Tuesday, November 12, 2013
NFL---WEEK 10, ANALYSIS; BRONCOS DEFEAT OF THE CHARGERS, NEXT WEEK BRONCOS VS. THE CHIEFS // NBA---ESCAPING THE HERD.
sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // NFL: WEEK 10, ANALYSIS; BRONCOS DEFEAT OF THE CHARGERS, NEXT WEEK VS. THE CHIEFS // NBA---ESCAPING THE HERD . . . / / . . . NFL---EXCEPT for the now 5-4 Green Bay Packers falling from first to third position within the NFL National Conference North on Sunday, the first and second position teams within the seven other NFL divisions haven’t budged from their primacy, some adding another win, others maintaining the number of wins they entered NFL-2013’s Week 10 with, for example, the American Conference West’s Week 10/Bye-attained Kansas City Chiefs are still 9-0, while the AC West’s second place Denver Broncos lifted to 8-1, having defeated the San Diego Chargers, 28-20, on Sunday. The AC East’s leading team, the New England Patriots, are still 7-2, behind them the still 5-4 New York Jets, and the AC North’s 6-4 Cincinnati Bengals have remained atop the 4-5 Cleveland Browns, and the AC South’s 6-3 Indianapolis Colts have stayed above the 4-5 Tennessee Titans. Too, the NC West’s 9-1 Seattle Seahawks have continued as a division and conference leading franchise, second within the entire league behind the Chiefs, having defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 33-10, on Sunday. Behind the Seahawks (no change from Week 9) are the 6-3 San Francisco 49ers, in spite of a loss on Sunday to the NC South’s 6-3 Carolina Panthers, 10-9 (Ouch!). And, though having suffered Week 10’s biggest defeat, 49-17, to the NC South’s New Orleans Saints, the NC East’s’ Dallas Cowboys are tied at five wins with the Philadelphia Eagles regarding number of victories, still in the number one position from most wins at home and against NC and division franchises. Meanwhile, directly behind the NC North’s leading team, the 6-3 Detroit Lions, are the 5-4 Chicago Bears and the 5-4 Packers. The NC South’s number one team, that’s still the Saints, now 7-2 from defeating the Cowboys, behind them the Panthers, 6-3, after that one point win vs. the 49ers. . . But, which NFL team wins a Week 10 downslide slot when compared with expectations and last season’s performance records? That has to be the AC South’s now 2-7 Houston Texans, and the NC South’s 2-7 Atlanta Falcons, each having been a 2012 high-above-the-margin team. Both are facing Week 11 from fourth place within their respective divisions. As to upswings from the bottom, during Week 10 the Jacksonville Jaguars finally won a game, defeating the Titans on Sunday, 29-27, now 1-8, and last night the NC South’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally had a win, beating the AC East’s now 4-5 Miami Dolphins, 22-19. The Buc’s are also at 1-8 today, so there’s no longer a winless NFL-2013 franchise. And, the AC North’s last place now 3-6 Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the AC East’s last place/now 3-7 Buffalo Bills on Sunday, and the NC East’s N.Y. Giants rose from last to fourth place after Sunday’s 24-20 win vs. the AC West’s last place franchise, the 3-6 Oakland Raiders. The NC North’s last place currently 2-7 Minnesota Vikings also accrued a victory during Week 10, having beaten the NC East’s now 3-6 Washington Redskins, 34-27. But there’s no ultra division lead within the NFL today, best being the Seahawk’s three wins over the 49ers, while within the full NC the Seahawks are ahead of the Saints by just two wins. Within the AC, the leading conference team, the Chiefs, they are ahead of the Broncos by only one win, and the Patriots are but one conference win behind the Broncos. . . So, where’s the odd disparity now that Week 10 has drifted away? It’s the NC West’s Arizona Cardinals at third place with its five wins, and the NC North’s Packers at third with their five wins, while a third franchise, the Dallas Cowboys, are a division leading franchise from the same number of wins. And---of the 32 NFL teams, 16 will be entering Week 11 still below the margin, that is, beneath .500, with the AC hosting 11 of these teams . . . // . . . BRONCOS, CHARGERS---THE now 4-5 San Diego Chargers lost to the 8-1 Denver Broncos on Sunday, 28-20, and so have only half the number of wins accrued by the broncos during this NFL season, largely from the Broncos having the superior offense, led by record-breaking QB, Peyton Manning. As Week 10 approached and the two teams would face off on Sunday, the Chargers were quite aware that if the Broncos defense allowed them 20 or more points by mid-fourth quarter, the Manning-led offense would likely make up for the allowed numbers; it would probably offset the defense giveaway with a touchdown or two ahead of the Chargers, the emphasis within each Broncos drive forward being a QB Manning and receiver pass/catch connectivity that is near-perfection. What must the weaker team do, then, when the primary reason behind the Broncos 8-1 record has been Manning’s mostly pass perfection and an ability of his preferred receivers to catch the football and run for that TD. One option is from Football101: Have defenders always between the football and the Broncos WR’s, TE’s, RB’s. A second option is this: If you can’t interfere with what’s thrown to Broncos receivers Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Wexler, and handed off to RB Knowshon Moreno, then dismantle the QB to where his functionality is lowered significantly. If desperate enough, a team might think, “Rip the QB apart, get dirty if we have to,” and it seemed that way on Sunday when a Chargers defender went for Manning’s already weakened ankle and Manning came up limping. Implied here is that the only way for the Broncos to lose during Weeks 11 through 16 is for the Broncos defense to U-turn from steady game-by-game improvements, and from opposing teams being able to weaken the Broncos offense by “crushing” Manning, not just sacking the QB but “hurting, injuring, Benching” the QB, forcing a replacement QB on to the field. Signaled, of course, is that the Broncos “pass protection” has to “step up,” protect its QB as if he were the President and they the Secret Service, “take a bullet for him.” Yet QB Manning isn’t fragile, he’s arguably the active NFL QB closest to indestructibility, a fact likely to radiate throughout each of the Broncos next three games, each game pivotal within a Broncos desired spiral upward for best post-season positioning, i.e., versus the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs (November 17 & December 1), and vs. the 7-2 New England Patriots (Nov. 24). Both teams are adept at executing the more punishing “pass rush,” in ways that can hurt and dismantle but cannot be viewed as crossing over into illegality, not in the way that the Chargers defender went snake-like for Manning’s ankle on Sunday, thus maneuvers by the Chiefs and Patriots that can repeat more easily than could that Chargers bad and ugly shot. Countering any belief that Manning can be weakened significantly, maybe undone, by, say the Chiefs during Week 11, is that after Manning’s ankle started going bad from actions during Week 6 vs. the Indianapolis Colts, the Broncos QB managed to throw against the Chargers for four TD passes and accrue more than 300 passing yards, one of the TD’s occurring after the Chargers went for that sore ankle. Never mind that the Chiefs hold the 2013 record for most season sacks to date, because such when related to a QB who can (a) Maximize number of points gained per minute of ball possession, and (b) Do that while experiencing sacks and even some fumbles, it just isn’t significant enough for consistent and sufficient blitzing of Manning and his first down hunt + end zone efficient offense. The Chiefs will be hoping for a Broncos defense that can deliver to it the lion’s share of allowable possession minutes for end zone occupation and some points, meanwhile its defense gunning for Manning with the martial arts/black belt-10th degree intensity seen in Hong Kong fight movies. . . // . . . NBA---THE NBA team that has left the stall and raced ahead of all others with nearly one tenth of the 82-game NBA regular season almost gone, that’s the Indian Pacers, eight wins, no losses, leading the NBA and the NBA East by four wins and the NBA East’s Central Division by five wins above the 3-3 Chicago Bulls. Next best in the NBA today, that’s the Western Conference Southwest’s San Antonio Spurs, seven wins, one loss, leading the WC by two wins above the WC Northwest’s 5-1 Oklahoma City Thunder, the 5-2 Minnesota Timberwolves and 5-2 Portland Trail Blazers, plus the WC Southwest’s 5-3 Houston Rockets and WC Pacific Division’s 5-2 Phoenix Suns. Still in sad sack mode, that’s the Utah Jazz, the only NBA franchise that’s winless as of today---0-8. Surprisingly, the Memphis Grizzlies haven’t been the snap, crackle or pop of last season yet; they are 3-4 and last within the WC Southwest. Also back of the grid unexpectedly are the EC Atlantic’s New York Knicks and the Brooklyn Nets, both at 2-4, the WC Northwest’s Denver Nuggets, also 2-4, and the WC Pacific’s 2-2 Los Angeles Lakers. END/ml.
Friday, November 8, 2013
NFL: WEEK 10, EIGHT BRIDGES TO CROSS; DENVER BRONCOS, SAN DIEGO CHARGERS.
sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner... // NFL: WEEK 10, EIGHT BRIDGES TO CROSS; BRONCOS, CHARGERS...// NFL---WEEK 10 of NFL-2013 has delayed one of the league’s eight division leading teams from being first to achieve double-digit wins. That’s the American Conference West’s still undefeated 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs, which will be at Bye Week until Sunday, November 17, while another franchise, the current 8-1 National Conference West’s 8-1 Seattle Seahawks, could surpass a season’s halfway mark of eight wins on Sunday, therefore staying second best in the league behind the Chiefs and also first within the NFL’s National Conference, guaranteeing a .500 percentage should the Seahawks lose every one of its games Week 11 through Week 16. Also, Week 10 is Bye Week for the American Conference East’s first place now 7-2 New England Patriots, to which there won’t be a change upward in that the AC East's second place 5-4 N.Y. Jets are also in Bye Week. Meanwhile, during Week 10, the NFL’s remaining five division leading teams could gain leads of two or more wins over their respective second place franchises---AC North’s 6-2 Cincinnati Bengals, AC South’s 6-2 Indianapolis Colts, the NC East’s 5-4 Dallas Cowboys, the NC North’s 5-2 Green Bay Packers, the NC South’s 6-2 New Orleans Saints. But could all this happen easily for the leading teams that will be active during Week 10? Let’s review---SEAHAWKS: This team will be facing the NC South’s fourth place 2-6 Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, the win/loss records of each suggesting a Seahawks win. However, the Falcons haven’t failed to leave a game this year without putting up double-digit points, and only one of its losses has been a blowout, the team’s 32-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers, Week 9. Note that against top team, the AC East’s N.E. Patriots, during Week 4, the Falcons lost by seven points, 30-23. Our guess is that the Falcons will make the afternoon difficult for the Seahawks, yet will probably lose by a TD . . . BENGALS: This AC North franchise knows that a loss on Sunday to the same division’s Baltimore Ravens, now 3-5, will mean recovery for a Ravens shot at the post-season, and that a Bengals versus Baltimore win could keep the 4-5 Cleveland Browns in second place and ahead of the Ravens, aided by the Browns also being at Bye during Week 10. A proper take, then, is Bengals ahead at endgame on Sunday by only three . . . COLTS: Win/loss records say that the Colts will smother the St. Louis Rams during Week 10. The Rams lost three in a row (Weeks 2 through 5) to teams of less power and skill, and three in a row Weeks 7 through 9, giving up 72 points and accruing only 45 (strangely, it’s best fight being a loss to the Seahawks during Week 8, 14-9). . . COWBOYS: Up against the Saints on Sunday, the Cowboys could see trouble, lose and so enter Week 11 tied with the now NC East’s 4-5 Philadelphia Eagles, instead of staying at first place. This year, the Saints losses have totaled only 56 points, and were of games within which the Saints put up 27 and 20 points respectively. Even so, the Cowboys losses have also been double-digit each, and versus the 7-1 Denver Broncos the Cowboys managed to put up 48 points, losing by only three. A sensible pick is Cowboys losing by seven. . . PACKERS: Having lost to the Chicago Bears on Thursday night, the Packers, the Detroit Lions and the Bears are now tied at first place, NC North, each at 5-3. Surely this will change from Sunday’s Lions versus Bears match. A fair guess is that either can win but probably by no more than six. . . // . . . DENVER BRONCOS, SAN DIEGO CHARGERS---FROM games played during Weeks 1 through 8 (including Bye Week), the Broncos gave up 197 points to opposing teams, while during the same period the Chargers gave up fewer points to opponents, 147. Yet the Broncos are today 7-1, the Chargers, 4-4. Within this, the Chargers dropped only nine points to the Indianapolis Colts, a division leading franchise (Week 6). During Week 7, the Broncos lost to the Colts, 39-33. Implied here is that a Chargers defense can keep a lid on the Broncos QB Peyton Manning-led offense, maybe preventing the Broncos offense from scoring as many or more points than given away to the Chargers by the Broncos defense. However, for the seven games cited here, the Chargers offense provided a total of 168 points while the Broncos offense delivered 298 points for the same number of challenges, suggesting multiple Broncos touchdowns vs. the Chargers, enough to neutralize whatever is given away by the Broncos defense. Too, Chargers QB Phillip Rivers pass completion total is only 10 fewer than that accrued Broncos QB Manning, and of fewer attempts than Manning’s. If Rivers could maintain this but with completions resulting in a high rate of TD’s, the Chargers could prevent a humiliating loss to the Broncos. Six of Rivers receivers can boast of only 17 TD’s this season, while six of Manning’s receivers have accumulated 29 TD’s. As for rushing, the Chargers rushes have translated into only three TD’s to date; the Broncos rushes, 11 TD’s. It seems, then, that on Sunday the Broncos offense will empower a Broncos win, but without a runaway victory---an informed pick is Broncos 30, Chargers 24. END/ml
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
NFL: APPROACHING WEEK 10; SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, DENVER BRONCOS // NBA---EARLY FROM THE GATE.
sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // NFL: APPROACHING WEEK 10; SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, DENVER BRONCOS // NBA---EARLY FROM THE GATE . . . NFL---COMING up on Week 10, three of the NFL’s 2013 eight division last place franchises have but one or zero wins, the National Conference East’s 1-7 Minnesota Vikings, the 0-8 American Conference South’s Jacksonville Jaguars, the NC South’s 0-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The remaining back-of-the-grid teams are the AC West’s 3-5 Oakland Raiders, the AC East’s 3-6 Buffalo Bills, the AC North’s 2-6 Pittsburgh Steelers, NC West’s 3-6 St. Louis Rams and the NC East’s 2-6 New York Giants. Combined, that’s 66 games resulting in but 14 wins and an incredible number of losses, 52, compared with the eight division first place teams having accrued 52 wins and just 16 losses from 68 games played. Evident from this is a wide gap between the NFL’s Haves and Have-nots, between the exceptionally gifted organizations and those lacking what it takes to move far forward from a start zone. Were number of combined wins converted to number of weeks within the current season, the eight bottom-of-the pile NFL franchises would still be at infancy, Week 2, worst of surprises being the N.Y. Giants inability to recapture past performance skills. The big surprise within the eight division leading pack is, of course, the undefeated AC West’s Kansas City Chiefs, 9-0 after defeating the Bills on Sunday, 23-13. But at Week 10, no AC division first place team has better than a two game lead over a next-in-line franchise. Within the NC East, the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys can sense the 4-5 Philadelphia Eagles at their heels, and within the NC North the number one 5-2 Green Bay Packers can hear grunts from the 5-3 Detroit Lions, while the NC South’s numero uno 6-2 New Orleans Saints feel the 5-3 Carolina Panthers directly behind them. All of this said, it’s the nine franchises that are roughly in the middle of the total number of NFL teams, that is, the nine teams ranging from 5-3 to 4-3, they keep the entire league’s win/loss ratio from tilting greatly to either the Have or Have-not side, implying that the 2013 NFL is, on average, still a mostly fair and just enterprise. Can any of this change dramatically? Starting on Thursday, the 1-7 Vikings will have to defeat the NC East’s 3-5 Washington Redskins for that to seem possible.So---for Week 10’s possible Sunday results, check with us on Friday, November 8 (We had it right last week re. the lion’s share of picks). . . // . . . BRONCOS, CHARGERS---BY losing to the Washington Redskins 30-24 on Sunday, November 3, the American Conference West’s San Diego Chargers dropped from getting close to being a .600 team, falling to 4-4/.500, the margin that separates winning franchises from the losers. On Sunday last, the Denver Broncos were in Bye with a 7-1/.875 record after defeating the now 3-5/.375 Redskins during Week 8, October 27. This Sunday, the Broncos and Chargers will face off, for the Broncos a second game of the 2013 season versus a team inside its division, the AC West, a most important challenge for the Broncos, in that a win against the Chargers would lift them to an 8-1 record, just one win behind the AC West’s leading franchise, the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs, a team in Bye for Week 10, which the Broncos will face during Week 11 and again during Week 13. That first AC West win for the Broncos was against the now 3-5 Oakland Raiders, Week 3. If the Raiders beat the N.Y. Giants this Sunday and the Chargers lose to the Broncos, the latter will be a last place AC West franchise tied with the former, each at 4-5 as Week 11 begins. For the Chargers, then, a Week 10 vs. Broncos win can be insurance against being its division’s bottom-feeder. But given the Broncos 7-1 record, and what’s been seen of the Broncos offense since Week 1 of the 2013 season, and of the Broncos defense of the past four Broncos games, the Chargers need to be praying for a miracle. More on this within this Friday’s posting. . . // . . . NBA---THE first few yards of anything out of a breech is a poor space for determining future outcomes, but surprises do give hope that the uncertainties, the lack of predictabilities in a sport, will be as interesting to observe as a movie or TV drama filled with suspense. As of yesterday, only two of the six high-end winning NBA teams of the past season are leading a conference division, the Eastern Conference Southeast Division’s 2-2 Miami Heat and the EC Central Division’s 3-0 Indiana Pacers, while of the six division leading NBA franchises four had remained undefeated, the Western Conference Northwest Division’s 3-0 Minnesota Timberwolves, the WC Southwest’s 3-0 Houston Rockets, the EC Atlantic’s 3-0 Philadelphia 76ers and the EC central’s 3-0 Indiana Pacers. And of teams expected to be snapping, crackling and popping from day one of the new season, three are winless as of yesterday morning, the WC Northwest’s 0-2 Denver Nuggets and 0-3 Utah Jazz and the EC Atlantic’s 0-3 Boston Celtics, joining the 0-3 Washington Wizards. Surprisingly, the 2-1 Oklahoma City Thunder were third yesterday within the WC Northwest, while the 2-2 Los Angeles Lakers were fourth within the WC’s Pacific Division, and the 1-2 Brooklyn Nets fourth inside the EC’s Atlantic Division. . . END/ml.
Friday, November 1, 2013
NFL: NINE DOWN, SEVEN TO GO // NBA-2013/14: EXPECTATIONS, QUESTIONS // MLB: WORLD SERIES-2013, SUMMATION & AN OVERARCHING LESSON
SPORTS NOTEBOOK // sports-notebook.blogspot.com // FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: 9 Down, 7 To Go // NBA-2013/14: Expectations, Questions // MLB: World Series-2013, Summation & An Overarching Lesson. . . // . . . NFL---NO matter the professional team sport, a franchise not in a leading position at the halfway mark of a season usually changes its goals, objectives, strategy and tactics, often under conditions making change quite difficult, for example, brutal scheduling and the season’s leading franchises having high end skills + power hard to match. The NFL franchise that at Week 1 had a Super Bowl appearance in mind and at Week 9 is at 2-6 like today’s National Conference East’s New York Giants, it lowers the Week 16 expectation-dial to 6-10 or 8-8, while an 0-8 team, like the American Conference South’s Jacksonville Jaguars, aims for that first win and dreams about 8-8 if players and coaches still believe in miracles (Why not? Last night, the AC East’s then 3-4 Miami Dolphins defeated the AC North’s 6-2 Cincinnati Bengals, even if close--22-20). But franchises such as the AC West’s 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs and 7-1 Denver Broncos can today still envision post-season slots with ease, one or the other team going to the Super Bowl. So, too, are other AC and NC division leading teams still of Super Bowl measure at Week 9, that is, the Bengals, the AC East’s 6-2 New England Patriots, the AC South’s 5-2 Indianapolis Colts and the NC South’s 6-1 New Orleans Saints, these four being division leading franchises with two or more wins ahead of respective second place teams. Yet keeping their post-season hopes high will from Week 9 on be more difficult for division leading teams such as the NC West’s six-wins-apiece Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, and for the NC East’s number one franchise, the 4-4 Dallas Cowboys, a team sensing the 3-5 Philadelphia Eagles at its heels, and for the NC North’s five-wins-each Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Consequently, and probably adjusting sights during Week 9 for a 9-7 or 8-8 finish, is “the rest of the NFL pack, more than a dozen teams hoping for miracles” . . . Probably in store at the top for the NFL at Week 9 is more of the same, for instance, it’s likely that the Chiefs will be 9-0 after Sunday’s game versus. the AC East’s last place 3-5 Buffalo Bills, and that the Patriots will be 7-2 after its bout with the AC North’s bottom franchise, the 2-5 Pittsburgh Steelers. Also likely on Sunday is the Colts taking down the AC South’s 2-5 Houston Texans. And, a likely Week 9 win within the NC is the Seahawks over the NC South’s 0-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Note that the 49ers being at Bye during Week 9 gives the Seahawks a shot at a NC West lead by one game, same for the AC West’s Chiefs gaining from the Broncos being at Bye). And, the Cowboys beating the NC North’s 1-6 Minnesota Vikings on Sunday is a likelihood, but the Eagles against the AC West’s 3-4 Oakland Raiders is less so, implying a Cowboys one-game NC East lead over the Eagles. Furthermore, on Monday the Packers will meet the NC North’s 4-3 Chicago Bears, a game that could go either way, a Packers loss to the Bears preventing it from having a one-game lead over the Lions (now at Bye). As for the NC South’s Saints, by defeating the AC East’s 4-4 N.Y. Jets on Sunday the team could stay tied at number one within the entire NC with the Seahawks, or rise to the NC’s top slot should the Seahawks lose to the Buccaneers (doubtful!). . . //. . . NBA---THE NBA 2013/14 season has kicked in. The league’s 82 games ending in April, plus a long post-season into June, are as big a deal audience-wise “internationally” as is baseball or American football, with many expectations at stake unless outcomes are completely ignored. Questions abide, e.g., last season only seven NBA teams won 50 or more games, five within the Western Conference. The Eastern Conference’s Miami Heat finished ahead with 68 wins, the WC’s Oklahoma City Thunder, 65. No other franchise had more than the WC’s San Antonio Spurs wins last season, 58. Will any of this be much different during 2013/14? Also, will the two NBA teams at the bottom of the two conferences as 2012/13 ended remain there, thus the WC’s last place team, the Phoenix Suns, finishing at or below its 24 wins-56 losses, the EC’s last place Orlando Magic with but 20 wins? And, how will the nine teams with new head coaches make out, one of these being without a superstar and led by a rookie HC (Denver Nuggets, HC Brian Shaw), another by a rookie HC recently from the hardwood, the Brooklyn Nets Jason Kidd? Will the L.A. Lakers prove that age and experience-based wisdom can trump youth and speed, or will the Pacific League’s L.A. Clippers and Golden State Warriors overtake the Lakers as the West’s very best? Will four Chicago Bulls starters and a sixth man prove that point guard Derrick Rose is NOT in any way the only face of the franchise, the Bulls-entire in the way that Michael Jordan had been, or will Rose prove otherwise? Can the Brooklyn Nets, now home for super forwards Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, stay above the N.Y. Knicks from the get-go? As predicted, will the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder be neck-and-neck as conference-leading teams before and then after the All Star break? Can the WC’s Memphis Grizzlies and the EC ’s Indiana Pacers “repeat?’ Will the WC’s Utah Jazz reach anywhere near the high-end performance-continuity shown in the past? Can the Spurs forward Tim Duncan and guard Tony Parker keep on, as they had during 2012/13? Is the Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki on his way back? Will center Dwight Howard paired with guards James Harden and Jeremy Lin be the difference for the Houston Rockets? Will it matter if the Denver Nuggets cannot produce a superstar when last season they accrued the NBA's highest number of total points for a single franchise? Surely the Nuggets will win 50 or more games during 2013/14 if guard Ty Lawson jumps to 19 ppg and sustains that starting mid-November (quite possible), and if power forward Kenneth Faried and center Javale McGee can score 15-17 ppg “and NOT just from under and over the basket (also quite possible),” also if forward Danilo Gallinari returns from injury and shoots as well as during 2012/13, and if the Nuggets defense can deliver the same number of rebounds becoming fast breaks as during last season. Proven again by the Nuggets will be that teamwork minus presence of a superstar can win 50 or more games and secure a playoff berth. . . //. . . WORLD SERIES---IF you are loyal to the American League and NOT a Yankee fan, or loyal to the National League’s Colorado Rockies that were defeated by the Boston Red Sox, 4-0, during the 2007 World Series, the proper WS-2013 summation should be, “Red Sox won, Drink Up, On to the NFL season and the start of the NBA year.” However, there are observations that go beyond Sox fandom that are worth mentioning. For instance, this year the WS actually competed the two best teams in 2013 professional American baseball, and so the argument that the WS winner is definitely the better of the two and not just the better among those teams that entered the post-season, is safe, rational and has fulfilled the purpose of the WS up to its very hilt. Second, an AL team won the 2013 WS for the seventh time since year 2000, up against the NL’s seven wins since 2000, indicating parity among the MLB leagues, a good thing for baseball. Moreover, because of the near-equality that both teams shared regarding offense and defense skills, the 2013 WS consisted of a smattering of just about every singular event that the best of baseball games can deliver: except for the Red Sox 8-1 early win against the St. Louis Cardinals, we saw low ERA’s among starting and relief pitchers + closers. In the other WS-2013 games, we saw base-runners crossing the plate for runs but also runners left in scoring position, plus the unexpected home-run and triple, and the brilliant and deep outfield catch ending a half-inning or inning---in other words, the 2013 WS included a wide spread of all that fans and players + managers and coaches like seeing in successive baseball games. Reinforced from this more than in several previously-held WS is an old lesson, that balance among the many attributes that translate into high-end skills and power, and not just the ultra-superiority found in a few players, is what makes the better MLB team. . . END/ml
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
NFL: ANALYSIS, WEEK 8; BRONCOS 7-1 AFTER DEFEAT OF WASHINGTON REDSKINS // MLB : WORLD SERIES, RED SOX AHEAD.
SPORTS NOTEBOOK
sports-notebook.blogspot.com
FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone;
Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: Analysis, Week 8; Broncos 45, Redskins 21 // MLB: World Series, Red Sox Ahead. . . // NFL---THE NFL National Conference East’s Dallas Cowboys fell to the NC North’s 5-3 Detroit Lions on Sunday, 31-30, becoming the league’s only division leading franchise losing a 2013/Week 8 game. However, the NC East’s second place 3-5 Philadelphia Eagles lost on Sunday to NC East’s last place now 2-6 New York Giants, 15-7, enabling the Cowboys to stay among the NFL’s six division leading teams, though ahead by just one win. Still leading the NC West are the Seattle Seahawks, 7-1 after last night’s 14-9 win over the 3-5 St. Louis Rams. Leading the NC North still are the 5-2 Green Bay Packers, on Sunday a victor versus the Minnesota Vikings, 44-31. Remaining atop the NC South are the 6-1 New Orleans Saints, defeating on Sunday the American Conference East’s last place franchise, the 3-5 Buffalo Bills, 35-17. Still leading the AC West plus the entire AC and the full league are the undefeated/8-0 Kansas City Chiefs, having beaten the 3-5 Cleveland Browns on Sunday, 23-17. Number one team of the AC East is still the 6-2 New England Patriots, having beaten the AC East 3-4 Miami Dolphins on Sunday, 27-17. Leading the AC North are the 6-2 Cincinnati Bengals, which defeated the AC East 4-4 N.Y. Jets on Sunday, 49-9 (Week 8’s widest point spread). The Bengals are also the division leading franchise with the highest numerical advantage over a second place team, three games ahead of AC North’s 3-4 Baltimore Ravens. Leading the AC South still are the 5-2 Indianapolis Colts after the team’s Bye, with AC South’s number two franchise, the 3-4 Tennessee Titans also finishing a Bye. So, the operative words for describing NFL Week 8 is, for the most part, “Status Quo,” with the Chiefs and the Seahawks still leading their respective conferences by just one game over second place teams of their divisions, the AC West’s 7-1 Denver Broncos, the NC West’s 6-2 San Francisco 49ers. And, still at the very bottom are the AC South’s 0-8 Jacksonville Jaguars and the NC South’s 0-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. . . Of the 16 NFL teams that are below 8-8, that is, beneath .500, nine reside within the AC, seven inside the NC, with greatest disparity among the six divisions, for instance, only one AC West team is below .500, the 3-4 Oakland Raiders, while three teams within the AC North are below .500, the 3-4 Ravens, 3-5 Browns and the 2-5 Pittsburgh Steelers; and, three AC South franchises are also below .500, the 3-4 Titans, 2-5 Houston Texans, the 0-8 Jaguars. The only division within the NC that is of but one team under .500 is the NC West containing the 3-4 Rams. The division with the most wins to date is the AC West---22. The division with least wins is the AC South---10. The AC bests the NC, 62 wins over 57. . . // BRONCOS, REDSKINS---A Denver Broncos defense contributed greatly to a Week 8 Broncos 45-21 takedown of the Washington Redskins, a surprise gift to a Broncos Peyton Manning-led offense that had listed the Redskins ahead at 21-14 prior to the game’s fourth quarter, namely the Broncos defense keeping the Redskins to but seven points during the first half and to but one TD in the third Q, not allowing anything like the 33 points it had allowed when up against and losing to the now 5-2 Indianapolis Colts during Week 7. Within a Broncos versus Redskins fourth Q comeback was a Broncos defense that included LB Von Miller causing a Redskins fumble that was picked by Broncos LE Derek Wolfe for a TD. Regarding the Broncos offense, at the half it had but seven points alongside the Redskins seven. Still, the other significant contribution to the Broncos win was a surprise offense switch to a running strategy from what was expected to be an offense dominated by Manning’s passes from kick-off to endgame, to wit: RB’s Knowshon Moreno and Monte Ball combining for 81 yards, averaging more than 3.1 yards per rush, a TD between them. The Broncos accrued a total of 117 rushing yards from 28 rushing plays. Even so, Manning completed 30 of 44 pass attempts for 354 yards, three of his receivers achieving touchdowns, WR’s Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas, plus TE Joel Dreessen. Welker received for 81 yards, Thomas, 75. The late-game Broncos favoring the run resided within a risk not seen often, a go at fourth down efficiency resulting in TD value. Half the season over now for the Broncos, the team’s primary goal will be remaining a one-loss franchise past Week 16 onto a then guaranteed post-season berth, the big challenge for this being Weeks 11, 12 and 13, when the Broncos will be facing sequentially the now undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, the current 5-2 New England Patriots, again the Chiefs. . . WORLD SERIES---NOTEWORTHY and unusual about this year’s WS is that it involves the two ball clubs that finished the 2013 regular season as the two best in all of baseball, in addition to being the top two within the year’s post-season/league championship series. This could be why the point spreads have mostly been slight for the five WS contests played to date, the scores low except for the WS lead-in game’s 8-1, Boston over St. Louis; example, last night’s 3-1 Boston win bringing the games-won balance to 3-2, Boston ahead. There could only be one of two outcomes from the next WS game, either Boston wins the WS or there will be a 3-3 WS and game seven soon after. Some background: the 7-game WS is rare. There have been only six 4-3 wins of 25 WS conducted since 1987, with but three of these since year 2000, suggesting that if data were always the dominant force in baseball Boston would be the year’s WS winner from game six. However, of the six 4-3 WS wins since 1987, the St. Louis Cardinals won the most recent, 4-3 vs. the Texas Rangers, WS-2011. As it’s been throughout, it’s likely anyone’s pick for the final 2013 WS outcome. END/ml
Friday, October 25, 2013
NFL: WEEK 8, ON TO MID-POINT; BRONCOS TO FACE THE REDSKINS // MLB: WORLD SERIES, BRIEF UPDATE.
SPORTS NOTEBOOK. . . sports-notebook.blogspot.com. . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail leiner. . . // . . . NFL: On To Mid-Point, Week 8; Broncos, Redskins // MLB: World Series, Brief Update. . . // . . . NFL---AFTER seven weeks of play, last year’s mediocre American Conference West Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated 2013 NFL franchise (7-0), and the AC South’s Jacksonville Jaguars and National Conference South’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at the other end of the spectrum, both 0-7, while Super Bowl winner of two years ago, the NC East’s New York Giants, are surprisingly at 0-6, and just two franchises have but one loss, the AC West’s Denver Broncos and the NC West’s Seattle Seahawks, 6-1 each. Also, last year’s often dumped and now 5-1 NC South’s New Orleans Saints are fifth best in the league behind three teams that are tied at 5-2, the AC East’s New England Patriots, the AC South’s Indianapolis Colts, the NC West’s San Francisco 49ers. Consequently, this isn’t a movie that we have seen time and again, an impression that is further illuminated when you note that the AC North’s Baltimore Ravens, last season’s Super Bowl winner, are at 3-4 and therefore under .500 as Week 8 moves from last night’s NC South’s NOW 4-3 Carolina Panthers 31-13 win over the Buccaneers, placing the Panthers at second place behind the Saints. Too, teams that were far ahead of others throughout most of last season, and that were already post-season candidates as Week 8 then appeared, they are now way behind the power-curve, the AC South’s 2-5 Houston Texans and the NC South’s 2-4 Atlanta Falcons. Still, except for the Chiefs atop the AC West, the current division leading teams cannot be said to be where they are “surprisingly” for NFL season Week 8---AC East, it’s the 5-2 Patriots, AC North the 5-2 Bengals; AC South the 5-2 Indianapolis Colts, and within the NC West it’s the 6-1 Seahawks, NC East the 4-3 Dallas Cowboys, NC North the 4-2 Green Bay Packers, NC South the 5-1 Saints. Unlike last season, not one of these numero uno teams has a commanding lead today over the franchises in division number two slots, as examples, the AC West’s 6-1 Broncos being one only win behind the Chiefs, and behind the NC North’s Packers are second and third place teams with the same number of wins that the Packers have, four. . . Of course, this Sunday put into focus the other side of the 2013 race, it’s the start of the back end, where teams get a glimpse of what must be accelerated and improved upon over eight more weeks if they are to finish 2013 as NFL winners instead of as losers, that is, at or above 8-8/.500, better yet as candidates for a shot at the Super Bowl. This said, no crystal balls, please, for fair if not perfect guesses at what could exist as standings when Week 8 ends are best seen relative to the current 2013 win/loss records, such as those cited above, for instance, the data tells us that the 7-0 Chiefs will probably defeat the AC North’s 3-4 Cleveland Browns on Sunday, meanwhile the 6-1 Broncos finishing ahead of the NC East’s 2-4 Washington Redskins, while the 5-2 Patriots will likely defeat the AC East’s 3-3 Miami Dolphins, the 5-1 Saints the AC East’s 3-4 Buffalo Bills, the 5-2 49ers the 0-7 Jaguars (game is at London, U.K.), the 6-1 Seahawks the NC West’s 3-4 St. Louis Rams on Monday night. Yet the AC North’s 5-2 Bengals could be kneed by the AC East’s 4-3 N.Y. Jets, the 4-3 Cowboys could lose to the NC North’s 4-3 Detroit Lions, while the AC West’s 2-4 Oakland Raiders/AC North’s 2-4 Pittsburgh Steelers game could go in either direction. Note: for the Ravens, Colts and the NC North’s 4-3 Chicago Bears, Week 8 is their Bye. . . //. . . BRONCOS, REDSKINS---SINCE the start of the 2013 NFL season, the AC West’s 6-1 Denver Broncos have been a most transparent football team, while the NC East’s 2-4 Washington Redskins have appeared mercurial, complex, harder to pin down from outsider observations, this latter fact about the Redskins probably not deliberate, more than likely the result of Redskins players, head coach and tactical coordinators being both high and low upon the ladder of smarts, skills and power across Weeks 1 through 7. In other words, where the Broncos are of concern the Peyton Manning-led offense has been consistent since September 5, it has been a high above-the-margin offense outsmarting and outplaying opposing defense squads in almost every quarter played, always finishing games in double-digits, experiencing only one loss, that by just six points to the AC South’s 5-2 Indianapolis Colts last week, 39-33. Paralleling this, the Broncos defense hasn’t matched the Manning-led offense in capabilities and in limitations, it being at-the-margin only, allowing opposing offense squads to score 19 or more points per contest. Meanwhile, the Redskins have been roller-coaster on two tracks, upon Track One losing its first three games of the season, one of these three a blowout (vs. the NC North’s 4-2 Green Bay Packers, losing 38-20), then defeating the AC West’s now 2-4 Oakland Raiders, 24-14, next losing badly to the NC East’s 4-3 Dallas Cowboys, 31-16, followed by a win vs. the NC North’s 4-3 Chicago Bears, 45-41; Track Two, within either win or loss over the past seven weeks the Redskins have been offense-strong during one or two games while defense-weak, and then the opposite existed in other contests. There’s no telling which will come up stronger during a Redskins game, offense or defense? Clear, however, are the differences in performance values, Broncos vs. Redskins. While QB Manning has a pass completion rate above 70 percent, Redskins QB Robert Griffin III’s completion rate hovers at 60 percent. To date, Manning has passed for more than 2,500 yards, RG3 for less than 1,800, and though the Redskins have rushed for more than 845 yards and averaged more than 5 yards per rush and the Broncos for less than 800 and 3.8 per rush, the Redskins have turned this into seven touchdowns while the Broncos have converted rushes into 10 TD’s, signaling that the Broncos offense has superior economy-of-force and better end zone-to-TD attributes. Another example of this is the Redskins best RB rushing for a total of 472 yards throughout the season’s seven weeks at 5.2 yards per rush, while Broncos RB, Knowshon Moreno, has rushed for fewer yards, 413 and 4.3 yards per rush, a difference being that the Redskins top RB’s rushes accrued only three TD’s compared with Moreno’s eight TD’s. Comparing receivers, no Redskins receiver has achieved more than two TD’s up through Week 7, while Broncos WR Wes Wexler has caught for eight TD’s, tight end Julius Thomas for eight, WR Demaryius Thomas for five, WR Eric Decker for three. Should this data hold, an offense comparisons-only on Sunday could humiliate the Redskins. Still, and win or lose, in no game that the Redskins have played this year has its offense failed to score 27 or more points, the highest being 45 points against the Bears. If the Broncos defense can keep the Redskins to fewer than the 19 or more that it has given away each week, the Redskins will return to Washington as losers, 2-5 toward Week 9. This also means that to win vs. the Broncos, the Redskins will need to succeed at the pass rush so as to upset Manning’s timing and field-of-vision, at linemen smothering Broncos RB’s, at a defense secondary being fast and flexible enough to stay between the football and the Broncos WR’s, all of these anti-Bronco skills that which the Redskins haven’t demonstrated so far this year. The Redskins RG3-led offense could amass more than 20 points vs. the Broncos defense if the Broncos defense cannot deliver better than it has to date, but it’s likely that QB Manning and his fellow-attackers will put up much more than that. . . // . . . MLB WORLD SERIES--- FOR the 2007 WS victory, the American League’s Boston Red Sox swept the National League’s Colorado Rockies, 4-0, and in 2004 the Red Sox swept the NL’s St. Louis Cardinals, 0-4. Well, chances for the Sox to do that again disappeared last night with the Cardinals 4-2 win. And, for the 2011 WS championship the Cardinals beat the American League’s Texas Rangers, 4-3, and to take the 2006 WS title the Cards defeated the Detroit Tigers, 4-1. Either of the last two NL WS win outcomes is a possibility now for the NL’s Cards starting with home game advantage on Saturday, but also a possibility for the AL’s Sox in that whatever happens tomorrow will result in a 2-1 outcome, with neither the Sox nor the Cards yet in a WS situation including real insurance for a best of seven WS victory. “Go, Sox1” “Go, Cards!” END/ml
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