NFL: Broncos vs. Raiders; Week Four’s possible yields // MLB: Colorado Rockies & “the Slide.”

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:   NO NFL team wants to begin Week Five of the NFL season as a below .500 franchise, and so the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders, both at 1-2, will enter their Week Four match-up with that clearly in mind, thus with some quiet desperation about avoiding problems encountered during earlier games. If we go by the numbers, then the Raiders 61 points accrued from its three games being less than the Broncos 77 suggests that Denver could beat Oakland by more than a touchdown, but an injured Denver running back, Willis McGahee, could reduce that value for the Broncos, as could the fact that in the two Broncos losses to date an unusually large number of incomplete QB Peyton Manning passes occurred, along with what could have been a greater number of rushes had possessions not been lost to interceptions---the Broncos have proven that they can achieve more than three yards per rush, and so those intercepted Manning passes could be blamed for the Broncos losses thus far.

And if we go by QB comparisons, we can see what could be a very close set-up, in that both Manning and Raiders QB, Carson Palmer, have achieved the same number of TD’s to date, “five,” and they are nearly equal when it comes to pass completion percentage, Manning at 60 percent, Palmer at 62 percent. This advises that “the pass rush” could make the difference for either team on Sunday, the Broncos linemen Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller an advantage as masters of the sack.

So, if Manning has the right protection in the pocket, then the pass-synchronicity, that is, the correct timing that he and his receivers could share, such will make a positive difference for the Broncos, and this has to include other than Broncos wide receiver, Eric Decker. For red zone occupation, Manning needs a greater number of options from his offense, including receivers tagged for the rushes that will have to be more than three yards per.

The conservative guesses have been that the Broncos will prevail over the Raiders but not by much, as long as the team avoids the one or two errors that turn a game over, like an interception or fumble. It’s likely that we will see a Denver offense struggling hard to overcome points given away by a Denver defense that isn’t many pegs above that of the Raiders when it comes to skills, speed and power, but a Broncos offense that can get the job done.

Round-up ---  An unusual number of NFL teams above .500 will be playing teams below .500, among them, the 3-0 Houston Texans challenging the 1-2 Tennessee Titans, the 3-0 Arizona Cardinals playing against the 1-2 Dolphins, the 3-0 Atlanta Falcons against the 1-2 Carolina Panthers. This Sunday, there will also be many equally numbered match-ups, like the 1-2 Raiders vs. the 1-2 Broncos, the 1-2 Washington Redskins vs. the 1-2 Tampa Buccaneers, the 2-1 San Francisco 49ers vs. the 2-1 New York Jets, the 2-1 Chicago Bears against the 2-1 Dallas Cowboys, the 2-1 N.Y. Giants vs. the 2-1 Philadelphia Eagles. It is from these games that the status quo will see Week Five begin with a new array of .500 and above franchises, with the teams now 3-0 possibly still leading the two conferences. Of course, Week Four will include desperate tries to escape “the zero club,” e.g., the 0-3 New Orleans Saints pushing to have that start-up win as they face the 1-2 Green Bay Packers.  .  .  On Thursday, Week Four’s up or down yields began with the Baltimore Ravens beating the Cleveland Browns, 23-16, lifting the Ravens to a 3-1 record, pushing the Browns rearward, 0-4.     

MLB:     THE Colorado Rockies September ballad went quickly from high notes to screeching lows, starting with two wins against the San Diego Padres, which followed a series won from the Los Angeles Dodgers that had capped a winning August 2012 record, the only winning month for the Rockies all season.

From September 3 on, the Rockies experienced a slide that included 17 losses.

By Wednesday night of this week, September 27, the Rockies September drops had brought the franchise’s total number for the year to (ugh!) 94.

With only seven matches left to play, the Denver-based team was prepped to be the second MLB club to lose 100 games during the 2012 season, a feat reached recently by the far below .400 Houston Astros.

And losing the fourth game of a series vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday, September 24, would have been high end humility for the Rockies, a feared division rival’s four-game sweep. During game one against the Arizona franchise, held earlier (Friday, September 21), the Diamondbacks exploded in early innings with numerous runs, while the Rockies imploded, final score, 15-5, Arizona. Games two and three vs. the Diamondbacks saw the Rockies again in fallback mode, losing 7-8 and 7-10.

Fortunately, game four would be different, the Rockies taking the Diamondbacks down, 4-2, an upswing in Rockies winnings to follow.

Next up for the Rockies were the Chicago Cubs, one of two MLB teams with a win/loss record beneath that of the Colorado team. The first two games of the Rockies/Cubs series were won by the Rockies, 10-5 and 6-0. Then, on Thursday, the Rockies played their last home game “and won,” the third in its series vs. Chicago, final score: 7-5. That’s four victories in a row---yet the six games left for the Rockies to play (three vs. the Dodgers, three against the Diamondbacks), they could still leave the team at 100 dumped.

There will be lots of queries as to why the Rockies have journeyed from being an above-the-margin ball club in early April to a team with the third worst 2012 win/loss record in the majors, perhaps the most confusing aspect of the mystery being that the Rockies are not by any standard a gathering of really bad ballplayers. Fact: several of the Rockies are within ranks of the season’s best, among them, catcher, Wiln Rosario, he has the second best 2012 rookie home run record in the majors today, 27, only one HR behind the year’s rookie phenom, Mike Trout of the L.A. Angels. Rosario also holds the second highest slugging percentage for a rookie catcher in all of baseball history, .540, behind Mike Piazza’s .561. Too, outfielder Dexter Fowler and shortstop Josh Rutledge have been super lead-off hitters for the Rockies, batting above .300. Moreover, closer Rafael Betancourt has had 31 saves, including last night’s vs. Cubs game.

In other words, the known few answers among the likely many regarding the Rockies spiraling, slipping and sliding into the pits lies somewhere other than across the full range of achievements of the team’s starting players.

On the dark side, a turn of injuries has had Rockies hitters Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler and others placed on disabled lists. Among pitchers, the season has seen effective pitchers Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin temporarily disabled. By mid-season, the Rockies players were a new team every few weeks, barely adjusted to working together.

Also, 2012 starting pitcher expectations based on previous performance stats rarely actualized for the Rockies, and all starting hurlers were restricted to a four-game rotation and a 70-75 pitch limit in hope they’d escalate to execution of more strikeouts, a method that has had partial success.  

On a brighter side, from April through September 27, the Rockies accrued a total of around 740 runs from all of its games, while the teams that the Rockies played in that period totaled around 850. The differential is less than 112 runs, below that of a team average reflecting the loss of each of a season’s 162 games by only one run per. An argument can be made that this is meaningless “moneyballing,” but if the total number of runs achieved in a season by an MLB team happened to be the very basis for deciding if a team isa winning club, i.e., above .500, the Rockies would be in the top fold, somewhere between .800 and .850.

And, though in last place of the NL West Division, the Rockies current team batting average is higher than it was in 2007, when the Rockies won the National League championship and went to the World Series, .304 vs. 2007’s .298.

Baseball’s prismatic, and so there are different ways to judge a ballclub. From many vantage points, the Rockies are far from being the limp organization that the standings indicate. It’s quite possible that what is there isn’t the larger problem, and that the slips and slides that the Rockies have experienced have been mostly from what is “not there,” from what has been absent. The Rockies are a team that can lose big---having lost to double-digit runs in many cases, and yet the Rockies have won in 2012 via double-digit figures in 10 games vs. several above .500 teams, e.g., in April they beat the San Francisco Giants 17-8, and in June they defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers, 13-3. But way too often, the 2012 Rockies have been a team losing a substantial lead, or going in the hole in early innings and recovering well but not well enough.

In addition to probably a lot that hasn’t been discovered through analysis yet, obviously missing from the Rockies are enough starting pitchers and relievers that can suppress opposing team hitters in order to deny successive runs, and surely needed is another middle- and back-of-the-order clean-up hitter for those RBI’s that lock in a ninth inning victory, let’s say, a Tulowitzki or Helton of past seasons, which Rosario and a few other Rockies players seem to be growing into .  .  .  maybe the better way to summarize here is to say that the Rockies need to maintain as would “diamonds in the rough,” and also add to its value-added means, not have many values taken away, the latter a risky solution adopted way too often after a team has a poor end-of-season win/loss record.

END/ml

NFL:   Texans Defeat the Broncos; Around the Horn, Week Three.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:     THE Houston Texans are now 3-0, the Denver Broncos, 1-2, after a Sunday duel between them at Denver’s Sports Authority Field, a 31-25 Texans win that may not have happened under Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning’s watch if the team’s defense had a better first half and a more effective third quarter, and had Manning had a first quarter during which the protection given him in the pocket + the security of openings for his wide receivers existed a few rungs higher on the proficiency ladder.  

The pass-synchronicity that was Manning’s and his receivers in later periods of the Broncos/Texans game, and in the final period of last week’s Broncos vs. Falcons match, it just wasn’t there in those first quarter drives, and the Broncos defense squad just couldn’t always find the spaces that it needed to be at for pass interference; nor could QB Manning avoid being sacked twice by Texans lineman, J.J. Watt (Denver’s defensive lineman Elvis Dumervil got his first sack of the year on Sunday, vs. the Texans QB).  

By endgame, the Broncos had gained a total of 375 yards, the Texans, 436. Manning threw for a total of 330 yards from 26 of 52 passes, while the Texans QB, Matt Schaub, hurled for 290 yards, completing 17 of 30 passes, a sufficient display of economy of force from both QB’s, except that Schaub’s drives resulted in more points.

            It doesn’t take long for an NFL team to pick out an opposing club’s star players and figure out ways to neutralize their effectiveness, to reduce their ability to participate in achievement of first downs and red zone occupation, which is classic football and that which the Texans accomplished vs. the Broncos, signaling that QB Manning needed better and more options for getting rid of the ball along with tactics less conservative than those offered up against the Texans defense, which Manning found finally with receiver Brandon Stokley and tight end Joel Dreesson nailing Denver’s two TD’s of the game (the Texans bought four TD’s).

Mostly, Denver’s wide receivers and running backs were victims of the Texans “denial operations” on Sunday. The best of the Denver defense seemed to be outwitted and outrun more than “outblocked,” yet the Texans offense kept finding pass openings due to its effective blocking against potential interference. The Texans managed time and again to keep Denver’s cornerbacks from being where the football and receivers were headed (Diminishing cornerback capacity is probably a 33.5 percent add-on value for potential offense yardage.).

Reflecting a significant difference in defense prowess is that the Texans had rushed successfully for more than 145 yards by the fourth quarter’s two minute warning. The Broncos finished the game with fewer than 60 rushed yards. The Texans were averaging more than four yards per rushing attempt, the Broncos less than three per rushing attempt.

Still, a fourth quarter comeback, similar to that of last week’s vs. Falcons effort, had the Broncos a TD away from beating the Texans. The outcome of the Broncos/Texans battle may have turned favorably for Denver if receiver Demaryius Thomas hadn’t had his timing shifted for a long fourth quarter TD pass attempt from QB Manning.

Too, though Denver running back Willis McGahee couldn’t be free for a greater number of rushing attempts than perhaps anticipated, he continued to average around 3.2 yards per attempt.

Also noteworthy is that Manning’s drives were enough to reach decisions for the Matt Prater field goal, giving Denver points that matched those that the Texans obtained via the TD.

So, as the NFL moves into week four of its 2012 season, any argument that the Broncos have caused themselves to be banished from the list of possible post-season contenders is bogus---1-2 isn’t the same as 7-9.  

Around the Horn After Week-3.

Fifteen of the 32 NFL teams are at 1-2 today, 12 are at 2-1, three are at 3-0, while two are at 0-3, combined the start of a dividing line between those franchises that will be vying for post-season billets and those that will soon be out of the race.

A current value for the 2-1 teams is that five of them are leading their divisions. And, if .500 and above remains the mark for a winning team, then 15 are already at or above the margin and capable of competing for division and conference championships.

The three teams that haven’t lost a game as NFL Week Four approaches are the Houston Texans, (the only AFC 3-0 team), and the NFC’s Arizona Cardinals (NFC West) and Atlanta Falcons (NFC South).

The 0-3 teams are the Cleveland Browns (AFC North) and the New Orleans Saints (NFC South).

Last night, the Seattle Seahawks purchased a 2-1 position by beating the Green Bay Packers narrowly, sending the Packers into the 1-2 realm. Last season’s Super Bowl winner, the New York Giants, are also at 2-1, and last season’s runner up, the New England Patriots, they are at 1-2.

If NFL Weeks One through Three are “trending,” then the 2012 NFL season won’t be the 2011 repeat that some analysts have predicted.

END/ml

NFL:   Broncos Up Against the Texans; Round-up,  Week Three

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:     THE 2-0 Houston Texans want their winning streak to kick in as a habit, and they want to demonstrate truth of that on Sunday versus the Denver Broncos, a franchise that wants to prove to itself and to the rest of the NFL and fans that it is indeed a formidable contender for post-season competition. Surely after Monday night’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons, the 1-1 Denver team wants to prove that losing isn’t going to be a team habit, not ever and not with quarterback Peyton Manning captaining the Denver offense, joined by top-rated wide receivers, Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, running back Willis McGahee, and supported by a defense that includes pass-rushers Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, and cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter.

            So, which team will be the prevailing points-maker via drives consisting of multiple plays yielding those short gains that add up to successive first downs? Which will win from long passes finding the other side’s red zone, followed by the rush and leap for a TD?

Which will dominate from short passes to a back running 40 or more yards for the TD?

And, which will win by the greater number of field goals?

Which by a two point conversion?

Which because QB pass-protection couldn’t stop faster and stronger linebackers from causing QB disorientation and the sack?

And, which will win from interceptions and fumbles allowing a defender to carry the ball for the TD and then the kicker going for that one point that could make the difference, for example, the 36-35 finish?

Fact: we can’t really know if the Texans or the Broncos will dominate on Sunday. The informed analysts hadn’t expected the Washington Redskins to fold before the St. Louis Rams last week, or that the Indianapolis Colts could lose its first game of the season the way it had. Or that QB Drew Brees wouldn’t be able to make a difference for the New Orleans Saints last week and the week before.

Still, for NFL watchers the informed guess about which team will win and which will lose is a temptation hard to resist. This page will resist that temptation and instead offer observations that could serve a rational though still uncertain pick, for instance, Denver won its first game of the season by a hefty margin, 31-19, versus an anything but weak Pittsburgh defense, and Denver lost game two of the year to the Falcons, 27-21, but by a TD that the offense probably would have obtained were there another minute or so of play. Too, the Manning-led recovery vs. Atlanta after a first quarter humiliation, it continued  until endgame, reflecting a QB-led offense that any other NFL franchise would find hard to suppress.

The Texans have been playing a conservative rushing and short pass game, in spite of QB Matt Schaub’s better than marginal qualities for the deep throw. There’s no reason to think that this style of play by the Texans will change, especially when Denver’s pass-rush ability could anyway force Schaub to attempt numerous ultra-swift handoffs to Texan running backs of the speed and power to force first downs in two or three carries, e.g., Arian Foster, now averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Therefore, if Denver’s defense fails to execute successful pass-rush tactics and block and tackle in order to undo handoffs and rushes speedily, which means being between the football and Texan receivers that are close in and at deep angles, well, other than a tight win by the Broncos will be impossible, assuming, of course, that the Texans defense is enough of a mobile barrier for keeping Manning-led TD’s to a minimum.

If we view plays executed by the Texans on both sides of the ball during games one and two of the season, seen will be one of the more balanced offense/defense relationships within the NFL, in that the defense seems capable of offsetting offense vulnerabilities and preventing the return of any points won from the opposition. Evidence of this lies with the Texans having won each of their two season games to date with double-digit TD’s, the opposing teams unable to score more than one TD.

There may not be enough vulnerabilities within the Texans defense for the Broncos pass-protection in the pocket, and for the team’s downfield open receiver-protection, to exploit play-after-play; and so Broncos receivers avoiding the Texans defense squad’s speed, power and contact via canny maneuvers will surely be a higher priority than usual for the Broncos offense on Sunday. But it’s a fair assumption that this won’t be a consistent happening, which tells us that QB Manning avoiding the Texans pass-rush, and his runners and pass-receivers escaping and evading the Texan defenders, such will have to result in points from numerous drives if the Broncos are to defeat the Texans even by three.

ROUND-UP, WEEK THREE---  IN addition to the Houston Texans, five other teams that are 2-0 as of today are the San Diego Chargers, the Arizona Cardinals, the Atlanta Falcons, the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers, neither scheduled to play teams in week three of the NFL season that they haven’t a fair chance of defeating and putting up a 3-0 record but could also lose to. On Sunday, San Diego will face the Falcons, a game that could low-score alternately into overtime. Arizona will play against Philadelphia, a match that could yield the same result. San Francisco will face the 1-1 Minnesota Vikings. Unique, then, about week three is that four of the six 2-0 teams will be playing each other, and two will be playing 1-1 franchises. That’s eight of 32 teams above or at .500 competing to rise onto the top fourth of the NFL as one fourth of the season comes to a close.

As for the losing teams, that is, the 0-2 franchises, there are four: the Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars and the New Orleans Saints. The Raiders will be playing the 1-1 Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, the Browns will challenge the 1-1 Buffalo Bills, the Jaguars will face the 1-1 Colts, and the Saints will play against the 1-1 Kansas City Chiefs. It is too early in the season to say that the 0-2 franchises will definitely be 0-3 on Monday, but evident is that the 0-2 teams will have to work exceptionally hard to overcome their bad start. Should half of the 2-0 teams lose in week three they will still be winning franchises from a 2-1 record, while the 0-2 teams winning on Sunday will still be losing franchises as they enter the last of the first quarter of season contests.

END/ml          

NFL:   Broncos lose to the Falcons; Around the horn, Week-2

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:   THE Denver Broncos lost initiative and control almost immediately in the first quarter of its Monday night NFL week-2 game against the Atlanta Falcons, QB Peyton Manning “outmanned” by three intercepts, a fumble and four turnovers, the Falcons ahead 20-0.

Not until mid-2d Q could the Broncos show evidence of a comeback, Manning leading a 13 play/80 yard drive for a TD.

But well before endgame, the Broncos offense and defense ruled, with TD runs by Willis McGahee and Demaryius Thomas, the Broncos positioned for the game-winning TD that couldn’t be, absented by the Falcons recovering the ball with less than four minutes to go, accruing first downs conservatively, mostly playing the clock, final score: 27-21, Falcons.

            That first quarter was lost by the Broncos to a Falcons defense that prevented QB Manning and his receivers from adjusting fast enough for pass/catch and handoff connects, due largely to Denver’s pass protection unable to be where it needed to be so that Manning could move the football forward on his own terms, in effect, the defense within the Broncos offense remained vulnerable to being neutralized by the Falcons defense.

Too, the Broncos defense could not return the favors in that first quarter, it was outgunned by a Falcons QB (Matt Ryan) and outrun by Ryan’s canny receivers. No doubt, it’s film of that first quarter that the Broncos will be reviewing during coming days, to ad nauseam.

            But the efficiency and recovery power of the Broncos cannot be ignored---Manning’s multiple first down drives starting with those of the second quarter, his passes long and short, showed that his strengths still outweigh his vulnerabilities, and that the latter has less to do with his skills and speed than with the support that a QB needs when in the pocket. . .  Not that Manning’s years in the game haven’t caused him to lose a step or two---he won’t be throwing for more than 500 yards in a game, like brother Eli recently.

            Many observers have been saying that a difference in the time factor, in, say, the Broncos having another three, maybe four minutes of play, would have offered up a 28-27 win for the Denver franchise. But there’s no way of proving this. Still, the game’s stats provide a good Broncos story, e.g, Broncos running back Willis McGahee running for 113 yards from 22 carries and for two Broncos TD’s.

Too, Denver put up 24 first downs, two more than accrued by the Falcons. Also, Denver led Atlanta in total net yards gained and in average yards gained per play. Only four Falcon receivers gained double-digit yards per man, while nine Broncos receivers achieved double digit-yards each.

            Of course, head coaches of the NFL teams preparing to play the Broncos in upcoming games will be looking at the causes that allowed the first quarter intercepts of Manning’s passes, a fumble and the four turnovers, plus the yardage gained against the Broncos by the Falcons Roddy White, who ran for 102 yards and a TD, and Gonzalez for 70 yards and a TD; however, most of the coaches and tactical coordinators will realize and admit publicly that such values are usually flukes rather than the standard happenings when competing against a team that begins dominating and recovering from a second quarter onward.

Next Sunday, when the one win/one loss Broncos will be playing the 2-0 Houston Texans, big money won’t be pushing Manning and company to the rear.

Around the horn, NFL Week 2 

Thus far in the NFL season, only two American Football Conference teams have won all their regulation games, the San Diego Chargers of the AFC West and the Texans, AFC South.

Within the National Football Conference are four teams having won all of their competitions to date, the Arizona Cardinals, NFC West, the San Francisco 49ers, NFC West, the Philadelphia Eagles, NFC East, and the Atlanta Falcons, NFC South.

Five AFC teams have lost all of their games, the Kansas City Chiefs, AFC West, the Oakland Raiders, AFC West, the Cleveland Browns, AFC North, the Tennessee Titans, AFC South, and the Jacksonville Jaguars, AFC South.

Within the NFC, there’s only one double-Zero team, the New Orleans Saints.

The Chargers and the Texans are tied for first place within the AFC, and the Cardinals, Eagles and Falcons are tied for first in the NFC.

Last season’s Super Bowl winner, the New York Giants, are in last place of its division, NFC East, while 2011/12 post-season contender the New England Patriots holds second place within the AFC East, and the Green Bay Packers, first place, NFC North.

END/ml                       

AT THE REQUEST OF READERS, THIS PAGE WILL RETURN TO POSTINGS ON TUESDAYS AND FRIDAYS, IN ORDER TO PROVIDE COVERAGE AND ANLALYSIS OF SELECTED MONDAY AND THURSDAY NFL GAMES----Ed., ml

NFL: Pre-game observations, 2d week of the season---Broncos vs. Falcons // MLB: Winners & Losers---Colorado Rockies, a good ball club in spite of the standings.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will post columns every Monday and Friday during the NFL season, otherwise Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:   FOR those NFL teams that won big during the 2011 season and lost during week one of the 2012 16-game string, losing during week two could mean some loss of initiative, but none of these top teams will be “out of the race” for post-season contention, as has been suggested by analysts. Past seasons reveal that with 14 games left to play, anything could happen for them---paths of recovery will still be open, the season still in its youth.

However, dividing a season into four quarters, well, losing three or four of the first four games of an NFL season, that’s to worry about.

From last week’s outcomes, the Indianapolis Colts are probably a team that will be fretting next month, but the past week performances of last year’s top winners have shown, even if they won last week, that week two could go up or down for either, and that with whatever happens the scores won’t be widely apart. If the New York Giants get to 38 points, its opposing team will probably be finishing with only a few points less than that .  .  . 

and, a good guess is that Monday night’s Atlanta Falcons/Denver Broncos match can be exceptionally close in low-score mode if Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan can continue his Peyton Manning-style game as effectively as Denver’s Peyton Manning can. Both have the advantage of having lightning-fast receivers who can intuit where to be and when for the pass-catch link that converts gained yards into first downs.

The no-huddle QB’s Manning and Ryan, and their receivers, can execute pass and rush drives better than most NFL QB-receiver units, and so on Monday night the defense squad that is better at infiltrating and defeating the other team’s pass protection and disturbing a QB’s rhythm and plans, meanwhile getting between the football and receivers, that’s where the Falcons/Broncos game will be won, in that the game will belong to the QB-led offense given the greater number of defense-built turnovers for driving the ball forward for points.

It’s a fair guess that there will be several exchanges of leads between the Falcons and Broncos, and that the clock may be that which decides the winning team, the victor likely to be only a few points ahead (think of an NBA game, the winner by two, maybe three points).            

            Yes, all predictions about NFL games are iffy---football’s an enterprise of uncertainties, more so than with other sports. That’s because football is a game with lots of players afield simultaneously, each having to do a job that affects the performance of others. The more participants that exist, the greater the likelihood of an imperfection occurring on one side of the ball becoming an advantage for the other end, e.g., the bad throw by team A’s QB, then an interception by a team B cornerback, team B’s cornerback suddenly off with the ball as if challenging Usain Bolt in a 100 meter heat, demonstrated last week when Denver CB Tracy Porter intercepted Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger’s throw and quickly completed an 80+ yard TD run.  

MLB:   AS of Monday last, a fourth MLB franchise reached 81 wins over its losses. Should the four teams having done that lose every game that they have left to play in the 162-game season, they’ll still be .500 or .500+ as the season comes to a close. Presently, they are “the winningest MLB clubs of 2012,” three of them in first place of their respective divisions: the Washington Nationals (NL East), Cincinnati Reds (NL Central), Texas Rangers (AL West), the Atlanta Braves second place behind the Nat’s.

Yet the four teams at the very bottom of both leagues (Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros), should they win every game that they have left to play in the season (as of Monday last, around 20 left per), they’ll probably still be under .500, the worst of this fallen quartet being the Houston Astros, which on Monday had only 44 wins against (Ugh!) 97 losses, average, .312, likely to be the only team finishing the year with more than 100 lost games.

            What’s to be learned from the above? This: during September, the last full month of an MLB season, those teams that have won half of a year’s required number of games can rise further in the standings, or they can coast---they’ll still finish “above the margin (those 81 games),” while those ball clubs failing to have won around two-thirds of the 81 (60 or  61) games, they’ll still be the bottomed-out four teams even after winning many of the 20 or so games that they have left to play.

So---once teams reach a certain height, they can keep rising, and if they do not and drop back some, well, it won’t matter greatly for they’ll remain a winning ball club (.500 or above, having won 81 or more games)---yet once teams fall below a particular “low,” they’ll surely remain, as the expression conveys, “Dead Meat.”

Meanwhile, and this is comforting for anyone preferring that the major leagues be as fair as possible and include a proper dividing line between "best" and "all the rest," the 22 ball clubs between the top four and the bottom four, they can reach or surpass .500 by winning around two-thirds of their games left to play (as of Monday last, 20 or 21 games), though not by much---still, the strong likelihood of this happening is enough to say "the major leagues are alive and well," for 26 of the MLB’s 30 teams will have reached, or gone higher, than the accepted margin of .500, where the winners separate from the losers, an outcome that has been possible year after year, give or take an additional team or two above or below .500.

Of course, staying ahead of other MLB teams requires lots of wins “early” in a season, which can lead us to ask, “What constitutes ‘winningest teams,’ what is it that helps these clubs rise early on?” At first shot, we might answer, “Those are the teams that have the best players.” But the year’s likely top hitters, the standout starting pitchers/relievers/closers, the best fielders, the first All Star picks, the likely MVP’s, usually only a smattering of these belong to a year’s top four teams.

And, how could the Colorado Rockies still be in last place of the National League West when it has produced results throughout the season often associated with the top MLB clubs, an immediate example being that the Rockies just won a series versus the San Francisco Giants, the number one NL West team?

More significant, across June and July of this year the Rockies won four of seven games vs. MLB first place team, the Nat’s. Were those seven games a World Series or a league championship, well, hey--- ????

Also, the Rockies have won games vs. the remaining top four MLB teams, the Reds, the Rangers and the Braves.

Too, the Rockies have delivered on “streaks,” having won five games straight across late May and early June, another five straight in August, and four straight and three straight in August, while only being swept during five of the more than 40 series played as of Monday last.

Moreover, the Colorado franchise has a low record of losses to double-digit runs accrued by an opposing team, and one of the lowest number of losses after having put double-digit figures on the board in a single game.

In addition, the Rockies have had a high number of upper double-digit wins, e.g., 18-4 vs. the N.Y. Mets in April, and 17-8 vs. the Giants, same month.

Commendable is the number of multiple hit games achieved by the Rockies individual hitters, LF Carlos Gonzalez leading 13 other players with 46; and, CF Dexter Fowler and catcher Wiln Rosario are holding on to leading hitting positions within the National League and re. all of 2012 baseball.

Add the number of runs that the Rockies have accrued during its 80+ losses and you’ll find a total number greater than the total number of runs gained by more than half of the teams currently holding .500+ averages.

It will probably take many weeks of analysis to determine just why the Rockies have been so far behind during the MLB season, the informed guesses of today being that April through mid-August the team suffered from a weak starter rotation, plus line-up injuries May through July, demanding team reconstruction, in effect, a line-up of new players, Gonzalez and Fowler often becoming the only past-season Rockies players afield.

As for what constitutes “winningest teams,” the informed guess is that they’re the teams that are most “consistent” when it comes to having a starting rotation reliable enough to sustain low ERA’s and high strikeout percentages, along with fielders and catchers preventing bat/ball connects from becoming hits, plus a line-up consisting of numerous on-base and extra-base RBI hitters, not so much reliance on a home run king, emphasis being on, “Overall team prowess almost at peak level throughout April and May,” hard to maintain but a lot easier than having to endure and enact a mid- or late-season comeback.

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NFL: QB Peyton Manning & the Broncos, Game One // MLB: Final Stretch.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

During the 2012 NFL season, SPORTS NOTEBOOK will post its columns Monday and Friday of every week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:   THE recent weekend in sports will remain one to remember over others---Serena Williams winning her fourth U.S. Open and 15^th grand slam, the U.K.’ s Andy Murray and Serbia’s Novak Djokovic advancing to the finals, Murray taking home the U.S. Open trophy on Monday after a five set victory. Add that the NFL’s season opening was filled with exciting outcomes, some unexpected “score-wise,” among them, the Green Bay Packers losing to the San Francisco 49ers, 30-22, and the Indianapolis Colts to the Chicago Bears, 41-21, the latter being Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck’s NFL baptism of fire, among the meanest to occur in many a season. A Sunday highlight was QB Tim Tebow scoring a first season TD for the New York Jets prior to Jets primary QB Mark Sanchez putting up three TD’s, resulting in a 48-28 finish against the Buffalo Bills.

Not surprising, QB Peyton Manning helped the Denver Broncos prevail against the Pittsburgh Steelers, 31-19, spiked as a guarantee in the game’s fourth quarter from Broncos new cornerback Tracy Porter’s intercept for a 40+ yard touchdown run.

            Just as in the Serena Williams versus Victoria Azarenka of Belarus match, until Porter’s TD the Broncos/Steelers game could have been a nail-biter going to either side, though the Broncos appeared the more skilled and the stronger throughout most of the game’s challenges, in spite of the Broncos first capturing a lead in the third quarter, and that by only a single point.

Likely at the insistence of Broncos head coach, John Fox, both the Broncos offense and the Broncos defense seemed to apply “economy of force,” closing on territory forward and fast enough to avoid “play disruption,” the Broncos not having to be a team forced into having to innovate at the effect of the other team’s tactics and strengths.

Veteran QB Manning showed that he isn’t clothed in so many parts competence/other parts “hype.” Manning is still the quintessential QB. Savvy, skillful and swift, he led two nearly flawless drives for TD’s against the Steelers, one of them of few plays for more than 80 yards, and he completed 19 of 26 passes, finding that split second for a throw when a receiver is at far angles deep or shallow, free for catch-and-run, no matter who’s covering whom.

Obvious, too, was the continuity of handoff-connects between Manning and Broncos running back, Willis McGahee, for well-timed hustling up the middle or minimally off-side, Manning relying on wide receivers DeMaryius Thomas and Eric Decker for that same connectivity re. deep right and left angle passes.

            Against the Steelers, the Broncos demonstrated control by exploiting “basic” rather than surprise tactics, the team’s speed and meticulous execution making the difference, example: the incredibly fast spot, rush and grab that resulted in fourth quarter sacks of Steelers QB, Ben Roethlisberger, by Broncos lineman, Von Miller.

Manning’s respectable game stats evolved primarily from throw and handoff choices that were “standard football,” not of great risk, aided by above-the-margin QB protection in the pocket + Manning and his receivers performing the expected QB-receiver dance expertly more often than not, putting up a low dropped-catch stat during each period of the game.

Manning threw for 253 yards, the Steelers QB throwing almost twice the number of passes for 245 yards, an important difference being yards into points from caught passes (Manning) vs. number of caught throws = yards wasted (Roethlisberger).

Famous for getting rid of the football quickly, Manning did not rush for significant yardage by himself. The chief surrogate scrambler for that remained McGahee, who rushed for 64 yards, second best of the day (both teams). Manning, McGahee, Thomas and Porter showed that classic football, in effect, Football 101, is still appropriate.

Next up for the Broncos---the Atlanta Falcons, Monday night, September 17, a team that’s been the NFC’s number two winning franchise four years straight.

 *    *   *

MLB ---  It is still possible for 12 of the 16 MLB teams that are at or above .500 today to win more than half of their scheduled 2012 games. The remaining four .500 or better MLB clubs have already done so, the Washington Nationals, the Cincinnati Reds, the Texas Rangers, the Atlanta Braves. The San Francisco Giants and the New York Yankees are close to joining the top four, 79 wins apiece. What this means is that just more than half of the MLB teams could finish the 2012 season above .500, signifying that the major leagues are a winning enterprise when it comes to what happens afield but only by slight degrees above the margin that separates the current 16 .500-and-above teams from the 14 clubs that are below .500.

Also, the above data is led by a team with the most wins as of Monday night, the Washington Nationals, of 86 victories and the only MLB team with an above .600 average and of the fewest losses, 54.

Too, only one other MLB team is between .580 and .600, the Rangers. Six other teams are between .550 and .580, which signals that breaking upward to high performance status from where half of the American and National League teams reside is the equivalent of climbing Everest or K2, proved further by the fact that 10 MLB teams carry averages beneath .480, seven of which are below .450 and two are beneath .400 (the Chicago Cubs, .386, the Houston Astros at the very bottom of both leagues, .314).

A team finishing the MLB season as a .500 or better organization will have won 81 of 162 games. With less than 20 games to go for most of the MLB clubs, only four teams have already won 81 or more games as of Monday, the Nat’s with 86 wins, the Reds with 84, the Rangers, 83, and the Braves, 81, more proof of how difficult being a winning baseball club actually is.

So---what’s most right about all of the above? This: while stats do have their place and can qualify and quantify progress or the lack of it, we really don’t have to care one way or another about them to enjoy baseball, for the game is among the best of human inventions, the fun and grace of it transcending all win or lose propositions. This is quite visible in the fan who doesn’t bother to employ a scorecard while watching a baseball game, who stands and cheers when a player on either of the two teams competing does something extraordinary, and you can bet that such will happen again and again, even when unexpectedly from a right hand starting pitcher such as Alex White of the .403/56 wins/83 losses Colorado Rockies, a last man in a line-up who banged out a home run on Tuesday night, without which the Rockies may not have defeated the San Francisco Giants, 6-5.

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NFL: 2012, the Quarterbacks.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of every week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:    IT’s no secret that the measure of a good NFL quarterback rests with more than his arm. Into account is his playbook execution, in effect, his employment of wide receivers, tight ends and running backs, how he adds to his own protection after the snap, the way that he innovates when plans go awry, so much more. Prevent QB’s Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos), Eli Manning (New York Giants), Tom Brady (New England Patriots), Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers), Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints), Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens), Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles) and Phillip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) from being afield during two or three regular season games, the standings of each club will surely drop back a notch as observers witness the absence of factors that separate “the best QB’s from the rest.” Several differences are quite clear---noted in this week’s Sports Illustrated, the aforementioned QB’s have combined for an average above 300 yards per game, Brees being highest with more than 5,400 total yards last season, Brady close behind with more than 5,000 total yards, the total for the eight listed herein surpassing that of any other list of eight active NFL QB’s.

No question about it, at center the QB is the CEO of all that will happen for his team’s offense as soon as the football is given to him, but that has to be a very brief experience---the best QB’s live to get rid of the football as fast as they can, they know to relinquish their power immediately if not sooner, they hand that ball off hopefully to the creator of a first down or of a touchdown, and for this “good” they must avoid that lightning-fast enemy assault, “the pass rush.” While none of the above-cited QB’s have been sack-immune in a season, and, yes, several have been sacked more than once in a single game, noteworthy is that these top NFL QB’s are rarely sacked more than once during a single drive.

Note, too, that a marginal NFL QB is occasionally “the extra man” on an opposing team’s defense, causing turnovers via bad passes that morph into fumbles or intercepts, or by being scoreless from excessive “punt reliance.” The above-listed QB’s have risen far above this category.

Who, then, will be the top QB’s this year?

Going by motivation alone, we could select Denver’s Peyton Manning, eager to show that after a year away from the game he could lead the Broncos into the post-season, and/or the N.E. Patriots Tom Brady wanting to demonstrate that getting older isn’t a problem for him and that he can shout, “Vengeance is mine,” when possibly topping the N.Y. Giants at the 2013 Super Bowl.

And, Drew Brees must be wanting to prove that the post-scandal New Orleans Saints are a comeback organization, led by his incredibly accurate throws.

But any of the above QB’s could nail “best QB,” in that they achieve “across the board,” they are multi-tool athletes, better than other QB’s at spotting and engaging receivers at hard angles and at the corners, at passing deep or shallow speedily and accurately, at rushing through or over barricades, at escape and evasion, at dominating when taking fourth down risks (knowing “when to hold”), and at understanding when the switch-off for that punt or field goal is necessary (“knowing when to fold”). Some QB’s, like Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick, and maybe the now older Peyton Manning, may not be the very best of the top eight QB's in any of these single performance categories during 2012, but in past seasons they have displayed the fewest vulnerabilities within the categories. 

If there’s a long shot for best QB of the year, it could be rookie, Andrew Luck, straight from Stanford to the Indianapolis Colts, clearly as the QB with the most potential for next-decade NFL offense savvy and execution.

Great now for a leveling of the playing field, is this: a lion’s share of the 32 NFL teams will meet a top league QB three or more times during the 2012 regular season, for instance, this year the Denver Broncos (Peyton Manning) will face Tom Brady (N.E.), Drew Brees (N.O.), Joe Flacco (Balt.), and Phillip Rivers (S.D.); and, last year’s Super Bowl championship team the N.Y. Giants (Eli Manning) will be challenged by Aaron Rodgers (G.B.), Drew Brees (N.O.), Michael Vick (Phila.) and Joe Flacco (Balt.). Last season’s Super Bowl runner-up, the N.E. Patriots (Tom Brady), will see Peyton Manning (Denver), Joe Flacco (Balt.) and Andrew Luck (Ind.). 

The above said, selection of winning teams can go in the direction of a QB’s past record. With Peyton Manning at center, the Broncos have been slotted inside the top 10 among NFL teams for post-season contention, the Super Bowl in range. If that happens, it will be primarily from (1) Strategies incorporating multiple receivers always being free for Manning’s throws (the wise and skillful QB demands, and finds, multiple options), plus Manning always aware that all receivers, the marginal as well as the best, can be open for a pass if only for a second---his ability to get the ball to either is amazingly fast and accurate enough, and (2) the Broncos defense rarely wasting the points leverage attained by Manning’s offense captaincy.

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NFL: 2012, OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE GAME + WINNERS & LOSERS   

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com

“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of every week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:   WE can view the NFL topographically and then zoom in and move about freely, like kids upon a long and wide stretch of carpet, searching east, north, south, west, hoping to gain a sense of which NFL teams will complete a 16 game professional football season as winners, as teams with records better than eight wins/eight losses?

We can go deeper and ask which NFL clubs will participate in post-season matches for division and conference championships, and we can ask which among those teams will be 2012/13 Super Bowl XLVII contenders?

So, NFL-watchers, let’s review some basics, and I mean basics qualifying as an intro to NFL-101, starting with, “The NFL game isn’t for the tender of heart, the mild in spirit or the weak in body. It’s a rough sport, the game that is closest to real war, and it’s been in the vast American consciousness since 1920. It’s here to stay mostly in its present form, even if by mid-season there could be enough players from the league’s disabled lists to form several new teams were they in top condition.”

Any first time NFL observer should be told that the league consists of 32 teams that belong to two conferences, each conference comprising 16 franchises---the American Football Conference, and the National Football Conference. Within each conference, the 16 teams break out into four divisions, four teams per (East, North, South, and West, e.g., the Denver Broncos belong to the AFC West Division, along with the Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, the San Diego Chargers).

Only one of the NFL clubs represents a region of the country, the New England Patriots, and only one club carries the flag of two states, the Carolina Panthers. All other NFL clubs represent U.S. cities, with only one representing a small city by comparison, the Green Bay Packers; and, there are two major city teams slotted within divisions that they are not part of “geographically,” the Indianapolis Colts being within the AFC-South, the Dallas Cowboys belonging to the NFC-East---but this doesn’t matter much, for the players on each of the NFL’s 32 teams are a cross-section of the entire country, the NFL probably being the sports league that is more across-the-land American than any other, given that Major League Baseball and the National Basketball Association sign many players from non-U.S. origins, while NFL franchises rarely scout for players outside the U.S., which could change starting with the possibility that in the next decade London, U.K., may develop a football team for NFL inclusion (the U.K. is where the origins of football can be traced to).

The NFL game is akin to the simple and yet to that which frustrates: a great offense can be winning a football game, and then suddenly the lousy sibling-defense drops it. Want to lose a football match? Send in a defense that is slow to respond and hasn’t the radar that can put each defender where he needs to be to apply bulldozing strength in order to hold the opposing offense in place or to its rear.

Enough about “basics!” Last year’s Super Bowl winner? The NFC’s New York Giants, having defeated the AFC’s New England Patriots.

Since the first Super Bowl in 1967, less than a dozen teams have won it more than once, and only a few of these have won the Super Bowl two or more years in a row, suggesting that football skills stretch wide across the nation. Since year 2000, only two teams have won the Super Bowl more than once---the N.Y. Giants, and the N.E. Patriots. The Denver Broncos won the Super Bowl two years in a row before that, in 1998 and 1999.

The betting money this year is pointing at the N.E. Patriots being number one in the AFC East (Keep in mind that predictions re. NFL teams arrive largely from soothsayers examining the past, the way that military leaders study the last war to decide who can win the next, not a foolproof method since nothing ever stays the same).

For the AFC North, the more informed pundits are leaning toward either the Baltimore Ravens or the Pittsburgh Steelers, again teams that fared well in 2011. In the AFC South, the conservative guess is that the Houston Texans will lead, the risky bet that the Indianapolis Colts will erase doubts with top draft pick QB Andrew Luck on the field, and that the Tennessee Titans will finish the season in the AFC-South’s number three spot.

With regard to the AFC West, the division’s big story is the superb quality of game that will likely be shown by QB Peyton Manning, which can help to move the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC and to the Super Bowl, the soap opera analysts hoping that the Broncos will meet the N.Y. Giants at the Super Bowl, meaning mano y mano for Manning brothers/QB’s Peyton and Eli, these analysts assuming that the N.Y. Giants will be leading the NFC East possibly from September forward---but these analysts need to take a second look at the Tim Tebow-reinforced NFC East N.Y. Jets and the reconstructed NFC East Philadelphia Eagles.

As for the NFC North, it could be a toss-up for numero uno involving the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers, salted for extra-actionable viewing by super-competitive QB’s Jay Cutler (Chi.) and Aaron Rodgers (G.B.).

Regarding the NFC South, predictions are hard to make, in that the division’s better teams are not that far apart in strength and skill-sets, of course the emotional has gone in the direction of the scandalized New Orleans Saints as a number one pick (everyone loves a comeback franchise, especially one from a town that has suffered from the effect of natural disasters). No way, however, can the Atlanta Falcons be set aside---this team has one of best defenses in the NFL).

Underscored finely by this year’s pre-game contests, the NFC West is also hard to choose the best from, for the division can easily be dominated by the San Francisco 49ers, the Arizona Cardinals or the Seattle Seahawks, teams without big differences regarding the effectiveness of their offense and defense squads, which puts the still unwieldy St. Louis Rams at the bottom.

Opening season game to watch---the Denver Broncos/Pittsburgh Steelers September 9 match. Seen will be a Broncos organization restored to serious contention from front office acquisition of the game’s best active QB, Peyton Manning, versus a team seeking revenge, having lost in the 2011 playoffs to Denver. Moreover, the Steelers are a team that will be relying heavily on defense while the Broncos seek points leverage via its Manning-led offense. Two major styles employed by NFL teams will therefore be easily observed, against which we can begin to ask which is best in today’s football environment (of course, just one of many questions that will keep surfacing during the NFL season and beyond)?

END/ml