SPORTS NOTEBOOK: 2013

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

NFL: FINAL STRETCH, ANALYSIS; BRONCOS QB PEYTON MANNING, BRONCOS OVER TEXANS, 37-13

Friday, December 20, 2013

NFL: WEEK 16, "PIVOTAL"; BRONCOS AT THE FINISH LINE // NBA: TURNABOUT DAYS // DENVER NUGGETS, ARE THEY PLAYOFF-BOUND?

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: WEEK 16, "PIVOTAL"; BRONCOS AT THE FINISH LINE // NBA: TURNABOUT DAYS; DENVER NUGGETS, ARE THEY PLAYOFF-BOUND? . . // NFL---THE National Conference West’s 12-2 Seattle Seahawks, the franchise that is best in the league today, will face the 9-5 Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Expected to win by 10 or more, the Seahawks could then finish NFL-2013 not only atop the NC but at the apex of NFL-entire, providing that the American Conference’s now leading franchise, the AC West’s 11-3 Denver Broncos, lose on Sunday to the AC South’s 2-12 Houston Texans, which is unlikely, or if the Broncos lose in the following week to the AC West’s last place 4-10 Oakland Raiders, also unlikely. A safer bet is that the NC and AC end-of-season results won’t get in the way of the Seahawks and Broncos entering the post-season as contenders favored by analysts for Super Bowl billets. Thinking that the two will be respective conference champions and then Super Bowl XLVIII’s match-up is not foolish from any angle, although a wider swath of competition could be the NFL-2013 experience from Week 16 into the heart of the post-season, this from among the remaining six division leading teams, which are the AC East’s 10-4 New England Patriots, the AC North’s 9-5 Cincinnati Bengals, the AC South’s 9-5 Indianapolis Colts, the NC South’s 10-4 New Orleans Saints, the NC East’s 8-6 Philadelphia Eagles and the NC North’s 8-6 Chicago Bears, all under the shadows of elimination that darken the road to any SB. And, for wild card breakthroughs and/or division leadership yet are five second place teams, the AC North’s 8-6 Baltimore Ravens, the AC West’s 11-3 Kansas City Chiefs, the NC West’s 10-4 San Francisco 49ers, the NC North’s 7-6 Green Bay Packers, the NC South’s 10-4 Carolina Panthers. That’s a lot of uncertainty for the last stretch of an NFL season. Not even the best moneyballers, not even the lord$ of La$ Vega$, no-one has it figured precisely. . . BRONCOS---BEING on the cover of Sports Illustrated and being the magazine’s choice for Sportsman Of The Year is high-end gratification for Peyton Manning, which he’d trade away in a heartbeat for a Super Bowl win as QB for the now 11-3 Denver Broncos, doubly rewarding if Manning can get to compete for that goal after defeating the now 9-5 Indianapolis Colts, his former team that had let him go after 14 loyal years. Not that climbing over the also 11-3 Kansas City Chiefs, or the 10-4 New England Patriots, or the 9-5 Cincinnati Bengals, wouldn’t be past challenges to cherish while on the way to New Orleans for SB XLVIII, a reasonable guess being that the Broncos would then be facing the Seattle Seahawks, maybe the New Orleans Saints, possibly the Carolina Panthers, or the San Francisco 49ers. BUT---starting with game one of the playoffs, can the Broncos do what a great Samurai facing 50,000 enemy does, defeat one at a time until it is last team standing and that would be the men from Denver? Keep in mind that last year’s post-season loss to the Baltimore Ravens, which cost the Broncos a trip to the SB as other than spectators, that was from a fluke, a Ravens QB Joe Flacco pass that was of the sort that has less than a two percent chance of receivership, yet it happened, robbing Manning and the Broncos of a chance to defeat the 49ers for the Lombardi trophy. And, Manning-year 2012 wasn’t as good as Manning-year 2013. So, let’s look at Sunday’s Broncos versus Texans, the Broncos having won almost as many 2013 games as the Texans have lost. In two of the Texans losses, only three points per each occurred against opposing teams that scored more than 20. Since Week 3, the Texans haven’t won a game, that’s 12 L’s in a row, during which the Texans have given away more than 380 points to their victors. Yet in that period, the Broncos defense, which has been marginal throughout the season, gave away almost 310 points, this difference not one that the Broncos can be giddy over. Also, the 7-7 San Diego Chargers lists among one of two teams that the Texans have managed to defeat this year. During Week 14, the Chargers defeated the Broncos, 27-20, and the second team that the Texans prevailed against this season, the 5-9 Tennessee Titans, they managed to take 28 points away from the Broncos during a Week 13 game, which was the second most points allowed by the Broncos to an opposing team since NFL-2013 began. Still, if the Broncos offense is “on” this Sunday, if it is at the capacity displayed by Manning and company during the Broncos 11 wins, then the Texans will surely lose. A point to be taken here is that a Broncos defense allowing the Texans to own 20 or more points within three periods on Sunday, such will definitely characterize the presumed Broncos victory as a tough haul; it won’t be as easy as was last week’s Seahawks 23-0 victory over the New York Giants and the Colts 25-3 win vs. the Texans. . . NBA---IT took only three days for the Oklahoma City Thunder to leave second position for the lead within the Western Conference Northwest, within the WC itself and inside the entire NBA, pushing the East’s first position and the East’s Central Division first place Indiana Pacers to second position inside the full NBA. The remaining four division leading franchises, the 20-5 San Antonio Spurs (WC Southwest), the 18-9 L.A. Clippers (WC Pacific), the 12-15 Boston Celtics (EC Atlantic) and the 19-6 Miami Heat (EC Southeast), they add to a list of six top teams reflecting a status quo, in that each finished the previous NBA season within the top 10 of the NBA’s 30 teams. How secure are these leading franchises after each has played between 23 and 27 games to date? Not very---only two have substantial leads over their division second position teams, the Pacers being 20-5 over the 13-14 Detroit Pistons, and the 19-6 Miami Heat above the 14-12 Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder is but one win ahead of second place team, the 22-5 Trail Blazers. Eighteen NBA teams are still under .500, while nine are above .600, four of which are at .800 and higher, the .840 Thunder, .815 Trail Blazers, .800 Spurs, and the .800 Pacers. Among the six third position teams, the 15-10 Dallas Mavericks and the 14-12 Golden State Warriors are the two that added wins to their record in the past three days. . . // NUGGETS---THIS Denver NBA team, now 14-10/.583, has been to the playoffs nine years straight, and only once since 2007 have they reached the second round. Given the number of NBA teams that year after year fail to make the playoffs, the Nuggets surely rank just below teams that make the second playoff round and get to the finals, which is like being at the podium after finishing third in a big race that included 30 cars. Can this year be any different for the Nuggets, can they get to the playoffs by playing as they have been since the 2013/14 season began? A positive note is that only twice since the current season began have the Nuggets NOT followed a win with a win. They seem to be winning streak-prone, having won seven in a row November 21 through December 3, and three straight earlier in November. And, the Nuggets have not had a loss with fewer than 88 points (just twice), and no deficit within a loss greater than 15 points (to the Trail Blazers, 113-98, November 1). Also, in 14 of 23 games played the Nuggets managed to score more than 100 points, highest being 117 vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. Too, five of the Nuggets players have already accrued double-digit ppg averages, and as a team the Nuggets have a higher team ppg average over all opposing franchises, 102.1 ppg over 98.9 ppg. In addition, for more than a month the Nuggets have advanced above opposing teams in number of netted field goals, 3-pointers, free throws, and in number of rebounds, blocks, steals and assists. However, there’s a factor hard to assess and predict a future for, this: “The rate of games won vs. losses as a season progresses.” For the 82 games that the Nuggets will complete on the day that the current season ends, 50 wins is the magic number if the Nuggets are to obtain a playoff berth easily. Right now, with 24 games already over, the team’s 14-10 record with 58 games left to play is a pace that can reach 50 Nuggets wins by April 16, which is the day of the Nuggets last 2013/14 regulation game (vs. Golden State). In other words, the Nuggets current win/loss pace can yield 28 wins within the next 48 games that the Nugget must play, which means that the Nuggets will have accrued 42 wins from 62 games played and can then win eight of the rest that have to be played, total by season’s end: “50 wins,” which is what can get a team to the playoffs. The next and harder question is, “Can the Nuggets maintain its current win/loss pace?” Between now and the end of 2013, are six Nuggets challenges only two of which are against weaker franchises, the 11-13 New Orleans Pelicans and the 10-15 Memphis Grizzlies. The five other matches include two first position teams, the 19-6 Miami Heat and the 18-9 L.A. Clippers, and two teams that have been winning as much or more than the Nuggets have, the 14-10 Phoenix Suns and the 14-12 Golden State Warriors; and from January 1 through January 31 the Nuggets will be facing three top franchises, the 12-15 Boston Celtics, the 20-5 Indiana Pacers and the 22-5 Portland Trail Blazers. That’s seven hard challenges. If these become losses for the Nuggets, the team’s 14-10 win/loss pace will slow and diminish as a rate of progress, making it difficult for the Nuggets to achieve the desired 50 for playoff candidacy. For the Nuggets, winning the hard seven now through January 31 is crucial if the team is to obtain playoff-candidacy. Also, as to whether or not the Nuggets can get to the playoffs second round, the answer could lie within how well the team does when playing against the aforementioned hard seven, the latter likely to be those teams also reaching the playoffs. END/ml

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

NFL; WEEK 15, OUTLOOK; BRONCOS & SUPERBOWL XLVIII // NBA: STANDINGS @ 20+

Saturday, December 14, 2013

NFL: WEEK 15 "OUTLOOK;" BRONCOS LOSS TO THE CHARGERS

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . //. . . NFL: WEEK 15 “OUTLOOK;” BRONCOS LOSS TO THE CHARGERS. . . //. . . NFL--IF drama, if story, if suspense happens to be your thing, then NFL-2013 at Week 15 is for you. Example, the American Conference West’s 11-3 Denver Broncos are no longer a cinch for division and league leadership, this from a Thursday night 27-20 loss to AC West’s third place 7-7 San Diego Chargers, opening a window for the AC East’s 10-3 New England Patriots to fill that position providing that they prevail against the AC East’s 7-6 Miami Dolphins on Sunday and then the AC North’s 7-6 Baltimore Ravens during the following Sunday, and, of course, that the Broncos lose during Week 16 to the AC South’s now 2-11 Houston Texans. Not from any vantage point are these impossible happenings, in spite of the odds favoring the Broncos over the Texans by a wide margin. . . MEANWHILE, the AC West’s 10-3 Kansas City Chiefs are at the heels of the Broncos, in that a Chiefs win over the AC West’s 4-9 Oakland Raiders on Sunday, and then a Chiefs win versus the 8-5 Indianapolis Colts during the following Sunday, plus the possible Broncos Week 16 loss to the Texans, such could make the Chiefs division numero uno as NFL-2013 regulation closes. . . AND, except for the AC East’s Patriots 3-game lead above second place team, the Dolphins, all other division leading franchises are today owners of but a one or two game lead atop second position teams. These other division leading franchises could finish the season at second or third position if teams behind them ascend. . . WEEK 15, then, is a period of much uncertainty. Further evidence of this is that within the AC North, the 7-6 Baltimore Ravens can push back today’s first place team, the 9-4 Cincinnati Bengals, by defeating the NC North’s 7-6 Detroit Lions on Monday night after the possibility of a Bengals loss on Sunday to the AC North’s 5-8 Pittsburgh Steelers. Also, should the AC South’s 8-5 Colts lose to the Texans on Sunday (unlikely, though it could happen) and to the Chiefs during Week 16, and the now AC South’s 5-8 Tennessee Titans defeat the NC West’s 8-5 Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and takes down the AC South’s 4-9 Jacksonville Jaguars during Week 16, the Titans could then own the AC South. . . MOREOVER, inside the NC the NC West’s 11-2 Seattle Seahawks can drop from first to second place if they lose to the NC East’s 5-8 New York Giants on Sunday and to the NC West’s 8-5 Cardinals in the following week, if simultaneously the 9-4 San Francisco 49ers unravel the 4-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, next the NC South’s 3-10 Atlanta Falcons during Week 16. . . FURTHERMORE, within the NC East the 8-5 Philadelphia Eagles are today only one game over second place team, the 7-5 Dallas Cowboys, while inside the NC North the 7-6 Detroit Lions are just one win ahead of the 6-6 Chicago Bears, while within the NC South the 10-3 New Orleans Saints are only one game ahead of the 9-4 Carolina Panthers. The Lions would have to lose to the Ravens this Monday, and the Bears would need to defeat the AC North’s 4-9 Cleveland Browns on Sunday, for the two to reverse positions; and, for that to happen within the NC South the Saints must lose to the NC West’s 5-8 St Louis Rams during Week 15 and the Panthers have to undo the AC East’s 6-7 N.Y. Jets on Sunday. Yes, current win/loss records, and other data, suggest that for most of the above-listed NFL teams their Week 15 and Week 16 outcomes will reflect a status quo, i.e., win/loss records and other stats say that that today’s division-leading NFL teams will keep their current slots. . . STILL, if the Chargers could “surprisingly” overtake the Broncos the way that they did on Thursday night, well, anything could happen. For teams at the top directly after Week 15, NFL could truly be the acronym that players like to use when discussing career or status longevity---“NFL---Not For Long.” . . . //. . . BRONCOS, CHARGERS---WHEN a season is over and players look back, before them will be seen the proverbial good, bad and ugly, among the worst a game such as the AC West’s now 11-3 Denver Broncos 27-20 loss to the AC West’s 7-7 third place San Diego Chargers on Thursday night, this largely from a Broncos defense that throughout NFL-2013 has had only short periods of effectiveness equaling the power and skills of the Broncos offense, the latter being at its worst versus the Chargers on Thursday, Week 15. Obvious here is that a loss for the Broncos is practically guaranteed when the Broncos offense retreats to mediocrity, in that the Broncos defense, as now constructed and as it has performed almost game-by-game since September, is likely to give up 19 or more points no matter which team that the Broncos are facing. One way to describe this is that the Broncos offense has been in the butt-saving business during 11 games so far this season, and attached to this is a truth about Broncos QB Peyton Manning, this: while being the NFL’s best QB afield today, Manning still has, like all above-the-margin QB’s since football was invented, “Vulnerabilities.” Super-heroes are for the comic books. No great athlete has a career without some ditches in the road. Like all superb athletes, Manning will still have off-game moments, just less frequently than arrival of the downturns that afflict other NFL QB’s, but when it happens at a crucial moment it can devastate, like that fourth Q interception that turned Sunday around for the Chargers, with the 27 of 41 passes that Manning completed and that resulted in two touchdowns diminishing as possible game-savers. . . SADLY, the Broncos defense hadn’t helped the Manning-led offense to more than 21 minutes of ball possession while they helped the opposing Chargers offense to accrue 38 minutes, enough for Chargers QB Phillip Rivers to drive his offense for three TD’s off of 337 total yards, within which were 177 yards from rushing. The most yards gained rushing by a Broncos RB on Sunday stunned---just 19, all by one RB, Knowshon Moreno. And, Broncos QB/receiver “completion connectivity” was absent way too often---not one of Manning’s “preferred” WR’s caught to score, it took a largely unknown Broncos reserve-WR to set up 12 points, Andre Caldwell. Was Chargers QB Rivers out-manning Manning, was he the outstanding QB? He didn’t have to struggle to be this, and he wasn’ta version of Manning at Manning's best, though Rivers was certainly above mediocrity. On Thursday, the Broncos defense was Rivers partner, an opportunity for Rivers to shine. Though Rivers accrued fewer than 170 yards for the Chargers, it led to 24 first downs vs. the Broncos 19 first downs. Via weak Broncos defenses, Rivers managed to lead the Broncos from second Q onward. . . THE Broncos remaining two challenges appear to be easy wins, first against the AC South’s 2-11 Texans on December 22, with last game of the season vs. the AC West’s last place team, the 4-9 Oakland Raiders, December 29. However, we cannot discount the fact that 19 or more points given away to either challenger by the Broncos defense could set the Broncos up for weak playoff capacity, for an 11-5 season finish if indeed the Broncos Manning-led offense has peaked and repeats the performance exhibited Thursday night vs. the Chargers. This is an unlikely happening, according to just about every NFL analyst, what stat guys label, “Low probability.” END/ml.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

NFL: WEEK 14, ANALYSIS; BRONCOS DEFEAT OF THE TITANS // SUPER READS, 2013 SPORTS BOOKS, FINE AS XMAS GIFTS

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: WEEK 14, ANALYSIS; BRONCOS DEFEAT OF THE TITANS // SUPER READS, 2013 SPORTS BOOKS, FINE AS XMAS GIFTS. . . // NFL---ON Sunday, the now 11-2 American Conference West Denver Broncos defeated the AC South’s currently second place team, the Tennessee Titans, 51-28, and the National Conference West’s 10-2 Seattle Seahawks lost to the NC West’s 9-4 San Francisco 49ers, 19-17, which frames the Broncos in super-hero format, as the only NFL-2013 franchise that will enter Week 15 leading a division, a conference and the league itself, while also holding lock and key for a playoff billet, a position that the Seahawks might have obtained had they defeated the 49ers. . . Other division leading franchises that won Week 14 games were the AC East’s now 10-3 New England Patriots over the AC South’s last place team, the 2-10 Houston Texans, 34-31, and the NC South’s 10-3 New Orleans Saints prevailing against the NC South’s second place franchise, the 9-4 Carolina Panthers. . . Of the remaining division leading teams, three lost during Week 14 but kept their first place positions, while the NC East’s 7-5 Dallas Cowboys reversed to second place after the NC East’s now 8-5 Philadelphia Eagles beat the Arizona Cardinals, 24-21, grabbing first place. . . Of the division first place franchises that lost on Sunday, only one projects a guaranteed Week 16 division title, the AC South’s 8-5 Indianapolis Colts, now three games ahead of second place team, the Titans. On Sunday, the Colts lost to the AC North’s 8-4 Cincinnati Bengals, 42-28. . . But it is too late for 13 NFL teams to reach past .500 by Week 16, given scheduled opponents that are likely to defeat them, and due to the limited number of games left in the season for them to leap forward re. number of wins. The unlucky 13 are the now 4-9/.338 Oakland Raiders, 4.9/.308 Buffalo Bills, 5-8/.385 Pittsburgh Steelers, 4.9/.308 Cleveland Browns, the 5-8/385 Titans, the 4-9/.308 Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-11/.154 Texans (Ugh!), 5.8/.385 St. Louis Rams, 5.8/.385 New York Giants, 3-10/.231 Washington Redskins, 3.9/.269 Minnesota Vikings, the 4-9/.308 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the 3-10/.231 Atlanta Falcons. Surely of much study and crunching in the off-season will be of that which has caused the “unholy unpredictable” to happen, i.e., “How could the Texans, Falcons, Redskins and N.Y. Giants land at the back end of the NFL-2013 grid?” . . . // BRONCOS, TITANS---THE NFL game isn’t always a pass venture, but if you are Broncos quarterback and NFL legend, Peyton Manning, you prefer it that way. Against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, Manning threw for almost 400 yards and four touchdowns, including his 45th TD of the season, five short of Patriots QB Tom Brady’s 50, with enough games ahead for Manning to go one or more better; final score against the Titans, 51-28, the third NFL-2013 contest during which the Broncos scored more than 50 points. Noteworthy is that the Broncos win against the Titans happened as comeback stuff, with the Broncos behind as the first quarter closed, 14-10, then back of the Titans at half time, 21-20. The magic kicked in during the third Q, which ended with the Broncos ahead, 34-28, and it formed completely with 17 additional Broncos points in the fourth Q, while the Broncos defense finally purchased 15 minutes without giving up a penny, as if having allowed more than 20 points to the Titans was a stirring wake-up call, reminding the Broncos defenders that the danger of points given away increases as fourth Q minutes fly by. Meanwhile, it’s what exists back of points-earned that addresses the superb offense. By endgame, the Broncos offense had advantaged the Titans in just about every major game category---39 first downs vs. the Titans 15, plus a gain of 551 net yards, the Titans with but 254. The Broncos attained 39 minutes of ball possession, the Titans bought 20 minutes. There were 32 Broncos rushing plays vs. the Titans 22, and the Broncos rushed for more than 150 yards vs. the Titans 99. Manning’s 397 passing yards was met by Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 172. Manning completed 39 passes of 59 attempts, Fitzpatrick 13 of 24. . . OUTSTANDING: Broncos kicker Matt Prater’s amazing field goal from the Titans 46 yard line. . . Next up for the Broncos, the AC West’s third place and 6-7/.462 San Diego Chargers, defeated by the Broncos during Week 10, 28-20. . . // BOOKS---TELLING it like it is makes for good reading, and telling it like it is with some humor thrown in along with the realism, well, that’s even better, and that is what former NFL WR and TE, Nate Jackson, has delivered in SLOW GETTING UP, an unveiling of what it’s like to be in the NFL wars from energetic and hopeful rookie year to seasons when cynicism could settle in as one’s philosophy regarding professional sports. Jackson’s prose is strong and yet cool, covering what’s relevant for a thorough understanding of today’s NFL game and of what is in the hearts of those players who “dare to dare,” who struggle to find and hold to civility among the violence and busine$$ nuance$ that can destroy that (240 pages, Harper-Collins). . . NO PLAN B---This is a lively and full accounting of the transformation “and transport” of an athlete misperceived, of talent thought mistakenly to be in decline and of its travel upward from that perception. NO PLAN B is also the story of an unnecessary team loss becoming another team’s big win, told through the actions of players, head coach and a front office exec (former QB great, John Elway). Another title for this book by Denver Post sportswriter, Mark Kiszla, could have been, “The Peyton Manning Saga, Part Two.” It is mainly about Peyton Manning being let go by the Indianapolis Colts, his joining the Denver Broncos and leading an offense that in two years has made franchise history and pulled the Broncos back to elite NFL status. Warning: this book isn’t anywhere near to being about what it’s like to be any quarterback in the NFL, it’s about the exception, of a QB that is the outstanding QB, the ideal QB, the QB of whom there are only one or two around in any season. The author has delivered this with great thoroughness, so that a reader can know Peyton Manning “the unusual better and extremely well-liked and respected man,” and why Manning is the superb athlete that he has become and can still be. Humanizing what appears super-human isn’t easy---Kiszla has managed to do this, his accounting of the Manning transition from Indianapolis to Denver is a Manning-like spiral (182 pages, Taylor Trade Publishing). . . SPORTS & THE HEROIC---Want a book emphasizing why sports matter, how its best performers have reflected what’s best about all of us, and what could stand correction, as well? By author Marvin Leibstone (Ed., Publ., Sports Notebook), this book gets the job done, recounting key events in baseball, football, basketball, other major sports, that give pause, that can cause us to think about the strategies and tactics that can deliver success in nearly all endeavors. Covered in detail are actual events and the athletes participating within them, teh latter demonstrating great courage, integrity and persistence against the odds (153 pages, XLIBRIS). . . These books are available through Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and through most other book outlets. END/ml

Friday, December 6, 2013

NFL: WEEK 14---BRONCOS, SEAHAWKS, OTHERS AT BASE OF THE SUMMIT // NBA: AROUND THE HORN; NUGGETS & BREAKING "GOOD."

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

NFL: CLOSE TO THE WIRE AT WEEK 14; BRONCOS DEFEAT OF THE CHIEFS // NBA: HIGH GROUND, LOW & THE MIDDLE

Friday, November 29, 2013

NFL: WEEK 13 OUTLOOK; BRONCOS & CHIEFS, CHAPTER TWO // NBA: LEAGUE UPDATES; KNICKS & NUGGETS.

sports-notebook.blogspot.com. . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . //. . . NFL: WEEK 13 OUTLOOK; BRONCOS & CHIEFS, CHAPTER 2 // NBA: LEAGUE UPDATES; KNICKS & NUGGETS. . . //. . . NFL---WEEK 13 kicked in on Thanksgiving Day and altered the NFL galaxy, but without extreme upheavals, no harsh storms, although the Green Bay Packers were close to the effects of thunder and lightning in a loss to the NC North’s first place and now 6-5 franchise, the Detroit Lions, score: 40-10 (Ugh!). The Packers dropped to 5-6 but are still at third position within the NC North, while the loss put the Lions at a single win above NC North’s second place team, the 6-5 Chicago Bears. Also, the NC East’s now 7-5 Dallas Cowboys maintained first place after defeating the AC West’s last place team and now 4-8 Oakland Raiders, 31-24. Today, the Cowboys have a single win ahead of NC East’s second place franchise, the 6-5 Philadelphia Eagles. Yet the only NC team with a commanding lead over a second place division team remains the 10-1 Seattle Seahawks, three wins above the 7-4 Arizona Cardinals. Leading the NC South still, and second best within the NC, that’s the 9-2 New Orleans Saints, which are a game up on second place team, the 8-3 Carolina Panthers. The Seahawks are still atop the NFL-entire, and the only NFL franchise with double digit wins. . . The American Conference franchises entering Week 13 as division leaders are the AC West’s 9-2 Denver Broncos and 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs, both of a commanding lead over AC West’s third position team, the 5-6 San Diego Chargers. . . The AC East is still led by the currently 8-3 New England Patriots, three wins ahead of second place team, the New York Jets; and, the NC North’s 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals are a single win over second place team, the 6-6 Baltimore Ravens, which defeated the now 5-7 Pittsburgh Steelers yesterday, 22-20, forcing the Steelers back into AC North’s third place slot. . . Week 13’s super thrillers will be Sunday’s AC West’s Broncos/Chiefs match-up and the AC South’s Colts/Titans match-up, and Monday night’s NC West’s Seahawks/NC South’s Saints game. The three contests will compete first and second place division franchises of nearly equal records and close parity regarding offense and defense skills. The outcomes could rearrange NFL-2013’s division leading standings dramatically, pushing second place franchises into number one slots, the current firsts to second. Two of these teams could join the Seahawks as double-digit winners for Week 14’s approach (Broncos or Chiefs, the Saints). . . Elsewhere in the NFL-entire, the NC West’s 7-4 San Francisco 49ers could reinforce their hold on second place behind the Seahawks by defeating the 5-6 St. Louis Rams on Sunday, a possible 49ers win by six or less (More so, if same day the current NC West’s third place 7-4 Cardinals lose to the NC East’s 6-5 Eagles, though expected to happen is a Cardinals slim win). But if the Eagles should win versus the Cardinals on Sunday, they will be tied with first place Dallas re. number of wins. And, should the 6-5 Chicago Bears take down the NC North’s 2-8 Minnesota Vikings on Sunday (Odds say the Bears will finish ahead by three, seven at the most), they will have the same number of wins as first place team, the Lions. If on Sunday the NC South’s Panthers defeat the NC South’s 3-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is likely with as much as a 10 point lead, and the NC South’s now numero uno Saints lose to the Seahawks on Monday night (Either could win by three, maybe seven), the Panthers will be tied with the Saints at first position, 9-3 apiece. . . With regard to AC play, a Broncos loss to the Chiefs on Sunday will reverse the top AC West positions, placing the Chiefs over the Broncos as number one (this, too, by either having a three or seven point win) and Sunday’s likely Patriots win by 10 or more over the AC South’s last place 2-9 Houston Texans will increase their AC East number one lead, while if the second place 5-6 Jets lose to the NC East’s 5-6 Miami Dolphins on Sunday (Neither is favored by significant odds, expected is a tight game, a win by either with three up) the Dolphins will replace the Jets as the AC East’s second place franchise, three wins behind the first place Patriots. Inside the AC North, the 7-4 Bengals are favored for a win vs. the AC West’s 5-6 Chargers, which will keep the Bengals to their number one slot; and if the 7-4 Colts fall to the 5-6 Titans on Sunday the latter will be but one win behind the former and three wins ahead of third place team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, providing that the Jaguars win vs. the 4-7 Cleveland Browns same day, likely to happen by under seven points. . . The Colts/Titans game on Sunday will seem a mirror image of the Broncos/Chiefs contest, the outcome unpredictable, either team a winner probably by no more than the six or seven cited herein, with a Titan win delivering a reversal of first and second positions within the AC South. . . Most unique about Week 13 is that six last place + beneath .500 teams will be playing one another, e.g., the 2-9 Jaguars against the 4-7 Browns, the 3-8 Washington Redskins against the 4-7 N.Y. Giants, the 4-7 Buffalo Bills vs. the 2-9 Atlanta Falcons, neither of which has a proper chance of finishing NFL-2013 above the margin, that is, it’s unlikely that any of them will reach 8-8 as the season closes, they will finish as losing franchises. But these teams are close to parity with regard to power and skills---if you have watched NASCAR enough, you know that often the best competition within a race is at the back of the grid, where drivers compete not to win, place or show but to be just ahead of the last set of cars to finish. For sure, the Giants/Redskins match-up won’t be an afternoon of badminton, our take the winner by three. . . //. . . CHIEFS, BRONCOS---THE Denver Broncos haven’t lost to the Kansas City Chiefs this year, nor have they lost to any other AC West franchise during NFL-2013, which has contributed to the Broncos now being atop the AC West. Were it not for the Broncos loss to the AC East’s New England Patriots last week, we might think of the Broncos record versus AC West teams as surety that the Denver franchise will on Sunday again defeat the Chiefs. However, standing out among other problems within the Broncos loss to the Patriots were overarching Broncos happenings, (1) Unexpected diminishment of speed and accuracy of movement on the part of the Broncos QB Manning-led offense, with a slip-sliding of Manning’s throw talent, and (2) A Broncos defense that crumbled in the game’s second half, after having a superb first half. Only in two of the 11 season games that the Broncos have played this year have the Broncos defenders kept from giving up 20 or more points to opposing teams. To the Patriots last week, the Broncos defense gave up 34 points, against which the Manning-led offense failed to provide more than 31. This suggests that the Chiefs will embrace football’s Defense-101, they will focus primarily on the pass rush vs. QB Manning, on tight coverage of running backs Knowshon Moreno and Monte Ball and on a Chiefs secondary shielding against QB Manning’s preferred ball receivers Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker. With regard to a Chiefs offense, we can expect to see emphasis on pass protection and on a rough balance among rushes and short passes pursued by Chiefs QB, Alex Smith. To the grace side for the Broncos, though, are lots of numbers. For instance, the least number of points given away to an opposing team by the Broncos defense this year has been 17---to the Chiefs, Week 11. Too, the Broncos have accumulated 36 receiver touchdowns and 10 rushing TD’s so far this season, while the Chief’s have 14 and nine respectively. Also, the Broncos have received for 3,732 yards this season, the Chiefs for 2,443; the Broncos 1,331 rushing yards, Chiefs 1329 (no suggestion of a setback here for the Broncos). And, that the Broncos have to date accrued 429 points Weeks 1 through 12, the Chiefs but 270, such favors the Broncos for a Sunday win---until we compare total number of points given away by the Broncos defense during Weeks 1 through 12, with those allowed by the Chiefs defense: Broncos 289, Chiefs 119. In only two of these Broncos games had the Broncos defense given up less than 20 points. In the Chiefs 11 games played to date, the Chiefs defense dropped less than 20 in nine of its 11 NFL-2013 games played. . . So, the math indicates parity, while last week’s Broncos loss to the Patriots does not. . . An argument can be made that the failure to win vs. the Patriots was due mostly to the Broncos losing to themselves, not so much to the opponent, and, yes, to cold temperatures and rough winds, to too much reliance on a rushing game, with WR’s unable to achieve proper timing and space for Manning’s throws, and pass and catch difficulty resulting from weather conditions. If the Broncos have recovered from the Patriots loss, we see a Broncos win from anywhere between three and 10 points. . . //. . . NBA---EIGHT of the 30 NBA-2013/14 franchises have reached double-digit wins, six from the West, only two from the East, yet best among the two from the East re. number of wins are the Eastern Conference’s Central Division’s 14-1 Indiana Pacers and the East’s Atlantic Division’s 12-3 Miami Heat. Next in line within the East are the Southeast Division’s second place 8-8 Atlanta Hawks. . . Best within the West are the Northwest Division’s 13-3 Portland Trail Blazers and the Southwest Division’s 13-2 San Antonio Spurs, while next in line are the Southwest Division’s 11-5 Houston Rockets and the Pacific Division’s 11-5 Los Angeles Clippers. . . Recently up from the clod, that is, up from .500, are the West’s Northwest 8-6 Denver Nuggets, the 8-7 Memphis Grizzlies. Also holding just above .500, are the Pacific Division’s 8-7 Phoenix Suns. . . Still occupying the basement are the WC Northwest’s 2-14 Utah Jazz, and the EC Central’s 2-12 Milwaukee Bucks. . . Of the five teams comprising the EC Atlantic, none, not even number one team, the Toronto Raptors, has more than six wins as of today, with fourth place team, the Brooklyn Nets, only two games out from first position, and last place N.Y. Knicks at 3-11, three games behind first place. . . KNICKS, NUGGETS---TOO much focus on the past can lean a team into defeat. Within the NBA, as in life, concentrating mostly on the present is a better way of winning. Denver fans may be conflicted and angry still with regard to former Nuggets star, Carmelo Anthony, leaving Denver two NBA seasons ago to play for the New York Knicks, but that’s not what Nuggets head coach Brian Shaw and Nuggets floor leader and guard, Ty Lawson, or other Nuggets starters, will be thinking about tonight when the Knicks and the Nuggets face off at Denver’s Pepsi Center. The Nuggets will be challenged by a Carmelo Anthony still capable of averaging 25.5 points per game, that which no Nuggets starter is anywhere near. Therefore, defending against the big shooter Anthony will be primary, and important, too, will be the fast speed of transition from offense to defense that the Nuggets now seem able to pull off without any degradation of positioning for the block, the rebounds set for a fast break, and if the continuous ball sharing, the assists, the variance among shots performed by the Nuggets in recent games prevails, it will then be a Nuggets win over a Knicks team that has lacked improvisation against franchises that can employ a balanced five-man + bench aspects strategy over the support for one or two super shooters. The Knicks have been relying on the conventional game, and so teams are beating them from the unconventional, from the surprise assault and the mostly mobile defense, it’s a standard approach losing to some new tactics, where the Nuggets are of concern to what can aptly be labeled, “Shawcraft” END/ml.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

to all our readers HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

NFL: ANALYSIS, WEEK 12; A BRONCOS LOSS TO THE PATRIOTS // NBA: the STANDINGS; DENVER NUGGETS, RISING!

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . //. . . NFL: ANALYSIS, WEEK 12; A BRONCOS LOSS TO THE PATRIOTS // NBA: the STANDINGS; NUGGETS, RISING! . . . NFL---NO-one saw it coming, the American Conference West’s currently 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs losing to the 5-6 AC West’s San Diego Chargers, 41-38, allowing the now 9-2 Denver Broncos to maintain first position within the division, though the Broncos lost on Sunday to the AC East’s first place New England Patriots, 34-31. Nor did anyone think that the National Conference West’s second place 7-4 Arizona Cardinals would defeat the AC South’s first place franchise, the 7-4 Indianapolis Colts, on Sunday, 40-11, or that the NC South’s now 3-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take down the NC North’s first place team, the 6-5 Detroit Lions on the same day, 24-21, or that the NC West’s last place team, the now 5-6 St. Louis Rams, would dump the NC North’s second place team, the Chicago Bears, 42-21. So, Week 12 could be characterized as a week of expectation turnovers. However, except for the 6-5 Philadelphia Eagles slipping from first to second position within the NC East from being at Bye-week and Dallas moving up to first place from defeating the N.Y. Giants, 24-21, the seven other AC and NC divisions have remained where they were in the standings, the more commanding lead among these Brahmins still no greater than a three games-won edge, that held by the AC East’s Patriots over second place team, the 5-6 New York Jets, and the 10-1 Seattle Seahawks atop the 7-4 Cardinals. The 10-1 Seahawks are still the only NFL-2013 team to have accrued double-digit wins. So, which divisions, and which of the two conferences, appear to be best regarding number of wins? Within the AC, no division leading franchise has fewer than seven wins and more than four losses, while the NC has two division leading teams with but six wins apiece and two that have five losses. Inside the AC, only one franchise has no more than two wins to date, while within the NC there are two franchises with only two wins and a franchise with only three wins. Yet the number of AC wins during Week 1 through 12 tops at 89, and the NC has a total of 88 wins. Implied then is parity among the two conferences. Best division within NFL-entire, that’s the NC West---28 wins, while the AC West is second within the league with 27 wins, another sign of parity. Lowest number of wins belongs to the AC South, NC East and NC North, each with a total of 19 for the season thus far, also no sign of a big divide. But looking at standings another way, of the 16 of 32 NFL franchises that are below .500, that is, beneath the line drawn between winning and losing teams, 11 reside within the AC, six inside the NC. . . // . . . BRONCOS, PATRIOTS---THE better value that the Denver Broncos could take away from its 38-34 loss in overtime to the New England Patriots on Sunday is having built a 17-0 lead inside the first quarter and going to 24-7 at the half. It was downhill afterward, the Broncos defense unable to stop a QB Tom Brady-led Patriots offense from scoring 21 points in the third Q and 10 in the fourth. A QB Peyton Manning-led drive put another TD on the board in the fourth Q, forcing the game into OT, during which the Patriots offense reached close enough for a field goal that gave them the OT win. This was indeed a turnabout from a game expected to be the proverbial nip-and-tuck battle from start to finish, though it kind of ended that way. In that first Q, the Patriots offense was as if they’d had a late lunch of too much pasta, while the Broncos defense was savvy, fast, a moving wall everywhere afield. In the first half, the Broncos offense kept to critical paths, with several lines forward found open for a rushing strategy that the Patriots hadn’t expected. But by the third Q, the Patriots head coach and QB had figured out what the Broncos were up to and had the advantage of strong winds interfering with the passing game that Manning would have preferred to switch to and now couldn’t rely on wind factors for the long throw, surely among reasons why the Broncos offense could not pull off what it had been able to do in Weeks 1 though 11, offset the points lost to an opposing team from weaknesses within the Broncos defense, flaws surely evident in the second half versus the Patriots, e.g., the Denver pass rush unit being unable to adjust to Patriots QB Brady gaining leg and receiver-recognition speed starting with the third Q; nor were Broncos defenders able to interfere enough with the sharp cuts taken by Patriots receivers for QB Brady’s short passes . . . Doubly sad for any team is that its outstanding game stats can seem meaningless when a loss occurs---by the last seconds of OT, the Broncos had managed to have more ball possession time than the Patriots had, more first downs, many more rushing yards, a greater average gain in yards per rush than achieved by the Patriots, and in the first half had converted fumbles into points. And though QB Brady completed more passes for more yards than QB Manning, the latter QB completed nearly 50 percent of attempted throws, 19 of 36, this under extreme wind conditions. Noteworthy, of course, was Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno accruing 224 yards from 37 attempts. That the Broncos rushed for 280 yards and the Patriots for but 116 speaks well for the Broncos. That the Patriots passed for 344 yards and the Broncos 150 when more than 300 has been a Broncos norm, such takes some glow away from the QB Manning-led offense . . . //. . . NBA: EXCEPT for the now 7-6 and above .500 Denver Nuggets moving to third place within the Western Conference’s Northwest Division, plus the 10-5 Houston Rockets going to second within the WC Southwest, also the 8-6 Golden State Warriors dropping from first to second inside the WC Pacific, and the EC Atlantic’s 3-10 Brooklyn Nets easing upward from last to fourth, “a status quo has prevailed within NBA-2013/14,” in that five of the six division leading NBA teams of last week are holding there, and some have increased their lead considerably, for example, the EC Central’s number one team, the now 13-1 Indiana Pacers, are now seven wins ahead of second place team, the 6-7 Chicago Bulls, and the WC Northwest’s 13-2 Portland Trail Blazers are four wins up over second place team, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Yet 13 NBA teams are still below .500, 12 of them within the EC, worst league-wide being the WC Northwest’s 2-14/.125 Utah Jazz. . . //. . . DENVER NUGGETS---AFTER defeating the WC Southwest’s third place 9-6 Dallas Mavericks in two consecutive matches, the WC Northwest’s now 7-6 Denver Nuggets have lifted above .500 and moved to third position, five games behind WC Northwest’s first place team, the Portland Trail Blazers. When a team gets it that in offense it’s good, maybe very good, certainly more effective than several other teams but not in enough ways to be lax a bit in defense, it begins to take defense as seriously as it covets the assault for shots taken; the team stops relying on the offense more than defense to bring in the W. This may or not be what is beginning to define the Denver Nuggets this NBA season, but what’s been visible in recent games is a better Nuggets defense, a stretching of the envelope vertically as well as horizontally and with more speed of transition into it from the offense whether or not a shot has netted points, this without a decrease in offense capacity. In fact, the Nuggets offense has had a positive unexpected twist, that of players new to the Nuggets shining when usually more time is needed for new team adjustments, for instance, Jordan Hamilton netting for points turning a game around in the team’s favor, and, like last night vs. the Mavericks, J.J. Hicks having a 22 ppg, completing eight of 11 attempts, and this in an away from home game, both these players reminiscent of guard Ty Lawson’s first year with the Nuggets, with Lawson now showing some better performances. Last night, Lawson accrued 11 assists and scored 19 points. What’s the big statement now for the Nuggets? A familiar cry throughout much of the NBA---“Consistency, consistency, consistency, on the road as well as at home.” On Friday, the Nuggets will face the 3-10/.231 New York Knicks, forward Carmelo Anthony aboard, this team that he fled to from Denver now at last place, EC Atlantic. END/ml

Friday, November 22, 2013

NFL: WEEK 12---OUTLOOK; BRONCOS, PATRIOTS, MANNING & BRADY // NBA: GOOD STARTS, BAD STARTS; NUGGETS DEFEAT OF THE BULLS.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

NFL: WEEK 11, ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK; BRONCOS TOPPLE THE CHIEFS // NBA, UNBOUND.

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: WEEK 11, ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK; BRONCOS TOPPLE THE CHIEFS // NBA, UNBOUND . . . // NFL---A FINAL five weeks of NFL play will reveal teams for the division and conference playoffs leading to Super Bowl XLVIII. Officially, that is, in that Week 11 of NFL-2013 has probably lifted the curtain fully on likely end-of-season winning franchises, led now by the National Conference West’s 10-1 Seattle Seahawks, first to achieve double-digit victories during 2013, after defeating the NC North’s 2-8 Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, 41-20. Number two within the NFL today, and first within the American Conference West and second inside NFL-entire, that’s the now 9-1 Denver Broncos, Sunday’s winner versus the AC West’s now 9-1 Kansas City Chiefs. No longer an undefeated franchise, the Chiefs are second to the Broncos within the AC West from insufficient points, and second inside the AC-entire while third within the full NFL. Holding at fourth within the NFL’s two conferences, and number one inside the NC and NC South, that’s the 8-2 New Orleans Saints after taking down NC West’s 6-4 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, 23-20. As to the remaining division leading franchises, except for the AC North’s 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals lead over the 4-6 Pittsburgh Pirates, plus the AC South’s 7-3 Indianapolis Colts being atop the 4-6 Tennessee Titans, and the AC East’s 7-5 New England Patriots now above the 5-5 New York Jets, all other division leading franchises have but one win atop their respective second position teams. That leaves three of eight divisions that could see new leading teams after Week 12---the AC West, providing that next Sunday the Broncos lose to the Patriots and that the Chiefs defeat the 4-5 San Diego Chargers; the NC East, if the 6-5 at Bye Week Philadelphia Eagles see the Dallas Cowboys defeat the NC East’s 4-6 N.Y. Giants, causing a tie at first place; and, the NC North, if the 6-4 Detroit Lions lose to the NC South’s 2-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 6-4 Chicago Bears defeat the NC West’s 4-6 St. Louis Rams. Note that during Week 11, these three divisions were the divisions that underwent leading team flip-flops from Week 10. Meanwhile, turnabouts seemed to dominate at the back of the grid during Week 11, with the 4-6 Chargers replacing the 4-6 Oakland Raiders at last place within the AC West, and inside the AC North the 4-6 Cleveland Browns dropping from second place to fourth + last (Yikes!) while from that low position the 4-6 Pittsburgh Steelers rose to second behind the Bengals; and, within the NC East the 3-7 Washington Redskins dropped to fourth + last, allowing the 4-6 Giants to ascend to third place, while within the NC South the Atlanta Falcons dropped to last, moving the 2-8 Buc’s to third. So, across the board the NFL isn’t entirely emblematic of a status quo, it can shift and turn where least expected, Week 11 proof of that . . . // BRONCOS, CHIEFS--- TODAY at Kansas City, Kansas, the Denver Broncos are the main prototype for Spoilers, a work of the Devil, the NFL team from Hell, from the Broncos having whipped the Chiefs on Sunday, 27-17. Meanwhile, at Denver, Colorado, the Broncos are Warrior-Kings, God-like, the NFL franchise from Heaven. At 9-1, and occupying the AC West’s number one position and the NFL-entire’s number two slot behind the NC West’s 10-1 Seattle Seahawks, the Broncos are Super Bowl-headed easily unless the task is made harder, or erased, from the team losing most of six contests between this Sunday and December 29 (Weeks 12 through 16), most unlikely though neither of the six games is a win that the Broncos could accrue while thinking about Spring and Summer vacations; for instance, it’s the New England Patriots during Week 12, then the Chiefs again for Week 13, followed by games against the Tennessee Titans, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, and the Oakland Raiders. Recall that earlier in the season, the Broncos defense gave up 20 and 21 points respectively to the Chargers and the Raiders. Of course, the bouts versus the Patriots and the Chiefs will be the more crucial toward the Broncos maintaining division and conference supremacy, and Week 11’s Broncos vs. Chiefs game revealed some “tells” as to how this need can reach fulfillment. On a bright side for the Broncos, on Sunday its defense held the Chiefs to fewer than 20 points for the second time among 10 games played since NFL-2013 began, and the Broncos offense maintained a lead against the Chiefs within each quarter largely due to the improved “crashing through time and space” by the Broncos pass protection unit, which prevented the Chiefs pass rush from succeeding enough at disorienting the Broncos passing tactics that enabled drives for touchdowns achieved from rushes twice by RB Monte Ball and once by TE Julius Thomas. Of a remarkable contribution here were the Broncos WR’s Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and TE Thomas receiving for more than 300 yards collectively, much of this becoming the first down purchases that resulted in 30 minutes of ball possession and end zone occupation for the Broncos TD’s and field goals, one of the latter a 54 yard FG (kicker, Matt Patter). An argument can be made that because the Chiefs defense is probably the best in the NFL today, the Broncos offense against it on Sunday was among the better Broncos offense performances of the year, and this happened with Broncos QB Peyton Manning slowed some by harmed ankles. Manning once again threw for more than 300 yards, and he completed 24 of 40 passes. Against this, the Chiefs QB, Alex Smith, threw for almost 100 fewer yards than Manning had hurled, implying a weaker offense than that of the Broncos, further implying that the improved Broncos defense can keep the Chiefs offense “down and out” when the two teams meet again, December 1. Yes, the Broncos defense could be as tough and suppressing during Week 12 vs. the Patriots, as against the Chiefs offense on Sunday, but only if the Broncos pass rush can disrupt Patriots QB Tom Brady enough times and keep the football out of the hands of Brady’s select receivers/rushers more often than not, sure to be a harder task than interfering with the Chiefs offense. . . More about Broncos/Patriots comparisons, and Week 12 picks, within this Friday’s posting . . . //. . . NBA---RATHER quickly in this season, the NBA teams expected to be hot and leading their respective divisions have begun to be just that. The San Antonio Spurs are now atop the Western Conference West’s Southwest Division with nine wins over just one loss, and the Golden State Warriors are leading the WC Pacific, 8-2. The Miami Heat has moved atop the Eastern Conference Southeast at 7-3, and the Indiana Pacers are number one at EC Central, at 9-1. Not that surprises never occur when 10 or more of 82 season-games have gone by, to wit: season 2012/13’s 12tth Western Conference ranking Portland Trail Blazers are now leading the WC’s Northwest Division, at 9-2, and 2012/13’s ninth Eastern Conference ranking Philadelphia 76ers are number one, EC Atlantic, though at 5-7. Of all the leading NBA teams, however, only one has a stretch lead, the EC Central’s Pacers with three wins above the 6-2 Chicago Bulls. Except for the Trail Blazer’s two-game lead over the WC Northwest’s 7-3 Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Spurs two games above the WC Southwest’s 7-4 Houston Rockets, all other NBA division leading franchises are ahead by just one game, the Warriors being above the WC Pacific’s 7-3 Los Angeles Clippers, the EC Atlantic’s 76ers above the 4-7 Toronto Raptors, the EC Southeast’s Miami Heat over the 6-4 Atlanta Hawks. Surprisingly of poor starts (Yes, NBA 2013/14 is still in gestation-mode, with the possibility that upswings will occur rapidly and soon),are the WC Northwest’s Denver Nuggets being 4-6 and at fourth position, the WC Southwest’s Memphis Grizzlies being at 5-5 and at fourth place, plus the WC Pacific’s L.A. Lakers being at 5-7 and at fourth position, also the NC Atlantic’s Boston Celtics at 4-7 and holding at third, with the New York Knicks behind the Celtics at 3-6 and the 3-7 Brooklyn Nets back of the Knicks and at last place. To date, no NBA team is without a win, worst case being the WC Northwest’s 1-11 Utah Jazz. END/ml

Friday, November 15, 2013

NFL: WEEK 11, TURNING POINTS; BRONCOS TO FACE CHIEFS // NBA: A VIEW X 3 (Pacers, Nuggets, Nets).

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: WEEK 11, TURNING POINTS; BRONCOS TO FACE THE CHIEFS // NBA: A VIEW X 3 (Pacers, Nuggets, Nets). . . // . . . NFL---BEING the final set of games before a last lap of NFL-2013 commences (last five challenges of the year, Weeks 12 through 16), Week 11 is metaphorically do-or-die for those franchises positioned today to compete for post-season competition, therefore a chance to lead a conference and get to the Super Bowl, and those franchises that are eager to finish the season at .500 or higher, thus as a winning enterprise. Of course, the former includes the current NFL conference-division leading teams and some close runner-ups, most of these teams arguably playoff-slotted as of now, among these, the American Conference West’s undefeated 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs and the 8-1 Denver Broncos, the AC East’s 7-2 New England Patriots, AC North’s 6-3 Cincinnati Bengals, AC South’s 6-2 Indianapolis Colts, and the National Conference West’s 8-1 Seattle Seahawks, NC South’s 6-2 New Orleans Saints, possibly the NC East’s 5-4 Dallas Cowboys and the NC South’s 5-4 Green Bay Packers, maybe the NC North’s 5-3 Detroit Lions and NC South’s 5-3 Carolina Panthers. That’s 10 franchises for the weeks of play after Week 11, from which teams will select out as occupants for the Super Bowl raceways. Which of these 10 will be lining up as potential post-season candidates for a last run of games starting Week 12? There are three ways to look at this question: FIRST is to know that we can’t really answer the question for sure, because no-one really knows what the football gods will be up to this Sunday and Monday night or in the weeks to follow; SECOND, win/loss records do point to some degrees of likelihood that things can turn out a particular way; THIRD, the competition that the 10 teams will be facing during Week 11, and then during those last pivotal games, such speaks to the difficulties that will be encountered and that could freeze into walls going up, behind the walls the playoff candidates that will be gone prior to the regular season’s last minutes. For example, the Chiefs and the Broncos will be facing off on Sunday, then again on December 1 (Week 13), the outcome affecting both their conference and division leading positions significantly. Too, Monday night’s Patriots/Panthers game will probably be a Patriots win by no fewer than six points, but facing the Broncos during Week 12 could set the Patriots back. Still, the Patriots games after Week 12 will be against teams that they could crush easily, and so the Patriots finishing the season atop the AC East is likely. This condition is similar for the AC North’s Cincinnati Bengals, in that they have only one truly rough hurdle across the weeks ahead, versus the Colts during Week 14. And, except for this match-up with the Bengals, the Colts will be facing only teams that are at or below .500 for the remainder of the season, implying that its division leadership will maintain. The NC West’s Seahawks, this team has enough of a lead to remain division leader and numero uno within the NC-entire but the team could be slowed by a Week 13 match vs. the Saints. As for the Seahawks' Week 11 game vs. the NC North’s 2-7 Minnesota Vikings, the data suggests a big win for the Seahawks, it could be by as much as 24 over six. As for the Saints, it may be rough-going during Sunday’s face-off with the NC West’s second place team, the 6-2 San Francisco 49ers, then the Saints will face the Seahawks during Week 13 and the Panthers twice during Weeks 14 and Week 15. As to the closest match-ups starting Week 11, they could involve the NC East’s Cowboys, the NC North’s Packers and the Lions, in that the majority of their challenges from Week 11 on will be against teams of comparable win/loss records, e.g., in Bye this week but next the Cowboys will face the New York Giants, a game that could go either way. Week 11 will pit the N.Y. Giants against the Packers, also a game for which a winner is quite unpredictable. Moreover, Week 11 has the Lions up against the AC North’s 2-6 Pittsburgh Steelers, another game likely to be quite close, the outcome (our guess:) a tie until one or the other manages a final period field goal. So, from all of this a spotlight emerges on 18 of the NFL’s 32 franchises that are at or beneath .500, only three among these at .500 with a slightly better than marginal chance for rising upward and finishing the season as a winning football team, starting with Week 11---the AC West’s 4-4 San Diego Chargers, set for this Sunday vs. the AC East’s 4-4 Miami Dolphins (could go either way), and the NC West’s 4-4 Arizona Cardinals vs. the 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars, our take the Cardinals, by nine. . . BRONCOS, CHIEFS---Since NFL-2013 began, the Broncos have put up 371 points against opposing franchises, the Chiefs a lot less, 215. Also, the highest number of victory points achieved in a single game this year by the Broncos has been 52, against the Philadelphia Eagles, and highest from the Chiefs has been 28, versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, which would imply Broncos supremacy were it not that the number of points allowed by the Broncos defense to go to other teams this year has been 238, while from the Chiefs it’s been much fewer, 111, with the most given away by the Broncos defense in a single game being 48 (to the Eagles), and most allowed by the Chiefs has been just 17, to the Titans, again vs. the Cleveland Browns. Too, in no game played this season by the Broncos has the Broncos defense allowed fewer than 20 points to an opposing team. In three of its nine games played to date, the Chiefs have given away two, seven and seven respectively. But a fact favoring the Broncos is that of the nine games played by the Chiefs, all but one has been against a team at or below .500, while more of the Broncos wins have been against franchises of higher standings. From these numbers and vaule cited, we can conclude that a Broncos defense unable to keep at or below a 20 point giveaway will jeopardize those points gained by the Broncos offense led by QB Peyton Manning (Note that the higher point wins accrued by the Broncos this year have occurred within Weeks 1 through 5, and that the Broncos last win signaled possibility of offense decline, 28 vs. the now 4-4 San Diego Chargers 20, Week 10). From film of both top and low Broncos offense points scored this year, the Chiefs will know that its defense will need super reliance on the pass rush and on tight coverage of Manning’s receiver options, which advises that the Broncos offense will need equally tight and intense pass protection for QB Manning and especially for Broncos receivers maintaining free space between themselves and the football. This being so, the Broncos have put up 42 touchdowns this season, 33 from pass plays, nine from rushes. The Chiefs have delivered 15, nine from pass plays, seven out of rushes---this data suggests a Broncos points-gained advantage if the Chiefs defense isn’t in high crush mode, and if, of course, the Broncos defense can keep the Chiefs offense from scoring more than 20 points. Given that the Broncos defense has been more within the steady improvement window over the team’s last four competitions than otherwise (though not by much), and meanwhile that the Chiefs offense has scored more than 20 points in three of its last four games, a reasonable take on the Week 11 Broncos/Chiefs outcome is a result similar to that of the Broncos vs. Chargers game of Week 10, Broncos with as many as 28 points, the Chiefs 21, possibly 24. But---whatever the outcome, the rivalry will continue at Kansas City, Week 13, December 1, the result one or the other team being first or second within the NFL-entire, dependent upon what happens between now and then for current NFL number two team, the 8-1/.889 Seattle Seahawks . . . // . . . NBA---Three NBA teams have moved quickly to reflect those that are way up in the standings, those that are somewhere in the middle, and those that are at the back end of the grid. Surely at the top right now are the undefeated Eastern Conference Central Division’s 8-0 Indiana Pacers and the Western Conference Southwest Division’s 8-1 San Antonio Spurs, unexpectedly ahead of the EC Southeast’s now 5-3 Miami Heat and the WC Northwest’s 5-2 Oklahoma City Thunder. Middle of the pack, but at the low end of that category, are the suddenly gaining WC Northwest’s 3-4 Denver Nuggets, and reflective of the better back-enders are the EC Atlantic’s 2-5 Brooklyn Nets. What makes these franchises stand out now are possibilities that they will remain reflective of the element that they are currently a part of, and also that they will be at the front end of their respective elements, possibilities only if the Pacers and Spurs keep playing as they have, and if the Nuggets and the Nets improve steadily without vast leaps forward in the standings. In other words, it’s likely that, barring injuries, the Pacers and Spurs will be winning enough games to stay atop their divisions and as leading conference teams, and that the Nuggets will probably finish the 2013/14 season with 45 or more games (second or third within its division), and that the Nets will top off as being best among the bottom 12 NBA-2013/14 franchises. Predicating this collection of ideas (risky in that we are still in the early days of the NBA season) is that the Pacers can count heavily on its leading shooter, Paul George (around 24 ppg), he ‘s been a paragon of consistency and also a play catalyst for other starters and the Indiana bench that scores fairly high collectively, George also now fourth best scorer in the NBA directly behind the Heat’s LeBron James; and, while the Spurs Tim Duncan and Tony Parker have lost some speed and accuracy (neither is among the top 35 NBA scorers of 2013/14, to date), this team is still best in the NBA at keeping opposing teams from scoring a basket per minute or so wihtin consecutive games. The Nuggets? Only one Nuggets starter is among the top 15 scorers, guard Ty Lawson (21 ppg), significant in that every team now above .500 and either in first or second place of a division is a team with a player among the top 15 shooters, all with 20 or more ppg, but of more reason to envision the Nuggets as a top middle-of-the-pack franchise is the return of forward Wilson Chandler and that new head coach, Brian Shaw, has expanded the team’s teamwork-first priority with plays employing some high risk tactics, for instance, the long arc-ing pass to players in the paint and at the post, with reliance on Lawson first as playmaker, then as shooter. Too, whether planned or not, in recent games there seems to have been repeated emphasis on height but on height above the man under the basket, that is, where the offense is of concern the ball being set higher than the tallest Nuggets player available for teh shot, e.g., Lawson throwing the ball high to Chandler, Chandler hefting it higher to and above forward Kenneth Faried (already a seven-footer), Faried jumping and netting the ball vertically. . . As to the Nets, going from what’s been seen of the team’s new head coach, Jason Kidd, when he was a guard for the old Nets, the Dallas Mavericks and the New York Knicks over a successful player career, it could be that he’s being underestimated in his first days on the job. Knowing whom to delegate floor power to, and when, such takes a lot games (wins and losses both). However, with Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson aboard, it’s likely that strategy, tactics and style will be ironed out and pulsing well enough for the Nets to be leading that back end of the grid if not climbing out of that category fully and clean just before All Star week. END/ml