NFL:  Week 13, “Projections;” Broncos & the Buccaneers.

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“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:    WE could think confidently that the NFL American Conference’s 10-1 Houston Texans will be 11-1 after this Sunday’s Texans/Tennessee Titans game, for the 4-7 Titans are second from the bottom, AC South.

We could also believe that the National Conference’s 11-1 Atlanta Falcons could have the same result, but on Sunday, December 9 (NFL Week 14), versus the NC South’s last place team, the now 3-8 Carolina Panthers. The Falcons have been relentless winners except on November 11 (Week 10), losing to the 5-7 New Orleans Saints, 31-27. Last night, the Falcons defeated the Saints, 23-13---the Saints are next to last, NC South.

But on November 18 (Week 11), the Texans almost lost to the currently 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars (last place, AC South), and during November the 3-8 Panthers withdrew from shame by fighting well enough against the now 8-3 Denver Broncos (1^st place, AC West) and vs. the 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NC South), in spite of losses to these teams.

Earlier in the NFL season, the 3-8 Panthers (second worst team in the league),  defeated the 5-6 Washington Redskins (NC East), 21-13, and last week they beat the 3-8 Philadelphia Eagles (NC East), 30-22.

Also, the AC West’s last place franchise, the 1-10 (ugh!) Kansas City Chiefs, almost defeated the 8-3 Broncos during Week 12. Moreover, the 11-1 Falcons win against the 6-5 Buccaneers on November 25 (Week 12) was by only a single digit, 24-23. 

A point to be made, then, is that it’s not too late in the NFL’s 16 game season for some upsets (any betting based on this assumption, not advised!).

What is quite certain, however, is that the Texans and the Falcons will be post-season contenders for their conference championship titles, highly competitive re. Super Bowl contention.

And, it’s very likely that five other teams will maintain playoff candidacy, vying for a conference title and a go at the Super Bowl, among them, the 8-3 Broncos, the 8-3 New England Patriots (1st place, AC East), the 9-2 Baltimore Ravens (1st, AC North), the 8-2 San Francisco 49ers (1^st, NC West), and the 7-4 New York Giants (1^st, NC East).

There are two teams that have maintained strong playoff possibility and that are separated for division leadership by only  a single game, the 8-3 Chicago Bears (1st, NC North) and the 7-4 Green Bay Packers (2d, NC North).

Eight teams will be struggling to reach or stay barely above .500, among these, the 5-6 Miami Dolphins (AC East), the 6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (AC North) the 6-5 Cincinnati Bengals (AC North), the 6-5 Seattle Seahawks (NC West), the 5-6 Redskins, the 5-6 Dallas Cowboys (NC East), and the 6-5 Minnesota Vikings (NC North), the 6-5 Buccaneers, the 5-7 Saints.

Six franchises will surely stay below .400, the 1-10 K.C. Chiefs (AC West), the 3-8 Cleveland Browns (AC North), the 2-9 Jaguars, the 3-8 Eagles, the 4-7 Detroit Lions (NC North), the 3-8 Panthers.

Broncos, Buccaneers.

Denver running back, Knowshon Moreno, demonstrated last week that he’s a credible/formidable asset replacing injured RB, Willis McGahee, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t have it easy as they try to undo the pass protection that has been a significant assist for Denver quarterback, Peyton Manning, with Moreno offering Manning enough space and time to find his throw options, or the option of a handoff to Moreno for those 4.8 to 5.6 yard gains per rush.

Too, while in 2012 the Buccaneers quarterback has completed 199 of 349 passes for 2,761 yards and 21 touchdowns, Denver’s Manning has completed 277 of 409 passes for 3,260 yards gained, resulting in 26 TD’s. Within the passing attempt and completion realms, QB Manning will definitely dominate on Sunday. As to how many of Manning’s completions will translate into touchdowns and field goals, that’s always another story, the visions of success usually favoring Manning. Related here, and a plus for Denver, is that Denver’s linebackers, Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, have a combined total of 22 sacks. The total number of sacks delivered by five Buccaneers linemen is less, 18---the  pass rush scoring will likely be Denver’s from kick-off on.  

Denver’s pass protection is what could give its offense the required edge for maintaining a first quarter lead vs. the Buccaneers, Manning captaining two or more drives filled with small gains buying first downs and then that throw to receivers Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, or Brandon Stokley, for end zone occupation and then a TD or field goal. Of value here for the Broncos is that the Buccaneers defense secondary has been among the worst in today’s NFL.  

And, the Buccaneers offense will probably be at the effect of a Broncos secondary that has been more mobile, and more between the football and opposition receivers, than in many a season.  

A win for Denver on Sunday will be the team’s seventh straight.

This page’s pick:  Broncos, 21, Buccaneers, 10.

END/ml