NFL:   Broncos Up Against the Texans; Round-up,  Week Three

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“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:     THE 2-0 Houston Texans want their winning streak to kick in as a habit, and they want to demonstrate truth of that on Sunday versus the Denver Broncos, a franchise that wants to prove to itself and to the rest of the NFL and fans that it is indeed a formidable contender for post-season competition. Surely after Monday night’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons, the 1-1 Denver team wants to prove that losing isn’t going to be a team habit, not ever and not with quarterback Peyton Manning captaining the Denver offense, joined by top-rated wide receivers, Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, running back Willis McGahee, and supported by a defense that includes pass-rushers Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, and cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter.

            So, which team will be the prevailing points-maker via drives consisting of multiple plays yielding those short gains that add up to successive first downs? Which will win from long passes finding the other side’s red zone, followed by the rush and leap for a TD?

Which will dominate from short passes to a back running 40 or more yards for the TD?

And, which will win by the greater number of field goals?

Which by a two point conversion?

Which because QB pass-protection couldn’t stop faster and stronger linebackers from causing QB disorientation and the sack?

And, which will win from interceptions and fumbles allowing a defender to carry the ball for the TD and then the kicker going for that one point that could make the difference, for example, the 36-35 finish?

Fact: we can’t really know if the Texans or the Broncos will dominate on Sunday. The informed analysts hadn’t expected the Washington Redskins to fold before the St. Louis Rams last week, or that the Indianapolis Colts could lose its first game of the season the way it had. Or that QB Drew Brees wouldn’t be able to make a difference for the New Orleans Saints last week and the week before.

Still, for NFL watchers the informed guess about which team will win and which will lose is a temptation hard to resist. This page will resist that temptation and instead offer observations that could serve a rational though still uncertain pick, for instance, Denver won its first game of the season by a hefty margin, 31-19, versus an anything but weak Pittsburgh defense, and Denver lost game two of the year to the Falcons, 27-21, but by a TD that the offense probably would have obtained were there another minute or so of play. Too, the Manning-led recovery vs. Atlanta after a first quarter humiliation, it continued  until endgame, reflecting a QB-led offense that any other NFL franchise would find hard to suppress.

The Texans have been playing a conservative rushing and short pass game, in spite of QB Matt Schaub’s better than marginal qualities for the deep throw. There’s no reason to think that this style of play by the Texans will change, especially when Denver’s pass-rush ability could anyway force Schaub to attempt numerous ultra-swift handoffs to Texan running backs of the speed and power to force first downs in two or three carries, e.g., Arian Foster, now averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Therefore, if Denver’s defense fails to execute successful pass-rush tactics and block and tackle in order to undo handoffs and rushes speedily, which means being between the football and Texan receivers that are close in and at deep angles, well, other than a tight win by the Broncos will be impossible, assuming, of course, that the Texans defense is enough of a mobile barrier for keeping Manning-led TD’s to a minimum.

If we view plays executed by the Texans on both sides of the ball during games one and two of the season, seen will be one of the more balanced offense/defense relationships within the NFL, in that the defense seems capable of offsetting offense vulnerabilities and preventing the return of any points won from the opposition. Evidence of this lies with the Texans having won each of their two season games to date with double-digit TD’s, the opposing teams unable to score more than one TD.

There may not be enough vulnerabilities within the Texans defense for the Broncos pass-protection in the pocket, and for the team’s downfield open receiver-protection, to exploit play-after-play; and so Broncos receivers avoiding the Texans defense squad’s speed, power and contact via canny maneuvers will surely be a higher priority than usual for the Broncos offense on Sunday. But it’s a fair assumption that this won’t be a consistent happening, which tells us that QB Manning avoiding the Texans pass-rush, and his runners and pass-receivers escaping and evading the Texan defenders, such will have to result in points from numerous drives if the Broncos are to defeat the Texans even by three.

ROUND-UP, WEEK THREE---  IN addition to the Houston Texans, five other teams that are 2-0 as of today are the San Diego Chargers, the Arizona Cardinals, the Atlanta Falcons, the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers, neither scheduled to play teams in week three of the NFL season that they haven’t a fair chance of defeating and putting up a 3-0 record but could also lose to. On Sunday, San Diego will face the Falcons, a game that could low-score alternately into overtime. Arizona will play against Philadelphia, a match that could yield the same result. San Francisco will face the 1-1 Minnesota Vikings. Unique, then, about week three is that four of the six 2-0 teams will be playing each other, and two will be playing 1-1 franchises. That’s eight of 32 teams above or at .500 competing to rise onto the top fourth of the NFL as one fourth of the season comes to a close.

As for the losing teams, that is, the 0-2 franchises, there are four: the Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars and the New Orleans Saints. The Raiders will be playing the 1-1 Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, the Browns will challenge the 1-1 Buffalo Bills, the Jaguars will face the 1-1 Colts, and the Saints will play against the 1-1 Kansas City Chiefs. It is too early in the season to say that the 0-2 franchises will definitely be 0-3 on Monday, but evident is that the 0-2 teams will have to work exceptionally hard to overcome their bad start. Should half of the 2-0 teams lose in week three they will still be winning franchises from a 2-1 record, while the 0-2 teams winning on Sunday will still be losing franchises as they enter the last of the first quarter of season contests.

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