NFL:  Week 13--- Status Report; Broncos & Raiders.

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NFL:    There’s a point of no return when an NFL franchise is “locked in,” owning numero uno of its division although three, possibly four more games have to be played before imminent playoffs can determine which will be a conference championship team and go to the Super Bowl. It’s a position along the narrative of a 16-game NFL season that four teams could boast about after Monday’ night’s football game ended NFL Week 13, the American Conference West’s 9-3 Denver Broncos, AC East’s 9-3 New England Patriots, AC South’s 11-1 Houston Texans, and the National Conference South’s 11-1 Atlanta Falcons. A big question now is will these four keep winning and provide some evidence about how they might fare during the post-season, when they could be facing  other division leading teams and second place franchises that could win their way to the playoffs, as well ? And, which of the top four will seem to be the likely Super Bowl contenders when Week 16 ends the season?

            Of course, schedules can help to provide some surety about winners and losers. For example, the Broncos can keep winning, even against the one division leading team to be confronted by them before season’s closeout game, the AC North’s 9-3 Baltimore Ravens (December 16), a team that the Broncos have lost repeatedly to, but then that was before today’s reformed Broncos defense, and prior to Peyton Manning becoming Denver’s quarterback. With the AC South’s Indianapolis Colts, QB Manning led five victories versus the Ravens, nearly each win from his accurate readings of the Ravens pass rush and its defense secondary.

            The N.E. Patriots could have a harder go, scheduled to play the Texans on December 10 and the NC West’s leading team, the 8-3 San Francisco 49ers, the following week. Other than battling the Patriots, the Texans won’t be facing teams capable of diminishing their prowess, but if there is an upset it’ll be more from the 8-4 Colts (December 16 and Dec. 30) than from the NC North’s 6-6 Minnesota Vikings (December 23). Were the Falcons to play relaxed between now and the end of December it wouldn’t damage capacity for a conference title and a Super Bowl slot; only the NC East’s New York Giants could declaw them (December 16), a team that may be losing power and skill, having lost to the Washington Redskins last night, which met the Giants from a 10 game losing streak.

            The remaining four division leading teams still have competition at their heels, three of which are but one game ahead, the Ravens, the 49ers, the Giants. The NC North’s 8-4 Green Bay Packers are above the 8-4 Chicago Bears in points only, and by only a few at that. A turnabout could come when the Packers and Bears confront each other two weeks from now.

 Denver Broncos.   On Sunday, the Broncos defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31-23, from assaults led by quarterback Peyton Manning that included two touchdowns earned from passes to receiver Demaryius Thomas and a TD from a short throw to lineman Mitch Unrein. Add, pass rushes from linebacker Von Miller, a defense secondary reinforced by aggressive positioning between enemy receivers and the football, plus an interception for a TD by Von Miller (a career first). Yet the marginal Buccaneers obtained 23 points vs. the Broncos much-improved defense. The Broncos strength/vulnerability ratio is still tilted slightly along the vulnerability side from a few weaknesses in defense, one of which seems to be a hesitant and slow first quarter start, possibly due to moments spent reading/learning nuances of the opposition’s offense. Another Broncos defense weakness seems to be this: a risk-averse offense will usually do the obvious, relying more on an angular ground game or the deep pass to a wideout, which demands a wider spread of the opposing defense, leaving holes in the middle that an opposing QB could occasionally spot and exploit (often to the surprise of his head coach). The Buccaneers points gained on Sunday seemed to come from such surprises. Still, the Broncos defense held the Buccaneers to 18 first downs, while the Broncos were able to achieve 25 first downs, though the average gain per play by Buccaneers was as good as that of the Broncos, 5.0 yards per play, and the team’s average gain in yards per pass play were above the usual, 5.9, vs. the Broncos 6.4. Then again, the Broncos defense held the Buccaneers to a total of 71 yards gained from rushing---the Broncos accrued 81 yards from rushing. Re. the offense, QB Manning completed 27 of 38 pass attempts, Buccaneers QB Josh Manning, 18 of 39.      

Vs. the Oakland Raiders---Some analysts will tell you that when the Denver Broncos defeated the Oakland Raiders, 37-6, on September 30, it was a turning point as if a monolith rose from the ground and told the Broncos and their fans that they were destined for another playoff berth, in fact, a back-to-back berth. That’s because repeated losses to the Raiders began or were part of a Broncos losing streak. No way could the Broncos want to see their current six game winning streak end. On Thursday, the Broncos will again face the now 3-9 Raiders, a team that is desperate to regain some respect by winning at least a third of its scheduled games.

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