NFL: BRONCOS VS. PATRIOTS // MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL: TRADES & ACQUISITIONS
For more sports analysis go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510, and Denver
UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT NFL SEASON, “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” WILL POST NEW EVERY MONDAY INSTEAD OF ON TUESDAY, continuing with a new post every Friday. Editor, Marvin Leibstone. Comments to: mlresources1@aol.com
NFL ---- FANS and analysts have been saying that the Denver Broncos Tim Tebow-led offense can make the New England Patriots defense strategy irrelevant and seem puny because NE’s defense has been rated as one of the worst in the NFL, but these analysts need to re-evaluate their claim, for just nine weeks ago critics were saying the same thing about the quality of Denver’s defense, which turned around almost overnight into one of the more credible fight systems in the league, helping Denver to win seven of eight games since the team’s Bye week.
And while the Patriots defense has been vulnerable when it comes to chasing down the league’s better wide receivers and limiting a star quarterback’s assault, that weakness may not matter as much against a Denver quarterback who still appears slow finding pass and rush options post-flip, which means that Tebow’s pass and handoff protection will have to be fast and crushing versus opponents attempting a lightning-fast sack. Too, Tebow’s favored go-to guys, wide receiver Eric Decker and running back Willis McGahee, will probably be targeted early on during every attack play, possibly double-teamed, and so Tebow will need to have “alternatives-in-waiting.”
Also, this business about Tom Brady beating Tebow, or Tebow dominating Brady, isn’t “the game.” Neither will be challenging the other physically and head-on, only their endgame statistics will signal who has had the better showing, and, let's ‘fess up, one game of 16 isn’t enough of a story for accurate judgments. Were Tebow or Brady thinking about themselves now and who might be the best QB, either team would be at risk of losing on Sunday from the distraction, both QB’s would deserve a hefty fine for putting ego ahead of winning a football game from command of the other’s territory and from gained yardage.
Moreover, the 8-5 Broncos will need to have insurance against those early game periods when, in competition after competition, Tebow has been unable to achieve enough first downs and put up points, and that has to come from a defense unit no less vibrant than Denver’s during the team’s last three games, when interceptions, recovered fumbles and long and accurate kicks for field goals were the game-changers and the foundation for Tebow’s amazing fourth quarter tactics . . . Denver
MLB --- IT’s been a given ever since legend Ted Williams said it, that the hardest thing to accomplish in sports is hitting a baseball well. But equally hard, as many a franchise general manager will agree, and which the book and movie Moneyball surely suggests, is the putting together of a winning MLB team, primarily because there aren’t enough hitters/fielders like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, Troy Tulowitzki, or pitchers like Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander or Tim Lincecum to go around for 30 MLB teams that must carry 40-man rosters that include at least 25 players ready to go afield on game day. Think of it this way: for the practice of medicine, music, art, literature, journalism, running a corporation and being a major investor, there’s an enormous amount of talent at or just above-the-margin in our country, but very few Picassos, Hemingways and business and technology leaders like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, or an investor like Warren Buffet. It’s definitely that way with professional baseball, no-one yet able to match the records set decades ago by Ted Williams, Pete Rose, Joe DiMaggio, Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax.
Every MLB GM wants hitters nearing if not exceeding a .300 batting average and having golden glove stats, plus Cy Young-capable pitchers; however, both are quite rare---most major and minor league players finish a season below .260 and the better starting hurlers usually win between 10 and 12 games instead of the desired 20, which is why trades and new acquisitions are usually high risk, resulting often in only names changing and numbers on uniforms being different.
Another reason for the difficulty associated with a GM building a team is the way money available for doing so shifts with each contract signing. Let’s say a GM hires a superb hitter/third baseman at double-digit millions per year over a five-year period. That amount can prevent a GM from spending big for more players of high quality, so he starts giving away draft picks for a suddenly needed catcher or relief pitcher, neither of better than average quality, or the GM gives away a valuable player for the catcher’s position so as to avoid giving up draft picks.
Then there’s the unexpected, a player who achieved greatly in a previous year but is now playing so poorly he’s hurting the team and needs to be traded---because of the urgency, a GM might accept a weak deal, sacrificing a draft pick and, in turn, getting a player who delivers little as a season continues. Think of the many millions of dollars that a team would have wasted obtaining 2010 Colorado Rockies ace, Ubaldo Jiminez, before the start of the 2011 season, when his rep was five stars +---ugh!
A lot of MLB GM’s will study power-trends and decide on approaches to overcome them. If the clubs in his team’s regional division are high-end pitching-staff heavy, the GM can attempt to match that with pitchers of equal or higher performance quality and also try to counter with a superior batting order for extra bases and RBI’s, plus, if he can get lucky, a long ball slugger, here again a very costly proposition and surely why the GM portrayed in Moneyball, the Oakland A’s Billy Beane, sought ways to prevail against power-trends with data-supported/personnel-acquisition strategies that emphasized on-base percentage, which helped to lower costs dramatically.
As stated on this page in a recent column, smart trades are about getting rid of vulnerabilities while receiving, in turn, strengths replacing those vulnerabilities, though a GM could be forced to trade away a highly qualified player for a relatively slow achiever. This strength-traded-for-a-vulnerability tactic happens when a team needs the money being offered to it for the effective ballplayer---the trade is almost a cash bonanza, in that the team acquiring the strong player is probably also buying the remainder of the player’s contract.
The phrase, “Nothing lasts forever,” is a sports truism, and it’s why sports franchises remain a dynamic, always changing. Shortstop Derek Jeter has more than 16 years in the majors, all with one team, the NYY, but that is unusual---the average professional sports career is under seven years, which makes one wonder why a team would want to pay 32-year-old Albert Pujols double-digit millions per year for multiple years, though his being worth that money for the early term of his contract is a likely happening.
Greatness in sports is fleeting---time is a God that no athlete can compete against and win. Because of this, there are no guarantees that trades and acquisitions will always pan out. No-one should have high expectations, then, from most MLB buys of the current off-season, for they usually involve the very good but not consistently great player, in effect, the athlete that GM’s hope will, if hitter and fielder, provide enough base hits and forced outs to help keep a team well above .500, and, if a starting pitcher, deliver a low enough ERA, keeping damage to a minimum, never handing impending distaster off to a bull pen.
END/ml
No comments:
Post a Comment