Wednesday, December 28, 2011

NFL'S AFC-WEST: BRONCOS & THE CHIEFS, RAIDERS VERSUS CHARGERS

For more sports analysis. go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1520 or FM93.7, and to Denver's best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. Editor of this page, Marvin Leibstone, Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com.

NFL ---   OF course, the 8-7 Denver Broncos want to win Sunday's game versus the Kansas City Chiefs because they are professional football players and that is what professional football players are paid to do---try to win, give their all.

But there are other reasons for the Broncos claiming victory over the Chiefs, for instance, finishing the NFL season at 9-7 instead of 8-8, therefore as a winning team above .500.

Moreover, by beating the Chiefs, and if the Oakland Raiders lose to the San Diego Chargers this weekend, the Broncos will be be set for post-season play as top dog/AFC-West.

Also, a Denver quarterback Tim Tebow win over a Kansas City QB Kyle Orton win could undo the publicly accepted idea of an Orton vendetta existing from Orton being let go by Denver at mid-season this year, even if the idea doesn't exist full-bloom (if it exists, at all), and at the same time a win over the Chiefs could put to rest whether Orton should still be with the Broncos, Tebow then remaining a bench QB (another silly notion).

The big question, however, is how can the Broncos prevail against the Chiefs on New Years Day?

Truth be told, a Broncos win has to include reliance on football fundamentals, for example, where Denver's offense is an issue the Broncos will need unyielding pass protection enabling Tebow to keep from being sacked and so he can find the right targets for handing off or passing the football, which means that Denver's running backs and wide receivers will have to keep evading the Chiefs defense successfully, with Tebow's passes containing the accuracy that empowers a successful catch.

So, a Tebow "possession result" will have to be that which has been his in past won games, in effect, numerous first downs leading to end-zone appearances, with Tebow having rush, short wide-angle pass or easy field goal options available.

As for the Broncos defense unit, more of "the basics" will be required, such as consistency at being a mobile and yet seamless wall keeping QB Orton from pass completions and from rushing well enough to achieve first downs, therefore denying the Chiefs from having red zone opportunities, "which means that the Broncos defense will have to rev up and improve its ability to force the Chiefs offense into positions where Orton and his unit could only fail."

RAIDERS & CHARGERS ---IF being motivated were all that it takes to win a football game, it would appear that the Raiders could have little trouble lording it over the Chargers this weekend. From beating the Chargers, and if Denver loses to the Chiefs, the now 8-7 Raiders could own the AFC-West, while it's too late for the Chargers to have a playoff billet under any circumstances. Yet this doesn't mean that the 7-8 Chargers would go soft vs. the Raiders, for the Chargers certainly want to end the season at .500 and not be recorded officially as a losing franchise.

Also, the Chargers winning its last game of the season could help erase that the team lost six games since Bye week, which followed a loss and then four wins that gave false hope. Whenever San Diego wins a football game, it's usually from "the fundamentals (Football 101)," from a ground-rushing offense finding holes in the opposing defense, while its defense keeps finding pass interference opportunies. Without that happening, the Raiders deep passing offense could overtake the Chargers.

ALL of this said, this page wishes all readers a most successful 2012, hoping, of course, that readers will continue to check us out during and after prefferred games.

END/ml

Monday, December 26, 2011

NFL: BRONCOS LOSE TO THE BILLS---ELEVENTH HOUR, CLOCK TICKING  // NBA: CHANGES & SOME BRIEF OBSERVATIONS

For more sports analysis go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

            UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT NFL SEASON, “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” WILL POST NEW EVERY MONDAY INSTEAD OF ON TUESDAY, continuing with a new post every Friday.  Editor, Marvin Leibstone. Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com

NFL ----    IT was a bad day before XMAS for the Denver Broncos on two counts, losing to the Buffalo Bills, 40-14, next the Kansas City Chiefs losing to the Oakland Raiders. Now Denver is 8-7 and tied with Oakland for numero uno of the AFC-West when hopes had been high for Denver being 9-6 today and Oakland, 7-8.

If Denver loses its last game of the season to the Kansas City Chiefs on January 1, and Oakland beats the San Diego Chargers next week, then chances of a Denver playoff berth will slip away (the Chiefs were able to beat the 13-0 Green Bay Packers in December, ending the Packers perfect record for the season, and, in October, Green Bay polished off the Broncos, 49-23, signaling a rough New Year’s Day for the Broncos versus the Chiefs). 

Two factors that sided with the possibility of a Broncos win over the Bills were AWOL throughout most of the second quarter and second half of the competition: Broncos starting quarterback, Tim Tebow, wasn’t primed for executing those plays that in the recent past had freed his best skills for rushing, or for his passing accurately when on the run, and a Denver defense seemed incapable of stopping Buffalo’s drives to where field goals could insure a winning game, even if only one touchdown were to occur.

Tebow became readable, and he hadn’t any new tricks. In the NFL, “quarterback redundancy” diminishes the quarterback greatly, “it’s game suicide.” Tebow had to be advertising his moves inadvertently, ditto his selected receivers. Starting in the second quarter, Buffalo’s defense kept suppressing Tebow and his go-to-guys (relentlessly!). Neither running back Willis McGahee, nor wide receivers Eric Decker and Eddie Royal, were able to break away for game-changing action (for each, there was no there, there). By endgame, Buffalo had 160 rushing yards to the Broncos 133, and 191 passing yards to the Broncos 164, but it was the four Tebow interceptions and a punt return for a Bills touchdown that pushed Denver beneath the margin of teams seeking playoff distinction.    

NBA  ---   Here are some major changes for the 2011/12 NBA 66-game season: Lamar Odom, from the L.A. Lakers to the Dallas Mavericks // Andre Miller, from the Portland Trail Blazers to the Denver Nuggets // Chris Paul, from the New Orleans Hornets to the L.A. Clippers // Chauncey Billups (formerly of the Denver Nuggets), from the New York Knicks to the Clippers // Tyson Chandler, from the Dallas Mavericks to the Knicks //  Mehmet Okur, from the Utah Jazz to the New Jersey Nets.

Where’s the drama? It’s in the questions:  How will the Lakers fare under its new coach, Phil Jackson gone? Can the Mavericks repeat? Will the Bulls be leading its division before mid-season? Will the Heat’s LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade actualize into the unbeatable tres amigos boasted of two years ago? Will the season’s surprise ascent be Michael Jordan’s Bobcats? Can the Denver Nuggets prove that teamwork provided consistently can trump star power, and win the team’s division, starting with a win over the Lakers on January 1? Will the Oklahoma City Thunder’s potential for being the West’s winning team show up early and jump ahead of the Mav’s? Will Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups change the direction and fate of the Clippers more than they had helped bring skills and wins for the Hornets and the Nuggets, respectively? Will Carmelo Anthony be this year's ppg-winning star of the East?

END/ml         

Friday, December 23, 2011

NFL: BRONCOS VS. THE BILLS  // NBA: DENVER NUGGETS, FAVORABLE ASSETS

For more sports analysis go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

            UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT NFL SEASON, “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” WILL POST NEW EVERY MONDAY INSTEAD OF ON TUESDAY, continuing with a new post every Friday.  Editor, Marvin Leibstone. Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com

NFL ---- THE Denver Broncos are a team that’s won six games straight this season. Tomorrow, they will face the Buffalo Bills, a team that’s lost seven straight. Presently, the Broncos are 8-6, recovering from last week’s embarrassing loss to the New England Patriots, 41-23. The Bills are 5-9 and an unlikely candidate for post-season competition, whereas the Broncos could own the NFL’s American Conference-West title easily if the Oakland Raiders (7-7) lose to the Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) on Saturday.

Denver’s six losses add up to 204 points given away, while Buffalo’s seven losses total 224 points given up. Also, Denver’s eight wins add up to 178 points, and Buffalo’s five wins total 167 points. This data suggests rough Denver/Buffalo parity, though Denver has given away more than 40 points per game three times, while Buffalo has let that happen only once, most of its losses being in the high 20’s.

Okay, the Broncos look a lot better than the Bills when it comes to a running game---2,283 Bronco rushing yards gained during the season so far, the Bills attaining 1,655. But the Bills look better when it comes to passing---3,354 season yards vs. the Broncos 2,463.

From past data, we can argue safely that the Broncos/Bills final score will include a difference of only a few points, no matter which side prevails, unless, of course, the magic from Denver’s quarterback Tim Tebow resurfaces, sticks like Velcro and delivers the needed numbers, with the Broncos eliminating problems that got in the way vs. the Patriots, namely fumbles, insufficient protection of a QB in the pocket, inaccurate QB passing and lack of connectivity between QB-passing and selected targets, also a Broncos defense that had moments when, as a phalanx protecting an end zone, it stayed penetrable, plus moments when the Denver secondary couldn’t run fast enough for effective tackling and interferences (Fact, and Football 101: all NFL team defenses commit these errors in every game they play, it’s those defenses keeping these errors to a minimum that prevent an offense from obtaining a string of touchdowns and field goals). 

Last week, however, the numbers based on past achievements indicated that the Broncos could beat the Patriots, which failed to occur. The take on tomorrow’s game is really anyone’s guess.

NBA:   Denver Nuggets General Manager, Masai Ujiri, has been like that character in the classic western film, The Magnificent Seven, who rides from place to place rounding up top guns, but Ujiri has been traveling more by telephone than by other means, putting together a competent franchise for getting a job done, that is, for winning more than 50 percent of the about-to-be 2011/12 NBA season’s 66 games. Like that team-builder in the movie, GM Ujiri’s round-up now comprises top guns, in other words, capable starters and reserves, among them, point guard and returnee Arron Afflalo, returnees PG Ty Lawson, center Nene, also big men Wilson Chandler, Chris Andersen, Al Harrington, also Kenneth Faried, Timothy Mosgov, Kosta Koufas and Andre Miller.  

What makes Ujiri’s chosen players unique? Possibly it’s that neither player is unique in ways calling for a hardwood five to be four guys feeding a superstar. There is real conduciveness within today’s Nuggets for the dynamics of “teamwork,” a policy that allows for the larger array of floor strategies and tactics that win basketball games, which has been Nuggets head coach George Karl’s preferred policy for coaching success.

Not that there won’t be freedom for Ty Lawson to achieve what he did the other night in a pre-season game against the Phoenix Suns. Lawson scored 21 points within 26 minutes. Note, however, that against the Suns, Lawson also put up seven rebounds, while second PG Andre Miller delivered six rebounds and 12 assists, signaling “Team first, all else left in the locker room.”

END/ml

          

Monday, December 19, 2011

NFL: BRONCOS LOSE TO PATRIOTS // NBA: DENVER NUGGETS

For more sports analysis go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

            UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT NFL SEASON, “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” WILL POST NEW EVERY MONDAY INSTEAD OF ON TUESDAY, continuing with a new post every Friday.  Editor, Marvin Leibstone. Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com

NFL ----  OVER and under, up and down, inside and out as the NFL’s Green Bay Packers lost a game yesterday after winning 13 straight. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts won its first after losing 13, and Tim Tebow’s fourth quarter game-winning leadership occurred unexpectedly in a first quarter as the Broncos led the New England Patriots, 13-7. The football Gods must have decided to sleep all day, leaving matters to a stoner.

In the fourth quarter versus New England, Tebow moved only one of his miracle plays forward for a touchdown, when in previous games he’d been able to deliver more, transitioning from a marginal performance over three quarters to win off of last minute heroics. And, the Broncos defense failed to stop the Patriots offense often enough in the second half, enabling the Patriots 41-23 takedown.

The situational awareness that the Denver defense displayed in previous Sunday outings was slow to actualize and then couldn’t maintain except periodically---the Patriots quarterback and his receivers were able to evade a Broncos defense that seemed to lack catch-up speed after knowing just who had the football and where, end result: tackles and blocks late and weak, some never materializing, and a defense line that was penetrable, especially within Denver’s 20.

It’s hard to fault Tebow alone for the loss to New England when he captained numerous deep drives, unfortunately most of them getting nowhere, reminding observers of former Denver QB, Kyle Orton, who often failed getting that final leap onto enemy territory for a game-winning TD, though Tebow did cross over for that fourth quarter TD from an 80+ yard drive.

That extra fourth quarter Tebow magic didn’t come about fully due to a lack of open receivers for him, and because several of his fourth quarter passes were late, or inaccurate, from the Patriots defense forcing him to pass when he couldn’t rush the ball. And when Tebow did rush the ball, the fourth quarter Patriots defense had his likely moves in its sights just enough to get in his way more easily than during the first three periods of the game. 

An irony is that of the last nine Tebow-led challenges, yesterday’s loss to New England included Denver’s third highest number of points-per-game obtained. In addition, Tebow rushed for 93 yards and his two TD’s from 12 carries, becoming the game’s leading ball carrier, and he completed 50 percent of his 22 pass attempts, gaining 194 yards total, respectable compared with his earlier pass achievements, even if opposing quarterback, Tom Brady, completed 23 of 34 attempts for 320 yards.  

Good news for Denver is that the Oakland Raiders lost to the Detroit Lions on Sunday, securing Denver’s edge atop the AFC-West at 8-6. Noteworthy for re-match fans is that a Denver team remaining the AFC-West leader could again face the now 11-3 Patriots, a team that is still the AFC-East’s leading team, both then pulling for an AFC championship.

NBA  ---   SING no sad songs for the Denver Nuggets, for enough of last year’s team will return for the 66 game 2011/12 NBA season. That means Denver’s starting five could include center Nene, point guard Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried, or Hamilton Jordan and/or Andre Miller, though gone possibly or unavailable early on will be point guard, J.R. Smith. These were among starters who surprised the competition in an early post-Carmelo Anthony era, positioning the team for a 2010/11 post-season berth.

Another upside for the Nuggets is that its December and early January schedule includes games that can quickly empower the team for a quick rise to readiness for the short NBA season. It’s two pre-season games will be against the Phoenix Suns, games that will likely allow the Nuggets to be its own “adjustment bureau,” that is, it will be able to test and fix enough offense and defense plays without being penned in by a bullying presence denying enough maneuverability and shooting opportunities, in a way preparing the Nuggets for its December 26 challenge vs. the current NBA championship team, the Dallas Mavericks, which seems to be good preparation for what’s next, the aggressive Portland Trail Blazers on December 29, this becoming, in turn, a kind of practice session for meeting the L.A. Lakers on December 31, and again, January 1.

Not that the rest of January will present the Denver team with an easy glide across eight games away and eight home games. Rather, until February the Nuggets will be up against teams that the Nuggets are roughly at par with, so there will be a fair number of opportunities for the Nuggets to be a winning team before meeting the Mavericks and the Lakers again in February.

END/ml

Friday, December 16, 2011

NFL: BRONCOS VS. PATRIOTS // MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL: TRADES & ACQUISITIONS

For more sports analysis go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510, and Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

            UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT NFL SEASON, “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” WILL POST NEW EVERY MONDAY INSTEAD OF ON TUESDAY, continuing with a new post every Friday.  Editor, Marvin Leibstone. Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com

NFL ----  FANS and analysts have been saying that the Denver Broncos Tim Tebow-led offense can make the New England Patriots defense strategy irrelevant and seem puny because NE’s defense has been rated as one of the worst in the NFL, but these analysts need to re-evaluate their claim, for just nine weeks ago critics were saying the same thing about the quality of Denver’s defense, which turned around almost overnight into one of the more credible fight systems in the league, helping Denver to win seven of eight games since the team’s Bye week.

And while the Patriots defense has been vulnerable when it comes to chasing down the league’s better wide receivers and limiting a star quarterback’s assault, that weakness may not matter as much against a Denver quarterback who still appears slow finding pass and rush options post-flip, which means that Tebow’s pass and handoff protection will have to be fast and crushing versus opponents attempting a lightning-fast sack. Too, Tebow’s favored go-to guys, wide receiver Eric Decker and running back Willis McGahee, will probably be targeted early on during every attack play, possibly double-teamed, and so Tebow will need to have “alternatives-in-waiting.”

Also, this business about Tom Brady beating Tebow, or Tebow dominating Brady, isn’t “the game.” Neither will be challenging the other physically and head-on, only their endgame statistics will signal who has had the better showing, and, let's ‘fess up, one game of 16 isn’t enough of a story for accurate judgments. Were Tebow or Brady thinking about themselves now and who might be the best QB, either team would be at risk of losing on Sunday from the distraction, both QB’s would deserve a hefty fine for putting ego ahead of winning a football game from command of the other’s territory and from gained yardage.

Moreover, the 8-5 Broncos will need to have insurance against those early game periods when, in competition after competition, Tebow has been unable to achieve enough first downs and put up points, and that has to come from a defense unit no less vibrant than Denver’s during the team’s last three games, when interceptions, recovered fumbles and long and accurate kicks for field goals were the game-changers and the foundation for Tebow’s amazing fourth quarter tactics .  .  . Denver can beat the 10-3 Patriots by a touchdown and two field goals providing that the Broncos defense unit and chosen kicker can again be a backdrop for Tebow’s mostly unexpected maneuvers when under extreme pressure, especially when it’s about having to get a job done against the clock.

MLB ---  IT’s been a given ever since legend Ted Williams said it, that the hardest thing to accomplish in sports is hitting a baseball well. But equally hard, as many a franchise general manager will agree, and which the book and movie Moneyball surely suggests, is the putting together of a winning MLB team, primarily because there aren’t enough hitters/fielders like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, Troy Tulowitzki, or pitchers like Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander or Tim Lincecum to go around for 30 MLB teams that must carry 40-man rosters that include at least 25 players ready to go afield on game day. Think of it this way: for the practice of medicine, music, art, literature, journalism, running a corporation and being a major investor, there’s an enormous amount of talent at or just above-the-margin in our country, but very few Picassos, Hemingways and business and technology leaders like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, or an investor like Warren Buffet. It’s definitely that way with professional baseball, no-one yet able to match the records set decades ago by Ted Williams, Pete Rose, Joe DiMaggio, Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax.

Every MLB GM wants hitters nearing if not exceeding a .300 batting average and having golden glove stats, plus Cy Young-capable pitchers; however, both are quite rare---most major and minor league players finish a season below .260 and the better starting hurlers usually win between 10 and 12 games instead of the desired 20, which is why trades and new acquisitions are usually high risk, resulting often in only names changing and numbers on uniforms being different.

Another reason for the difficulty associated with a GM building a team is the way money available for doing so shifts with each contract signing. Let’s say a GM hires a superb hitter/third baseman at double-digit millions per year over a five-year period. That amount can prevent a GM from spending big for more players of high quality, so he starts giving away draft picks for a suddenly needed catcher or relief pitcher, neither of better than average quality, or the GM gives away a valuable player for the catcher’s position so as to avoid giving up draft picks.

Then there’s the unexpected, a player who achieved greatly in a previous year but is now  playing so poorly he’s hurting the team and needs to be traded---because of the urgency, a GM might accept a weak deal, sacrificing a draft pick and, in turn, getting a player who delivers little as a season continues. Think of the many millions of dollars that a team would have wasted obtaining 2010 Colorado Rockies ace, Ubaldo Jiminez, before the start of the 2011 season, when his rep was five stars +---ugh!

A lot of MLB GM’s will study power-trends and decide on approaches to overcome them. If the clubs in his team’s regional division are high-end pitching-staff heavy, the GM can attempt to match that with pitchers of equal or higher performance quality and also try to counter with a  superior batting order for extra bases and RBI’s, plus, if he can get lucky, a long ball slugger, here again a very costly proposition and surely why the GM portrayed in Moneyball, the Oakland A’s Billy Beane, sought ways to prevail against power-trends with data-supported/personnel-acquisition strategies that emphasized on-base percentage, which helped to lower costs dramatically.

As stated on this page in a recent column, smart trades are about getting rid of vulnerabilities while receiving, in turn, strengths replacing those vulnerabilities, though a GM could be forced to trade away a highly qualified player for a relatively slow achiever. This strength-traded-for-a-vulnerability tactic happens when a team needs the money being offered to it for the effective ballplayer---the trade is almost a cash bonanza, in that the team acquiring the strong player is probably also buying the remainder of the player’s contract.

The phrase, “Nothing lasts forever,” is a sports truism, and it’s why sports franchises remain a dynamic, always changing. Shortstop Derek Jeter has more than 16 years in the majors, all with one team, the NYY, but that is unusual---the average professional sports career is under seven years, which makes one wonder why a team would want to pay 32-year-old Albert Pujols double-digit millions per year for multiple years, though his being worth that money for the early term of his contract is a likely happening.

Greatness in sports is fleeting---time is a God that no athlete can compete against and win. Because of this, there are no guarantees that trades and acquisitions will always pan out. No-one should have high expectations, then, from most MLB buys of the current off-season, for they usually involve the very good but not consistently great player, in effect, the athlete that GM’s hope will, if hitter and fielder, provide enough base hits and forced outs to help keep a team well above .500, and, if a starting pitcher, deliver a low enough ERA, keeping damage to a minimum, never handing impending distaster off to a bull pen.

END/ml

Monday, December 12, 2011

BRONCOS DEFEAT THE BEARS IN OVERTIME // NAVY BEATS ARMY---AGAIN! // HEISMAN TROPHY

For more sports analysis go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510, and Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

            UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT NFL SEASON, “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” WILL POST NEW EVERY MONDAY INSTEAD OF ON TUESDAY, continuing with a new post every Friday.  Editor, Marvin Leibstone. Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com

BRONCOS DEFEAT BEARS      WERE a crystal ball really able to present the future, it would have revealed eight weeks ago that the new Denver Broncos starting quarterback, Tim Tebow, would win seven of eight games, and that the Broncos would, after putting down the Chicago Bears yesterday, be an 8-5 instead of a losing NFL franchise, first place in the NFL’s American Conference-West, with a post-season billet just around the corner.

A true seer describing the future in October would have addressed the strange nature of Denver’s comeback wins, most being fourth quarter turnabouts due to totally unexpected happenings, often the result of set-ups from a Denver defense that, from intercepts and fumbles, ran the football for points in addition to recovering it for Tebow-led first downs nearing field goal and touchdown range.

The Broncos 13-10 takedown of the Bears in overtime yesterday was certainly an example of the Denver team’s canny exploitation of mistakes made by an opposition, for example, the Bears Marion Barber taking himself out of bounds, later allowing a fumble. Unique, too, was the Broncos use of a time/space equation that always exerts enormous pressure after the two-minute warning and then in overtime, in that a Tebow-led offense “beat the clock” from pass attempts that reached a 59 yard line from which Denver kicker, Matt Prater, produced a FG allowing a 10-10 tie as the fourth Q ended. Then, in overtime, Tebow’s passes to Demaryius Thomas placed Denver at a 51 yard line from where Prater kicked the FG that purchased the game.

Until mid-third quarter of the Denver/Chicago game, the Broncos and Bears were tied at zero-0, essentially from defense units of both teams limiting each other’s assault tactics. In the first three quarters, Tebow and his opposite QB were pinned back often, seemed hesitant and without options in the pocket. Tebow threw several passes that were dropped.

On the bright side for Denver was that from kick-off on, its defense seemed so remarkably improved over the initial seven games of its NFL season that observers claiming that as a victory in itself would have appeared quite rational---even if the Broncos were to drop to the Bears from the third Q on, it would not have been by much, thanks to Denver’s improved defense, which got tougher in the fourth Q, recovering that fumble that allowed Denver’s offense to charge ahead and put winning points on the board. And, any other talk about improvement has to include Tim Tebow’s second half passing, especially in the fourth Q when he completed nearly all of his many pass attempts.

Next Sunday, the Broncos will meet post-season bound/American Conference-East first place team, the New England Patriots. Week after, Denver will meet the below .500 Buffalo Bills. Last game of the season for Denver will be January 1, versus Kansas City. Losing the three upcoming games would surely leave Denver at the margin, 8-8, no easy stride then to a playoff venue.    

ARMY/NAVY ---  Ten wins, thus a decade of victories for Navy against Army from Saturday's win, 27-21, the 112th contest between the two service-academy football teams. Yet Army could take some solace from the event---Saturday's loss included the slimmest point spread that Army has lost by to Navy during the 10 year period. Also, Army commandeered a decent running game, scoring two touchdowns in the second quarter that tied the game 14-14, though early in the third Q, Navy’s QB, Kriss Proctor, rushed for a TD, score now 21-14.

Army retaliated in the second half with QB Trent Steelman’s 25 yard pass for a TD, creating a 21-21 game. Then, late in the fourth Q, Navy scored two field goals, Army unable to bounce back. Still, Sunday’s Army team went to the wall, did the full nine yards, so to speak, it has no reason to doubt its competency for future competition.

HEISMAN TROPHY  ---  This year’s Heisman trophy winner is Baylor quarterback, Robert Griffin III, a.k.a., RG3, 77th to win the award, and the 10th quarterback to win along with one running back since year 2000, and, of the 11 schools represented across the last decade, two have had winners twice, Oklahoma and Southern Cal., though the most popular of the winning QB’s to go on to play in the NFL has been today’s starting Denver QB, Tim Tebow, who won the Heisman in 2007, school: Florida State. That only running back to win the Heisman since year 2000 is Mark Ingram, Alabama, year 2009.

In the previous decade (1990-2000), three running backs and a tailback won Heisman trophies. Yet from 1980 through 1990, only three QB’s won the Heisman. This seems to signal a kind of elimination progression, possibly from emerging QB preference in the minds of those who select the Heisman winner, or it signals that college football teams have gone to playbooks calling mostly for QB-led rushes and their TD-passes as opposed to handoffs and short passes for running backs and wide receivers playing the larger role that they had in the past. Or, the QB-Heisman dominance could be mere coincidence, if there is such a thing in football.

END/ml

Friday, December 9, 2011

BRONCOS VS. BEARS  // WILL ARMY BEAT NAVY? // TIGER WOODS & THE WAY BACK.

For more sports analysis go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510, and Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

            UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT NFL SEASON, “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” WILL POST NEW EVERY MONDAY INSTEAD OF ON TUESDAY, continuing with a new post every Friday.  Editor, Marvin Leibstone. Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com

BRONCOS VS. BEARS  ---  SURELY the Denver Broncos could qualify as the NFL season’s comeback story, having won five games in a row after a 2-5 record. Now at 7-5, the Broncos will be challenged by the Chicago Bears at Mile High Stadium on Sunday, a team that is also 7-5, and while the Broncos are currently 2-3 playing at Mile High and the Bears 5-2 playing at home, the Broncos are 5-2 away from Denver and the Bears 3-2 at home, the implication a sort of almost equal match-up.

And within the NFL’s American Conference, Denver is tied for fifth place, and, in the National Conference, Chicago is tied for fourth, another sign of nearly equal prowess. Moreover, the two teams are roughly the same in average number of yards gained per game since the start of the season, Chicago with 326 per game, Denver, 315.

It’s in the passing game where Chicago’s data implies an edge if the quarterback replacing Jay Cutler (Caleb Hanie) can be as effective as Cutler (out from injury), in that Chicago has averaged 206 passing yards per game, Denver accruing 155, although Denver tops Chicago in number of rushing yards per game, 158 over 119.

Too, across Denver’s last five games it gathered up a total of 123 points, while Chicago totaled 118 from its last five games, another indication of competition involving teams of fairly equal power and skills. 

However, an edge can also be talked up for Denver, as well, in that Chicago lost its last two games to Kansas City and Oakland, teams that the Broncos have defeated this season. Perhaps the more informed take on the upcoming game, is this: “If Denver wins, it will be from a contradiction, from conventional and also unorthodox football,” that is, the conventional being Denver’s defense as a consistent spoiler of the Bears passing efforts via a strong and smothering secondary and a line pressuring Chicago’s quarterback to throw poorly or get sacked, and the unconventional being a Tim Tebow-led offense that will have scored from overriding the Bears defense with the totally unexpected, something as far from a traditional offense as could be accomplished, possibly from forced and unplanned maneuvers with hand-offs and short passes to receivers, or Tebow himself evading and moving lightning-fast, the result being lots of first downs, then a touchdown or field goal, similar to last week’s Denver win vs. Minnesota, when the Broncos achieved numerous first downs in the last half.

But Chicago's defense won’t be easy to outwit and penetrate. A Denver win will be near the margin, possibly from a three or four point lead, as happened for the Broncos vs. San Diego two weeks ago, a win with grit and spur of the moment innovation instead of what had been strategized prior to kick-off.  

ARMY/NAVY--- THE annual Army/Navy game has remained among the country’s steadier football rivalries throughout the decade, in spite of the growing popularity of college games outside the service academy realm, tomorrow’s challenge being the 112th Army/Navy match, dominated by Annapolis having 55 wins over West Point’s 49, last year’s game Annapolis 31, West Point 17.

Annapolis has been dominant for nine straight seasons, West Point last beating the Midshipmen in 2001, 27-16. This year, however, it’s anyone’s guess as to which can win, for both schools are of similar 2011 records. Though not high-end by any kind of call, Navy is at 4-7, Army is at 3-8.

Analysts are hanging with Navy by more than a touchdown, possibly because Navy ranks in the top five among college teams rushing the football more than relying on a passing game. Army also prefers a run the ball strategy, but Army is far from having accrued the greater than 312 rushing yards that Navy has obtained with one game left to the 2011 season.

So, Army’s chances to win could exist within a power defense that forces Navy’s quarterback to pass the football more than rush, as Navy’s quarterback has a poor pass completion record. This said, Army hasn’t been a high-end passing team, either. Unfortunate, too, is that Army’s defense has not been steady at derailing an aggressive field assault, which has been Navy’s best shot all season. BUT---the game of football doesn’t care about what’s been; it only cares about what a team can do “in the Now,” that is, post-kickoff.

In sum, expect College Football 101 on Saturday: the team that breaks into and ruins the other’s running game will be the team that prevails.

TIGER WOODS ---  Having  won a major golf tourney for the first time in two years isn’t the lighted torch for immediately being recognized as comeback athlete of the year, even if you are Tiger Woods and you’ve won the Chevron Challenge and jumped immediately from 52d in the world rankings to 21st, but it is an official leap forward and Woods is still the most popular name in American golf circles---there’s a lot of belief in him still, accompanied by hope that he’ll get his true groove back soon and stay with it.

Yet if Woods is going to go all the way and return to being, say, among the top five players in professional golf, it will be a slow ascent, continuing with the current Abu Dhabi go-round..

What’s to hold Woods back? A deep and thorough look at the question advises that only Tiger himself could get in the way, and that the Chevron win could be an indication that he has won a battle against those un-nameable impediments that can interfere with an athlete’s performance when, for whatever reason, he or she has experienced a great deal of public embarrassment.

Sure, some superfine athletes can return to their game after committing a crime and never lose their touch, while most exceptional athletes have more normal reactions to such mistakes, they grieve, though many fail to know when to get off the grief bus and they are never the same again, their game drops considerably, they can’t recover---, which probably isn’t Tiger Woods.

That Woods hasn’t walked away from his troubles and gone into retirement and isolation, plus the fact that he’s faced humiliation squarely and with acceptance over an extended period of time, such suggests that he contains more than enough self-confidence for a return to championship level, while during the Chevron challenge his better skill-sets were back and shining.

END/ml

         

Monday, December 5, 2011

NFL: BRONCOS DEFEAT THE VIKINGS // COLLEGE: LSU & GEORGIA  //  MLB.

For more sports analysis go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510, and Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

            UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT NFL SEASON, “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” WILL POST NEW EVERY MONDAY INSTEAD OF ON TUESDAY, continuing with a new post every Friday.  Editor, Marvin Leibstone. Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com

NFL  ---     THE Denver Broncos defense remained fully committed to getting a job done versus the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Though it couldn’t prevent a two-point conversion in the first quarter and soon Vikings touchdowns and field goals before the first half ended, the Broncos defense managed two game-turning interceptions, one for a TD, the other late in the fourth quarter, which allowed the Denver offense to be FG-capable and upend the Vikings, 35-32.

Against the Vikings, Denver’s defense got the ball back to quarterback Tim Tebow enough times for Tebow to manage five first downs in the second half, accrue two TD’s in the third quarter and exploit a final possession in the fourth that became two FG’s after the two-minute warning. That second FG followed well-crafted up-the-middle rushes that used up valuable minutes, disallowing the Vikings enough time to retrieve the football and score points possibly keeping the Broncos on loser’s footing. In other words, by rushing the football repeatedly from inside the Vikings ten with less than a minute to go before endgame, the Broncos offense was able to “rush the clock,” leaving just seconds for that winning Broncos FG to occur.

The Vikings defense kept the Tebow-style offense from having points in the first quarter until the quarter nearly ended, when the Broncos managed a TD, and it held the Broncos to zero in the second quarter, though when the game ended the Broncos offense had totaled up 202 yards.

Denver's QB Tebow finished the game with 10 of 15 passes completed, plus captaincy of two TD’s, his offense having rushed for 150 yards. During those last seconds of the game, when Denver rushed the ball so as to set up for the winning FG, Tebow was, without question, a self-sacrificing “closer” by not attempting what he’s succeeded at so often in his career, that fourth quarter wall-busting breakthrough, or leaping arc, onto an opposition end-zone from less than five yards.

The Denver win vs. the Vikings is now team insurance, in event that the Broncos lose next week to the Chicago Bears and the week after to the New England Patriots. Other good news for the Broncos is that the Oakland Raiders lost to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, 34-14, and the Chicago Bears may be losing steam, having lost to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, 10-3. Denver is currently 7-5, holding first place in the American Conference-West, suddenly ahead of Oakland. By dominating Chicago and NE in coming weeks, and if Oakland keeps losing, the Broncos will be post-season bound without fear of any backsliding altering the influence of division rankings; they will be 9-5 after winning seven straight games.

COLLEGE ---   Number one LSU humiliated Georgia on Saturday, 42-10, winning the SEC Conference Championship, becoming the only undefeated team among the season’s top 25. Following a start that progressed slowly, LSU rallied in the third quarter vs. Georgia by scoring 21 points. More memorable than anything in the contest, however, was LSU’s Tyrann Mathieu returning a punt with a 62-yard run for a TD and then a punt return toward acquisition of LSU’s final TD, the win bringing LSU’s win record to 13-0.   LSU will now play Alabama for this year’s BCS National Championship.

Other top 25 teams winning big, that is, teams with only one loss for the season, are Alabama (11-1), Boise State (10-1), Houston (12-1) Oklahoma State (10-1), Stanford (11-1), and Virginia Tech (11-1). Biggest upset among these six teams on Saturday was Houston experiencing its first crash of the season, losing to Southern Mississippi, 49-28.

MLB   ----   IF there’s a lesson from all that talk in the book and movie MONEYBALL about the trading of ballplayers, it’s that a team’s general manager may have you thinking that he’s trading people, but if trades are done wisely he’s trading a vulnerability for a strength---otherwise, why bother?

So, let’s look at the vulnerabilities of the Colorado Rockies and what the team’s front office has looked for to reconstitute for the 2012 MLB season, starting with vulnerability number one, the lack of one or more starting pitchers that can control a game from the get-go, endure for six or more innings, win three or more of their every five starts and maintain ERA’s below 3.7, without question a very tall order, given that ace hurlers are at a premium.

Other Rockies vulnerabilities include the lack of a bull pen that always makes the best of a good situation and that can make the best of a bad situation, with closers that force enough strikeouts to prevent the loss of a lead. Also, with Chris Iannetta to the Los Angeles Angels, the Rockies have need of a primary catcher who can hit for RBI’s regularly enough, and the Rockies have lacked a third baseman who fields as good as Rockies shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, with as accurate an arm for fast delivery to first baseman, Todd Helton; too, a third baseman who can add hitting power to the middle or back end of a lineup.

The Rockies GM hasn’t wasted any time doing what must be done to avoid repeating the team’s lackluster 2011 performance, “fourth place, thus second from the bottom in the National League-West and 11th in the NL.” So far, a promising starter for 2012 (spring training and pre-season games begin March 3) is LHP Drew Pomeranz, who came from the Cleveland Indians in the trade for former Rockies ace, Ubaldo Jiminez.

The catcher eyed as Iannetta’s replacement is Willin Rosario, of 22 home runs achieved last year while playing for the Rockies Tulsa, Oklahoma affiliate, a catcher with a fine arm for those fast throws to second base while capable of seamless coverage of home plate. The third base possible is Nolan Arenado, from Class A Modesto, California, having batted over .380 last year.

Back to the Rockies will be several hitters with batting averages above .260, among them, Troy Tulowitzki (302), Todd Helton (.302), Carlos Gonzalez (.295), Seth Smith (.284), Dexter Fowler (.266). For Mark Ellis (.274), it’s to the L.A. Dodgers, and Ty Wittington will be elsewhere in 2012, like hurler, Aaron Cook. The Rockies 2011 winningest 2011 pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin (11-14) will return, so will Matt Belisle (10-4, in 2011). A different closer than Houston Street seems to have been a preference, his 29 saves being from among 69 games played in 2011. Prayers are that LHP Juan De La Rosa will be fully recovered from injury, and “highly improved at the broken places,” a proper phase for that which the Rockies front office is seeking for the team’s entire roster.

END       

Friday, December 2, 2011

NFL:  BRONCOS & VIKINGS  //  NBA

For more sports analysis go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510, and Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

            UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT NFL SEASON, “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” WILL POST NEW EVERY MONDAY INSTEAD OF ON TUESDAY, continuing with a new post every Friday.  Editor, Marvin Leibstone. Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com

NFL  ---   HOW might the Minnesota Vikings try to defeat the Denver Broncos on Sunday? Surely with priority given to disrupting the pass and rush protection that Denver quarterback, Tim Tebow, has been receiving in recent games, hoping Tebow will throw the football way too often and too abruptly, thus deliver a high number of incomplete passes; and by exploiting the possible loss of Denver linebacker, Von Miller, and of wide receiver, Eddie Royal, for neither could be afield on Sunday because of injuries (undecided as of this writing).

The loss of Von Miller and Royal could thin Denver’s strengths but not greatly. Yes, Von Miller can sack quarterbacks before they find actionable options for striking forward (he’s accrued 10 successful sacks during 11 games) and Royal is an above-the-margin receiver for Tebow’s handoffs and short passes, unplanned or otherwise. But with Von Miller gone, there’s still Denver’s LB, Elvis Dumervil, who has brought the sacking of QB’s to an art form, and for Tebow’s often preferred handoffs, or short passes, there’s Denver running back, Willis McGahee, and for the longer throw there’s swift and canny wide receiver, Eric Decker (fact: both can respond quickly and effectively to the unexpected Tebow innovation, time and again).

And if the Denver defense is as focused and impenetrable as it has been since defeating Oakland on November 6, the Vikings offense won’t be seeing much of the Broncos end zone. There’s a consensus that the Vikings could be scoreless if the Denver defense is as effective as it was last Sunday against the San Diego Chargers.

Important is that the Broncos defense think of the Vikings offense as a training element, specifically for what they’ll have to do when playing against the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots later in the month (the Vikings offense is close enough in style to the Chicago and New England offense squads for such to happen). It is from this notion that the Denver vs. Vikings game becomes pivotal for the Broncos, a necessary win + readiness preparation for Denver's continuing ascent toward post-season competition, a climb that can be reinforced significantly from wins vs. Chicago and New England.

A Denver win vs. Minnesota will support the team’s hold on second place in the NFL’s American Conference-West, behind the Oakland Raiders. Should the Broncos lose to Chicago and to New England, but not afterward to weaker Buffalo or to the Kansas City Chiefs (last two games of the season), the Broncos will then finish the NFL year at 9-7, destined for a go at the AFC championship .  .  .  It’s likely that the Broncos will take the Vikings down and rise to 7-5, and from more than a TD.

*  *  *
NBA ---   THE hustle in many front offices for team development, in effect, for buys, trades and good riddances, will dominate the NBA until December 9, when franchises start training camp. Free agents will seek change, other players will resist trades, and what is seen today will seem different when America’s professional basketball heats up starting December 25.

In some cities, however, teams will eventually appear to be much the same, although names and numbers listed on rosters won’t be the same, that is, a lot of high hopes via buys and trades won’t be panning out: a handful of teams will learn that they obtained roughly the same as that which exited in the past, or something worse.  

Of course, models will emerge for handling change or no-change wisely, and one of the models could be from how the Denver Nuggets manage the challenges that the team is now faced with, namely that during the last regular NBA season it obtained a new/old team, in effect, players new to Denver’s playing style and head coach George Karl’s expectations, alongside team veterans, three of whom are now free agents: Nene, J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin, each vital to how Denver has planned to compete in the upcoming 66-game season.

If the three free agents choose to leave the Nuggets because the Denver front office hadn’t made an attempt to keep them on board, and Denver can’t obtain suitable replacements, well, the outcome won’t be pretty; and if Denver urges all three to leave and decides to save millions of dollars by gambling on acquisitions of questionable players, then the outcome could also be foul.

Making sense for the Nuggets, so it seems, is doing what it takes to keep the three on board. Here’s why: in spite of the number of years that the three have been with Denver, Nene, Martin and Smith haven’t peaked, they are still piling on sufficient value if not of high-end star power, and it’s obvious from readings of the mostly upward graph-lines of their performance records. Too, while the three are not among the top players in the NBA with regard to their particular position titles, they are extremely capable when it comes to crossing over from their positions to other positions. In other words, Martin can shoot like an effective point guard when neccessary and he has shown promise as a floor leader, and Nene can block and rebound like a center or forward and has shown an ability to provide the assist effectively and to innovate plays at the glass, and while Smith’s high card has been his three-point shooting he’s most capable of a swift drive to the basket for that shock-and-awe layup or dunk (so what if he's now and then difficult to get along with). Moreover, the three have served to help educate and lead the team’s new arrivals under game circumstances resulting from George Karl’s wise directions. What’s the real point being made here? How about a take on that old adage, “If it aint broke, why fix it?”

END/ml