Friday, November 8, 2013

NFL: WEEK 10, EIGHT BRIDGES TO CROSS; DENVER BRONCOS, SAN DIEGO CHARGERS.

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner... // NFL: WEEK 10, EIGHT BRIDGES TO CROSS; BRONCOS, CHARGERS...// NFL---WEEK 10 of NFL-2013 has delayed one of the league’s eight division leading teams from being first to achieve double-digit wins. That’s the American Conference West’s still undefeated 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs, which will be at Bye Week until Sunday, November 17, while another franchise, the current 8-1 National Conference West’s 8-1 Seattle Seahawks, could surpass a season’s halfway mark of eight wins on Sunday, therefore staying second best in the league behind the Chiefs and also first within the NFL’s National Conference, guaranteeing a .500 percentage should the Seahawks lose every one of its games Week 11 through Week 16. Also, Week 10 is Bye Week for the American Conference East’s first place now 7-2 New England Patriots, to which there won’t be a change upward in that the AC East's second place 5-4 N.Y. Jets are also in Bye Week. Meanwhile, during Week 10, the NFL’s remaining five division leading teams could gain leads of two or more wins over their respective second place franchises---AC North’s 6-2 Cincinnati Bengals, AC South’s 6-2 Indianapolis Colts, the NC East’s 5-4 Dallas Cowboys, the NC North’s 5-2 Green Bay Packers, the NC South’s 6-2 New Orleans Saints. But could all this happen easily for the leading teams that will be active during Week 10? Let’s review---SEAHAWKS: This team will be facing the NC South’s fourth place 2-6 Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, the win/loss records of each suggesting a Seahawks win. However, the Falcons haven’t failed to leave a game this year without putting up double-digit points, and only one of its losses has been a blowout, the team’s 32-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers, Week 9. Note that against top team, the AC East’s N.E. Patriots, during Week 4, the Falcons lost by seven points, 30-23. Our guess is that the Falcons will make the afternoon difficult for the Seahawks, yet will probably lose by a TD . . . BENGALS: This AC North franchise knows that a loss on Sunday to the same division’s Baltimore Ravens, now 3-5, will mean recovery for a Ravens shot at the post-season, and that a Bengals versus Baltimore win could keep the 4-5 Cleveland Browns in second place and ahead of the Ravens, aided by the Browns also being at Bye during Week 10. A proper take, then, is Bengals ahead at endgame on Sunday by only three . . . COLTS: Win/loss records say that the Colts will smother the St. Louis Rams during Week 10. The Rams lost three in a row (Weeks 2 through 5) to teams of less power and skill, and three in a row Weeks 7 through 9, giving up 72 points and accruing only 45 (strangely, it’s best fight being a loss to the Seahawks during Week 8, 14-9). . . COWBOYS: Up against the Saints on Sunday, the Cowboys could see trouble, lose and so enter Week 11 tied with the now NC East’s 4-5 Philadelphia Eagles, instead of staying at first place. This year, the Saints losses have totaled only 56 points, and were of games within which the Saints put up 27 and 20 points respectively. Even so, the Cowboys losses have also been double-digit each, and versus the 7-1 Denver Broncos the Cowboys managed to put up 48 points, losing by only three. A sensible pick is Cowboys losing by seven. . . PACKERS: Having lost to the Chicago Bears on Thursday night, the Packers, the Detroit Lions and the Bears are now tied at first place, NC North, each at 5-3. Surely this will change from Sunday’s Lions versus Bears match. A fair guess is that either can win but probably by no more than six. . . // . . . DENVER BRONCOS, SAN DIEGO CHARGERS---FROM games played during Weeks 1 through 8 (including Bye Week), the Broncos gave up 197 points to opposing teams, while during the same period the Chargers gave up fewer points to opponents, 147. Yet the Broncos are today 7-1, the Chargers, 4-4. Within this, the Chargers dropped only nine points to the Indianapolis Colts, a division leading franchise (Week 6). During Week 7, the Broncos lost to the Colts, 39-33. Implied here is that a Chargers defense can keep a lid on the Broncos QB Peyton Manning-led offense, maybe preventing the Broncos offense from scoring as many or more points than given away to the Chargers by the Broncos defense. However, for the seven games cited here, the Chargers offense provided a total of 168 points while the Broncos offense delivered 298 points for the same number of challenges, suggesting multiple Broncos touchdowns vs. the Chargers, enough to neutralize whatever is given away by the Broncos defense. Too, Chargers QB Phillip Rivers pass completion total is only 10 fewer than that accrued Broncos QB Manning, and of fewer attempts than Manning’s. If Rivers could maintain this but with completions resulting in a high rate of TD’s, the Chargers could prevent a humiliating loss to the Broncos. Six of Rivers receivers can boast of only 17 TD’s this season, while six of Manning’s receivers have accumulated 29 TD’s. As for rushing, the Chargers rushes have translated into only three TD’s to date; the Broncos rushes, 11 TD’s. It seems, then, that on Sunday the Broncos offense will empower a Broncos win, but without a runaway victory---an informed pick is Broncos 30, Chargers 24. END/ml

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