s where former Denver Nuggets star forward, Carmelo Anthony, hasn’t found his full mojo yet, and from where Denver native and former Nuggets player, Chauncey Billups, was traded “happily” to the L.A. Clippers within less than a year as a Knicks guard.

New York is also where the 2012 Super Bowl winner and MVP, N.Y. Giants Eli Manning, brother of the man who replaced Tebow in Denver, can taunt anyone afield, and that includes current primary Jets quarterback, Mark Sanchez. New York is also where fans are more fickle than a 1950’s movie version of a homecoming queen, and where fans characterize themselves as too sophisticated for affirmative nods when the extremely talented quarterback kneels and talks to God.

Still, New York City loves football as much as it loves the Yankees, the Mets, chomping down on toasted bagels and cream cheese + smoked salmon while reading the sports pages of the New York Times and the Daily News, and Nathan’s hot dogs at either ballpark and at Madison Square Garden (with sauerkraut).

So---Tebow’s headed for a big town that has a big appetite for sports, which means high expectations for victory and for its athletes to be playing “to the hilt.” Even Jeter gets jeered, even Joe Namath got booed in NYC.

For Tebow, the trade to New York may hold more promise than years of only “sideline,” of his having to be dude number two, or three, a deputy chief of the long bench, sitting by the Gatorade barrel. For example, Sanchez had a weak 2011 season, the Jets were behind the competency-curve compared with its main rivals, the New York Giants and the New England Patriots. Jets head coach, Rex Ryan, is therefore being pressured New York-style by the Jets ownership and Jets fans for a winning season and a shot at the next Super Bowl, which could lead to a continuum of Jets shake-ups, leaving Tebow in the position that he found himself in last year, suddenly “a starter” when then Denver Broncos quarterback, Kyle Orton, couldn’t rise above the margins of effectiveness and was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs. Tebow soon helped pull the Broncos up from a losing record to a playoff slot. There’s no reason to think that Tebow couldn’t turn matters around for the Jets, should a situation similar to the Orton-exit occur in 2012.

Tebow should be happy with what the coming season’s Jets status-quo could be with him aboard, a Sanchez-led 9-7 or 8-8 record that couldn’t exist were Tebow less than proficient as a special situation quarterback, that is, Tebow in for Sanchez when a game is winding down, e.g., under the two minute warning and the Jets are inside the opposition’s 20, a chance for a Tebow rush or the unexpected Tebow wingshot to an outside receiver---boom! TD.

Also, envision the Jets offense needing to initiate a mid-fourth quarter attack requiring what Tebow is best at, “running the football,” even if it’s Tebow pushing the ball by himself three and four yards per play toward that first down (he’s been labeled, “natural running back.”).

Too, Tebow’s speed, strength and quick mind for “the rush” has underscored Rex Ryan thinking that he should have Tebow work the two-point conversion.

So---Tebow could be the Jets two-in-one quarterback for a number of seasons, not just a Sanchez understudy. He could be the unfailing gunslinger in for those special kill moments, a successful closer from behind, the Jets tie-breaker, once again a Sunday hero.

Yet in 2012, Sanchez could unintentionally morph into being New York’s Kyle Orton.

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NFL: PEYTON  MANNING CHOOSES THE BRONCOS

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NFL:      DURING the recent NFL season, Tim Tebow was the nation’s most popular football player, in Denver an icon-in-waiting from quarterbacking enough wins moving the Broncos into the 2011 playoffs. Now, in Denver anyway, Tebow is being upstaged by another quarterback, Peyton Manning, famous nationally for more than a decade, who chose to be a Broncos QB after being courted by several franchises.

Questions abound, e.g., why did Manning select Denver? And, what will be for the younger, and popular, Tim Tebow?

Looking at why Manning chose the Broncos, we can assume that most, if not all of his football wants and important personal needs were met by the Denver franchise, and that other teams may have offered him more in particular categories such as money or location, but they couldn’t deliver for enough of a top quarterback’s areas of concern.

More than likely, Manning’s selection-criteria included being with a team that he could help transform into a multi-year Super Bowl contender, and there’s no reason to believe that the Broncos are not potentially that organization. Specifically, Manning being older would prefer the truly supportive offense, i.e., working with receivers the likes of Broncos Eric Decker and DeMaryius Thomas, and he’d certainly covet the pass protection that he’d receive from Broncos sack-maestro, Elvis Dumervil.

Of course, the talk about Manning’s neck surgery, and that he’s to be 36 years old, will be print, radio, TV, barfly and water cooler buzz into the next NFL season, while there’s no way of knowing what the impact of the neck surgery and aging will mean for Denver’s new quarterback until evidence can be seen from stadium seats and from the couch. Meanwhile, Broncos VP for Operations + football legend, John Elway, and Broncos Head Coach, John Fox, have bet that neither issue will undo that which Manning can contribute to an NFL franchise.

Fact, and as cited here in a previous column, a Peyton Manning limited by surgery and age is still a star quarterback, a serious challenge to QB’s Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and brother Eli. In other words, the best passer in the NFL taken down some from a neck operation and from being older will remain one of the NFL’s best athletes during the 2012 season and after.

Tebow, where goest thou?  Franchise owners, general managers and head coaches reviewing film of Tebow scoring those last-minute touchdowns that lifted the Broncos from being losers to winners in 2011 will certainly be impressed, and so will owners looking at receipts from last year’s Tebow T-shirts, jerseys and jackets sold. But if these officials look at the rest of the film, at Tebow’s flubs and his just-above-the-margin passing game, they will think twice before deciding to bid for him.

If a decision about the future is up to Tebow, he’ll surely wonder where he could be a “starter” with the support needed for his run-the-ball skills, and still be able to develop deeper and more accurate throws, however to receivers who can adjust quickly and effectively as he transforms into being one of the league’s better passers.

Also, Tebow would be advised to consider reserve QB-ing for the Broncos, a drop in status and popularity but means by which to learn from two masters, Elway and Manning.    

From Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn, then on to Tebow and now Manning, in Denver there’s been a long drama titled, “the QB,” a city where fans and a lot of Broncos team-members are hoping that with Manning aboard no-one will be saying next December, “new guy, but the story has stayed the same, that happy ending still out of reach.”

END/ml