NFL:  Week 13, “Projections;” Broncos & the Buccaneers.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:    WE could think confidently that the NFL American Conference’s 10-1 Houston Texans will be 11-1 after this Sunday’s Texans/Tennessee Titans game, for the 4-7 Titans are second from the bottom, AC South.

We could also believe that the National Conference’s 11-1 Atlanta Falcons could have the same result, but on Sunday, December 9 (NFL Week 14), versus the NC South’s last place team, the now 3-8 Carolina Panthers. The Falcons have been relentless winners except on November 11 (Week 10), losing to the 5-7 New Orleans Saints, 31-27. Last night, the Falcons defeated the Saints, 23-13---the Saints are next to last, NC South.

But on November 18 (Week 11), the Texans almost lost to the currently 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars (last place, AC South), and during November the 3-8 Panthers withdrew from shame by fighting well enough against the now 8-3 Denver Broncos (1^st place, AC West) and vs. the 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NC South), in spite of losses to these teams.

Earlier in the NFL season, the 3-8 Panthers (second worst team in the league),  defeated the 5-6 Washington Redskins (NC East), 21-13, and last week they beat the 3-8 Philadelphia Eagles (NC East), 30-22.

Also, the AC West’s last place franchise, the 1-10 (ugh!) Kansas City Chiefs, almost defeated the 8-3 Broncos during Week 12. Moreover, the 11-1 Falcons win against the 6-5 Buccaneers on November 25 (Week 12) was by only a single digit, 24-23. 

A point to be made, then, is that it’s not too late in the NFL’s 16 game season for some upsets (any betting based on this assumption, not advised!).

What is quite certain, however, is that the Texans and the Falcons will be post-season contenders for their conference championship titles, highly competitive re. Super Bowl contention.

And, it’s very likely that five other teams will maintain playoff candidacy, vying for a conference title and a go at the Super Bowl, among them, the 8-3 Broncos, the 8-3 New England Patriots (1st place, AC East), the 9-2 Baltimore Ravens (1st, AC North), the 8-2 San Francisco 49ers (1^st, NC West), and the 7-4 New York Giants (1^st, NC East).

There are two teams that have maintained strong playoff possibility and that are separated for division leadership by only  a single game, the 8-3 Chicago Bears (1st, NC North) and the 7-4 Green Bay Packers (2d, NC North).

Eight teams will be struggling to reach or stay barely above .500, among these, the 5-6 Miami Dolphins (AC East), the 6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (AC North) the 6-5 Cincinnati Bengals (AC North), the 6-5 Seattle Seahawks (NC West), the 5-6 Redskins, the 5-6 Dallas Cowboys (NC East), and the 6-5 Minnesota Vikings (NC North), the 6-5 Buccaneers, the 5-7 Saints.

Six franchises will surely stay below .400, the 1-10 K.C. Chiefs (AC West), the 3-8 Cleveland Browns (AC North), the 2-9 Jaguars, the 3-8 Eagles, the 4-7 Detroit Lions (NC North), the 3-8 Panthers.

Broncos, Buccaneers.

Denver running back, Knowshon Moreno, demonstrated last week that he’s a credible/formidable asset replacing injured RB, Willis McGahee, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t have it easy as they try to undo the pass protection that has been a significant assist for Denver quarterback, Peyton Manning, with Moreno offering Manning enough space and time to find his throw options, or the option of a handoff to Moreno for those 4.8 to 5.6 yard gains per rush.

Too, while in 2012 the Buccaneers quarterback has completed 199 of 349 passes for 2,761 yards and 21 touchdowns, Denver’s Manning has completed 277 of 409 passes for 3,260 yards gained, resulting in 26 TD’s. Within the passing attempt and completion realms, QB Manning will definitely dominate on Sunday. As to how many of Manning’s completions will translate into touchdowns and field goals, that’s always another story, the visions of success usually favoring Manning. Related here, and a plus for Denver, is that Denver’s linebackers, Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, have a combined total of 22 sacks. The total number of sacks delivered by five Buccaneers linemen is less, 18---the  pass rush scoring will likely be Denver’s from kick-off on.  

Denver’s pass protection is what could give its offense the required edge for maintaining a first quarter lead vs. the Buccaneers, Manning captaining two or more drives filled with small gains buying first downs and then that throw to receivers Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, or Brandon Stokley, for end zone occupation and then a TD or field goal. Of value here for the Broncos is that the Buccaneers defense secondary has been among the worst in today’s NFL.  

And, the Buccaneers offense will probably be at the effect of a Broncos secondary that has been more mobile, and more between the football and opposition receivers, than in many a season.  

A win for Denver on Sunday will be the team’s seventh straight.

This page’s pick:  Broncos, 21, Buccaneers, 10.

END/ml      

NFL:  WEEKS 12 & 13; BRONCOS DEFEAT CHIEFS  

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:   WE’RE at the cusp of a last segment of four among 16 games of the 2012 NFL season, and seven of the eight division leading teams are up by two or more wins, the eighth being the National Conference North’s 8-3 Chicago Bears, up but by one over the 7-4 Green bay Packers.

Leading the NFL are the NC South’s 10-1 Atlanta Falcons and the American Conference South’s 10-1 Houston Texans. The AC East’s 9-2 Baltimore Ravens are third in the league, and all other division leading franchises have eight wins.

The only two division leading teams with four wins ahead of second place franchises are the AC West’s Denver Broncos ahead of the 4-7 San Diego Chargers, and the Falcons ahead of the 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Meanwhile, 18 of the NFL’s 32 teams are still below .500, the worst being the AC West’s 1-10 Kansas City Chiefs, at .091, next worst, the AC South’s 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars. Only three of the 18 teams below .500 are close to reaching .500, the AC East’s 5-6 Miami Dolphins, the NC East’s 5-6 Washington Redskins, and the NC South’s 5-6 New Orleans Saints.

AC West leading team, the Broncos, lost games this season to AC East leading franchise, the 8-1 New England Patriots, and to the AC South’s Texans. Losing to either in the 2012 NFL playoffs, and to the AC North leading franchise, the Ravens, means no Super Bowl appearance for the Broncos. But the Broncos losses this season haven’t been catastrophic, respectively re. the Patriots and Texans by six and 10 points. Scratching the Broncos from a possible Super Bowl slot at this time is premature, in spite of the Texans amazing record. A December 16 regular season Broncos vs. Ravens game could advise whether the Broncos will have heft going after the AC crown.

Within the NC, Green Bay could leap ahead of Chicago, but from the year’s stats it appears that the Falcons will lead the NC and be at the Super Bowl, according to the current popular consensus, “facing the Texans.”

Broncos Defeating the Chiefs, 17-9.  Sunday’s Broncos vs. Chiefs game underscored a truth about the NFL, this: the worst teams in the league can prevent the best from humiliating them, possibly embarrassing the winner. Denver’s first half performance was as the Kansas City Chiefs have been throughout most of the season, and the Chiefs defense in that half was more like that of the Denver Broncos of Denver’s recent wins. The second half had the Broncos come alive somewhat, but against a Chiefs team that was anything but, more like underlings losing in practice to better, though still stumbling squads.

The Broncos won by eight points of the 10 that this page predicted last week, and, yes, a win is a win, and you can’t fault a Broncos defense that can keep an opposing team from scoring a touchdown (the Chiefs points were from three field goals).

Noteworthy was Denver’s 104 more yards gained over the Chiefs, from an averaged 5.8 yards gained per play, 7.0 per pass play. Denver's quarterback, Peyton Manning, completed 22 of 37 passes for 285 yards, while the Chiefs QB, Brady Quinn, completed 13 of 25 for 126 yards.

Next up for the Broncos are the NC South's Buccaneers, an above .500 team likely to exceed the capabilities shown against Denver by the Chiefs on Sunday.

Another Broncos/Chiefs match will occur on December 30, Denver’s last game of the regular season. Informed guesses have the Denver team finishing the season at 11-5. 

END/ml                

 

NFL:  WEEK 12, STATUS REPORT; BRONCOS & CHIEFS  

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:    LAST night, the 10 wins and one loss Houston Texans defeated the four wins and seven losses Detroit Lions, 34-31, becoming this NFL season’s first franchise to own double-digit wins. Now being the winningest 2012 NFL franchise as Week 12 approaches, thus one game up on the 9-1 Atlanta Falcons, the Texans are surely a post season contender for February’s Super Bowl.

And, the Texans have four games to go that they can win possibly by 14 or more points each, keeping them as the NFL’s 2012 best team, finishing the year at 15-1.

But dominance may not be all that easy for the Texans, for two of its final challenges will be against the 6-4 Indianapolis Colts, a team that’s been rising steadily and holds second place behind the Texans in the NFL’s American Conference South.

Also, the last two wins purchased by the Texans were in overtime after experiencing a deficit, suggesting a Houston slowdown in power and skill.

The Falcons are also in a mostly safe but not necessarily cool and justifiably ready-to-celebrate position, though sure to be a post-season threat. Of the team’s six games left, it could find that going against the 6-4 New York Giants can be troublesome. The Giants, last season’s Super Bowl winner, holds first place, National Conference East, a game above the 5-6 Washington Redskins, which defeated the 6-4 Pittsburgh Steelers last night, 38-31.

Week 12’s third winningest franchise, the 8-2 Baltimore Ravens, will be facing the 4-6 San Diego Chargers on Sunday.

The Ravens remaining six games can qualify as an uphill struggle, similar to that up ahead for the NFL’s fourth winningest franchise, the 8-3 New England Patriots. In addition to vs. the Chargers, the Ravens will be facing the Redskins, then the AC West’s first place/7-3 Denver Broncos, soon the Giants. Meanwhile, the Patriots six games starting Sunday will include bouts vs. the Texans and the 7-4 San Francisco 49ers, 1^st place, NC West.

Favoring the Patriots for end of season value is that they have the only four game lead among the eight division-leading franchises, above second place in the AC East, the 4-6 Buffalo Bills. The Falcons have a three game lead, too, above NC South’s 6-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The only other division leading team that has three games up are the Broncos, ahead of the 4-6 Chargers. 

The teams way at the bottom, that is, those having won only one game during 11 weeks of play, are the 1-9 Kansas City Chiefs and the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars.

As to which of the eight NFL divisions has the most wins accumulated during those 11 weeks, within the AC it appears that the AC South and AC North are tied, 21 wins each.

Fewest total division wins within the AC belongs to the AC West, 15.

Within the NC, the NC South leads with 22 wins, fewest belonging to the NC East, 19.

Among Week 12’s nail biters will be the 7-3 Packers against the Giants, and the 7-3 Chicago Bears vs. the 6-4 Minnesota Vikings, in that the Packers and the Bears are tied for first place, NC North.

Broncos vs. Chiefs, Week 12  ---   FOR the Chiefs, defeating the Broncos on Sunday will take lots more than motivation and grit for ending the team’s seven game losing streak and putting a stop to Denver’s five consecutive wins. Quarterback Peyton Manning’s 2012 offense leadership not only includes 24 touchdown passes to date, which is twice that gained by K.C.’s QB, Matt Cassell; Manning’s number of first downs becoming TD’s is way out front from those of the Kansas City offense.

Too, while the Chiefs will do all that they can to exploit the loss of Broncos running back, Willis McGahee, to injury, those replacing McGahee are by no means fresh from a high school team---the differences will be slight, providing that QB Manning and those replacements have had sufficient practice time in the past week (hard to imagine that Manning hasn’t run them to ad nauseam by today).

Also, no team since-mid October has been able to undo enough of Manning’s drives from inside opposition territory for end-zone occupation and TD or field goal range, largely dependent on the well-timed pass connects of Manning to his wideouts, Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas.

And, since mid-October the Broncos defense hasn’t shown signs of limits to improvements in the pass rush, and in the secondary’s blocks and tackles vs. opposition wideouts, as well.

Probably the best, if not only chance that the Chiefs have for continued exploitation vs. the Broncos will be discovery of vulnerabilities within the pass protection unit that allows QB Manning to select and employ his throws and handoff options. While not perfect, that protection is much more swift and sealable than in early 2012 Broncos games, even with the sacks that occur vs. QB Manning, many from this QB hardly ever being risk averse.  

This page’s take, Broncos, 27, K.C., 10.

END/ml

NFL:  WEEK 11 ASSESSMENTS; Denver Broncos, AC West Leader // NBA: Denver Nuggets---forget the  slide

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:    WHEN holding first place of a division of the NFL, and up by three games with only one or two serious challenges among six or seven games left to play before a season ends, well, that’s a franchise that’s ready for post-regulation play, and there are four of these facing Week 12 of the 2012 round of 16 regulation games that comes to a close in December: the 7-3 Denver Broncos (American Conference West) being ahead of the 4-6 San Diego Chargers, and the New England Patriots (AC East) leading the 4-6 New York Jets, also the 9-1 Houston Texans (AC South) above the 6-4 Indianapolis Colts, and the 9-1 Atlanta Falcons (National Conference South) leading the 6-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Of note is that excluding a Patriots/Texans Monday night game (December 10), these franchises will not be facing each other during the remainder of the regular season, and neither has scheduled what is expected to be a serious challenge between now and December 31, though anything could happen given how last place AC South franchise, the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars, nearly took the Texans down on Sunday, leading the Houston franchise 34-20 until in the final quarter a Texans resurgence pulled ahead of the deficit for a 43-37 overtime win.

Closer races for the end-of season top division spot as Week 12 commences include the remaining leading teams, each up by one or two games. These are the 8-6 Baltimore Ravens (AC North) ahead of the 6-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, and the 7-6 San Francisco 49ers now above the 6-4 Seattle Seahawks (NC West), plus the 6-4 N.Y. Giants (NC East) leading the 5-5 Dallas Cowboys, and the 7-3 Chicago Bears tied with the 7-3 Green Bay Packers.

But 14 NFL franchises will go to Week 12 below .500, each division carrying a team that is .400 or below. That’s nearly half the entire league, a huge gap between winners and losers. For whatever reason, the divisions with the two best teams in the league, AC South and NC South (having, respectively, the 9-1 Texans and the 9-1 Falcons), they also contain two of the NFL’s three bottom franchises, the 1-9 Jaguars and the 2-8 Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars are joined at the very bottom by the 1-9 Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West).

Adding insult to injury is that the bottom-of-the-pile teams have remaining scheduled games vs. the top teams of the entire NFL, e.g., the Chiefs will be facing the Broncos twice by December 30, and the Jaguars will be up against the Patriots on December 23, and the Panthers are scheduled to face the Falcons on December 9. 

The current upside includes the 6-4 Indianapolis Colts (AC South) and the 5-5 New Orleans Saints (NC South) after their poor season starts, while the unexpected downside owns the 3-7, .300 Philadelphia Eagles (last place, NC East).

Denver Broncos  ---   Saying that the Denver Broncos have entered a new and promising phase in its development toward being a perennial NFL post-season franchise, such underscores a truth. Today’s Denver team isn’t just hot, having won five games in a row, the last against a team that could have been at its back for the AC West’s leading position. Surely the Broncos are close to being a model for how the best among NFL teams should look, approach and  play football, quintessentially professional in that a proper offense/defense balance has been achieved, the one aggressively supportive of the other.

No longer are the points gained by the Broncos offense turned useless by a Broncos defense giving away a greater number of points to the opposition. In fact, there’s a Denver defense that intercepts and runs for a touchdown, in addition to including what could be among the top three pass rush combos in today’s NFL game: Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, and Denver’s cornerback tackles and blocks have been from unexpected  moves, swifter with more accuracy and strength than displayed last season.

No matter the opponent this year, the Broncos have managed to achieve as many or more first downs as have adversaries, in either case converting those first downs into more touchdown and field goal opportunities, never losing a game without having scored the equivalent of two or more TD’s, and only losing to teams now leading their divisions, i.e., the Texans, the Falcons and the Patriots.

Note that Denver’s three losses to date occurred before the team’s Bye Week in October, implying that a meaningful learning curve from those losses has been paying off. For example, the Broncos offense isn’t suffering from “comeback syndrome” in order to close a fourth quarter deficit, which seemed the case in September and October. In recent games, the Broncos offense has had points on the board during first quarters, and the Broncos defense protected those points during most of the opponent’s upcoming ball possessions.

Of course, Broncos head coach John Fox, and quarterback Peyton Manning, have worked hard to turn vulnerabilities into strengths, e.g., priming the Broncos pass protection so that QB Manning could maintain multiple options and also a pre-planned and well-timed throw to wide receivers Eric Decker or Demaryius Thomas, to tight end Joel Dreessen for the shorter pass, and for handoffs and rushing to a favored running back, Willis McGahee.   

The Broncos two wins against the San Diego Chargers this year have demonstrated AC West supremacy, likely to sustain after Week 12’s game against Kansas City through to a last game of the season vs. K.C., December 30.

If there’s a downturn for the Broncos it’s that the team’s star RB Willis McGahee has been sidelined due to an injury and could be out for the rest of the season. But you can’t sell short the excellence of potential replacements, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman, and Lance Ball.

*    *   *

NBA   ---     Forget the away from home losses that dropped the Denver Nuggets from third to last place within the NBA/Western Conference’s Northwest Division. Today, the Nuggets are below .500 with five wins and six losses, but last night the Nuggets defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 97-92, an 8-2/.800 team and the WC/Southwest Division’s number one franchise, tied for numero uno of the WC along with the WC/Pacific Division’s 8-2 Los Angeles Clippers. Moreover, the Nuggets have already put a four game winning streak on the board, and within only a few weeks since the 2012/13 NBA season began the Nuggets have accrued impressive data, “the kind that points in the direction of an upswing and a higher slot within the season’s standings.” For instance, five of the Nuggets starters have been averaging double-digit points per game, each above 11.2, and four have scored more than 100 points since the season started. Add the Nuggets having put up more than 35 offense rebounds and nearly 300 defense rebounds, plus more than 400 completed field goals of close to 800 attempts. Meanwhile, those Nuggets players with the most minutes played in the season to date, they’ve also accrued the most points among Nuggets players, while having the better ppg averages, indicating “economy of force," that  is, a minimum of wasted shots, which is an attribute of teams that usually make the playoffs. Furthermore, five Nuggets players have double digit assists to date, and two have delivered double-digit blocks. As a team and before its recent road trip, the Nuggets led all WC opponents in FG attempts and FG percentages, offense and defense RB’s, blocks, total points and PPG average. By no means are the Denver Nuggets going to be anchored to last place of the WC/Northwest Division---they already have the same number of wins as second place team, the 5-5 Minnesota Timberwolves.

END/ml

NFL:  WEEK 11 & League-Beaters; Broncos vs. Chargers // NBA: Early Standings; Nuggets & the Heat.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:    AS of today, six of the eight division-leading teams have seven more games to play before the 2012 16-game NFL season comes to a close. One other team, the San Francisco 49ers (National Conference West) will play eight games, and the New York Giants (NC East), six.

But only five of the eight leading franchises are up by two games: the American Conference West’s 6-3 Denver Broncos are ahead of the 4-5 San Diego Chargers, the AC East’s 6-3 New England Patriots are leading the 4-6 Buffalo bills, the AC’s South 8-1 Houston Texans are above the 6-3 Indianapolis Colts, the NC West’s New York Giants are atop the 4-5 Dallas Cowboys, and the NC’s South 8-1 Atlanta Falcons are looking down at the 5-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

            So, more in danger of being tied for first place during NFL Week 11, or pushed back to second position within their respective divisions, are the AC North’s 7-2 Baltimore Ravens, chased by the 6-3 Pittsburgh Steelers, the NC West’s 6-2 SF 49ers having the 6-4 Seattle Seahawks at the their heels, and the NC North’s 7-2 Chicago Bears having the 6-3 Green Bay Packers close up.

            It’s the three division teams that are one game behind first place today that can change the season’s standings dramatically for Week 12, e.g., the Steelers will be challenging the Ravens on Sunday, possibly winning from the more productive and continuously improving offense led by Pittsburgh quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, a likely 2012 NFL MVP candidate, aided by a Ravens defense that has suffered recent injuries, esp. re. tackle, Haloti Ngata.

Too, the 49ers could go by the wayside on Monday night vs. the Bears, while the Seahawks take their Bye Week, given that last week the 49ers QB, Alex Smith, experienced a concussion, enough to slow him down with occasional blurred sight. However, Chicago’s QB, Jay Cutler, he also suffered from a concussion during Week 10 and will probably be replaced by backup Chicago QB, Jason Campbell. But, it’s the nearly impenetrable Chicago defense that the 49ers will have to undo to win, which neither Alex Smith nor his backup QB, Colin Kaepernick, can elude safely for enough times in a single game.

Meanwhile, on Sunday the Packers will be playing the 4-5 Detroit Lions (last place, NC North), a team that it is superior to regarding both offense and defense, and so could be leading the NC North by Week 12.

Not the game of the week but to watch anyway will be the 8-1 Texans vs. the 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars, if only to see just how great the quality gap can be between what could be the current season’s best franchise vs. what may be the league’s very worst. Will the Texans make it a slaughter with more than 40 points against the Jaguars meager few, like the Week Five Chicago defeat of the Jaguars, 41-3? Or, will the gap be a lot less, say, no more than a seven point difference? There’s only one positive note for the Jacksonville team---the Jaguars beat the now 6-3 Indianapolis Colts during Week Three, 22-17, a team that’s now holding second place, AC South.

            Broncos vs. Chargers.  A win against San Diego will more than suggest a 2012 AC West title for the Broncos, for it will put the Denver franchise three games up with upcoming games against teams that they have a better than fair chance for clear wins, that is, the Broncos will be playing against only one team of serious contention from Week 12 on, the Ravens, then four vs. teams currently below .500, among these contests two games vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, currently 1-8, last place, AC West. However, losing to the Chargers could put San Diego close enough to vie for first position, AC West.

            For the Broncos, a defense as tight and yet as mobile and as punishing as it’s been during the team’s last four wins will be key along with the momentum that can keep a Denver lead going from the first quarter forward, even if during the last meeting against the Chargers it was QB Peyton Manning’s fourth quarter dominance that caused a comeback from a high deficit, resulting in a surprising 35-24 win against the Chargers.

Of late, an overarching Broncos explanation for its recent victories could be “Consistency of power and skill shown from early initiative and a first quarter lead.” This means more of what’s been occurring game-after-game since Week Eight, QB Manning’s handoffs to running back, Willis McGahee, for those 3.5 – 5.0 gains in yardage mixed with short or deep passes to wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, or to tight end, Joel Dreesson, as the team reaches or is within the enemy end zone, but with its TD and field goal points remaining dominant from defense spoilage executed by cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Tony Parker and the pass rush involving Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller for the sack; and, let’s not set aside the intercepts and picked fumbles and kick returns that have led to TD’s for the Broncos, in effect, one cannot say that the new Broncos defense is the risk averse squad that existed early in the current season and throughout much of last year. This page’s take, barring excessive penalties and more than two QB sacks: Broncos, 24, Chargers, 17; if not, Broncos still the winner, by six or seven.

           

*   *  *

            NBA:   EVERY NBA season has had its few early surprises, and this year’s include the Charlotte Bobcats, which during last season won only seven games and lost 59. The Bobcats have won four of seven games played as of today, securing second place within the NBA Eastern Conference’s Southeast Division, three games behind the Miami Heat.

Another early surprise is the 3-5 Los Angeles Lakers occupying fourth place within the Western Conference’s Pacific Division, three games behind first place L.A. Clippers and only one up from last place team, Sacramento Kings. Last season, the Lakers finished atop its division and third within the WC behind numero uno San Antonio Spurs and second place team, the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Additional surprises are the Minnesota Timberwolves being at second place within the WC’s NW Division, up from last place during the 2011/12 season, and current second place WC Pacific Division’s Golden State Warriors having finished second from the bottom last season. 

Not surprising, however, is that many teams that finished high and quite low within the standings last season are those teams currently filling the top and very bottom positions of their respective divisions, among them, and leading their divisions or holding second place, are the Thunder, the Timberwolves, the Memphis Grizzlies, Spurs, the Clippers, the New York Knicks, the Heat, the Chicago Bulls, while among this and last year’s bottom-of-the-pile teams are the Portland Trail Blazers, the New Orleans Hornets, the Kings, the Toronto Raptors, the Washington Wizards and the Detroit Pistons.

The Wizards haven’t won a game yet, and they played seven, the number of games won so far by the league’s leading franchise, the Heat. Last season, the Chicago Bulls were the team with the most wins---50, followed by the Spurs, 49, then the Thunder with 47. The Heat won 46 but they became the 2011/12 championship team.

Nuggets vs. Heat.  A fourth period comeback almost gave the Nuggets/Heat game of November 15 to the Nuggets, which lost to the Heat, 98-93. The Denver team jumped forward from a 19 point deficit to command a lead briefly, and that is when the Nuggets seemed to stop being a team, when individual players appeared to take unnecessary risks, or went from cool to nearly out-of-control hot and ironically came up cold, namely Danilo Gallinari’s field goal attempt that became an embarrassing airball and his allowing a ball off court, it soon going to an opponent who scored. It seemed in those final moments of the fourth period that the Nuggets reverted to being like the Heat that showed up earlier, stars Lebron James and Chris Bosh doing their “star thing,” fed by lackey teammates; but then the Heat converted, they became like the usually teamwork-motivated team, the Nuggets, with the Heat’s Shane Battier and from the bench Norris Cole scoring well in addition to James, Bosh and Ray Allen bucketing, the three Miami stars often doing the rebounding and the passing, setting up plays, thus creating shooting opportunities for Battier and Cole. It is this that, more than anything else, more than even James’ 20+ points, that won the game for the Heat and that broke the successive 10 game losses that the Heat had suffered at Pepsi Center vs. the Nuggets since 2002, all in spite of a remarkable performance displayed by Nuggets reserve, Andre Miller, who played only three minutes during the first quarter, when the Nuggets were down by eight points. By endgame, Miller had scored 19 points. And, had Nuggest guard, Ty Lawson, played at his usual best, the outcome could have been different: Lawson has been averaging 13 points per game this season---he was 0-7 vs. the Heat.

END/ml

NFL:  WEEK 10 RESULTS; BRONCOS, PANTHERS // NBA:  WINNERS, LOSERS; DENVER NUGGETS vs. MIAMI HEAT.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:    NO longer is the current NFL season led by a franchise waving the flag of a perfect record, for the NFL National Conference South’s Atlanta Falcons are now 8-1, having lost to the New Orleans Saints (NC South), Sunday, November 11, a day when five of the eight division-leading franchises could boast two or more wins over second place teams.

Facing NFL Week 11, the Falcons are three up from 5-4 Tampa Bay (NC South), while ahead by two games are the 6-3 Denver Broncos (American Conference West), the 6-1 New England Patriots (AC East), the 8-1 Houston Texans (AC South), and the 6-4 New York Giants (NC East).

Threatened by the 1GB second place teams are the 7-2 Baltimore Ravens (AC North), chased by the 6-3 Pittsburgh Steelers (AC North), the 6-2 San Francisco 49ers (NC West) by the 6-4 Seattle Seahawks (NC West), and the 7-2 Chicago Bears (NC North) by the 6-3 Green Bay Packers (NC North).

Only one division third place franchise has more than four wins, the 6-4 Minnesota Vikings (NC North), and only one last place division team has four wins, the 4-5 Detroit Lions (NC North).

Still at the very bottom of the pile are the 1-8 Kansas City Chiefs (AC West), the 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars (AC South), and the 2-7 Cleveland Browns (AC North) and the 2-7 Carolina Panthers (NC South).

As predicted, the playing field for upper echelon teams has leveled some, and the gap between top and bottom has widened. Yet the largest collective of teams within the NFL as Week 11 approaches consists of eight franchises with but four wins, and four with only three wins, which portrays the league’s mean average franchise as roughly a 4-6 organization, "which advises that the NFL competing against another league of similar size today would be approaching Week 11 as a losing enterprise."

As for a take on potential dark horses, thus a broad shift in the league’s standings, such could occur for the now 4-5 New Orleans Saints and the 6-3 Indianapolis Colts, teams that have risen swiftly from their bad season starts and seem to be coalescing for balanced offense/defense surprises within their schedules of only three of seven remaining challenges capable of causing them grief.

Broncos vs. Panthers.  The Broncos 36-14 win over the Panthers on Sunday reflected a value that the Denver franchise has needed to know could exist by the current NFL season’s final set of games and possibly maintain, “Consistency of positive attributes displayed across the board,” in effect, the team being able to stay at a high level of play within the offense, the defense and among special teams, starting from kickoff until endgame, “game after game.” If this value continues, we could see the Broncos vying for that Super Bowl billet.

In other words, the Broncos win vs. the Panthers wasn’t a fourth quarter leap ahead, as were previous Broncos wins, the Broncos making a comeback after failing to score well in previous periods, as if quarterback Peyton Manning needed to be behind in order to thrust forward and prevail by two or three points after the two minute warning. Against the Panthers, the Broncos scored during each quarter, one of its touchdowns a kick return event, two others from intercepts.

The Denver win wasn’t a mostly Manning event, it was a full team activity, and though the Panthers are but a 2-7 franchise it wasn’t an easy victory. The Panthers QB Cam Newton threw for more than 240 yards, his offense achieved more first downs than the Broncos had, and the Panthers possessed the football longer than the Broncos were able to, and Newton completed passes to Wide Receiver Greg Olsen for two TD’s.

Still, Broncos QB Manning completed 27 of 38 passes, throwing for a total of 301 yards, most of his drives reaching TD and field goal range, enough for a WR Brandon Stokley TD and Matt Prater’s kick expertise.

Noteworthy is that the Broncos average gain in yards per pass play vs. the Panthers was 7.5, and gains per rush, 3.0 yards. Should this be a norm for the Broncos in the games left for them to play, they can reach the team’s 12-4 end-of- season goal and ease into post-season play. Next up for the Broncos—the San Diego Chargers, now 2GB Denver within the AC West, a win for Denver to maintain a commanding division lead.

NBA:   IT’s only been six to eight games gone for most of the NBA’s 30 teams, and here and there it’s starting to look almost like the last few of the past NBA season, with the 6-2 Oklahoma City Thunder leading the Western Conference’s Northwest Division, the 6-1 San Antonio Spurs now atop the WC’s Southwest Division, the 5-2 L.A. Clippers numero uno of the WC’s Pacific Division, and the 3-4 L.A. Lakers closing on them while awaiting a new coach, leaping up from the team’s bad start.

And within the Eastern Conference, the 4-0 New York Knicks are leading the Atlantic Division, the 6-2 Miami Heat the EC’s Southeast Division. Big differences from the last days of the 2011/12 season include the 4-3 Boston Celtics, fourth place within the EC’s Atlantic Division, and the 4-4 Dallas Mavericks, fourth within the WC’s SW Division.

Of course, as many as eight games played is nowhere near enough to determine which NBA teams will be out front by the 2013 All Star break and then afterward, though an 0-8 and 0-5 record is fair indication of teams that will be struggling to find their way past .500, as it seems now for the Detroit Pistons and the Washington Wizards respectively. But then, more than half of the NBA franchises are today below .500, and only one team has a perfect record---the N.Y. Knicks are a 1,000 team, not having lost a game yet. Comparisons show that the next best teams are far behind the Knicks when it comes to overarching win/loss averaging, the Thunder, the Spurs and the Heat, with their six wins apiece.

Denver Nuggets.  Right now, the Nuggets are among eight NBA franchises with four wins, and they are a .500 team having lost four. We could argue safely that compared with the Thunder, the Knicks and the Heat, and bunched in with the seven other teams near or at the .500 mark, the Nuggets reflect the total capabilities of the entire NBA. In other words, when it comes to numerical tallies, the Nuggets are a mean average middle-of-the-pack franchise, a team that can win four straight, which they just have, and then lose a few, barely squeezing into a post-season, gone after the first or second round. But there is something else about the Nuggets, and it’s that which causes them to stand apart, to be different than many other NBA franchises, “head coach George Karl’s insistence on a playbook that’s liberal,” on strategies and tactics that primarily allow for broad adjustments based on each challenging team’s capabilities and limitations and on situational factors, i.e., those critical floor factors that appear within the moment. Karl’s players train perhaps more than others to expect the unexpected, but also to minimize the appearance of the unexpected with rehearsed but flexible schemes, and this demands “hardwood trust,” players habituated to teamwork and avoiding temptations to always serve the basketball to a particular guard or forward who is perhaps the better shooter. Karl doesn’t care for complete implementation of the star player strategy, he sees flaws in the two or three players dominating a game minute-after-minute, which is why Thursday’s Nuggets vs. Heat game will be interesting to watch for more than the fast breaks, the pick-and-roll and bucketed balls. The contest will be between two distinct styles, the adherence to speed and teamwork that leaves space and time for improvisations (Nuggets) vs. a star game’s mostly pre-set, yes, hard-to-detect plays. As to which style is best, we may never know for sure, though the Heat has made theirs work more often than not. Yet Karl probably wouldn’t want a team any different than the team that won four straight this month---about a Nuggets team like the 0-3 starters that appeared earlier in the season, well, that’s another story.

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NBA:  Leaping Ahead; Denver Nuggets //  NFL: Week 11, “Observations;” Broncos & Panthers.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

 

NBA:    FROM seeing how things turn out for as many as six NBA franchises in the early days of the league’s 80+ game season, it’s easy to decide that for most of them the few pre-season games aren’t enough “pump and preparation” for a rocketing regular start, for an early and then sustained commanding lead among other franchises.

And by the mid-season All Star break, and then in April as likely post-season teams start to challenge one another, it’s easy to think that for those few teams that started off badly and couldn’t catch up the long season wasn't enough preparation for anything above the .500 mark, an obvious example of this being the now 1 win-2 losses Charlotte Bobcats (4^th place, Eastern Confernce’s Southeast Division). The Bobcats have been a bottom-of-the-pile franchise for several seasons. Last season, the Bobcats lost 39 of 66 games. Not much better now are the 2-3 Cleveland Cavaliers (4^th place, EC’s Central Division), finishing last during the 2011/12 season, 29 games behind.

So, too, have the now 0-3 Washington Wizards been a bottom holding team, they’re in last place of the EC’s Southeast Division, and were next to last as the 2011/12 season closed, 20 wins, 46 losses, 25 games behind.

And, the current EC Central Division’s last place team, the 0-5 Detroit Pistons, ended up second from the bottom last season, 25-41, more than 20 games behind.  

Yet other teams match high expectations early on, like the current 4-1 Miami Heat (1^st place, EC’s Southeast Division), the 4-1 San Antonio Spurs (1^st place, Western Conference’s Southwest Division) and the 3-0 New York Knicks (1^st place, EC’s Atlantic Division), also the 3-2 Oklahoma City Thunder (2d place, the WC’s Northwest Division).

Then there’s the suddenly unexpected, for example, the Minnesota Timberwolves now leading the Western Conference’s Northwest Division, having finished the 2011/12 season in last  place, 26-40, 21 games behind. Too, there’s the NBA WC/Pacific Division’s last place 1-4 Los Angeles Lakers, having the third worst start of the current NBA season above the Wizards and the Pistons. Last season, the Lakers finished atop its division, 41-24. More than likely, L.A.’s Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol haven’t figured how to fuse their talents in ways that it took three seasons for the Miami Heat’s LeBron James, Dywane Wade and Chris Bosh to blend into, and two seasons for the New York Knicks Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire to partner up consistently..

Other surprises? Last year’s Golden State Warriors now leading the WC/PD, after finishing last season, 23-42, 18 games behind; and, the Milwaukee Bucks being ahead of the now 3-2 Chicago Bulls and atop the EC’s Central Division, last year 31-35 vs. Chicago’s 50-16 finish.

Of course, anything can happen after only a week or so of any NBA season, though usually the expected outperforms the unexpected.

Nuggets, of a different brand.   Of the 15 teams that as of today have won two of four or five games played (that’s one half of the NBA’s 30 teams), the Nuggets have one of the more grueling November and December schedules, including 23 games on the road, and 13 versus teams now holding first or second place within their divisions. Add, a Lakers team likely to force its way up from its poor start. The dark side of this is the threat of loss to teams such as the Heat, the Timberwolves, the Warriors and the Lakers, thus the Nuggets staying below .500, the bright side that a tough schedule early in a season makes for lessons learned and improvements in place before the All Star break. Also, the Nuggets have headed deeper into the road game storm from recent wins, last night’s victory against the Houston Rockets, 93-87, and Tuesday night’s win vs. the Detroit Pistons, 109-97 (Momentum matters, especially when entering a November game vs. the Heat, two days later vs. the Spurs.)

Whatever happens, Denver won’t be a version of the Bobcats or of the Pistons as the new season progresses. Though there isn’t a superstar to be found on the Denver roster, noteworthy is that you can’t find below-the-margin players on this team, either. The Nuggets reflect the unselfish, they represent teamwork being the main “stand apart” theme for winning, comprising highly skilled players, though none of the amazing caliber regarding the one or two skills that make for MVP status. If an experiment were to be contracted for pitting a team of superstars, e.g., the Heat, against a non-star team reflecting teamwork above all else, the Nuggets would be an outstanding choice for the latter.

The above-cited being so, a few years ago I asked Nuggets head coach, George Karl, what he believed was the Nuggets worst liability, his fast response, “Defense. We’ve got to improve the defense.” A weak defense is what teams comprising two or more superstars can exploit best, it’s how such franchises win games without a lot of grind and sweat, and it’s what the Nuggets still have to improve if they are to again make the playoffs (they’ve gotten there nine seasons straight).

NFL:  Week 11   ---   OF the eight NFL franchises leading their divisions within the two NFL conferences, one has remained unbeatable, the National Conference’s 8-0 Atlanta Falcons (NC South), and two are at 7-1, the American Conference’s Houston Texans (AC South), and the Chicago Bears (NC North). Only two of the remaining leading franchises have fewer than six wins, the 5-3 Denver Broncos (AFC West), and the 5-3 New England Patriots (AFC East). The remaining leading teams of six wins to date are the Baltimore Ravens, the San Francisco 49ers, and the New York Giants. Of course, these teams are in the running for post-season billets and a chance to get to the Super Bowl, but if their rates of advance, that is, their win-loss ratios, stay roughly the same as now, it’s likely that the AC's Texans or Ravens will be playing the Falcons or the Bears for the Super Bowl trophy. And, the next six or seven games that these teams will be playing could indicate which of the four could be left behind and be replaced by other franchises as the competing teams for conference supremacy and Super Bowl attendance, for instance, six of the Falcons eight games left to play will be against teams below .500, and so chances that the Falcons will stay unbeatable are quite good.

Consider that more than half of the Texans remaining games are also vs. teams below .500. And, neither the Falcons nor the Texans will be playing more than one other division leading franchise---there’s a Texans/Bears match this Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Ravens and the Bears will be facing more than two division-leading teams between now and the end of the regular season, and they’ll also face other teams that are above .600 by December 30, when the season ends.

So, transitioning toward hard fact is the guesswork about the Falcons and the Texans being NFL 2012 conference champions and Super Bowl contenders.

Broncos & Panthers---for this page’s take, scroll down to the column posted Tuesday, November 6.

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NFL:  Week 10 Line-ups; Broncos vs. Panthers

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:     IT’s the other side of dreams, where some NFL franchises hadn’t thought they’d be two months and two weeks ago, some ahead in the 32 team standings, others behind, a few exactly where they thought they’d be when approaching Week 10 of the league’s 16 week season.

What? Are the Atlanta Falcons really in first place of the NFL’s National Football Conference South “not having lost a game?” Are they really 8-0? They were to be a leading NFL club but not as close to perfection as they’ve been, now approaching Week 10 and a game versus the 3-5 New Orleans Saints (3d, NFC South), which the Falcons are favored to win, though Saints quarterback Drew Brees has been leading a recovery from one of his team’s poorest season starts; last night, the Saints beat the 3-5 Philadelphia Eagles (2d, NFC East), 28-13.

Should the Falcons lose to the Saints on Sunday, and should Week 10 wins go to the 7-1 Houston Texans (1^st , American Football Conference South) and the 7-1 Chicago Bears (1^st, NFC North), the Falcons will be tied with the latter two as the NFL’s leading contenders for a shot at the Super Bowl.

Next in line among teams that have won more than half of their assigned games since Week One are the 6-2 San Francisco 49ers (1^st, AFC West), the 6-2 Baltimore Ravens (1^st, AFC North), the 6-3 New York Giants (1^st, NFC East), and the 6-3 Green Bay Packers (2d, NFC North), all capable of competing for 2012 post-season play as the season heads toward and into Weeks 15 and 16, providing that they maintain current standings and their win/loss percentages.

Two division-leading franchises are now in position for post-season attainment, having won but five games---the 5-3 Denver Broncos (1^st, AFC West), and the 5-3 New England Patriots (1^st, AFC East), each a game up from their division’s second place teams, respectively the 4-4 San Diego Chargers and the 4-4 Miami Dolphins.

The surprise fallbacks to date are the 3-6 Washington Redskins (4^th, NFC East) and the 1-7 (Ugh!) Kansas City Chiefs (4^th, AFC West), franchises expected to have had better records by Week 10, the former from an offense led by star draft pick/NFL rookie QB, Robert Griffin, III, the latter from hopes attached to a defense package (overestimated) and to an offense predicted to have at least put the Chiefs at 3-5 by now.

Still holding bottom positions along with the Chiefs are the 1-7 Jacksonville Jaguars (4^th, AFC South), the 2-6 Panthers (4^th, NFC South) and the 2-7 Cleveland Browns (4^th, AFC North).  .  .  Ten other franchises are still under .500 with but three or four wins as Week 10 waits to mix it up for them. That’s 13 teams, thus more than one third of the NFL failing to master a season.

Broncos vs. Panthers.  There has to be some truth to the six degrees of separation comment, suggesting that we are all closely connected in some way. True for the NFL, anyhow. On Sunday, the former head coach of the Carolina Panthers, John Fox, now Denver Broncos head coach, will attempt to squash the Panthers with a steadily advancing offense led by QB Peyton Manning, and a defense squad much improved since Week Seven of the NFL season, which will mean a fourth consecutive Broncos victory. On Sunday past, the Panthers crushed the Washington Redskins, 21-13, a franchise led by Mike Shanahan, former head coach of the Broncos. Note that several of the winning Panthers were former Redskins teammates. Three years away from Denver and with the Redskins, the former Broncos field boss hasn’t seen a playoff game, the Redskins record under Shanahan is 14-27; yet he’d have been a much better Denver choice for Broncos head coach for another year instead of that what’s-his-name disaster that invaded Denver from New England. But then, current Chicago Bears QB, Jay Cutler, could still be the Broncos QB and the Broncos wouldn’t have Peyton Manning. Like the football that it’s all about, nothing in the NFL stays in mid-air, and often enough the right things fit into place, which seems to be where the Broncos are as Week 10 approaches. It’s doubtful that against the Panthers the Denver team will experience the same fate as the Redskins, but there’s no reason to think that a Denver victory will be easy to obtain from the get-go. The 2-6 Panthers are desperate, and they have the momentum of a team that broke a five game losing streak. And, former Heisman trophy winner, Panthers QB Cam Newton, he hasn’t been to stages of play causing him to be mocked. During Week Four, the Panthers lost to the 8-0 Falcons by only two points (30-28), and during Week Eight QB Newton led a team that lost to the now 7-1 Chicago Bears by only one point (23-22). Vs. Denver on Sunday, Newton passing less and handing off to running backs could be a theme, enabling just enough first downs to show that the Panthers can put up a respectable fight. To stop a Manning-led offense from scoring, the best shot at this will be the Panthers seeking “the sack,” Panthers defensive end Charles Johnson hoping to surpass the two sacks that he achieved vs. Chicago’s QB Cutler this season. This page’s take: the Denver defense will keep the Panthers from enough trips to an end zone for points needed to prevail against those accrued by QB Manning-led drives mostly of incremental gains and then bullet-like pass completions from the 20 or 30 facing goal, lots of Manning-WR Eric Decker and WR Demaryius Thomas connects preceded by Manning-RB Willis McGahee rushes forward; score, Broncos ahead by 10.    

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NFL:  Week 9; Broncos vs. Bengals // NBA: Off & running from “musical chairs;” Denver Nuggets.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:     OF the eight NFL divisions within the league’s greater partitions (the American Conference and the National Conference), only four today are led by franchises that are up by two or more games---the Houston Texans (AFC South), the San Francisco 49ers (NFC West), the New York Giants (NFC East), and the Atlanta Falcons (NFC South). Also, only one of the NFL's eight division-leading teams has been unbeatable since the start of the 2012 season, the 7-0 Atlanta Falcons, while two of the league's eight division-leading franchises are at 6-2---the 49ers, and the Giants. And, two of these eight teams are at 6-1---the Texans, and the Chicago Bears (NFC North).

During Week Nine, then, the division-leading teams most vulnerable to being kicked back to second place are the 4-3 Denver Broncos (AFC West), the 5-3 New England Patriots (AFC East), the 5-2 Baltimore Ravens, and the 6-1 Bears.

And surely out of the race for making a list of .500 or higher 2012 franchises (short of miracle turnarounds---they do happen) are the Kansas City Chiefs, the Cleveland Browns, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers.

Can the 4-3 Denver Broncos beat the 3-4/.429 Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, staying ahead of the 3-4/.429 San Diego Chargers, which defeated the Chiefs last night, 31-13? The quick and cool answer is, “Yes.” The interesting sub-set to that answer is, “How?”  One thing for sure, Broncos head coach, John Fox, and quarterback, Peyton Manning, will want to make certain that on Sunday as little as possible about Broncos tactics can be discerned by the Chargers, by the Baltimore Ravens and the Oakland Raiders, teams that have the best chance of enlarging the Broncos loss column between now and the post-season. Other teams challenging the Broncos though Week 16 will be low-end and quite beatable, among them, the Cleveland Browns, the Panthers, the Browns and the Chiefs.

According to the year’s stats, the Bengals aren’t going to be thrashed and humiliated by the Broncos. Bengals QB, Andy Dalton, has a decent record, 156 completed passes to date from among 243 attempted, which is a completion average around 64 percent compared with Denver QB Peyton Manning’s 68 percent. Dalton has thrown for 13 touchdowns, Manning for 17 TD’s.

But a real difference favoring Manning is that Dalton has been sacked 10 times, Manning four. The Denver pass rush will certainly be playing an important role come Sunday, and so will the Denver secondary, with another top cornerback Champ Bailey performance being the main shield against Cincinnati driving far enough for end zone exploitation.

Too, the Broncos rush record includes 100+ more yards gained throughout the season than the Bengals have been able to accrue, suggesting Bengals vulnerability to penetrations by running backs the likes of Denver’s Willis McGahee.

This page’s take: Denver up by 14 if it’s defense is as effective as it was last week against the New Orleans Saints; otherwise, Denver by three, in spite of QB Manning-led drives achieving multiple TD’s.

NBA:   IT looked as if the Miami Heat could dominate easily, own the NBA for several seasons when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh became the team’s “big three.” That did not happen right away, though the Heat avoided meltdowns during the 2010/11 NBA season.

Then the Heat reached the 2011/12 post-season---the Miami franchise rose to the top, becoming the league’s 2011/12 championship team.

And, Heat dominance seemed apparent during most of a Heat/Boston Celtics match on Monday, with former Celtics shooter, Ray Allen, joining tres amigos for the kill.

So, according to the Heat experiment the bringing together of two and three stars and an obedient supporting cast under one roof isn’t a sham---it can work, though it isn’t an easy strategy to pull off.

Apparent for several seasons, and which will likely remain so, is that the Heat “struggles.” When they win, it’s rarely as minute-after-minute dominators, with fans giggling over opposing teams unable to defend or shoot. A fourth quarter Celtics comeback may have put Monday’s game in tie-limbo and soon a Boston win in OT, were it not for Chris Bosh getting to the foul line and an amazing Allen shot from beyond the key.

A point to be made, then, is that during the NBA’s 2012/13 season the strengths of other NBA teams will keep the Heat from achieving the easy win and existing in a kind of stratosphere of basketball greatness. Certain teams will identify the Heat’s vulnerabilities and overtake them “on occasion,” a particular Heat vulnerability also being a strength, in that the Heat’s original three (James, Wade and Bosh) are multi-talented, multiplied when the three coordinate exceptionally well, more so than regards other NBA players. Still, neither of the three is as expert in a particular category of play as are some players on other teams, for example, passing as well as Steve Nash, improvising the right play for others as often as can Jason Kidd, rebounding and blocking like Howard.

A Heat strategy is for James, Wade and Bosh to change roles on the floor as situations develop, and this takes near-perfect timing, “fast transitions.” Interrupt that timing and Hell can turn up the heat on the Heat, especially when an opposing team’s one or two particular skills repeats and repeats, for instance, Gasol collecting the ball and passing to Nash, then Nash to Bryant for a three-pointer. Or, just Kevin Garnett or Howard having one of their better nights retrieving the ball, or blocking every which way.

A way of characterizing the NBA, then, is to say that there are no perfect NBA franchises: some are just less perfect than others. On the West Coast, the new Lakers could be among the post-season match-ups overtaking the Heat via a combo of specific star qualities---Kobe Bryant (playmaking, clutch shooting from anywhere, he’s the “all tools” star), Steve Nash (still among the game’s best passers “ever”), Pau Gasol (playmaking, assists), Dwight Howard (blocking, rebounding---“wings spread across the floor”).

The Oklahoma Thunder will shine throughout the new season from its own three-man set: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. The New York Knicks will be showcasing Carmelo Anthony and Amer’e Stoudemire again, also Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler, and veteran, Jason Kidd, reinforced by deep shooter, J.R. Smith.

The Brooklyn Nets will deliver with Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson. The Chicago Bulls strength will evolve from Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer being “on game,” and, as seen on Monday, the Celtics strength still comprises Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rando.

Think, too, of what Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili can do for the San Antonio Spurs, Dirk Nowitzki for the Mavericks.

The above said, note that the emphasis here is on “star player reliance,” on “big names,” and that the past two years have been a “musical chairs” activity across the NBA, e.g., Anthony and Smith from the Denver Nuggets to the Knicks, Howard from the Magic to the Lakers, Kidd from the New Jersey Nets to the Mavericks and then to the Knicks, Allen to the Heat, Jeremy Lin from the Knicks to the Houston Rockets, Andrew Bynum from the Lakers to the Philadelphia 76ers, Chris Paul from the New Orleans Hornets to the L.A. Clippers, Lamar Odom from the Lakers to the Clippers, Andre Iguodala from the 76ers to the Nuggets.

But the NBA consists of 30 teams and most are without “big names.” Several of these teams like it that way, e.g., the Denver Nuggets, led by seasoned coach, George Karl, who believes more in establishing teamwork among players who are highly capable of responding to changing situations, exploiting floor opportunities as they arise, rather than having two, maybe three “stars” that the rest of the team lives only to support. The “stars only strategy” requires plays that the five on the floor must stick to, or things can go haywire, while the teamwork concept opens up for a freewheeling game, for improvisation, as well as for some playbook rigidity.

Whether or not for the purpose of finding the right combination of players for a mostly teamwork style of play, few teams in the NBA have given away star athletes as often as the Nuggets have during recent seasons. In addition to parting ways with Anthony and Smith, gone from the Nuggets have been Aaron Afflalo to the Orlando Magic, Steve Blake to the Lakers, Chauncey Billups to the Knicks and then the Clippers.

Seeing today’s Nuggets as being symbolic of teams depending on solid performances from players operating mostly via teamwork as the ideal condition for winning basketball games (as opposed to functioning primarily from what two or three star players can do), such isn’t far-fetched. Earlier in the decade, when the Nuggets defeated other teams, the point differentials were mainly from Allen Iverson and/or Anthony being the team’s “sunshine boys,” each scoring 25 points or more per game. Of late, the Nuggets winning point spreads have been from as many as five players accumulating double-digit ppg each, but each of the five scoring less than 20 ppg, the aggregate often higher than when Allen and Anthony contributed. Don’t knock it---the Nuggets have made the playoffs each season since the departure of Anthony and other “stars.”

If there’s a star/specialist player that can contribute to undoing the Nuggets, it will be a super “center,” a Shaquille type who can halt the furiously fast and accurate-shooting Denver point guard/playmaker, Ty Lawson, and stop bigger all-around player and guard, Andre Iguodala, from scoring within the key and at the glass. And, Denver forward Danilo Gallinari is exceptionally fast at exploiting a rebound and scoring from almost any location; so, too, forward Kenneth Faried.

Outfoxing/outperforming those Shaqs will be key for the Nuggets becoming 2012/13 playoff contenders, allowing themselves the floor space for their hustle and steals, their rebounds and passes, their assists, and the unselfish shooting that is a hallmark of “the team that works as a team.”

Yet up against such top teams in the Western Conference as the Lakers, the Thunder, the Spurs and the Clippers, 2012/2013 won’t be easy-going for the Nuggets, nor will it be easy for the other mid-market “starless” franchises of the NBA’s divisions.  

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