END OF A RUN

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . NOVEMBER 29 5 // FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com.. . SPORTS NOTEBOOK . . . 

Second edition of book SPORTS & THE HEROIC, by Marvin Leibstone, is now available via B&N, Amazon, and from publisher, XLIBRIS.        

NFL: Super Bowl XLIX, Patriots & Seahawks // NBA: the Standings; Nuggets, Down.

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . January 30 // FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com.. . SPORTS NOTEBOOK now posts its columns on Friday of each week. . . Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL--- FOR the two teams about to face each other at Super Bowl XLIX, the competition began last year when during the NFL-2013 playoffs both moved toward Super Bowl XLVIII. However, the NFL AFC’s N.E. Patriots failed to be where the Denver Broncos landed, while the AFC’s Seattle Seahawks got there to punish the Broncos and become Super Bowl winners for the first time since being at Super Bowl XL (2006) and losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 21-10, when the Patriots had won the two previous Super Bowls.

The Patriots grew determined to go further during NFL-2014 and its post-season, and they have done that, primed now for what they hope will be the unraveling of a team that has wanted to prove it can win the Super Bowl back-to-back.

On Sunday, only one of the two teams will taste victory, which of the two no-one can know for sure. Regulation and playoff records combined, both teams are headed to Glendale, Arizona, at 14-4, and their regulation and playoff stats point to a roughly equal amount of strengths and a similar count of vulnerabilities. If both teams can build on their strengths and minimize their vulnerabilities, Super Bowl XLIX will indeed be a close match.

Here, then, is some data suggesting either team winning by no more than 10---

--- During NFL-2014 regulation, the Patriots won six of their last eight games, the Seahawks seven of the team’s final eight. From the Patriots last eight games played, the team allowed opposing franchises to accrue a total of 136 points, while in only one game of the eight could the Patriots keep the opposition from gaining less than 10 points The Seahawks gave away 82 points during its final eight games, in five of the eight preventing opposing teams from finishing with more than nine points.

Yet the Patriots six of eight wins in the last half of NFL-2014 delivered a total of 230 points, with two of the wins with more than 40 points and a third with 34 points, while the Seahawks provided 192 points, its best wins from 38 and 35, all others from less than 25.

Also, during NFL-2014 regulation the Patriots receivers went for 34 touchdowns, the Seahawks receivers for 20. Yet the Seahawks rushing resulted in 20 TD’s, the Patriots, 13.

Of note, too, is that 12 of the 34 Patriots receiver TD’s during NFL-2014 regulation were from one athlete, TE Rob Gronkowski, and during a 2014 playoff game vs. the Indianapolis Colts, Patriots RB Jonas Gray scored four TD’s. Meanwhile, 13 of the Seahawks 20 rush TD’s of NFL-2014 were from a single individual, RB Marshawn Lynch. If these players perform to the hilt on Sunday, there’ll be additional reinforcement for a very close match.

Telling of what a future game could look like is the total number of first downs that a team accrues during a season relative to number of TD’s gained. For example, the Patriots had a season total of 361 first downs and a total of 47 TD’s, while the Seahawks managed to obtain 328 first downs and 40 TD’s. The difference reflects rough parity, another indication that Super Bowl XLIX probably won’t be a blowout, one team finishing far ahead of the other, “barring those X-factors that are always spoken of ahead of kick-off and until we’re past the two minute warning,” for instance, the Seahawks CB Richard Sherman intercepting a Brady throw = TD; or, the Seahawks Lynch and his short runs going for more first downs and red zone occupation = TD’s; or, the Patriots Brady and Gronkowksi dominating Super Bowl XLIX from the get-go = TD’s.

Nor can we set aside a factor that cannot be put into numbers, a head coach’s wiliness and surprising switches when it comes to risk-taking and employment of tactics. The Patriots HC, Bill Belichick, he usually delivers more hastily re. this category, than Seahawks HC, Pete Carroll, especially when it comes to quick fixes and new maneuverings within an increasingly aggressive D.

So, we can’t discount the past and the unexpected within, e.g., last year’s Broncos Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks, 43-8.

NBA---EXCEPT for one of the third place teams within the NBA’s six divisions---the Western Conference Southwest’s 29-14 Houston Rockets---, none are anywhere near second position. And, it’s two weeks before All-Star weekend, thus for the 30 NBA franchises the NBA regular season is more than half over. It’s likely, then, that for the rest of the NBA season it’ll be first and second place teams + the Rockets reflecting the serious competition for playoff billets. The Rockets are just 2 games behind the WC Southwest’s first position franchise, the 30-12 Memphis Grizzlies.

Worst among today’s third position franchises are, and surprisingly so when compared with last season’s NBA post-season results, the Eastern Conference Southeast’s 20-25 Miami Heat, 17 games behind first position team, the 38-3 Atlanta Hawks.

Another surprise is that last year’s NBA championship team, the WC Southwest’s 29-14 San Antonio Spurs, are still a third place franchise, five games behind first position team, the 34-12 Memphis Grizzlies.

A third surprise, that’s the WC Northwest’s 22-20 Oklahoma City Thunder. Although a second place team, they are nine games back of first place team, the 32-14 Portland Trail Blazers.

Sinking fast, it seems, and unexpectedly, are the WC Northwest’s third position franchise, the 18-24 Denver Nuggets, 14 games back of first place team, the Trail Blazers. From four Nuggets losses in six days is evidence of possible deep-sixing for the long term, especially indicative when last night’s Nuggets loss to the Memphis Grizzlies was 99-69, a 30 point deficit.

As to the other division leading teams, they are still the WC Pacific’s now 34-6 Golden State Warriors, the EC Atlantic’s 27-15 Toronto Raptors, and the EC Central’s 28-16 Chicago Bulls. Except for the Bulls four game edge above second position team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, each has more than a five game division lead, best being the Raptors 12 game lead above second place team, the 18-27 Brooklyn Nets.

Surely a sad note is that “the former top teams as if dynasties,” they are at the bottom of the league, e.g., the WC Pacific’s last place 12-31 L.A. Lakers, the EC Atlantic’s last place 7-36 N.Y. Knicks (worst record today within the entire NBA). Re. the EC Atlantic’s third place 13-26 Boston Celtics, they’re 12 games back of first place team, the Raptors.

END/ml 

NFL: Super Bowls I Until XLIX; Broncos, the New & the Old // NBA, Standings & “Standing Still.”

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . // FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com.. . SPORTS NOTEBOOK now posts its columns on Friday of each week. . . Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL--- IT began in 1967 with Green Bay defeating Kansas City, 25-10. The Packers were hot in the 1960’s, taking Super Bowl II away from Oakland the following year, 33-14, though Green Bay did not win another Super Bowl until 1997, Super Bowl XXXI, defeating New England, 35-21.

Green Bay also won Super Bowl XLV (2011) against Pittsburgh, 31-25.

But the most prolific Super Bowl winner since 1967, that’s the Pittsburgh Steelers, achieving six victories---Super Bowls IX and X (1965, 76), Super Bowls XIII and XIV (1979, 80), Super Bowl XL (2006) and Super Bowl XLIII (2009).

And from competing at Super Bowl XXX and losing to Dallas (1996), plus to Super Bowl XLV and losing to Green Bay (2011), Pittsburgh can boast of having the most Super Bowl appearances, “eight.”

Also, while six teams have won the Super Bowl two years straight, Pittsburgh is the only NFL franchise to win back-to-back Super Bowls twice. . . the five other back- to-back Super Bowl winners are Green Bay, San Francisco, Dallas, Denver and New England.

Here are some other Super Bowl facts---

No losing Super Bowl team has given away more than the 55 points from Denver to San Francisco, Super Bowl XXXIV (1990);

In only seven of the 48 Super Bowls held to date has a losing franchise failed to accrue fewer than double-digit points, the lowest among losing teams being three points, Super Bowl VI (1972) Miami losing to Dallas, 24-3.

Since year 2000, all Super Bowl winning teams finished with more than 20 points, the high win of the period occurring at Super Bowl XXXVII (2003), Tampa Bay over Oakland, 48-21.

The only team to reach the Super Bowl four years in a row and lose each year, that’s the AFC East’s Buffalo Bills, 1991 through 1994, losing to the N.Y. Giants, Washington and twice to Dallas.

During year 2000 and the present, New England reached the Super Bowl four times, winning three, two of the wins back-to-back---first, Super Bowl XXXVI (2002) against St. Louis, 20-17, then Super Bowl XXXVIII (2004), defeating Carolina, 32-29 and Super Bowl XXXIX (2005), beating Philadelphia, 24-21, next losing to the N.Y. Giants, Super Bowl XLII (2008), 17-14. . . Note that in each of the four N.E. Patriot Super Bowl contests starting 2002, the final difference between teams was three points.

Pittsburgh, the N.Y. Giants and Baltimore are three teams that have won two Super Bowls each since year 2000. That’s six Super Bowl victories of 15 Super Bowl matches. Add New England’s three Super Bowl wins and the total is nine of 15 Super Bowl games won by four franchises since Y2K. Of course, the Seattle Seahawks, NFL-2014’s NFC championship team, is hoping to be number five, while NFL-2014’s AFC Championship team, New England, is hoping to be first to win four in the time-frame at Super Bowl XLIX next month. Seattle won Super Bowl XLVIII last February, defeating the Denver Broncos, __-__.

Broncos---THERE are numerous quips for when it seems that all is about to change, some negative, others positive. Among the darkest there’s, “The names and faces change but the Con, the Con stays the same.” Then there’s, “Among the Devil’s best tricks is his ability to convince you that things can really be different.,” and, “Nothing ever changes, the beat goes on, as it is now.” In the National Football League, the Denver Broncos proved how wrong the dark quips can be when former Broncos QB, John Elway, became top man re. Broncos football operations and helped to bring in John Fox as Head Coach and Peyton Manning as the team’s QB, this after a sad turn with long-time Broncos HC, Mike Shanahan, going stale and his replacement unable to live up to expectations. With Fox as HC, the Broncos won the AFC West three years straight, thus to playoffs each of his years with the Broncos, and the Super Bowl XLVIII.

But the Broncos were eliminated during this year’s playoffs and so no Super Bowl that the Broncos front office and Denver fans were sure would be theirs to win.

“Sorry, John, we’ve a difference in outlook,” is what the intent of conversation was on firing day, quiet, respectful.

Fox is now the Chicago Bears HC, and from Baltimore to the Broncos as HC it’s Gary Kubiak, former Broncos QB.

The big question, then, is, “Will Kubiak be able to accomplish what John Fox couldn’t? Will he take the Broncos all the way in 2015, the Broncos front and center at the fiftieth Super Bowl?

Of course, the question cannot be answered with one hundred percent certainty, certainly not by any stat and computer whiz, not by any NFL analyst of the highest order, nor by any sportswriter, and surely not by any member of the Broncos organization, although informed guesses can be made and many have been.

Yes, Kubiak isn’t an unknown quantity, he’s been with the Broncos in the past, his reputation as offense coordinator at Baltimore has been superb.

Still, any person in a new job and away from a team for several years isn’t the same individual that he or she was prior to the new gig. Too, the team that Kubiak will be coaching isn’t the same team that he was with years back, except in name and location. Make no mistake, “We are all new at the new, everyone of us. So, too, the challenges we face almost every day.”

Still, experience gives us a better shot at succeeding, and Kubiak has this, and the Broncos offense might once again have Peyton Manning afield. The Broncos can surely have a better chance than most franchises for an appearance at Super Bowl number 50. You can’t set aside a team that finished NFL-2014 at 12-4, most of it’s A and B lists returning for NFL-2015.

Too, what may seem to some as near-future assistant coach packaging that will need more than a single season to deliver superbly will, given today’s candidates, be of deep experience that can lead to development of innovative tactics and help improve skills for the rushing strategy that didn’t seem to exist during the Broncos recent playoff loss, and for the defense that has be a lot more seamless, more mobile and more physically aggressive to prevail against teams such as those that will be competing at Super Bowl XLIX, the Patriots and the Seahawks, likely to be the toughest competition during NFL- 2015 playoffs.

NBA---THE teams that in each of the six NBA divisions are holding first and second slots are the same as those that held those positions more than two weeks ago, without any of the second place holders gaining significantly toward being number one. The Western Conference Northwest’s 31-12 Portland Trail Blazers are eight games up on the Oklahoma City Thunder, the WC’s 30-12 Memphis Grizzlies are still atop the Dallas Mavericks by a game, and the WC Pacific’s 34-6 Golden State Warriors are above the L.A. Clippers by seven. As of today, and as it was more than two weeks ago, the 34-6 Warriors are also the WC’s number one franchise.

Inside the Eastern Conference, the EC Atlantic’s 27-15 Toronto Raptors are leading second place team, the Brooklyn Nets, by nine wins, the EC Southeast’s 35-8 Atlanta Hawks are six above the Washington Wizards, and the ECs Central’s 28-16 Chicago Bulls are four wins atop the Cleveland Cavaliers. . . Leading the EC, and also the entire NBA, are the 35-8 Hawks, two weeks agon one win behind the then 26-5 Warriors.

But while a status quo is being maintained at the top of the six divisions, there have been changes at the bottom, for example, the EC Southeast’s 18-25 Bobcats have moved to fourth place from last, the 15-30 Orlando magic now the EC Southeast’s last, and the EC Central’s 15-29 Indiana Pacers dropped to last, replacing now fourth place team, the 17-26 Detroit Pistons.

Two NBA teams are still owners of the least number of wins, both with an embarrassing seven wins of more than 40 games played to date, the WC Northwest’s last place 7-34 Minnesota Timberwolves, and the EC Atlantic’s last place team, the 7-36 N.Y. Knicks.

Among third position holders, the WC Southwest’s 29-14 Houston Rockets have been the only team to show possibility of early advancement, being just a win below second place team, the Dallas Mavericks. All other third place holders are seven or more behind second place teams.

The only fourth position team of either NBA conference with only single-digit games behind a first place team is the WC Southwest’s 27-17 San Antonio Spurs.

The WC Southwest is the NBA’s only division with all five of its teams at .500 or above .500, last place N.O. Pelicans being 21-21.

END/ml

NFL-2014: Conference Match-ups; Denver Broncos, Opting For The New.

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . January 16 // FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com.. . SPORTS NOTEBOOK now posts its columns on Friday of each week. . . Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL--- AND so this weekend it’ll be the AFC East’s 13-4 N.E. Patriots against the AFC North’s 13-5 Indianapolis Colts, and the NFC North’s 13-4 Green Bay Packers versus the NFC West’s 13-4 Seattle Seahawks, or, as some fans and analysts have been seeing it, just the Patriots quarterback, Tom Brady, against the Colts QB, Andrew Luck, and the Packers QB, Aaron Rodgers, vs. the Seahawks QB, Russell Wilson.

Yet in each conflict and from kick-off on, it could be defense-maneuverings dominating nearly every minute, forcing each team’s offense to enact mostly groundwork for the few yards per down toward red zone occupation that they will rarely achieve, each team robbed too often of the ideal, of QB’s protected well enough for the long or short pass, in effect, QB’s being unable to deliver a football past defenders who have been savvy and skillful enough to have earned their post-season slots.

OF course, we can attempt to determine NFL game-outcomes by looking at a team’s performance data. Surely, defense effectiveness can be measured by number of points that each team’s defense allowed its opposing teams to accrue during a season, for instance, during the Colts four worst losses of NFL-2014 regulation the Colts defense allowed a total of 151 points to opposing teams, while the Patriots gave away much less, 117 points during its four losses.

Too, the total number of season TD’s achieved by an offense + a season’s QB pass-completion ratings, these can say much about a team, as could number of rushing and passing yards obtained during a season.

OR, we could set data aside and place hopes on particular athletes being at the zenith of their skills, such as QB Brady and TE Ron Gronkowski teaming superbly, or QB Luck throwing with perfection for catches by Colts TE Coby Fleener, or by Colts WR, Danny Amendola.

FROM our using past experience as a measure for choosing a winning team, how could we not believe in other than a Patriots victory from the team’s head coach, Bill Belichick, being tied with former Cowboys head coach, Tom Landry, for most playoff wins in the NFL, 20 each, and from QB Brady holding the NFL’s most post-season wins for a QB, 19 victories?

AND, the Seahawks won last season’s Super Bowl primarily with a defense that is a better defense this year than last, rating much higher than that of the Packers, having allowed, on average, only eight points to opposing teams during their last seven victories.

FROM the data and other ways and means for separating winners and losers before the fact, it looks like a small Patriot edge over the Colts on Sunday, and probably a Seahawks victory taken just barely from the Packers, neither of the two games concluding with a large numerical deficit between winner and loser.

YET last Sunday, the 12-4 Denver Broncos entered a divisional playoff match as a better team statistically and with the more experienced QB, than that which the 12-5 Colts could begin with, and the Colts came away the victor.

Broncos---GONE fast, swept away! Broncos head coach, John Fox, was suddenly out the door, thought unfit because the Broncos again couldn’t go all the way, wouldn’t get to February’s Super Bowl XLIX---they hadn’t landed square on an opportunity for that Super Bowl win that hasn’t belonged to the Broncos in many years.

IT seemed to the Broncos management that the team’s loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday reflected need for a change if indeed that desired Super Bowl win is to be in their sights week after week during the next NFL season.

SO, from the Broncos front-office Super Bowl-obsession, another head coach is history. Whether John Fox is job-hunting now or not, at Denver he’ll soon be a forgotten man, like Mike Shanahan, like that what’s-his-name now with the Patriots, and Jake Plummer, Jay Cutler, Tim Tebow. But that’s the NFL’s quick turnover culture instead of leadership at the top risking another season of “a special goal being unmet,” and for the Broncos that goal has been to obtain more than an appearance at a Super Bowl, it’s been to win at a Super Bowl.

GONE, too, is Jack Del Rio, from being the Broncos defense coordinator, now the Oakland Raiders HC for 2015, plus offense coordinator, Adam Gaze, to the San Francisco 49ers.

NOT that Broncos senior executive, John Elway, should be condemned for Fox, Del Rio and Gaze having entered the NFL’s musical chairs game. Elway’s mission has been “Super Bowl Victory, or Bust!” Well, if that’s to be the Broncos reason-for-being, if it’s to be the team’s mantra and that which the organization’s money is to go for, so be it. As Elway might say, “Let other teams be satisfied with their winning records but no Super Bowl trophy.”

AS always after elimination from a professional sport’s post-season, it’s time to look ahead, therefore it’s up to Elway to find the right fits for a Broncos HC and for new Broncos defense and offense coordinators if the still proud Denver team is to reach and win the big Five-O, the fiftieth Super Bowl, year 2016.

FOR reconstruction and new field leadership, Elway will be offering a Broncos team that finished NFL 2014 at 12-4, and that won a 2014 post-season berth as the AFC-West’s leading team. They’ve been one of the NFL’s top franchises across several years, and they got to the 2013/14 Super Bowl. Also, until last Sunday, SB XLIX was within the Broncos reach.

TOO, the Broncos QB, Peyton Manning, has enough juice for another division championship, more post-season wins and another Super Bowl appearance.

IT’s that special goal, “the Broncos getting to and winning the fiftieth Super Bowl,” that the next Broncos HC will have to strive for---Broncos management seems to want nothing less than that.

End/ml

NFL-2014 PLAYOFFS: AFC---Broncos Versus Colts, Patriots Vs. Ravens; NFC---Cowboys Vs. Packers, Seahawks Vs. Panthers /// World Tennis,“the Australian Open (Jan.19).”

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . // FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com.. . SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . KINDLY NOTE THAT STARTING TODAY, JANUARY 9, OUR POSTINGS WILL ONLY APPEAR ON FRIDAY OF EACH WEEK, “i.e., No More Tuesday Reports.”

NFL--- EIGHT NFL-2014 teams will become four this weekend after completion of games that will decide which two of each NFL conference will compete for a championship crown and a shot at Super Bowl XL1X. Of this, the American Football Conference matchups will include the AFC West’s 12-4 Denver Broncos against the AFC South’s 12-5 Indianapolis Colts, plus the AFC North’s 11-6 Baltimore Ravens versus the AFC East’s 12-4 N.E. Patriots, and the National Football Conference divisional rounds will comprise the NFC East’s 13-4 Dallas Cowboys against the NFC South’s 12-4 Green Bay Packers, also the NFC South’s 8-8-1 Carolina Panthers vs. the NFC West’s 12-4 Seattle Seahawks.

There’s data from the NFL-2014 regular season suggesting that the Patriots will defeat the Ravens on Saturday, and that the Broncos will crush the Colts on Sunday, also that the Seahawks will unseat the Panthers on Saturday, and the Packers will send the Cowboys packing on Sunday; yet the NFL playoffs aren’t always the outcomes that statistics can lead us to.

Other data says that during the regular season, each of the eight teams that are competing this weekend had either a win or loss that was most unexpected. In other words, each of the eight have experienced that which only a few analysts of the NFL game could have thought possible, for example, the Broncos losing to the St. Louis Rams, 22-7, during Week 11, and the Colts defeating the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-0, during Week 7, then losing as badly as they did to the Cowboys, 42-7, during Week 16.

Also, during Week 15 the Ravens were dropped by the Houston Texans unexpectedly, 25-13, and during Week 17 the Patriots lost surpringly to the Buffalo Bills, 17-9. And, the Cowboys lost a game in OT to the Washington Redskins, 28-17, during 2014’s Week 8, after the Cowboys had defeated the Seahawks during Week 6, 30-23, the latter having beaten the Packers, 36-16, during Week 1.

Moreover, the under .500 and 8-8-1 Panthers lost games to three of the eight teams that are still in the playoffs---Ravens, Packers and the Seahawks, during Weeks 4, 7 and 8, but the Panthers have won their last five games, eliminating the NFC West’s 12-4 Arizona Cardinals last week.

So, the NFL playoffs are often that which happens in spite of what’s been expected to happen, the lesson, “Don’t bet the farm.”

Tennis (Australian Open)---- EVERY high ranking professional tennis player wants to do well at the Australian Open (January 19), wants to dominate, to take it if they can, to be up and over at down-under. This is so because the Australian Open, held at Melbourne, Aus., is not just the first of the four tennis-Grand Slams, it’s the start of the two annual pro-tennis tours---Weomen’s Tennis Association, and the Associaiton of Tennis Professionals, which in 2015 will finish for the year after 57 WTA competitions and 63 ATP events---at the Davis Cup-Final, November 23.

Surely the women rated 2014’s first, second and third best will be seeking this year’s Australia Open title---Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova and Simona Halep, with threats to them being former Aussie winners, Ana Ivanovic and Caroline Wozniacki.

Among men, the world’s ranked number two, Roger Federer, hasn’t won at the Australian Open since 2010. The big and “popular” challenges for Federer, and others, will be 2014’s number one ranked male tennis player, Novak Djokovic, and, of course, Rafael Nadal, ranked third, and Andy Murray, sixth.

END. . . REMINDER---AS OF TODAY, OUR POSTINGS WILL ONLY APPEAR ON FRIDAY OF EACH WEEK, ml

NFL: Playoffs & Going Forward // NBA: Standings & Change // World Tennis-2015

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . // FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL: Playoffs--- THE American Football Conference North’s 10-6 Baltimore Ravens defeated the AFC North’s 11-5 Pittsburgh Steelers over the weekend and will face the 12-4 N.E. Patriots this Saturday, while the AFC South’s 11-5 Indianapolis Colts prevailed against the AFC North’s 10-5-1 Cincinnati Bengals and will go up against the AFC West’s 12-4 Denver Broncos come Sunday.

Within the National Football Conferene, the NFC South’s 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers defeated the NFC West’s 11-5 Arizona Cardinals on Saturday and will meet the NFC West’s 12-4 Seattle Seahawks next Saturday, while the NFC East’s 12-4 Dallas Cowboys took down the NFC North’s 11-5 Detroit Lions and will challenge the NFC North’s 12-4 Green Bay Packers, Sunday.

The above-cited outcomes highlight that two division leading franchises, the Lions and the Bengals, were swept from the NFL-2014 playoffs. And, gone from the playoffs is the team that led its division + conference and the entire NFL for the longest period during the regular season, the NFC West’s Cardinals. Meanwhile, the below .500 NFC South’s Panthers, the NFL franchise with the poorest regular season record among the league’s eight divisions, is primed for a go at February’s SB if they could knee the Seahawks on Sunday.

Surprising some analysts were the Steelers loss to the Ravens and the Cardinals falling to the Panthers, underscoring that the NFL’s playoffs of any year can reflect the irony, the sudden fluke, the one or two gestures that can turn a game around, thus the better team guttered and gone.

Football reality advises that Weekend Two of the NFL’s current playoffs could see the the Seahawks dropped by the Panthers, the Packers by the Cowboys, the Patriots kneed by the Ravens, the Broncos by the Colts---but only a misguided fan would bet large on all of this happening, for while irony and the unexpected fluke always hover like clouds during any sports competition, they are never the full sky---it’s competence and determination that usually makes the difference, which is why we’re saying that the final challenges toward SB selection will comprise the NFC’s Seahawks against the Packers, and the AFC’s Broncos versus the Patriots.

NBA---THE six NBA division leading franchises have won 151 NBA-2014/15 games as of today, while the six division bottom-dwellers have accrued a total of 60, forcing a gap of 91 won games. Atop the division leaders are the Western Conference’s 26-5 Golden State Warriors and the WC Northwest’s 26-8 Portland Trail Blazers, accounting roughly for a third of the 151 won games.

Worst at the bottom of NBA-2014/15 today are the WC Northwest’s Minnesota Timberwolves, the Eastern Conference Atlantic Division’s Philadelphia 76ers, and the EC Atlantic’s N.Y. Knicks, each with only five wins from around the 30+ games that each has played.

The division leading franchise with the deepest lead over a second position team, that’s the WC Northwest’s Trail Blazers, nine wins above the 17-17 Oklahoma City Thunder. The best edge within the EC belongs to the EC Atlantic’s 24-10 Toronto Raptors, eight wins above the 16-18 Brooklyn Nets. The least comfortable edge held by a division first place team belongs to the WC Southwest’s Memphis Grizzlies, 25-9 above the 26-10 Dallas Mavericks, the latter’s extra loss preventing supremacy.

And among division third position teams, the WC Northwest’s 15-20 Denver Nuggets and the EC Atlantic’s 11-21 Boston Celtics have accrued the most “games behind” first place teams, 11 and 12 GB respectively.

Quite noticeable is how poorly big market teams have been doing since the start of NBA 2014/15 regulation: N.O. Pelicans, 17-17; L.A. Lakers, 11-23; N.Y. Knicks, 5-32; Detroit Pistons, 10-23. This same fate seems to have dropped in on last season’s top teams: the WC Southwest’s 21-14 San Antonio Spurs are currently a fourth slot franchise, the WC Southeast’s 15-20 Miami Heat a third place franchise.

So, reflecting incredible NBA inequality among the league’s 30 franchises is the big gap in number of wins between teams at the top and those at the bottom, yet the middle and back positions in standings among the NBA’s big market teams and the past season’s top NBA franchises can be said to offset that, which can be interpreted as an NBA that overall is an equal playing field as seasons change from one to the next.

World Tennis---THE world’s year-2015 top player tennis competitions began January 5, and the first major tournament, that is, the initial annual competition of Grand Slam labeling, will occur January 19, “the Australian Open,” at Melbourne, Australia. Next major event of the same caliber, that’s “the French Open,” at Roland Garros, Paris, France, on May 25, to be followed by “Wimbledon,” London, United Kingdom, June 29, afterward “the U.S. Open,” to be held at New York City, USA, August 21. And before, between and after these big four competitions are 64 tournaments scheduled by the ATP and 58 by the WTA, many of these the same, 12 of them tourneys occurring at different locations inside the U.S. . . Re. “Davis Cup” competition, first round will be March 2; Quarter-finals, July 13; Semi-finals, September 14; Final, November 23.

END/ml

NFL-2014: Playoffs & The Possibilities.

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . // FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL-2014: Playoffs & The Possibilities.

NFL---EIGHT from 32 NFL teams have reached the year’s playoffs, soon to be two from the AFC and two from the NFC for a go at respective “Conference crowns,” then two from that for “Super Bowl XLIX.”

But we can only guess which six of the eight will be swept away in coming weeks, and not with much certainty. For example, there’s much speculation that February’s SB will include the AFC East’s 12-4 N.E. Patriots against the NFC West’s 12-4 Seattle Seahawks, but the possibility of wild card teams leaping ahead and landing afield for the SB title can’t be minimized because it’s happened in NFL- past, therefore could happen soon in that wild card teams are ready to do battle this weekend each with enough mojo to afterward face the AFC’s Patriots and the AFC West’s Denver Broncos, + the NFC’s Seattle Seahawks and the NFC North’s Green Bay Packers. Take note that one of the two AFC wild card teams, the AFC North’s 10-5 Cincinnati Benglas, defeated the Broncos during NFL-2014’s Week 16, 37-28, and one of the two NFC franchises, the NFC East’s 12-4 Dallas Cowboys, prevailed against the Seahawks this year, 30-23.

The wild card line-up for Saturday includes the AFC North’s 10-6 Baltimore Ravens against the AFC North’s 11-5 Pittsburgh Steelers, and the NFC West’s 11-5 Arizona Cardinals versus the NFC South’s 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers. For Sunday, it’s the AFC North’s Bengals vs. the AFC South’s 11-5 Indianapolis Colts, and the NFC East’s Cowboys vs. the NFC North’s 11-5 Detroit Lions.

It won’t be easy for the Ravens to prevail over the Steelers. Not only have the Ravens lost two of their last five games, in those losses they allowed 59 points to the winners. Also, the Ravens lost to the Steelers during NFL Week 9, 43-23. By comparison, the Steelers lost but one of their last five challenges, three of the four wins against high above-the-margin franchises, the Bengals twice, and the AFC South’s Atlanta Falcons. Suggesting a tight game are the 43 TD’s accrued by the Ravens during NFL-2014 regulation, and the 43 TD’s obtained by the Steelers during the same period. Running tactics appear to be a stronger attribute for the Ravens when compared with that of the Steelers, accounting for 16 Ravens TD’s Weeks 1 through 17, vs. the Steelers rushing for 10, while a passing game looks to be the Steelers advantage, the Steelers having accrued 33 TD’s during the season, the Ravens 27. It will take the more powerful defense to upset this rough balance, and that could be the Ravens defense, listed fourth-best D within the NFL. If the Steelers prrevail on Saturday, it’ll be from Steelers QB Ben Rothlessberger being able to read into the Ravens D almost isntantly per play and then outsmarting/outplaying for the pass application.

As to Saturday’s NFC Cardinals vs. Panthers outing, the Cardinals lost steam after winning nine of the teams’s first 10 games of the year, losing four of the next six, meanwhile the Panthers seeming to be the flip side of the Cardinals regualtion experience, losing nine of 10 games starting with a Week 3 loss. It’s the Cardinals strong season start that empowered the team’s 11-5 season finish compared with the Panther’s 7-8-1 finish, which can mask the fact that throughout the season the Panthers accrued more receiving TD’s and more rushing TD’s than the Cardinals had, 23 over 21 receiver TD’s, 10 above six rushing TD’s. The leg up for the Panthers could be the Cardinals loss of two top QB’s due to injuries during latter weeks of the season, plus the Panthers more canny and faster for the throw or run QB, Cam Newton. This said, among the season’s ironies is that the Panthers have reached the NFL-2014 playoffs while finishing below .500.

On paper only, Sunday’s AFC wild card match between the Bengals and the Colts appears to be a Colts win. The Colts have won four of the team’s last five games, the Bengals three of their last five, which isn’t a powerful indicator of victory, but among the Colts 11 regulation wins the team managed to score higher than 40 points in four of them and more than 30 points during a fifth win, while not within any of the Bengals wins were more than 37 points developed and that happened only three times. Too, the Colts can boast of having scored 51 TD’s during NFL-2014, the Bengals 39. Yet the Bengals proved to have an increasingly close to seamless defense from a 30-zip victory against the Cleveland Browns during Week 15 and the team’s 37-28 win over the Broncos in the following week, and there’s that 42-7 Colts loss to the Cowboys during Week 16, which reflected Colts vulnerabilities within both offense and defense.

As for the Cowboys vs. Lions wild card game on Sunday, if we look at the last five games that each team has played, a Cowboys win seems inevitable. The Cowboys not only won four of the team’s last five, the four were won sequentially and with more than 40 points on the board during each, 38 during the fourth win. Also, the Cowboys have recorded 37 receiver-obtained TD’s during NFL-2014, coupled with 16 rushing TD’s, compared with the Lions 22 receiver-TD’s and 11 rushed TD’s. Atop this is Cowboys QB, Tony Romo, not highly superior to the Lions QB, Matt Stafford, with regard to total yards obtained and number of pass completions, instead Romo’s the QB with the better “Economy of throws = TD attainments,” in effect, “making the drive count, putting points on the board.”

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