NBA:  Leaders & Other Winners; Denver Nuggets & the L.A. Lakers  // NFL: Last Act, Playoff Projections.   

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  . 

.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NBA:   TODAY, five of the NBA’s six division-leading teams have won 20 or more games and list above .700. Of these five, the Western Conference’s Northwest Division Oklahoma City Thunder is atop by seven games, and the Eastern Conference Atlantic Division’s New York Knicks, by six, which seems, at first blush, to be two franchises far ahead of all others within the NBA, an appearance supported by the remaining four division-leading teams being ahead by less than three games per---San Antonio Spurs, 22 wins-8 losses (Western Conference, Southwest); Los Angeles Clippers, 22-6 (Western Conference, Pacific); Miami Heat, 20-6 (Eastern Conference, Southwest).

Last among the leading franchises are the Eastern Conference Central’s 16-12 Indiana Pacers, leading just by one game, at .571.

Yet, and as the above-listed numbers reflect, the Thunder, the Spurs and the Clippers are at rough parity as leaders of the 16 team Western Conference, while the Knicks are at the top of the 16 team Eastern Conference by only one game.

So---it’s actually a close race for five of the six division leading teams, with the 15-12 Milwaukee Bucks biting at the heels of the Pacers.

Still down under, below .500, that is, are 12 franchises. That’s four fewer teams than half of the NBA, positioning the NBA at barely .500, implying existence of a marginal basketball league. Seven of the 12 haven’t multiple wins to date, though each has played more than 25 games (nearly a third of the 82 game NBA season), worst among them, as if deep-sixed, being the 6-22 New Orleans Hornets (last place, Western Conference, Southwest), and the 3-23 Washington Wizards (last, Eastern Conference, Southeast).

As cited on this page in a previous column, we are still seeing the end of last season “extended” and “replicated,” in that each of today’s leading NBA teams finished 2011/12 holding first or second place within their respective divisions, and last season the Hornets and the Wizards ended at the bottom of their respective divisions.

Different from last year’s regular season finish, however, and in a big way, are the 14-15 L.A. Lakers (3d place, Western Conference Pacific), .483 and eight games behind the Clippers.

Denver Nuggets   ---   Two nights ago, the Nuggets trounced the Los Angeles Lakers, 126-114, with a full and lasting arsenal, super-shooting from all over the floor (lots of successful three-pointers), assists, rebounds into fast breaks, a defense as consistently flexible as the offense, and speed and hustle maintained without loss of efficiency or of force in the fourth period (new for the Nuggets). The victory was Denver’s ninth at home, and the fifth of a streak, keeping the 16-14 team above .500, second place, Western Conference Northwest, behind the Thunder.

Not that the L.A. Lakers have lost all of their power. Guard, and star, Kobe Bryant, scored 40 points, forward Pau Gasol, 19, guard Steve Nash, 15. The highest Nuggets scorer was forward, Corey Brewer, with 27, next highest, forward Kenneth Faried, 21, followed by forward Danilo Gallinari, 19. But, take away Bryant’s 40, and Brewer’s 27, the Nuggets still remain the winning team, emphasis “team” as in “cooperative play.” Theory: let the star shooter shoot, stop wasting energy and manpower guarding a Kobe, LeBron or Durant, instead focus on suppressing their teammates. Relatedly, few super shooters excel enough in defense to always stop lesser but still commendable shooters like the Nuggets Brewer, Gallinari and the amazing guard, Ty Lawson (14 assists and three steals vs. the Lakers on Wednesday).

The Nuggets bested the Lakers in key categories: field goal percentage, free throws, rebounds, assists. It often seemed that while the Lakers new coach has a good feel and professional understanding of what star legends Bryant, Gasol, Meta World Peace and Dwight Howard can do as individual athletes, he has yet to know what these players can do as different sets of combo’s, and maybe these players haven’t figured it out yet, either. That said, should the Lakers coach and his charges figure it out, get the combo’s going right, such could lead to playoff time for the boys from Hollywood, but with the possibility of that happening will be that of the improved Nuggets punishing and eliminating them in the first playoff round.

*     *     *

NFL  ---   IT’s the last week of regular season play for all NFL teams, and the Atlanta Falcons (1^st place, National Conference South) are leading the league with regard to number of wins, 13-2, followed by the 12-3 Denver Broncos (1^st place, American Conference West) and the 12-3 Houston Texans (1^st place, American Conference South), but this won’t matter much during the post-season, when 12 teams, six per conference, compete for a Super Bowl billet.

If there’s a final hurdle of importance for the above-cited franchises and the nine other teams that will participate in post-season games, it’s where they could be seeded and which will attain a Bye week when the season closes and 2013 steps in, a prize to be coveted being holder of Bye Week right off, and being second-seeded.

So, here’s the NFL season/final week standings with regard to post-season participation:

American Conference playoff teams, they are locked in, no rear guard actions can upset the tally---it’s the Texans, the Broncos, the 11-4 New England Patriots (1^st place, American Conference East), the 10-5 Baltimore Ravens (1^st place, American Conference North), the 10-5 Indianapolis Colts, (2d place, American Conference South--seeded fifth), and the 9-6 Cincinnati Bengals (2d place, American Conference North---seeded sixth).

Of course, on Sunday the top four American Conference franchises will be competing for the post-season’s top seed positions.

Regarding the National Conference, there are still possibilities for change: currently set for post-season action are the Falcons, the 11-4 Green Bay Packers (1^st place, National Conference North), the 10-4 San Francisco 49ers (1^st place, National Conference West), 9-6 Washington Redskins (1^st place, National Conference East), 10-5 Seattle Seahawks (2d place, National Conference West), and the 9-6 Minnesota Vikings (2d place, National Conference North), yet a 9-6 Chicago Bears (3d place, National Conference North) win over the Detroit Lions (last, National Conference North) on Sunday, and a Vikings win on Sunday vs. the Packers, such could deliver a Wild Card slot for the windy city team.

And, the National Conference East’s 8-7/2d place Dallas Cowboys could finish the season ahead of the Redskins if they beat the ‘skins on Sunday, a reward for that being a number four seed, though the ‘skins would possess a Wild Card slot anyway.

Also, the New York Giants (3d place, National Conference East) could still obtain a Wild Card position by trouncing the 4-11 Philadelphia Eagles (last place, National Conference East) on Sunday.

Projections:   This page’s preference has the Broncos defeating the Patriots and going to the Super Bowl, 31-21, reversing the loss suffered by the Broncos to the Patriots earlier in the year. At the Super Bowl, the Broncos then beat the Redskins by 10 points (a touchdown and a field goal). Closer to reality:  the Broncos beat the Patriots during overtime by three, and they then face the Falcons at the Super Bowl. The outcome? Right now, anyone’s guess.

END/ml    

Holiday still on, expect column on Friday, December 27 // Adv., book SPORTS & THE HEROIC, by Marvin Leibstone, available at barnes&noble.com, amazon.com, XLIBRIS.com, and can be ordered at bookstores;  mlR.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  . 

.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

XMAS HOLIDAY, SO WE’RE TAKING A BREAK, SEE OUR NEXT POSTED COLUMN ON FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28---BEST WISHES TO ALL--- ml

NBA: Reaching Up, Falling Back; Denver Nuggets, Above the Margin  // NFL: Final Readouts & Predictions; Broncos vs. the Browns.     

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NBA:   ---    ONLY one NBA team can speak of having a commanding lead over competing franchises within its division, and that’s the 20-4 Oklahoma City Thunder of the NBA Western Conference’s Northwest Division, ahead of second place team, the 14-12 Denver Nuggets.

The Thunder is also leading the WC in wins, two ahead of the conference’s Southwest Division’s San Antonio Spurs, now 19-8.

Closest to the Thunder in the NBA Eastern Conference are the 18-6 New York Knicks, leading the EC’s Atlantic Division, five games ahead of the Brooklyn Nets. All other NBA division leading franchises are but one or two games ahead of a runner-up team.

Were the NBA season to end on this day without subsequent playoffs, the Thunder would be the league’s championship team.

Meanwhile, nearly half of the NBA has been struggling to break upward from having more losses than wins. In other words, 13 of the league’s 30 teams are below .500, a line suggesting separation of the competent from “the less than.” Two of these below the line franchises have as many or more losses than the Thunder has had wins, the 7-20 Detroit Pistons, and the 5-21 Cleveland Cavaliers. Four other franchises are close to that embarrassing low, each at the bottom of their respective divisions, the WC Southwest Division’s 5-18 New Orleans Hornets, the WC Pacific Division’s 7-17 Sacramento Kings, the EC Atlantic Division’s 7-19 Toronto Raptors, and the EC Southeast Division’s 3-19 Washington Wizards.

But it’s the eight NBA teams currently .600 and above that now paint the NBA as being a credible league were it to be compared with others of its kind (the Thunder holds at .833 today, while five of the eight are .704 and higher).

            Were the regular NBA season to end today, the Thunder would be atop the WC’s Northwest Division in much the same way as when the 2011/12 season ended in April, with the Nuggets also in the number two spot, the Utah Jazz third, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers with win/loss differentials also similar to their April end-of-season counts. Implied, then, is a vein of consistency within the WC’s Northwest Division, which seems to thread through all of the NBA, in that most teams seem to be positioned where they were when April, 2012 came about and the post-season began, e.g., most of the teams that finished last or next to last as 2011/12 closed are in that same ranked spot now---the Hornets, Kings, Raptors, Wizards and the Cavaliers, while hovering only slightly above them are the now 7-16 Charlotte Bobcats, which finished last in the league, 2011/12.

            Yet there are today’s surprising let-downs: the 11-14, thus under .500 L.A. Lakers (3d place, WC Pacific) and the 12-12 Boston Celtics (3d, EC Atlantic). Both led their divisions when the 2011/12 season ended.

            The unexpected turnabout, and a happy one for a town long without a sports team to identify with, has been the currently 13-11 Brooklyn Nets (2d, EC Atlantic), chasing the Knicks. When 2011/12 ended, the Nets, then of New Jersey, were last in their division and third from the bottom within their conference.

            Denver Nuggets. 

Quickly back up from the number four spot to second place within the WC Northwest Division, the 14-12 Denver Nuggets could be cited as an emblematic franchise, a team that represents the majority of those that reach and seem to stay above .500 but under .600 throughout most of the NBA season. This said, there are many values that separate the Nuggets from the rest of the league, a major characteristic being the difference between its win/loss record and its team and individual player statistics, the latter highlighting boldly that the team’s win/loss status should be a lot higher, that a Nuggets win like that against the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, 112-106, ought to be happening a lot more often. For example, eight of Denver’s 14 wins comprise two 4-game winning streaks, plus a 3-game winning streak, and within the team’s 26 NBA season games played to date, only twice has a Nuggets loss been followed by another loss.

Moreover, only two of Denver’s losses this season posted with less than 90 points, while only two of the team’s wins has had Denver finishing under 100 points, four of them with more than 110 points, the highest being a win versus the Sacramento Kings, 122-97. Of all Nuggets victories this year, in 13 of them the team kept its opposing teams below 100 points, in five of those games below 90 points.

Among Nuggets losses, only two have signaled reason for embarrassment, a 126-100 loss to the Spurs in early November, and a 122-103 loss to the Lakers, November 30. All Nuggets defeats since then have been by six points, or less. And, of the six games played against teams now in first or second place within their divisions, the Nuggets have defeated four. Ironically, the second highest number of points achieved by the Nuggets during a game this season was during a loss, 116 vs. the Miami Heat’s 119.

Also, a comparison of averages shows that the Nuggets are ahead of most NBA teams regarding major performance categories. The Nuggets field goal attainment percentage factor leads the opposition average, .468 over .439. As for free throws, the Nuggets lead, .431 over .428; total number of rebounds thus far, 1,123 above 1,033; number of blocks during the team’s first 25 games, 165 above 160; points per game, 101.6 over 100.5. In addition, five Nuggets starters and a reserve can boast of having double-digit ppg averages, forward Danilo Gallinari highest with a 15.6 ppg average.

What’s the major flaw, the Nuggets holdback? Looking at the team’s losses, mishaps noted most by analysts are fourth period slowdowns in offense efficiency, namely wasted shots, and sudden sloppiness in late game defense, along with not enough successful three-pointers providing a lead large enough for the team to guarantee an offset to its fourth period troubles.

Before meeting the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 16, 2013, the Nuggets have 13 games within which attempts can be made to correct the team’s deficiencies---should that happen, Thunder beware!

*          *          *

NFL   ---    The three teams carrying double-digit wins within each of the NFL’s two conferences are definitely post-season billeted, the American Conference’s 12-2 Houston Texans (1st place, AC South), the 11-3 Denver Nuggets (1st, AC West) and the 10-4 New England Patriots (1^st, AC East). Paired are the National Conference’s 12-2 Atlanta Falcons (1st, NC South), the 10-4 Green Bay Packers (1st, NC North), and the 10-3 San Francisco 49ers (1st, NC West). How these franchises perform this Sunday and next will determine just where each will be seeded in the post-season and which teams will be challenging them across the post-season rounds.

From even a cursory look at their schedules, it seems that neither of the double-digit division leading teams will encounter serious trouble before the regular season closes. The Texans will face the 8-6 Minnesota Vikings (2d, NC North), the Nuggets the 5-9 Cleveland Browns (last, AC North), the Patriots the 2-12 Jacksonville Jaguars (last, AC South), the Falcons the 4-10 Detroit Lions (last, NC North), the 49ers the 9-5 Seattle Seahawks (2d, NC West), and Green Bay the 5-9 Tennessee Titans (3d, AC South). The season’s compiled data advises that only the Vikings and the Seahawks could undo any of these double-digit division leading teams.

Also on Sunday, and next Sunday, as well, division leading franchises with less that 10 wins will still have a shot at gaining post-season slots---the 9-5 AC North’s Baltimore Ravens, and the NC East’s 8-6 Washington Redskins. On Sunday, Baltimore faces the also 8-6 New York Giants (3d, NC East), which could take them down a peg or so, and the Redskins will face the 4-10 Philadelphia Eagles (last, NC East).

As to likely achievement of post-season wild card positions, there are still chances for the 8-6 Cincinnati Bengals (2d, AC North) to shine on Sunday. Add, the Indianapolis Colts (2d, AC South), the Giants and the Seahawks, if they can win two in a row and the teams just ahead of them lose two straight. The Bengals will play the 7-7 Pittsburgh Steelers (3d, AC North) on Sunday, and the Giants will challenge the Ravens (which the Giants could win), and the Seahawks will face the 49ers (probably the Seahawks will lose this game).

What could be the kill of the day on Sunday is the likely takedown of the Jaguars by the Patriots, this page’s take a Patriots win by 20 or more.

Broncos/Browns.    This hasn’t been a season during which some of the worst hasn’t bested “the best.” The Jaguars nearly took the Texans apart at mid-season, prior to a fourth period Texans comeback, and the Panthers embarrassed the Falcons, 30-20, in November. Upsets like this can happen to the Broncos only if the Denver team goes into Sunday’s game overly confident and cavalier, or too concerned about avoiding injuries, submitting to lackluster performances all-around. There’s no other way that the Browns could prevail against the Broncos. It’s possible that the Broncos will use the Browns weaknesses as what could seem like pliable means for a laboratory, experimenting with plays that Denver’s head coach, John Fox, his offense and defense coordinators and quarterback Peyton Manning might want to employ during the post-season, i.e., for the Broncos on Sunday, it could be playoff rehearsal time.

END/mlR

NFL: Final Weeks---Assessments; Broncos Over the Ravens, 34-17

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  .  SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week.
Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL   ---    SOMETIMES it’s from one wrong move, other times from a series of mistakes. In either case, and from a contest lasting only a few hours, an NFL franchise can slip onto a down escalator from the possibility of post-season life, landing at gone, baby, Gone! And that is what happened to the 8-6 Chicago Bears on Sunday, a team tied not long ago with the now 10-4 Green Bay Packers for National Conference North leadership and playoff candidacy. It may have happened to the 8-6 New York Giants on Sunday, which led the NC East now dominated by the Washington Redskins, a team that appeared a few weeks ago to be headed below .500, although the Redskins are ahead only by a slim margin of points, tied at 8-6 with the Giants and the Dallas Cowboys.

Last night, the 6-8 N.Y. Jets (AC East) exited the 2012 NFL playoff race, having lost to the 5-9 Tennessee Titans (AC South), 14-10, partly from lackluster performances by quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (sacked four X) and Tim Tebow, who had an off-night, appearing as if a marginal athlete taken from the stands as a half-time entertainment gimmick (Jacksonville, make the call!).

So, too, are the 9-5 Indianapolis Colts (American Conference South) unable to gain a division leading finish, though still in the playoff chase.

            Of course, upturns in the ratings occur for a team every Sunday, Monday or Thursday during the NFL season, e.g., the Packers became a double-digit winning team (10-4) on Sunday, one of only six. The 11-3 Denver Broncos (1^st place, AC West) and the 12-2 Atlanta Falcons (1^st pl., NC South) are now the only leading franchises ahead of their next division best by six games, all other division leading teams up by four or less.

And for leading franchises, a single game can reinforce what has already been earned. No AC division leading team was troubled by Sunday’s outcomes. Locked in for playoff slots are the Denver Broncos, having defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 34-17, on Sunday, though the 9-5 Ravens still lead the AC North. Add, the 10-4 New England Patriots (AC East), and the 12-2 Houston Texans (AC South).

The likelihood of the above-cited division leading/playoff-headed teams experiencing losses during final weeks of the NFL regular season remains doubtful, as each will be facing lesser clubs, some currently below .500. Respectively during these weeks the Broncos will challenge the 5-9 Cleveland Browns (AC North) and then the 2-12 Kansas City Chiefs (AC West), the Patriots will face the 2-12 Jacksonville Jaguars (AC South) and then the 6-8 Miami Dolphins (AC East), and the Texans will go against the 8-6 Minnesota Vikings and then the Colts.

The Eastern Conference leading franchises certain to be in the 2012/13 NFL playoffs are the 10-3 San Francisco 49ers (NC West), the Packers and the Atlanta Falcons.

Sixteen franchises are now below .500, which is half of the league, the worst among them being the .143 Kansas City Chiefs (AC West), the .143 Jacksonville Jaguars (AC South), the .286 Philadelphia Eagles (NC East) and the .286 Detroit Lions (NC North). 

 Broncos and the Ravens.    From the second quarter on during Sunday’s Broncos/Ravens face-off, the Broncos showed the Ravens what economy of force and precision of movement in football looks like, the Ravens playing as if they hadn’t any idea what all that is. Well, it has several names: quarterback Peyton Manning, wide receiver Eric Decker, running back Knowshon Moreno, cornerback Chris Harris, the latter performing a pick + 98 yard run for a TD just before a possible Ravens touchdown.

Words like “destruction,” “breaking apart,” “pummeling,” “shellacking” and so on reek of frenzy and heat, of chaos---the Broncos win over the Ravens was smooth, cool, the Manning-led drives to the end-zone usually lacking wasted moments or lost space. And, the Denver defense maintained consistency of impenetrability until the fourth period, when a Ravens attempt to close on its deficit began to kick in.

The Broncos led the Ravens in number of achieved first downs, 21-12, possessing the ball for 38 minutes vs. the Ravens 21 minutes. That Ravens QB, Joe Flacco, completed 20 of 40 attempted passes, and QB Manning 17 of 28 attempted passes while the Manning-led offense accrued three TD’s in the first three periods and the Ravens none, was evidence of the difference between the two teams relative to making every action count toward points. The same can be said for Broncos WR Decker catching eight of 11 throws for a total of 133 yards, and RB Moreno taking 22 handoffs for a total of 118 rushing yards. Both Decker and Moreno scored a TD each.

The Broncos, now number two within the AC behind the Texans, will probably be a number two seeded team as the post-season moves ahead, along with a first round Bye, which could go one of two ways, allowing rest and rehearsal time for the team’s initial competition, or it could weaken some of the momentum that has enabled the team to win nine games in a row, week after week.   

Given that the Broncos will be facing two far below .500 teams between now and when the regular season ends, the Denver franchise will likely finish the year at 13-3, increasing on momentum that head coach John Fox and QB Manning will then strengthen with practice and other means of playoff preparation.

END/ml

NFL:  Week15 & Playoffs---Projections  // NBA: Early-On Best.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  .  SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week.
Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL  ---  WHEN highlighting 2012’s NFL teams that are already playoff-bound and possible Super Bowl competitors, like the 10-3 Denver Broncos (1st place, American Conference West), the 10-3 New England Patriots (1st pl., AC East), the 11-2 Houston Texans (1st pl., AC South) and the 11-2 Atlanta Falcons (1st pl., National Conference South), “seen clearly is the end of a beginning.”

 In other words, for the above-cited football franchises a 16-game season is over and gone---history! For them, NFL Weeks 15 and 16/17 would consist of only exhibition games were it not that the contests that they will participate in could impact where and when either will be seeded during the post-season, that is, Weeks 15 and 16/17 will uncover which teams will be playing in the post-season early on, and which will have home advantage soonest.

Let’s review---

            Week 15 (this Sunday, December 16), the Broncos will be facing the 9-4 Baltimore Ravens (1st pl., AC North), and the Patriots will challenge the 9-3 San Francisco 49ers (1st^t pl., NC West). The Texans will face the 9-4 Indianapolis Colts (2d pl., AC South), and the Falcons will meet the 8-5 New York Giants (1st pl., NC East).

For the Denver franchise, beating the Ravens will represent the team’s ninth straight win. More importantly, such could reward Denver with an early Bye Week during the post-season, allowing Denver to be seeded with time to rehearse for its initial playoff game. All won’t be easy---the Broncos eight game winning streak hasn’t been against first tier teams like the Ravens. The Denver defense will be facing a formidable quarterback in the Ravens QB, Joe Flacco, which will put serious pressure on Broncos backs Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil for execution of pass disruptions, and equal pressure on the Broncos secondary, in that QB Flacco likes to pass deep.

Still, this page believes that the Broncos Manning/WR and RB hook-ups (Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Kowshon Moreno) will outmaneuver the Ravens defense as long as Manning’s pass protection prevails against the Ravens fast and powerful pass rush (Manning has been sacked more than 15 times during the 2012 NFL season). What’s a fair take on the final score? Broncos ahead by seven, possibly by 10.

            The Patriots can beat the 49ers---maybe! Both teams contain formidable defense squads, and both are quick to exploit noted vulnerabilities of opposing teams, sometimes focusing entirely on a single opposition weakness, such as an opposition’s hesitant pass protection or opposition cornerbacks being slow to get between wideouts and the football. Then again, as pointed out to this page by an informed and wise fan, the Patriots head coach, Bill Belichick, could have his team concentrate on weakening the enemy where that enemy is most powerful, most skillful, e.g., the 49ers QB being adept at the rush, therefore there could be New England linemen all over 49ers QB, Colin Kaepernick. And, if Patriots QB, Tom Brady, is as good as he was last week vs. the Texans, we’ll see the Patriots finishing ahead by around 14, possibly 17 points. 

Yes, the Texans were loopy last week, losing to the Patriots, 42-14. Assuming that the loss was a fluke, the Texans defense will stay ahead on Sunday mostly from attempts to close against the Colts prior to the Colts QB, Andrew Luck, ever exploiting third downs past Colts territory, forcing punts and allowing the Texans enough ball possession to prevail. A likely finish will be Texans by 10, maybe 17.

The Falcons could lose to the Giants. Hey, they lost to the 4-9/below .400 Carolina Panthers last week, 30-20: mistakes happen, even when a team is leading its conference and the entire NFL. But---it’s more likely that the Falcons will defeat the Giants, though not by much. The win for the Falcons will have to come from its offense outsmarting one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Helping a Giants over Falcons finish will be tight pass protection for Giants QB, Eli Manning, allowing him to identify pass and rush options swiftly and freely, his deep  WR’s and close-in RB’s free, as well. Both Eli Manning and 49ers QB, Matt Ryan, purchase first downs effectively, while Manning bests Ryan when it comes to third downs, 10 and goal. Nevertheless, this page’s take on a final score remains Falcons ahead by seven.

Other franchises could fit into a beginning of the end category, in that they may not achieve post-season status but they are still close, such as the 9-4 Green Bay Packers and the 8-5 Chicago Bears, a game apart within the NFL’s NC North, ready to face each other on Sunday. The Packers are favored to win, but not by a huge difference in points. The Bears have lost four of their last five games, and Bears QB Jay Cutler’s usual above-the-margin efficiency could be absent due to a neck injury, which lessens the possibility of deep yardage per possession from any QB Cutler/WR Brandon Marshal teaming. Both franchises have rough parity when it comes to defense posturing. The possible finish is Packers ahead by three.

Like the Bears, the 7-6 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 8-5 Seattle Seahawks, the 7-6 Washington Redskins and the 7-6 Dallas Cowboys can still see post-season play on the horizon, the Steelers being two games behind the Ravens, the Seahawks a game back of the 49ers, the Redskins and the Cowboys now tied at one game behind the Giants. If the Ravens lose to the Broncos on Sunday, and the Steelers can win vs. the Cowboys (doubtful), then Pittsburgh will still be close to a division lead, with Week 16 making the difference for either they or Baltimore.

If the Redskins can lord it over the 5-8 Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and the Giants lose, they will still be tied with the Cowboys. If the Seahawks can beat the 5-8 Buffalo Bills this Sunday, the Seattle franchise will be in the running for a playoff slot, especially if the 49ers lose to the Giants.

So, for Week 15 there’s lots of uncertainty along with sufficient certainty regarding how the 2012 NFL post-season will be at its start. NFL Weeks 16/17 will surely reveal more details about the playoffs, the which, the when and the where. Thirty-two teams will have played for a total of more than 200 games, completing one story, enabling another.

NBA ---  Presently, the teams leading their divisions within the NBA by several games have a similar characteristic, a style of teamwork negating necessity for one or two star players to have to break through and win games solo or as a pair. Yet these teams also have one or two star players who can push forward surprisingly in the clutch, plus floor leadership that other teams cannot match, e.g., that which former Maverick and point guard, Jason Kidd, has been able to bring to the New York Knicks, signaling when forward Carmelo Anthony should accelerate and net basketballs at the glass, when J.R. Smith should turn on his three-pointer skills, when Kidd himself should sink a three-pointer and defeat the Brooklyn Nets by breaking a tie and forcing a win with less than 30 seconds left in a fourth period.

We can easily see that there’s a proper teamwork/star player mix within the Oklahoma City Thunder, with Kevin Durant shifting forward for repeated successful field goals after a high number of assists + defense rebounds passed to teammates for their field goal attempts. And, going from five-on-the-floor equality to dominance by two is certainly evident within the Miami Heat, with LeBron James not always the dominator and then suddenly it’s but one other Heat player being Robin to LeBron’s Batman.

Another characteristic among the year’s current leading teams seems to be the broad flexibility provided by head coaches who are convinced that basketball is a player’s game and there should be minimum supervision. Even so, these same coaches seem to have an edge over others at recreating match-ups during crucial moments of a game, replacing a player with another the way baseball managers change a line-up to better defend against left-handed relievers or closers, as if to say, “Guys, you’re on your own, until .  .  . ”

The Knicks, the Thunder and the Heat are ahead within their divisions today, and each has a third characteristic, “Consistency over being mercurial.” Winning streaks, though not long, have been more common among the three teams, than with most other division leading franchises.

But today only the Thunder can be said to have a commanding lead compared with the Knicks and the Heat. The Oklahomans are up by six games, the Knicks by four, the Heat by one.

If there’s a middle of the pack NBA team today that almost carries characteristics similar to those of the Thunder, Knicks and Heat, it’s the Denver Nuggets, now in fourth place within the Western Conference’s Northwest Division, at 11-12, seven games behind the Thunder but only one behind third place team, the Minnesota Timberwolves.

As pointed out by Denver Post sportswriter, Benjamin Hochman, the Nuggets have the teamwork, plus near-equivalence regarding star player momentum, and the right head coach in George Karl, but they haven’t mastered the three-pointer for the current season. Rather, breakthrough point guard, Ty Lawson, hasn’t been a consistent shooter outside the key.

Obvious is that the Nuggets include an offense that can move into position at the right time in the right way, doing the right thing, except far too often the rocketed ball fails to plunge through the net; the shots are off to the side, or they hit the rim. When it comes to three-point completions, the Nuggets exist within the bottom half of the NBA.

Or, the Nuggets have focused more on layups than on sinking FG’s. Teamwork, coaching brilliance, they matter greatly if an NBA team is to rise above others and maintain, but for today’s NBA game a team also needs multiple three-point completions to keep bringing in the W.

END/ml

NFL:  Weeks 14 & 15, Assessment & Projections // NBA: Current Status

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.

SPORTS NOTEBOOK will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday

of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:     IT’s that time when the NFL season transforms, when known is that from a grid containing 32 franchises only a few will move into playoff slots and have a chance to reach the Super Bowl. Weeks 14 and 15 are surely pivotal, this year lending certainty of a playoff appearance to three division-leading teams, the American Conference West’s 10-3 Denver Broncos, the AC East’s 10-3 New England Patriots, and the National Conference South’s 11-2 Atlanta Falcons.

Because the 11-2 Houston Texans lost to the Patriots last night, 42-14, they are but two games ahead of AC South’s Indianapolis Colts. If the Texans lose their next two games and the Colts win their final two, these teams could tie at first place, or, from accumulated points, the Colts could be the AC South’s leading team as the season closes, which this page believes is doubtful (the Texans will probably stay AC South’s division leader if only by one win).

The AC North’s leading franchise, the 9-4 Baltimore Ravens, is also two wins ahead of a runner up team, the 7-6 Pittsburgh Steelers. On Sunday, the Ravens will face the Broncos. Defeating the Broncos will enhance Baltimore’s playoff candidacy, especially if the Steelers lose on Sunday to the NC East’s 7-6 Dallas Cowboys.         

Within the NC, the 11-2 Falcons are the only leading franchise with a hefty jump ahead of runner-up franchise, the 6-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The three other NC division leading teams are respectively only one win ahead of number two teams---the 9-3 San Francisco 49ers above the 8-5 Seattle Seahawks, the 8-5 New York Giants one above the 7-6 Washington Redskins, the 9-4 Green Bay Packers over the 8-5 Chicago Bears. And so, there is the possibility of upsets, e.g., Week 14's unexpected Falcons loss to the now 4-9 Carolina Panthers.

Fourteen NFL franchises are below .500 as of today (more losses than wins). That’s nearly half the league. Eight of these teams exist within the AC, six within the NC. Turning this over, that’s eight winning franchises belonging to the AC, and 10 within the NC, which underscores rough parity among the conferences, and which paints the NFL as fair and just. Look deeper, however, and equality lessens, with three of the AC West’s four teams not only below .500, one being beneath .400 and two below .300, the 3-10/.231 Oakland Raiders, and the 2-11/.154 Kansas City Chiefs (tied with the 2-11/154 Jacksonville Jaguars as worst in the league).

Within the AC North, only one team is below .500, the 5-8/.385 Cleveland Browns. As for the NC West, NC East and NC North, each has but one team below .500, respectively the 4-9/.308 Arizona Cardinals, the 4-9/.308 Philadelphia Eagles and the 4-9/.308 Detroit Lions.

So, likely seeded within the AC playoffs will be the Texans, the Patriots, the Broncos, the Ravens and the Colts (wild card), and for the NC playoffs surely the Falcons, then the 49ers or the Seahawks, the Giants or the Redskins, also the Packers or the Bears. This page’s picks for the NC end-of-season outcome, “playoffs involving the Falcons, the 49ers, the Giants, the Packers, with the Seahawks or Bears as the wild card.”

NBA:  After more than a month into the 2012/2013 NBA season, you could start believing that "predictability" reigns in sports, for several teams thought in October to be leading the NBA by today are doing just that. As an example, the 17-4 Oklahoma City Thunder is leading the Western Conference’s Northwest Division, the 18-4 San Antonio Spurs the WC’s Southwest Division and the 14-6 Los Angeles Clippers the WC’s Pacific Division.

Within the NBA’s Eastern Conference, the 15-3 New York Knicks are leading the Atlantic Division, the 14-5 Miami Heat the EC’s Southeast Division and the 11-8 Chicago Bulls the EC’s Central Division.

But---"unpredictability" rushes forward as a characteristic of sports when you notice that only a few of today’s number one NBA teams have commanding leads, e.g., the 14-6 Clippers are barely ahead of the 14-7 Golden State Warriors. Too, the Heat is but two games up on the Atlanta Hawks, and the Bulls are only one game ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks.

Too, the WC Northwest’s Denver Nuggets, which finished last season 38-28 and went to the playoffs, is now but 10-11, therefore below .500 and fourth within its division; and, last season’s top WC-Pacific Division team, the L.A. Lakers, they are third in that division today, 9-12 and below .500.

Also, last year’s last place EC East’s New Jersey Nets (now, the Brooklyn Nets), they are in second place behind the Knicks today. Moreover, last season’s last place NBA franchise, the Charlotte Bobcats, they just won a seventh game, which is all that they managed to win all during 2012/13. . .  All that this page is saying now, is that in NBA basketball, “unpredictability triumphs.”

END/mlR       

NFL:  Week 14---Projections; Broncos & Raiders.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.

SPORTS NOTEBOOK will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday

of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:     AS Week 14 of the NFL’s 16 game season approaches, three of the league’s eight division leading franchises own double-digit wins and enough in the win column for a division crown and a playoff berth---the American Conference South’s 11-1 Houston Texans, the AC West’s 10-3 Denver Broncos, and the National Conference’s 11-1 Atlanta Falcons.

The two teams closest to the three double-digit winning franchises have nine wins apiece and could claim end-of-season dominance and playoff contention, as well---these are the AC East’s leading team, the New England Patriots, ahead of the 5-7 New York Jets by four games, and the AC North’s leading franchise, the Baltimore Ravens, up by two over the 7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers, though there are enough games left for the Steelers to force the Ravens back, providing that the Ravens stop winning (doubtful that this will happen).

The NC West’s leading franchise, the San Francisco 49ers, have eight wins. The NC East’s N.Y. Giants also lead with eight, and the NC North’s 8-4 Green Bay Packers are atop with eight, too. But each of these three could slip back to second place, respectively to the 7-5 Seattle Seahawks and to the 6-6 Washington Redskins, while the Packers could fall behind the also 8-4 Chicago Bears.

Still, 14 of the 32 NFL franchises are, by the league’s standards, “losers,” that is, each of the 14 has accumulated more losses than wins since the season started and are therefore below .500, best among them, the .417/5-7 Jets (2d place, AC East), and the .417/5-6 St. Louis Rams (3d place, NC West); worst are the .167/2-10 Kansas City Chiefs (last place, AC West) and the .167/2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars (last place, AC South).

Struggling to surpass their current .500/6-6 status are the Washington Redskins, the NC East’s Dallas Cowboys, the NC North’s Minnesota Vikings and the NC South’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Broncos vs. Raiders.  A second 2012 Denver Broncos win over the Oakland Raiders, 26-13, occurred last night on Raiders turf. In September, the Raiders lost to the Broncos, 37-6, at Denver’s Sports Authority Field. But last night’s win was a different sort than the homestand victory, the Broncos having appeared more stable and steady as they put up points and showed what could be the fundamental difference between an offense led by Denver quarterback, Peyton Manning, and those commanded by other QB’s, that sense as you watch that QB Manning and his receivers keep thinking several moves ahead, like master chess players, as they drive toward end zone occupation and then surety for a touchdown or field goal, while other QB’s and their receivers seem to move forward thinking only one down at a time, hoping it will include an opportunity or two for significant yardage.

Yes, the better QB’s can make things up as they go along, taking advantage of situational factors, but only if they have to. It’s rare that QB Manning has to. When the Broncos have possession of the football, Manning and his wideouts, tight ends and running backs will definitely control the game more often than not, and that seems to be what the Raiders understood last night, using the pass rush to disrupt Manning’s offense as often as possible, which wasn't often enough. Manning completed 26 of 36 passes for a total of 310 yards and a TD-achieved pass to tight end Joel Dreessen + easaily accessed FG’s, and more than twice the number of first downs gained than Oakland could produce, 30 over 14.

Of course, Oakland’s weak secondary couldn’t always be in the way of receptions executed by Broncos receivers, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and TE Dreessen, nor could the Raiders defense stop completely the ground work offered by Denver running back, Knowshon Moreno, who rushed for 119 yards, gaining around 3.9 yards per rush, accruing a TD. And, the mere seven points gained by the Raiders wasn’t a limitation imposed by a limp Raiders offense, it was from stops by the Denver defense that has become more pro-active than reactive since its eight-game winning streak began vs. the San Diego Chargers, October 15. Even so, Raiders QB, Carson Palmer, passed well enough, completing 19 of 30 throws for 273 yards, with around 8.4 yards gained from each pass and 3.8 yards gained per rush, though the Raiders total rushing yards hadn’t exceeded 61, compared with the Broncos 141. As for total net yards gained by the Raiders, it was far from pathetic---327 (vs. the Broncos 428), in spite of QB Palmer being neutralized often by Denver linebacker, Von Miller, and the Denver secondary disallowing third and fourth down TD and FG attempts (the Raiders had to punt five times to avoid turnovers that the Broncos could have exploited easily for more points).

This Sunday, the Broncos will be watching the Ravens closely as the Baltimore team challenges the Redskins, and on Monday they’ll be observing the Texans vs. Patriots game. The Broncos will face the Ravens on December 16. By defeating the Ravens and then the Cleveland Browns, next the Chiefs (last game of the season), and if the Patriots and Texans lose enough prior to December 30, the Broncos could definitely obtain post-season readiness and perhaps home-court advantage. At any rate, at 10-3 and already holding second place within the AC behind the 11-1 Texans, the Broncos could be playing either of the three AC teams for the year’s AC title and a Super Bowl appearance, good reason to be studying them during NFL Week 14.

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NFL:  Week 13--- Status Report; Broncos & Raiders.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:    There’s a point of no return when an NFL franchise is “locked in,” owning numero uno of its division although three, possibly four more games have to be played before imminent playoffs can determine which will be a conference championship team and go to the Super Bowl. It’s a position along the narrative of a 16-game NFL season that four teams could boast about after Monday’ night’s football game ended NFL Week 13, the American Conference West’s 9-3 Denver Broncos, AC East’s 9-3 New England Patriots, AC South’s 11-1 Houston Texans, and the National Conference South’s 11-1 Atlanta Falcons. A big question now is will these four keep winning and provide some evidence about how they might fare during the post-season, when they could be facing  other division leading teams and second place franchises that could win their way to the playoffs, as well ? And, which of the top four will seem to be the likely Super Bowl contenders when Week 16 ends the season?

            Of course, schedules can help to provide some surety about winners and losers. For example, the Broncos can keep winning, even against the one division leading team to be confronted by them before season’s closeout game, the AC North’s 9-3 Baltimore Ravens (December 16), a team that the Broncos have lost repeatedly to, but then that was before today’s reformed Broncos defense, and prior to Peyton Manning becoming Denver’s quarterback. With the AC South’s Indianapolis Colts, QB Manning led five victories versus the Ravens, nearly each win from his accurate readings of the Ravens pass rush and its defense secondary.

            The N.E. Patriots could have a harder go, scheduled to play the Texans on December 10 and the NC West’s leading team, the 8-3 San Francisco 49ers, the following week. Other than battling the Patriots, the Texans won’t be facing teams capable of diminishing their prowess, but if there is an upset it’ll be more from the 8-4 Colts (December 16 and Dec. 30) than from the NC North’s 6-6 Minnesota Vikings (December 23). Were the Falcons to play relaxed between now and the end of December it wouldn’t damage capacity for a conference title and a Super Bowl slot; only the NC East’s New York Giants could declaw them (December 16), a team that may be losing power and skill, having lost to the Washington Redskins last night, which met the Giants from a 10 game losing streak.

            The remaining four division leading teams still have competition at their heels, three of which are but one game ahead, the Ravens, the 49ers, the Giants. The NC North’s 8-4 Green Bay Packers are above the 8-4 Chicago Bears in points only, and by only a few at that. A turnabout could come when the Packers and Bears confront each other two weeks from now.

 Denver Broncos.   On Sunday, the Broncos defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31-23, from assaults led by quarterback Peyton Manning that included two touchdowns earned from passes to receiver Demaryius Thomas and a TD from a short throw to lineman Mitch Unrein. Add, pass rushes from linebacker Von Miller, a defense secondary reinforced by aggressive positioning between enemy receivers and the football, plus an interception for a TD by Von Miller (a career first). Yet the marginal Buccaneers obtained 23 points vs. the Broncos much-improved defense. The Broncos strength/vulnerability ratio is still tilted slightly along the vulnerability side from a few weaknesses in defense, one of which seems to be a hesitant and slow first quarter start, possibly due to moments spent reading/learning nuances of the opposition’s offense. Another Broncos defense weakness seems to be this: a risk-averse offense will usually do the obvious, relying more on an angular ground game or the deep pass to a wideout, which demands a wider spread of the opposing defense, leaving holes in the middle that an opposing QB could occasionally spot and exploit (often to the surprise of his head coach). The Buccaneers points gained on Sunday seemed to come from such surprises. Still, the Broncos defense held the Buccaneers to 18 first downs, while the Broncos were able to achieve 25 first downs, though the average gain per play by Buccaneers was as good as that of the Broncos, 5.0 yards per play, and the team’s average gain in yards per pass play were above the usual, 5.9, vs. the Broncos 6.4. Then again, the Broncos defense held the Buccaneers to a total of 71 yards gained from rushing---the Broncos accrued 81 yards from rushing. Re. the offense, QB Manning completed 27 of 38 pass attempts, Buccaneers QB Josh Manning, 18 of 39.      

Vs. the Oakland Raiders---Some analysts will tell you that when the Denver Broncos defeated the Oakland Raiders, 37-6, on September 30, it was a turning point as if a monolith rose from the ground and told the Broncos and their fans that they were destined for another playoff berth, in fact, a back-to-back berth. That’s because repeated losses to the Raiders began or were part of a Broncos losing streak. No way could the Broncos want to see their current six game winning streak end. On Thursday, the Broncos will again face the now 3-9 Raiders, a team that is desperate to regain some respect by winning at least a third of its scheduled games.

END/ml    

See below for analysis of NFL Week 13 and of tomorrow's Broncos/Buccaneers game. And for a great read about how sports can benefit our daily lives and about American sports as they are today, there's new book, SPORTS & THE HEROIC, by Marvin Leibstone, available when ordered at Barnes & Noble or Amazon.Com, or from publisher XLIBRIS.Com---for sports fans of all ages and anyone who wants a career in sports---makes SUPER XMAS GIFT---SNB.

NFL:  Week 13, “Projections;” Broncos & the Buccaneers.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:    WE could think confidently that the NFL American Conference’s 10-1 Houston Texans will be 11-1 after this Sunday’s Texans/Tennessee Titans game, for the 4-7 Titans are second from the bottom, AC South.

We could also believe that the National Conference’s 11-1 Atlanta Falcons could have the same result, but on Sunday, December 9 (NFL Week 14), versus the NC South’s last place team, the now 3-8 Carolina Panthers. The Falcons have been relentless winners except on November 11 (Week 10), losing to the 5-7 New Orleans Saints, 31-27. Last night, the Falcons defeated the Saints, 23-13---the Saints are next to last, NC South.

But on November 18 (Week 11), the Texans almost lost to the currently 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars (last place, AC South), and during November the 3-8 Panthers withdrew from shame by fighting well enough against the now 8-3 Denver Broncos (1^st place, AC West) and vs. the 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NC South), in spite of losses to these teams.

Earlier in the NFL season, the 3-8 Panthers (second worst team in the league),  defeated the 5-6 Washington Redskins (NC East), 21-13, and last week they beat the 3-8 Philadelphia Eagles (NC East), 30-22.

Also, the AC West’s last place franchise, the 1-10 (ugh!) Kansas City Chiefs, almost defeated the 8-3 Broncos during Week 12. Moreover, the 11-1 Falcons win against the 6-5 Buccaneers on November 25 (Week 12) was by only a single digit, 24-23. 

A point to be made, then, is that it’s not too late in the NFL’s 16 game season for some upsets (any betting based on this assumption, not advised!).

What is quite certain, however, is that the Texans and the Falcons will be post-season contenders for their conference championship titles, highly competitive re. Super Bowl contention.

And, it’s very likely that five other teams will maintain playoff candidacy, vying for a conference title and a go at the Super Bowl, among them, the 8-3 Broncos, the 8-3 New England Patriots (1st place, AC East), the 9-2 Baltimore Ravens (1st, AC North), the 8-2 San Francisco 49ers (1^st, NC West), and the 7-4 New York Giants (1^st, NC East).

There are two teams that have maintained strong playoff possibility and that are separated for division leadership by only  a single game, the 8-3 Chicago Bears (1st, NC North) and the 7-4 Green Bay Packers (2d, NC North).

Eight teams will be struggling to reach or stay barely above .500, among these, the 5-6 Miami Dolphins (AC East), the 6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers (AC North) the 6-5 Cincinnati Bengals (AC North), the 6-5 Seattle Seahawks (NC West), the 5-6 Redskins, the 5-6 Dallas Cowboys (NC East), and the 6-5 Minnesota Vikings (NC North), the 6-5 Buccaneers, the 5-7 Saints.

Six franchises will surely stay below .400, the 1-10 K.C. Chiefs (AC West), the 3-8 Cleveland Browns (AC North), the 2-9 Jaguars, the 3-8 Eagles, the 4-7 Detroit Lions (NC North), the 3-8 Panthers.

Broncos, Buccaneers.

Denver running back, Knowshon Moreno, demonstrated last week that he’s a credible/formidable asset replacing injured RB, Willis McGahee, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t have it easy as they try to undo the pass protection that has been a significant assist for Denver quarterback, Peyton Manning, with Moreno offering Manning enough space and time to find his throw options, or the option of a handoff to Moreno for those 4.8 to 5.6 yard gains per rush.

Too, while in 2012 the Buccaneers quarterback has completed 199 of 349 passes for 2,761 yards and 21 touchdowns, Denver’s Manning has completed 277 of 409 passes for 3,260 yards gained, resulting in 26 TD’s. Within the passing attempt and completion realms, QB Manning will definitely dominate on Sunday. As to how many of Manning’s completions will translate into touchdowns and field goals, that’s always another story, the visions of success usually favoring Manning. Related here, and a plus for Denver, is that Denver’s linebackers, Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, have a combined total of 22 sacks. The total number of sacks delivered by five Buccaneers linemen is less, 18---the  pass rush scoring will likely be Denver’s from kick-off on.  

Denver’s pass protection is what could give its offense the required edge for maintaining a first quarter lead vs. the Buccaneers, Manning captaining two or more drives filled with small gains buying first downs and then that throw to receivers Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, or Brandon Stokley, for end zone occupation and then a TD or field goal. Of value here for the Broncos is that the Buccaneers defense secondary has been among the worst in today’s NFL.  

And, the Buccaneers offense will probably be at the effect of a Broncos secondary that has been more mobile, and more between the football and opposition receivers, than in many a season.  

A win for Denver on Sunday will be the team’s seventh straight.

This page’s pick:  Broncos, 21, Buccaneers, 10.

END/ml      

NFL:  WEEKS 12 & 13; BRONCOS DEFEAT CHIEFS  

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:   WE’RE at the cusp of a last segment of four among 16 games of the 2012 NFL season, and seven of the eight division leading teams are up by two or more wins, the eighth being the National Conference North’s 8-3 Chicago Bears, up but by one over the 7-4 Green bay Packers.

Leading the NFL are the NC South’s 10-1 Atlanta Falcons and the American Conference South’s 10-1 Houston Texans. The AC East’s 9-2 Baltimore Ravens are third in the league, and all other division leading franchises have eight wins.

The only two division leading teams with four wins ahead of second place franchises are the AC West’s Denver Broncos ahead of the 4-7 San Diego Chargers, and the Falcons ahead of the 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Meanwhile, 18 of the NFL’s 32 teams are still below .500, the worst being the AC West’s 1-10 Kansas City Chiefs, at .091, next worst, the AC South’s 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars. Only three of the 18 teams below .500 are close to reaching .500, the AC East’s 5-6 Miami Dolphins, the NC East’s 5-6 Washington Redskins, and the NC South’s 5-6 New Orleans Saints.

AC West leading team, the Broncos, lost games this season to AC East leading franchise, the 8-1 New England Patriots, and to the AC South’s Texans. Losing to either in the 2012 NFL playoffs, and to the AC North leading franchise, the Ravens, means no Super Bowl appearance for the Broncos. But the Broncos losses this season haven’t been catastrophic, respectively re. the Patriots and Texans by six and 10 points. Scratching the Broncos from a possible Super Bowl slot at this time is premature, in spite of the Texans amazing record. A December 16 regular season Broncos vs. Ravens game could advise whether the Broncos will have heft going after the AC crown.

Within the NC, Green Bay could leap ahead of Chicago, but from the year’s stats it appears that the Falcons will lead the NC and be at the Super Bowl, according to the current popular consensus, “facing the Texans.”

Broncos Defeating the Chiefs, 17-9.  Sunday’s Broncos vs. Chiefs game underscored a truth about the NFL, this: the worst teams in the league can prevent the best from humiliating them, possibly embarrassing the winner. Denver’s first half performance was as the Kansas City Chiefs have been throughout most of the season, and the Chiefs defense in that half was more like that of the Denver Broncos of Denver’s recent wins. The second half had the Broncos come alive somewhat, but against a Chiefs team that was anything but, more like underlings losing in practice to better, though still stumbling squads.

The Broncos won by eight points of the 10 that this page predicted last week, and, yes, a win is a win, and you can’t fault a Broncos defense that can keep an opposing team from scoring a touchdown (the Chiefs points were from three field goals).

Noteworthy was Denver’s 104 more yards gained over the Chiefs, from an averaged 5.8 yards gained per play, 7.0 per pass play. Denver's quarterback, Peyton Manning, completed 22 of 37 passes for 285 yards, while the Chiefs QB, Brady Quinn, completed 13 of 25 for 126 yards.

Next up for the Broncos are the NC South's Buccaneers, an above .500 team likely to exceed the capabilities shown against Denver by the Chiefs on Sunday.

Another Broncos/Chiefs match will occur on December 30, Denver’s last game of the regular season. Informed guesses have the Denver team finishing the season at 11-5. 

END/ml