ROCKIES & 2012

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THE 2011 Rockies fell beneath the margin, they deep-sixed and Rockies manager Jim Tracy chose NOT to fire any of his coaches. There’ll be no pink slips, no burn notices for the Rockies coaching staff during the remainder of Tracy’s watch, which, to my thinking, deserves full respect, for it speaks to a leadership quality best expressed by the phrase that all wise bosses take to heart, “The buck stops here.” It says that Tracy and his coaches have acknowledged their role in the Rockies dismal May to September experience and that their job is to reverse course and knit together the team’s talents for a winning 2012.

IT’s not as if Tracy has to be that leader played by actor Lee Marvin in the classic war film, “The Dirty Dozen,” who turns bottom-of-the-pile misfits into expert warriors. The Rockies aren’t misfits; they are rostered talent that can rise to the occasion, having had it in them to win more than 90 of 162 games in 2011 instead of the less than 75 obtained. Yes, realistic expectations fell apart; however, the Rockies weak 2011 season occurred primarily from its potential for a winning record not being actualized, while that potential hadn’t disappeared completely. The big question is, Why the wide gap between team potential and what actually happened?

Reversing course means first noting the roadblocks, such as the Rockies pitching staff having an overall ERA bordering on the pathetic, plus the Rockies having delivered insufficient game-winning runs in spite of the team having a better than average on-base percentage, also insufficient depth of personnel for replacing players injured or in slumps or suddenly error prone, for example, unavailable all season were pitchers capable of providing the game winning consistency of injured starter Jorge De La Rosa and that of former Rockies starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, who slid surprisingly from ace status to mediocrity.

Too, injuries plus off-stride/off-swing hitting issues forced line-up changes that resulted in lack of teamwork experience, producing less than desired power at the plate and weak defense coordination, with little time available for Tracy and his coaches to observe new players and take them to optimum game readiness. Moreover, power hitters for the middle and back end of the line-up were nowhere to be found when needed urgently, which is a farm system preparedness issue that the Rockies front office needs to fix, and pronto!

But when looking at individual player performances, that of Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, Mark Ellis, occasionally Jhoulys Chacin, the Rockies appear to be a lot better than a team that finished far below .500, reflecting sufficient potential for a successful 2012, so it’s now the job of manager and coaches to bring that potential forward. Second big question---HOW?

Important for a Rockies turnaround is emphatic understanding that the coaches that Tracy has chosen to keep on board “underperformed” in 2011. They missed their marks. It’s up to Tracy to set the coaches in new directions before much else is done in preparation for 2012 .  .  .  which brings up the matter of training and readiness, that which all hitting, pitching, fielding and bench coaches are supposed to live for, and it flourishes best under the umbrella of a theme, which from review of the Rockies poor 2011 record ought to be, “Consistency.”  WANTED: Longer hitting streaks for Chris Iannetta and Ian Stewart that combine base hits with more power for the home run, also Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel gaining only low ERA’s while winning more games instead of their high performances followed days later by embarrassing ruination, and Dexter Fowler on base more as leadoff man, plus more successful pickups at third base for the hurl to Todd Helton at first, and Jason Giambi in more games with a better ratio of home runs per at-bats.

Okay, how can the above-cited examples of consistency come about? How does a team’s potential stretch long, and sustain? Easy to say and difficult to execute is that coaches must insure that all player flaws are noted and examined to the nth degree, that the more trusted of identified solutions are applied correctly after testing, from something as simple as a batter wearing new contact lenses to changes in a batter's stance as he faces left handed pitchers, to the complexities of a pitcher’s choice between fastball, cutter, slider or curve. Then players have to train to the max under coach supervision surely a lot harder than in any year before.

In sum, and more than just intimated by Tracy this week, the Rockies won’t get to rock until coach-player teaming can rock---for teams excluded from this year's post-season, the 2012 calendar is in the express mail, and the clocks are ticking loud as can be.

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DENVER BRONCOS  //  WORLD SERIES, 2011

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BRONCOS  ----  IT was a good football game each side of the field, and the Denver Broncos could have won had its defense stopped the Tennessee Titans from driving 95 yards in the final quarter for a TD that put the Titans ahead, 17-14; or if with minutes to go in the fourth Q and at fourth down and goal, Broncos running back Willis McGahee had gone further across the Titans one yard line for a TD, or if Broncos head coach John Fox had instead of ordering that fourth down rush had selected a field goal attempt. Anyway, the Titans won it clean and the Broncos are now one win and two losses while preparing for next Sunday’s turn against Green Bay.

With regard to John Fox’s no FG decision, such speaks to a baseball situation: bottom of the ninth, Rockies are behind the Diamondbacks by one run, Rockies are up. First to the plate, Carlos Gonzalez, who walks. Up next, heavy hitter Troy Tulowitzki. No outs. Rockies manager Jim Tracy can have Tulowitzki sacrifice with a bunt, or Tulowitzki could try sending the ball out of the park for a home run. If the latter becomes a sacrifice fly, Gonzalez could run the bases, maybe reach third. Or, Tulowitzki could play the count for a walk, still no outs and the task of RBIs going to the remainder of the line-up. Which should it be? Bunt, putting the ball in the bleachers, sacrifice fly, going for the walk? Check with a baseball manual, it’ll say, “Do the bunt.” But that’s no ordinary batter at the plate, it’s a most reliable slugger. So, Tracy opts for the long ball, green lights Tulowitzki to swing away. Then---Tulowitzki strikes out! The next two batters ground out and the DB’s win, Tracy’s proper choice collapsing like a punctured balloon.

Transfer the baseball situation to football and to John Fox setting aside the FG attempt, his having Orton and the right man for it McGahee doing what a football manual speaks against: Fox, Orton and McGahee opted for a TD and became the train that couldn’t, failure by inches. Was it the right choice? Considering the effective Orton and McGahee performances of earlier in the afternoon, the question deserves a Yes. Ask the question of many football coaches and they’ll agree, they’ll argue that sports wisdom advises a risk when the odds are better than good, though failure still looms in the near-distance. Anyone dissing Coach Fox for his decision has to get it that all sports are speculative moment-by-moment, therefore any “rational” choice is a good choice.  

And from the vs. Titans game, there’s no reason for Orton-bashing or talk about switching ASAP for QB Brady Quinn or QB Tim Tebow, especially for Sunday vs. Green Bay. Certainly justifying Orton as starting quarterback is that the Broncos offense gained 333 yards against the Titans. Tennessee’s offense obtained 231 vs. the Broncos. Yes, the Titans rushed for more yards than had the Broncos, 59 over 38---once again the Broncos kept getting into the red zone but couldn’t exploit all scoring opportunities via the extended rush; surely this is the Orton/receiver weakness that needs early on fixing.

The Broncos defense?  It’s become a heads-up defense, yet some of its plays were foiled by Titan fakes, to which the Broncos defense hadn’t recovered from fast enough, and there were Broncos defense plays where foot speed was off and so interferences that could have happened, didn’t. But if Elvis Dumervil and other injured players return on Sunday vs. Green Bay, we’ll be witnessing a different and probably better Broncos defense.

* * *

WORLD SERIES, 2011 ---  THOSE ball clubs that have won 90 or more games will compete soon for league championships and a go at the World Series: as of yesterday the NL’s Philadelphia Phillies from 99 wins, the Milwaukee Brewers from 94, the Arizona Diamondbacks, 93, the AL NYY’s from 97, the Texas Rangers, 93, the Detroit Tigers, 92, with competition from NL wild card contender the St. Louis Cardinals (88 wins) and AL wild card possible but now floundering Boston Red Sox (89 wins).

Probably the only solace that the Colorado Rockies can obtain from the above post-season list is that during the Rockies 2011 league + inter-league series with most of the listed teams, the Rockies, though now of a dismal 72/87 record, were not swept by them and in many cases had split a series. The Rockies are indeed a lot closer to .500 in games versus several of the top MLB franchises than vs. the complete spectrum of NL and AL clubs.

Of course, the eight teams currently listed for post-season play deserve the positions that they’ve achieved. Cumulatively, they represent 748 games won of the 4,860 that will be played by the 30 MLB teams as September comes to a close, definitely a huge share. Of particular note is that neither team has won the majority of its games from only a small string of baseball phenoms. Each has had a rounded-off staff of starting pitchers + relievers and closers, and they’ve had enough long ball batters interwoven and spreading power within a line-up’s OBP hitters/runners/base stealers. Too, most have had the necessary depth for replacing injured players. Surely the about-to-happen pennant races and the 2011 WS will be studies in what enables a baseball team to prevail against competition comprising extremely similar assets.

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ROCKIES  //  BRONCOS

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THE Rockies 70/86 record posted today has the team at 11th place in the National League, faring better within the NL-West, 32/42, a 10 point instead of the 16 point NL/inter-league differential. Even so, the Rockies have failed to achieve a significant winning record versus any of the NL-W teams, as of Tuesday 5/13 against Arizona, 4/11 against San Francisco, 9/7 vs. the Dodgers and today 9/10 vs. San Diego. The NL-W fourth place Rockies are currently 20 games behind first place Arizona. If the Rockies were a NL-Central team, they’d still be in fourth place, if an NL-East team, last place.

It’s been a tough year for the Rockies since early May, but actor Tom Hanks told America in a flick, “There’s no crying in baseball.” It’s time to rub the tears away, time to let go of the blame game, time to move on and find the flaws, do the fixes.

Important is seeing the good as well as the bad and ugly, for example, the top two teams in the NL today are the Phillies and the Brewers. In the 2011 series of games between the Rockies and the Brewers, the Rockies accrued 44 runs and the Phillies and Brewers combined for 31. Were total number of runs a measure of which team is best among the three, we could argue that the Rockies can prevail over the NL’s top two franchises. Add total number of runs for the year as a measure and the Rockies become one of the NL’s top five teams. Obvious from this is that on base percentage and circling the bases are NOT among the team’s major issues, while OBP and base running failing to convert to "game-winning" runs is a major issue.

Why, then, have the Rockies failed to produce enough runs to win games and rise above .500? As I see it, among super spoilers are (a) Marginal pitching, (b) Inability of the infield and outfield to always make up for pitching that has allowed doubles, triples and home-runs, (c) Failure to match expectations with insurance, in effect, no Rockies pitcher offsetting the early loss of Jorge De La Rosa or of Ubaldo Jimenez going flat, while the only batter making up for Gonzalez and Tulowitzki being off to a slow start was Todd Helton, (d) Not enough power bats in the middle and back end of the line-up, (e) Unexpected injuries forcing the Rockies to stay a work in progress, never a fully coordinated team, too often a new lead-off man, most series starting without the same batting order. . .  Other reasons for the Rockies losing record probably go deep, are identifiable and can be eliminated. One thing is certain: the Rockies bad season has not been the fault of any one individual, not GM Dan O’Dowd, not manager Jim Tracy, not a particular coach or trainer, not an individual position player---all have shared in the crash and burn season.

So, will the Rockies manager and front office attempt to solve problems via effective leadership principles, along with solutions for the long term that have been thought through carefully, with all possible consequences analyzed? Or, will the team’s leadership take shortcuts too soon and at shallow points across the pile-up of issues?  

BRONCOS & THE TITANS ---  The 190 rushing yards gained by the Oakland Raiders against the Denver Broncos included 150 executed by only one Raider, a running back. Also, the Broncos lost to the Raiders by only three points. These differentials have failed to demonstrate that the Broncos are already an out of the race team. Contrary to media comments about the Broncos performance in game one of the season, the Broncos haven’t shown signs of wimping far back instead of forward. Last week, the Broncos matched the Tennessee Titans 1-1 season record by whipping the Cincinnati Bengals, though the Titans takedown of the Baltimore Ravens in the same week was from a 13 point lead, more commendable than the Denver 24-22 win.

Not good for the Broncos is that the Titans knockdown had a lot to do with the Titans offense exploiting Baltimore’s defense weaknesses close to and in Baltimore's red zone, which is where a segment of the Broncos defense can be vulnerable. And, if statistics play out as prologue, Titans quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has an advantage over Broncos starting QB Kyle Orton in greater number of yards accrued to date, and from just two sacks compared with Orton being sacked seven times, which signals the importance of pass protection for Orton and underscores the upgraded sack execution that the Broncos need to complete against Hasselbeck.

But if the Broncos starting and reserve receivers can do what they’ve done in place of already injured players while receiving protection on the run, the Titans defense could experience meltdown before the third quarter. And, if the Broncos secondary can play to the hilt and interfere effectively, the Broncos defense won’t be giving back points gained by Orton and his receivers. My take is this: if the Broncos lose, it won’t be by much, worst case seven points. Then again, it’s an NFL season---a wider point spread could occur if an injury pattern that the Broncos began experiencing last week turns out to be viral.

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BRONCOS // ROCKIES           

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BRONCOS ---  AFTER the Broncos loss to the Raiders, the team’s head coach John Fox reminded fans and media that the defeat was only by three points, 20-23, surely an attempt to build some confidence in the losing Broncos starting quarterback, Kyle Orton, in Orton’s receivers and the Broncos defense. Sunday’s Broncos takedown of the Cincinnati Bengals can be interpreted as the reverse of that message, that a two point first win of the season mustn’t build and sustain over-the-top confidence and unrealistic expectations about the Broncos remaining a winning NFL franchise.

Yes, good things happened and could happen again. For example, QB Orton focused on running the ball as if the strategy had always been his game-winning preference, still completing 15 of 25 passes, five straight in the first quarter. The Broncos were certainly respectable for yards gained, rushing for more than 135 and passing for 187. Too, Willis McGahee completed 101 yards from 28 carries. And seeing no escape from having to initiate a next-guy-onto-the-field strategy, John Fox chose who that would be expertly, though Tim Tebow as WR wasn’t a main target selection by Orton. Moreover, the Broncos held the lead each quarter, by seven in the first, 10-3 at the half, 17-5 end of the third. Also, the Broncos defense became not just tough but a seamless wall preventing a fourth quarter Bengals drive from becoming the TD or field goal that would have made it a Bengals victory.

On the downside, well, injuries narrowed the aperture for a better than two point win over the Bengals---Dumervil down, Lloyd down, Royal down, Thomas down. If the disrepair continues, that last man from the bench necessity could dry up vs. the Tennessee Titans come Sunday. Too, as Denver sportswriter and President of Mile High Sports, James Merilatt, has pointed out, injury causation can be more than coincidence, it can actually be a training and preparation flaw of the sort difficult to fix in a week’s time, hopefully not viral . . .   but right now the Broncos being 1-1 with 14 games to go in the season isn't the worst situation.

ROCKIES ---  Swept this week by the San Francisco Giants, the Rockies can only choose to fight for respectability as a team that keeps trying to win in spite of a 70/82 record to date. Of some help, however, can be seven of the next and last 10 games of the MLB season, three versus NL-W last place San Diego (65/88) and four against NL-C last place Houston (52/100), prior to playing the Giants again for a three-game series to be held at San Francisco.

Though winning even all of the 10 games left for 2012 would define the Rockies as a losing ballclub (80/82), the team will have demonstrated a positive learning curve, improved skill-sets, tenacity and pride, which is what manager Jim Tracy is hoping for, but against tough odds from top Rockies players Todd Helton, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki being on the DL, while the Rockies pitching staff has been marginal and seems drained of near-term potential.

Probably best for the Rockies are three actions: First, press on, be the best that the team can be up against baseball’s numerous and varied situational factors as the season comes to a close. Second, begin thinking about new and improved rostering and preparation for next April. Third, outline procedures for determining all that caused the Rockies to go from being a team of great promise in April 2011 to fourth place and 15 games behind in the NL-W, an amazing irony in that individual Rockies players have done quite well, e.g., Helton, Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, Seth Smith and Dexter Fowler accruing high batting averages and significant OBP’s. Important, of course, is that no-one on the team should reach understandings about losses too quickly. Fallbacks like that experienced by the Rockies this year have surely been the result of multiple causes, no-one at this point in time being certain about the degree of harm inflicted by any one of the many causes.

END/ml  --- Comments welcome .  .  .          

                        (For more sports analysis, follow Mile High Sports Radio AM 1510, and Denver's best sports blog team, milehighsports.com --- ml)

ROCKIES // BRONCOS // NBA                          

ROCKIES   ---    NOT many aspects of a baseball game are more dispiriting than the early minutes of a first inning having your team behind 2-0 from an opponent’s home run and an RBI. Then comes the top of the second and your fielders blunder to the point of laughter, so now it’s Thursday, September 15 and the San Francisco Giants are walloping the Rockies 5-0 during the first of a four game series being played at Coors Field, the whipping a hurtful experience for the Rockies because the day before they beat the Milwaukee Brewers on the road, 6-2, a team that as of Wednesday held the same 87-63 record as the NL-West’s leading club, the Arizona Diamondbacks, ahead of NL-W fourth place Rockies by 16 games.

Rockies RHP Jhoulys Chacin was in bad form last night, allowing hits and runs and unable to tame Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who against Chacin managed a home run and an amazing triple, a double and a single. Yet the Rockies experienced glimmers of hope even without Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki, and though a guy named Gonzalez played in right field and came to bat and wore number five it just couldn’t have been the Carlos Gonzalez, for this fellow was dull at the plate and missed a catch that the real Gonzalez usually bags easily. Well, Carlos Gonzalez is entitled to an off night, he’s been having a good year, batting .297 as of Tuesday, with Helton and Tulowitzki ahead of him .302 and .304 respectively.

That brief tackle on hope for the Rockies began with a home run belted by Helton’s sub, Jordan Pacheco, and there were solid hits from Dexter Fowler, Mark Ellis and Chris Iannetta, and base-running raised the final score to 8-5, a relief in that those early innings signaled a shutout. And, the Rockies infield upgraded mid-game with several double plays, though a squeeze play between second and third base in the sixth inning fell apart needlessly, and Chacin’s wild pitches delivered extra bases for the Giants runners.

Friday's game two vs. the Giants became another Rockies  loss, and with no Rockies highlights to speak of although team defense appeared in better shape than the night before. Now the Rockies would have to take two games to tie the four game series vs. the Giants . . .  Of the now 12 games left to the season, five are against the Giants, followed by three vs. San Diego, then three vs. the weakest team in either MLB league, the Houston Astros. For the Rockies to finish the current season without heads hanging too low, the team must win the lion’s share of its remaining games by a better than weak margin.

BRONCOS   ---   BRONCOS Head Coach John Fox wants fans to remember that last week’s loss to the Raiders was only by three points, a score differential that does lift the Broncos  from suspicion of owning week-by-week embarrassments ahead of the season’s remaining games. Truth be told, the four pre-season games proved that the Broncos potential for winning more games than it will lose this year is alive and well and can result in many Sunday victories as long as the team executes what it knows to do effectively, and that means avoidance of the flaws that existed last week. So, if Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton starts and shows that his evasion, timing, throws and handoffs are still slow and no more accurate than last Sunday, then the Broncos head coach replacing him early on with Quinn or Tebow will make sense. But until that happens, Orton deserves better pass protection and his receivers need improved blocking. Too, the running game has to be the Broncos offense priority unless insurance exists from early on touchdowns and field goals and there’s an open WR for an easy throw. As for the Broncos defense, it has to be relentlessly seamless, no slack allowed, the pass rush a priority, Dumervil-style (maybe without Dumervil), as each cornerback runs and guards as if Usain Bolt surpassing a PB (possibly without Bailey).              

  

NBA  ---  IT’s practical wisdom on all fronts, it’s about preserving and sharpening skills, building strength and court endurance, and making money. It’s not betrayal, all these NBA athletes being ex-pats and playing for teams in Turkey, China, Israel, France and elsewhere outside the U.S. of A.

We shouldn’t be angry about it, it’s not as if these basketball greats will be playing for the Taliban Tombsuckers, the Qadaffi Screwballs or the al-Qaeda Nutcases. Actually, some of these athletes will pick up useful concepts about their game, in the manner that N.Y. Knicks star Carmelo Anthony gained greatly when countering foreign players during his tenure with the U.S. Olympic team. Besides, it’s like contributing to a grand balancing act in that more than half of America’s professional basketball teams have one or more players from a country outside the U.S.

So, who has been approached to be America’s basketball ambassadors in upcoming international games, and who may or may not have signed as of today? Here’s a quite partial list: 

• Deron Williams – Turkey
• Dwight Howard – Spain
• Kobe Bryant – Europe
• Amare Stoudemire – Turkey
• Kevin Durant –  China, or Europe
• Will Bynum – Europe
• Tony Parker – France
• Sonny Weems – Lithuania
• Dwayne Wade – Europe
• Reggie Williams – Spain
• Ty Lawson – Lithuania
• Kenyon Martin -  China
• Wilson Chandler - China
• J.R. Smith - China
• Allen Iverson - Turkey   

NBA execs once big on the idea of extended profits from further internationalization of pro- basketball could now be mulling over that old adage, “Careful what you wish for.”

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             ---  U.S. OPEN (Tennis)

             ---  NFL,  BRONCOS VS. RAIDERS

U.S OPEN, THEN & NOW ----  Phenom Novak Djokovic beating Spain’s Rafael Nadal underscored that not since Andy Roddick’s victory in 2003 has an American male won the U.S. Open (tennis). Nor has Wimbledon been championed by an American male since Pete Sampras, year 2000. And, no American man has won the French Open after Andre Agassi captured it in 1999. Nor has an American won the men’s Australian Open since Agassi in 2003. We’re addressing the much-prized four Grand Slam events of the tennis year, final victories denied to American men 39 times since 1999.

Yet in the two decades preceding 1999, U.S. men won the U.S. Open 14 times, Wimbledon 10, the French Open six and the Australian Open, seven. That’s 37 wins for U.S. men in that period. Truly noteworthy, of course, is a 28 year period starting 1968 when U.S. men championed the U.S. Open 21 times, John McEnroe a winner three years in a row, Ivan Lendl also three in a row. In that period, Jimmy Connors won the U.S. Open five times, a record broken years later by Swiss athlete Roger Federer owning the title five years straight, starting 2004.

And between 1992 and year 2000, American men won Wimbledon eight times, losing in 1996; and between 1981 and 1984 Connors and McEnroe shared the top honors at Wimbledon. And, no male player has gone past American Pete Sampras’ total championship wins at Wimbledon---seven, 1993-2000, excluding 1996. Moreover, the six U.S. male wins at the French Open were inside an eight year period, from 1984 to 1992, and the seven U.S. victories at the Australian Open were also within an eight year timeframe, from 1989 to 1997.

Why, then, the 21^st Century decline in U.S. male Grand Slam wins, which isn’t a new question, about which study papers and articles in the media could blanket the courts at each  Grand Slam venue? Some tennis analysts argue that the end of the Cold War freed up male athletes from other countries to practice, improve their skills and reach ultra-championship levels. Another argument says that all sports have been characterized in the poorer eastern bloc countries, and in Russia and China, as a way up from poverty, desire of which has been a driving force for excellence that many U.S. male athletes do not have because of higher levels of affluence.

Other analysts claim that there has always been a level playing field among the more than 100 countries that participate in sports, and that the U.S. periods of domination have been brief leaps in time for only a few U.S. athletes who could win the same competitions repeatedly. After all, the Grand Slam tennis matches have been happening annually for many generations and no nation has ever been super-dominant across the entire chronology of games, e.g., the first U.S. Open was held in 1881, Wimbledon 1877, the French Open, 1925, and the Australian Open, 1905. 

Another premise is that nationality has nothing to do with who becomes a champion, that the variables that allow for an ultra-athlete are mostly personal and local, ranging from desire to be great, to the lifestyle and financial costs of a career, to devotion to training and having the right coaches, also supportive family members and friends, plus how young one starts to train, and certainly not least a high level of mental and physical skills to begin with, including one’s mental approach to wins as well as to losses.

With all of this said, several analysts claim that reasons for the decline in U.S. male championships at major international tennis events could be all of the above, different in degrees depending on those athletes being studied. Yes, seen from our side of the Atlantic it would be “grand” to have an American male win a Grand---but anyway is it really that important when athletes such as Switzerland’s Roger Federer, Spain’s Rafael Nadal, Serbia’s Novak Djokovic, the United Kingdom’s Andy Murray and France’s Jo-Wilifried Tsonga can take center stage, show brilliance, inspire and cause us to forget or care about who comes from where? Tennis is a world game, there’s a reason for that Grand Slam tagline, “Open.”

NFL, BRONCOS VS. RAIDERS ( Monday, September 12)  ---  The pre-game dynamics were standard, appropriate: two first time coaches wanting to win their first game of the regular NFL season, the Broncos hoping to show that they’d burst clean and away from the previous year’s embarrassing finish, the Raiders eager to prove they could be other than steam-rollers offensively as well as defensively and could win a season opener “smartly.”

The Raiders beat the Broncos, 23-20. Not so smartly, however, but because the Broncos couldn’t implement enough of the team’s well-chosen tactics with sufficient coordination. Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton chose good plays for driving the ball forward, he saw the right options for the short or long pass, yet he and his receivers executed poorly, both misreading the pass length, receivers dropping catches, allowing fumbles and an interception, Orton sacked possibly more than any other QB has hit the dirt in a season opener, though Orton and crew had an effective third quarter, raising the points differential significantly.

And though the Broncos defense had forced the Raiders offense toward only minor gains at mid-field often enough, it couldn’t prevent the lapses, especially in its own territory, that allowed gaps for the Raiders to enact cliche TD’s and field goals.

In addition to the lack of synchronicity between QB and receivers, important to be looked at are other Broncos deficiencies in the offense, for instance, surely needing correction and betterment before game two of the season is Broncos "pass protection," so, too, Broncos receivers not being guarded when moving the football (defense within the offense). Yet---had Broncos kicker Matt Prater not missed his quite do-able FG attempt, and had a Raiders kicker failed to execute his record-breaking NFL FG distance exceeding 60 yards, well, the Broncos would have reversed the score and up-ended the Raiders.

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BRONCOS // ROCKIES

BRONCOS ---   ADVANTAGE, Broncos! That’s the appropriately predicted starting moment for this Monday night’s Denver/Oakland NFL opener. There are several reasons why. Let’s begin with the fact that though pre-season games are not part of the wins over losses that each NFL team craves during a regular season, Oakland having lost all four of its pre-season challenges takes its toll in a game that’s almost as much mental as it is physical. Such affects confidence at the same time that it intensifies a team’s desire to avoid failure, which, in turn, can create negative tension and cause players to try too hard and make mistakes. I would not eliminate this factor, though other factors should play a more important role in Denver causing Oakland to fall behind quickly and stay behind, for instance, Denver won two of its four pre-season matches and in three of them demonstrated strengths where Oakland had shown to be particularly weak, examples: (1) Denver proved to contain the more experienced quarterback in Kyle Orton and superiority re. QB/receiver teaming, plus effective QB matches with receivers new to the Broncos; (2) WR Brandon Lloyd exhibited once again his ability to be a magnet drawing the opposition’s defense away from Denver’s receivers working the running game just forward of the QB, as well as positioning himself for a QB switch to the long throw, doing so with greater speed and alacrity than his Oakland counterparts; (3) Not only is Elvis Dumervil back in form as the NFL’s Mr. Sack, he’s assisted by the as fast and punishing Von Miller for the sack; (4) The Broncos pre-season defense proved to be more pro-active than the Oakland defense, quite capable of forcing a Raiders offense to enact plays that cannot succeed.

BUT knowing one’s advantages can also result in overreach and unnecessary risk. It will do well for the Broncos to begin its first game of the season conservatively. A Broncos offense driving relentlessly to set up the guarantee of a field goal before attempting a TD makes good sense, which means concentrating on being able to drive at least to the enemy 40, but still being able to rush or pass forward inside the 20 so as to then fight for the TD. Should that TD attempt fail, the FG option is still there. Important, then, will be pass protection, Orton having enough time in the pocket to locate his best short pass and handoff options. Failure at this could lose space, time and potential points for the Broncos, possibly the game. Ironically, while this could occur, the weaknesses in the Oakland defense could present deep pass opportunities for Orton and his receivers to exploit, causing Orton to break from a running game strategy, with potential for missed throws in that the "attempt/caught pass ratio” is rarely ever 100 percent for any QB (thus the Coach John Fox demand for a Broncos run-the-ball season) .  .  .  As for the Raiders offense it will probably be forced into QB & receiver attempts to keep the ball in the air and deep, which will put significant pressure on the Broncos cornerbacks and the secondary to have to man up and enact interferences, torpedo-tackling and the intercept.

ROCKIES  ---  YESTERDAY the Rockies had 67 wins and 76 losses, team average .469, keeping the team in fourth place in the NL-W, a disappointing season indeed for an essentially talented ballclub. Commendable is that no Rockies coach, player or front office exec has run from the recent understandings of why this has happened. As cited in earlier columns by me and elsewhere in media, the Rockies have suffered since early May from a near-lethal combo of (a) insufficient depth of team-winning capabilities and (b) injuries, for example, the pitching staff has not been able to offset Ubaldo Jimenez’ regression from superiority to marginality or Jorge De La Rosa having been placed on the DL months ago, and no batters except for Helton and Smith were able to make up for Gonzalez and Tulowitzki getting a late start as high average batters; and, when Helton, Gonzalez, Tulowitzki and Smith gained higher on-base proficiency, only occasionally had Rockies batters exploited that good fortune with follow-on hits for a succession of runs for winning more games. So, the Rockies are now thinking about correctives and next season, of undoing the flaws within the pitching staff and searching for more reliable clutch hitters.

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BRONCOS ---   WHAT did Thursday night’s versus Cardinals game reveal about the Broncos and the team’s chances for a winning record in the upcoming regular NFL season? And what had the game uncovered about new Broncos head coach, John Fox? Answering the first question, if anything was obvious it was that the Broncos reserves may not be of the caliber needed to replace Brandon Lloyd, Elvis Dumervil, Champ Bailey and other top starters should they be injured early in the season, though Eron Riley proved to have positive juice as a starter, to wit: his catch of Tim Tebow’s pass for a 43 yard TD within a six play/94 yard drive, then his 89 yard run to just a few feet from a TD in the last quarter.

Also, pre-season game four suggested that neither Brady Quinn nor Tim Tebow should be a starting quarterback for the Broncos this year, unless the already selected starting QB Kyle Orton is injured or loses his mojo suddenly and completely.

As for Broncos head coach John Fox, his playing the reserves in the year’s final pre-season game was indeed wise. Not only did Coach Fox learn what the reserves were capable of so that he could better trim and arrange the Broncos 2011 roster, he opted for prevention of injuries to his already selected starting players during a game that wouldn’t count except as a recon into player-competencies that he was still unsure of. Losing starting players to injuries is bad enough, losing them in vain is worse.

Now to the QB question which shouldn’t be a question: Quinn or Tebow? My take is that both should be number two, and Mark Weber upgraded to more than a QB who’d play only if Orton, Quinn and Tebow are out on stretchers. Neither of the four are fully rounded QB’s, neither of near-perfection regarding every situation that a QB has to face, which is the case with more than 95 percent of QB’s in professional football. Orton seems to be the better leader when it comes to fundamental plays and conservative improvisation, especially within the passing game, while Tebow seems to be the less cautious, which he’d find himself wanting to suppress by playing enough minutes in the NFL, but until then he’s likely to fail more than succeed when driving the ball forward, which doesn’t mean that when success comes it can’t be spectacular.

Quinn is definitely a smart responder, having a good mind for what a particular situation calls for him to do, but he has to close the gap between what he chooses to make happen and the best way to execute. Weber seems to be more like Quinn than Orton or Tebow, a good thing in that he’ll prioritize the reading of situations and how to decide on the right response quickly. It’s my take that Coach Fox sees his QB options as described herein and that he’ll consider playing the backup QB’s as situations dictate, though Orton will start the season as first QB and remain so as long as the Broncos offense does well.

How will the Broncos offense perform under Orton versus the Oakland Raiders during the season’s opener? If Coach Fox can keep Orton rushing the ball forward with short but significant yardage in mind, instead of Orton being tripped up by his urges to pass the ball deep when a guarantee for the caught pass is almost nil, then we’ll see Orton placing points on the board. If that happens, it’ll be up to the Broncos defense to be the D that it was often enough in games one through three of the pre-season, rarely giving away the points gained by the offense. Coach Fox and Orton have a lot to work with, all to their advantage: Lloyd, Eddie Royal, Willis McGahee, Eric Decker, Riley. Key then and crucial for prevailing against Oakland will be what Coach Fox knows all too well from being a defense coordinator, pass protection insuring that Orton has the freedom to engage with his open receivers. If that works, the Raiders may be shedding tears even before endgame.       

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ROCKIES  ---  THERE can’t be a more frustrated MLB manager than Jim Tracy. And whatever high degree of frustration it may be, it is certainly justified, for the Colorado Rockies have become poster guys for the greater irony in professional baseball, that a ballclub can be better in skills than teams that keep leaving them behind. Yesterday the Rockies were .471 at 66/74, 14 games behind in the National League-West, yet the team and several of its players have done well in important game categories; for instance, by late August the Rockies had more total runs for the season than most other NL teams. In addition, as of Sunday the Rockies had a higher team batting average (.258) than the Arizona Diamondbacks (.249) and the San Francisco Giants (.239), teams in first and second place of the NL-West respectively. The Rockies also held a higher batting average than the NL-W Los Angeles Dodgers (.255), which tells us that when it comes to team batting average the Rockies are best in the NL-W.

Now add that the Philadelphia Phillies have a lower team batting average than the Rockies, (.254), 10^th best in the NL while the Rockies hold seventh place re. team batting average.

Too, the NL-W third place Rockies have won more games than they’ve lost against more than half of NL teams ahead of them in games won. Moreover, four Rockies players are among the 30 that have the year’s best batting averages in the NL (as of Sunday): Todd Helton (.306), Troy Tulowitzki (.305), Carlos Gonzalez (.298), and Seth Smith (.289). Helton and Tulowitzki are 10^th and 12^th respectively on this list. Moreover, Helton, Tulowitzki and Smith appear on this list before any players from the Diamondbacks, Giants or the Dodgers appear, except for L.A.’s Matt Kemp.

Way too often this year the Rockies have seemed like a football team that gets inside the opposition’s 20 yard line often and then never scores enough TD’s to win a game. They have been “weak in the clutch,” Rockies are up, two or three men on base, two out, then a strikeout and the half inning is over, not enough runs in the inning for the Rockies to overtake the opposition. The Rockies score until there’s pressure on the weak end of a line-up that fails to capitalize on the hits + base-running that comes primarily from Helton, Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, Smith or, yes, Dexter Fowler (now batting above .285).

Furthermore, in too many games the runs that the Rockies put on the board are given back to the opposition from weaknesses in pitching in the first six innings and from a bullpen unable to turn that around.

When it comes to the ERA’s of its pitching staff, the Rockies are third worst in the NL (4.36), hardly above Chicago (4.46) and Houston (4.53). Chicago and Houston have the two worst win/loss records in the NL. It certainly isn’t mere coincidence that the pitchers of the two worst teams in the NL also have the worst ERA’s, and that the best team in the NL, the Philadelphia Phillies, has the best total ERA (3.05). Look at this relative to the fact that the Rockies have a higher team batting average than the Phillies and that Colorado has four hitters ahead of Philadelphia’s hitters on the individual NL best batting average list. The lesson is simple, it’s Baseball 101: games are won from hits that result in runs, and runs without “outs” keeping the opposition from putting runs on the board are also crucial to winning games, which the guy on the mound has to contribute toward the most. So, the Rockies have played to win, but not enough to rise above .500 because of (a) the lack of follow-on hits when bases are filled, and (b) the weakened pitching factor, that is, Ubaldo Jimenez a disappointment, Jorge De La Rosa and Juan Nicasio on the DL, Aaron Cook unable to return to his better pitching self, Jason Hammel having the worst ERA in the NL (above 5.0).

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