sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . January 30 // FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS
RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging
team---milehighsports.com.. . SPORTS NOTEBOOK now posts its
columns on Friday of each week. . . Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy
& Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.
NFL---
FOR the two teams about to face each other at Super Bowl XLIX, the
competition began last year when during the NFL-2013 playoffs both moved toward
Super Bowl XLVIII. However, the NFL AFC’s N.E. Patriots failed to be where the
Denver Broncos landed, while the AFC’s Seattle Seahawks got there to punish the
Broncos and become Super Bowl winners for the first time since being at Super
Bowl XL (2006) and losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 21-10, when the Patriots
had won the two previous Super Bowls.
The Patriots grew determined to go further
during NFL-2014 and its post-season, and they have done that, primed now for
what they hope will be the unraveling of a team that has wanted to prove it can
win the Super Bowl back-to-back.
On Sunday,
only one of the two teams will taste victory, which of the two no-one can know
for sure. Regulation and playoff records combined, both teams are headed to
Glendale, Arizona, at 14-4, and their regulation and playoff stats point to
a roughly equal amount of strengths and a similar count of vulnerabilities. If
both teams can build on their strengths and minimize their vulnerabilities,
Super Bowl XLIX will indeed be a close match.
Here, then, is some data suggesting either
team winning by no more than 10---
--- During NFL-2014 regulation, the Patriots
won six of their last eight games, the Seahawks seven of the team’s final eight.
From the Patriots last eight games played, the team allowed opposing franchises
to accrue a total of 136 points, while in only one game of the eight could the
Patriots keep the opposition from gaining less than 10 points The Seahawks gave
away 82 points during its final eight games, in five of the eight preventing
opposing teams from finishing with more than nine points.
Yet the Patriots six of eight wins in the
last half of NFL-2014 delivered a total of 230 points, with two of the wins with
more than 40 points and a third with 34 points, while the Seahawks provided 192
points, its best wins from 38 and 35, all others from less than 25.
Also, during NFL-2014 regulation the
Patriots receivers went for 34 touchdowns, the Seahawks receivers for 20. Yet
the Seahawks rushing resulted in 20 TD’s, the Patriots, 13.
Of note, too, is that 12 of the 34 Patriots
receiver TD’s during NFL-2014 regulation were from one athlete, TE Rob
Gronkowski, and during a 2014 playoff game vs. the Indianapolis Colts, Patriots
RB Jonas Gray scored four TD’s. Meanwhile, 13 of the Seahawks 20 rush TD’s of
NFL-2014 were from a single individual, RB Marshawn Lynch. If these players
perform to the hilt on Sunday, there’ll be additional reinforcement for a very
close match.
Telling of what a future game could look like is the total number of
first downs that a team accrues during a season relative to number of TD’s
gained. For example, the Patriots had a season total of 361 first downs and a
total of 47 TD’s, while the Seahawks managed to obtain 328 first downs and 40
TD’s. The difference reflects rough parity, another indication that Super Bowl
XLIX probably won’t be a blowout, one team finishing far ahead of the other,
“barring
those X-factors that are always spoken of ahead of kick-off and until we’re past
the two minute warning,” for instance, the Seahawks CB Richard Sherman intercepting a Brady throw
= TD; or, the Seahawks Lynch and his short runs going for more first downs and
red zone occupation = TD’s; or, the Patriots Brady and Gronkowksi dominating
Super Bowl XLIX from the get-go = TD’s.
Nor can we set aside a factor that cannot be
put into numbers, a head coach’s wiliness and surprising switches when it comes
to risk-taking and employment of tactics. The Patriots HC, Bill Belichick, he
usually delivers more hastily re. this category, than Seahawks HC, Pete Carroll,
especially when it comes to quick fixes and new maneuverings within an
increasingly aggressive D.
So, we can’t discount the past and the
unexpected within, e.g., last year’s Broncos Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks,
43-8.
NBA---EXCEPT for one of the third place teams within the NBA’s six
divisions---the Western Conference Southwest’s 29-14 Houston Rockets---, none
are anywhere near second position. And, it’s two weeks before All-Star weekend,
thus for the 30 NBA franchises the NBA regular season is more than half over.
It’s likely, then, that for the rest of the NBA season it’ll be first and second
place teams + the Rockets reflecting the serious competition for playoff
billets. The Rockets are just 2 games behind the WC Southwest’s first position
franchise, the 30-12 Memphis Grizzlies.
Worst among today’s third position
franchises are, and surprisingly so when compared with last season’s NBA
post-season results, the Eastern Conference Southeast’s 20-25 Miami Heat, 17
games behind first position team, the 38-3 Atlanta Hawks.
Another surprise is that last year’s NBA
championship team, the WC Southwest’s 29-14 San Antonio Spurs, are still a third
place franchise, five games behind first position team, the 34-12 Memphis
Grizzlies.
A third surprise, that’s the WC Northwest’s
22-20 Oklahoma City Thunder. Although a second place team, they are nine games
back of first place team, the 32-14 Portland Trail Blazers.
Sinking
fast, it seems, and unexpectedly, are the WC Northwest’s third position
franchise, the 18-24 Denver Nuggets, 14 games back of first place team, the
Trail Blazers. From four Nuggets losses in six days is evidence of possible
deep-sixing for the long term, especially indicative when last night’s Nuggets
loss to the Memphis Grizzlies was 99-69, a 30 point
deficit.
As to the other division leading teams, they
are still the WC Pacific’s now 34-6 Golden State Warriors, the EC Atlantic’s
27-15 Toronto Raptors, and the EC Central’s 28-16 Chicago Bulls. Except for the
Bulls four game edge above second position team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, each
has more than a five game division lead, best being the Raptors 12 game lead
above second place team, the 18-27 Brooklyn Nets.
Surely a sad note is that “the former top
teams as if dynasties,” they are at the bottom of the league, e.g., the WC
Pacific’s last place 12-31 L.A. Lakers, the EC Atlantic’s last place 7-36 N.Y.
Knicks (worst record today within the entire NBA). Re. the EC Atlantic’s third
place 13-26 Boston Celtics, they’re 12 games back of first place team, the
Raptors.
END/ml
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