NFL: WEEK 12---OUTLOOK; BRONCOS, PATRIOTS, MANNING & BRADY // NBA: GOOD STARTS, BAD STARTS; NUGGETS DEFEAT OF THE BULLS.

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: WEEK 12---OUTLOOK; BRONCOS, PATRIOTS, MANNING & BRADY // NBA: GOOD STARTS, BAD STARTS; NUGGETS DEFEAT OF THE BULLS . . . // . . . NFL---AN “inner circle” of Brahmins is entering Week 12, those NFL-2013 franchises that got there from many more wins than losses since the NFL season began on September 5. Each of these teams has the glow of playoff candidacy. Ahead of this pack are the 10-1 National Conference West’s Seattle Seahawks, close to their heels the American Conference West’s 9-1 Denver Broncos and 9-1 Kansas City Chiefs, both tied at first place re. number of wins/losses. Then comes the NC South’s 9-2 New Orleans Saints, followed by the AC East’s 7-2 New England Patriots, AC South’s 7-3 Indianapolis Colts and the AC North’s 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals. These six teams + 1 are also division leading franchises. The remaining division leaders, the NC East’s 6-5 Philadelphia Eagles and the NC North’s 6-4 Detroit Lions, they are “outer circle” in that they can easily lose their number one slots to teams they are now tied with or that are close behind them, to wit: the NC East’s 5-5 Dallas Cowboys and the NC North’s 6-4 Chicago Bears. So, how will these teams fare during Week 12? Three of them can lay back, that is, they are in Bye Week, the Seahawks, Bengals and the Eagles, while the likelihood of two others of the “inner circle” winning again has the positive touch, i.e., the Chiefs will probably defeat the 4-6 San Diego Chargers, and the Colts the NC West’s 6-4 Arizona Cardinals. Note that on Thursday, the New Orleans Saints added a win from the now 2-9 Atlanta Falcons . . . BRONCOS, PATRIOTS---THE closest to Week 12 uncertainty is Sunday’s Broncos/Patriots match-up. If the 9-1 Broncos lose to the 7-2 Patriots and the 9-1 Chiefs beat the 4-6 Chargers, then the Broncos will slip back to AC West’s second position. If the Patriots lose, and the AC East’s now 5-5 New York Jets defeat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, and the NC East’s currently 5-5 Miami Dolphins beat the NC South’s Carolina Panthers, the Patriots will then see their division lead shrink to one game up. Presently, stats put the two teams in a game that will be absent of blowout figures during any of the four quarters; for example, since Week 1 the Broncos have accumulated 371 points for nine games played consecutively against teams roughly equivalent to those that the Patriots have faced (excluding Week 11’s 27 points taken by the Broncos from the Chiefs), while the Patriots totaled 234 from its nine games. This is a large margin that would favor the Broncos for a Week 12 win were it not that the Denver defense has given away 255 points Weeks 1 through 11, the Patriots dropping much fewer than that in all of its games to date, 174. That the Broncos defense has allowed 20 or more points in eight of the nine games, and more than 30 in two of them (Worst being 48 points to the NC East’s 5-5 Dallas Cowboys), such implies rough going for Denver on Sunday, in that the Broncos defense will be up against a most credible offense, but not a PERFECTO,“ for the Patriots QB Tom Brady machine hasn’t been what it once was during the current season. Pass rush enhancement on the part of the Broncos pass rush unit could hold this offense back, as could speedier and more savvy performances by the Broncos CB’s. Yes, the Broncos QB Peyton Manning offense could be the difference for Denver, offsetting points lost by the Broncos defense, but only if the Manning machine clicks and there’s that Manning-WR and RB connectivity that enabled the many first downs and crushes from the end zone within games this year versus the Ravens, Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and the Redskins, all Broncos wins of 40 or more points accrued. Note that the Broncos receivers have been credited this year with 34 touchdowns, the Patriots receivers with but 14 TD’s; and, the Broncos rushing has accrued 13 TD’s, the Patriots rushers, 11. Were Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno available for each of the nine Broncos games cited herein, the Broncos rush-TD data would probably be much higher---Moreno has been credited with eight of the 13 Broncos rush-TD’s. Note, too, that the receiver TD’s were largely the result of QB Manning’s 69.9 percentage pass completion rate. Patriots QB Brady’s pass completion rate lists much lower than Manning’s this season---58.7. Our take for Sunday, Broncos by seven, maybe 10. . . // . . . NBA---First to reach double digit wins? The Eastern Conference Central’s 10-1 Indiana Pacers, the Western Conference Southwest’s 10-1 San Antonio Spurs and the WC Northwest’s 10-2 Portland Trail Blazers. Close behind? That’s the EC Southeast’s 9-3 Miami Heat, WC Northwest’s 8-3 Oklahoma City Thunder, WC Southwest’s 8-4 Dallas Mavericks, WC Pacific’s 8-4 Golden State Warriors, and the WC Pacific’s 8-5 Los Angeles Clippers. Still, 15 of the 30 NBA teams are under .500, but rising toward and close to .500 are the 5-6/.455 Denver Nuggets after beating the 6-4 Chicago Bulls last night, 97-87, and the WC Pacific’s 5-6 Phoenix Suns. An irony and a surprise here is that the 5-7/.417 Toronto Raptors are leading the EC’s Atlantic Division. Far back of the grid, that’s the 1-12 Utah Jazz, and the 2-8 Milwaukee Bucks. Off to poor starts within the EC relative to last year’s stats and this year’s expectations, are the EC Atlantic’s 4-9 Boston Celtics, and the EC Atlantic’s 3-8 New York Knicks and 3-8 Brooklyn Nets, while inside the WC that distinction appears to belong to the WC Pacific’s 5-7 L.A. Lakers. . . NUGGETS, BULLS. That guard Ty Lawson can re-set from scoring points out of a fast break himself, to being a playmaker for others to shoot as well as he, this is crucial for any team betting on offense speed and strategic evasions for a select player to have the surer shot, plus fast transition to a defense that can diminish the value of an opposing team’s height, wingspan and talent for minimum passing + critical path drives for the corkscrew layup or dunk, which sums up generally that which a good basketball team always pulls off. That the Nuggets proved capable of this last night versus a Chicago Bulls team reinforced by last year’s MVP Derrick Rose getting his mojo back and scoring 19 points, it suggests that the Nuggets will soon be hurdling the .500 mark, heading for another 50+ wins end-of-season finish and playoff entry. Seen explicitly was a Nuggets team relying more on the head coach Brian Shaw factor, that is, more on rehearsed plays, plan B efforts, ball sharing, a capable bench for employment of the same tactics (Second highest in points earned so far in NBA-2013/14), and speed-enhanced/power defense, than on the field improvisations of past seasons. END/ml