NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII---"Looking Ahead, the Outcome Imagined."

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII---“Looking Ahead, the Outcome Imagined.” . . . // NFL ---TWO days from now, the 15-3 Denver Broncos and the 15-3 Seattle Seahawks will meet to determine which of the two deserves Super Bowl XLVIII’s NFL championship trophy, a dream match-up in that the NFL’s smartest and best scoring offense will be up against the NFL’s hardest defense to penetrate. Were Olympics judges doing the measuring, we’d have a 10 up against a 10. Both teams finished NFL-2013 regulation at the top of their respective conferences prior to NFL 2013’s post-season conference championship games, commencement of which resulted in the Broncos defeating the New England Patriots and the Seahawks taking down the San Francisco 49ers. . . SO, “INTO THE WOODS WE GO!” It’s the morning after, and Seahawks fans are sulking. The Broncos won Super Bowl XLVIII. Here’s why: . . . OFFENSE---(1) DUE largely to consistent and effective pass protection, the Broncos offense obtained more than 35 ball possession minutes (similar to that gained when facing the N.E. Patriots in January), during which pass completions and rushes enabled a large number of first downs and end zone arrivals, followed by third and fourth down success inside the 10, result: four TD’s atop three field goals by endgame. . . Instead of always attempting to push back the Seahawks fast and powerful pass rush unit and other defenders, the Broncos offense went for E & E, “Escape & Evasion,” landing open and taking the football forward. (Say, didn’t this work versus the Patriots, with Manning and his preferred receivers employing “the element of surprise” expertly, observers noting unexpected maneuvers keeping the opposing defense off-guard, Broncos yardage then gained?). . . 2) Broncos QB Peyton Manning threw for more than 420 yards, his pass completion rate greater than 71 percent, enhanced by Broncos pass receivers remaining in line-of-sight trajectory with their sudden turnabouts and horizontal or angled crossings faster and with greater accuracy for the catch than in any game since September, 2013 (Vs. the Patriots two weeks ago, Manning’s pass completion rate was 72 percent). . . 3) Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno and TE Monte Ball averaged more than 5.6 yards per rush, and rushed for more than 90 yards and a TD each. . . DEFENSE --- 1) The Broncos defense held the Seahawks to zero in the first quarter and to less than 20 points by endgame, primarily from the Broncos pass rush forcing Seahawks QB Russell Wilson into having to dump preferred pass and run options for least desired choices, namely Seahawks straight downfield rushes that couldn’t secure enough yards for first downs and landings on Broncos territory, resulting in “punt necessity” and expansion of ball possession minutes for the Broncos offense. . . (2) The Broncos secondary blocked more than 90 percent of passes thrown by Seahawks QB, Russell Wilson, whenever the Seahawks offense was forward of the Broncos 40. . . Glass half-empty Broncos fans had worried about the fact that the Broncos defense had allowed an average of 26 points to opposing teams across NFL-2013‘s regular season, but glass half-full fans were correct by banking on the fact that in the Broncos last four games the team’s much-improved defense allowed only an average of 15 points to opponents. . . NOW---Set the above aside . . . Here’s why the Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday: OFFENSE --- (1) Seahawks QB Russell Wilson delivered confusion by operating conservatively and then by taking risks, exploiting the rush favorably only when it seemed beforehand to be a sure thing, that is, when his readings spotted pathways for attainment of even a four yard gain. Yet Wilson passed to the side when least expected, succeeding for first downs and eventual end zone arrivals. But rather than risk TD-attempt failure during third and fourth downs inside the 10, Wilson went for the field goal three times. . . (2) During the regular NFL-2013 season, Wilson had better results passing long or handing the ball off for the deep rush, but he hadn’t had the smarter results that he achieved during Super Bowl XLVIII. Viewers noted that the Seahawks slow ground game robbed the Broncos offense of optimum holds on ball possession minutes, which helped to keep the Broncos offense from accumulating more points than that which the Broncos defense gave away in the first three quarters. . . (3) The Seahawks pass protection unit succeeded at blocking the Broncos pass rush enough times for Seahawks QB Wilson to keep his pass completion rate above 62 percent, and Broncos defense weaknesses enabled Wilson to rush for his own TD. . . Pre-game focus on other than Wilson masked that last year he tied Manning's eons-ago NFL record for most TD’s thrown or rushed by a rookie QB . . . DEFENSE --- Speed and power of the Seahawks defense forced Broncos QB Manning to rely on too many short off to-the-side throws and meager straight-ahead rushes, limiting first down gains and preventing the Broncos offense from scoring enough points to offset the more than 30 points that were allowed the Seahawks offense by the Broncos defense. . . /// BACK TO THE PRESENT---“THE MANNING FACTOR.” CAN Manning be stopped? During the NFL-2013 regular season, assaults that Manning led accrued more than 5,400 yards and more than 600 points, and Manning completed 55 TD-throws during the season. Manning doesn’t go afield with a playbook. He goes with multiple playbooks; he knows attack football the way that Nobel winners in science know physics. Manning has proved that speed of decision-making and a skilled arm can make up for physical leg-speed that’s lost with age. Interfering with Manning’s effectiveness by speeding up a pass rush and keeping him from getting rid of the football effectively, is the only tactic available and diffiuclt to perform. During NFL-2013, Manning experienced only 18 sacks, averaging just one per game (Remember Ali’s, “Move like a butterfly, sting like a bee”---in this sense, Manning’s a superb trickster. Besides, Manning’s blessed with one of the NFL’s best pass protection units). . . RECEIVER OVER-MATCH --- THE Seahawks downfield defenders Richard Sherman, Walter Thurmond III and Byron Maxwell are definitely among the best in the NFL, but the three aren’t enough of a match “numerically” compared with the number of skilled players comprising Manning’s receiver corps---Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Andre Caldwell. The best that can be done by the Seahawks here is Football-101, sensing Manning’s sudden choice of receiver for pass connectivity and being in position to block the pass or hold the receiver back from additional yardage after a catch . . . DEFENSE WITHIN THE OFFENSE---IT isn’t just RB Knowshon Moreno or TE Monte Ball carving out space so that either could rush, then leap over, through or around a seemingly impenetrable defense. These Broncos ball runners gain lead-off support from tackles and blocks for those spaces and yardage gained (Again, Football-101). Enabling the Seahawks defense to stop Moreno and Ball from having space for the successful rush will require Seahawks defenders to shift instantly from the pass rush that the Seahawks have preferred to use in two waves against QB’s in the pocket, which could free Moreno and Ball for a Manning hand-off or short throw (That’s when Manning can smile and shout, “Checkmate”). . . /// OUTCOME---UNLESS there are flukes, the unexpected, e.g., a fumble enabling a Seahawks cornerback to run 40 or more yards for a TD, or the temperature at MetLife Stadium drops to degrees where Manning’s throwing power diminishes considerably, or there are injuries to Manning, to key Broncos WR’s and RB’s, the Denver franchise will likely win Super Bowl XLVIII, final: Broncos ahead by seven, maybe 10. END/ml

NFL: SUPER BOWL I THROUGH XLVIII--"LOOKING BACK" // NBA: NO TEAM UNBEATABLE, NONE WITHOUT COMEBACK CAPACITY

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner... // NFL: SUPER BOWL I THROUGH XLVIII--“LOOKING BACK.” NBA: NO TEAM UNBEATABLE, NONE WITHOUT COMEBACK CAPACITY... // NFL---WE are approaching another Super Bowl, the 48th since 1967, when the Green Bay Packers defeated Kansas City, 35-10, and each winning player received $7,500. The Packers won in 1968, too, becoming the first NFL team to achieve a Super Bowl victory two years straight. Since then, six other NFL franchises have purchased that distinction, the Miami Dolphins (1973/74), Pittsburgh Steelers (1975/76), San Francisco 49ers (1989/90), Dallas Cowboys (1993/94), Denver Broncos (1998/99) and the New England Patriots (2004/5). The Steelers won back-to-back again (1979/80). But the team with the most consecutive appearances at the Super Bowl, that’s the Buffalo Bills, arriving as conference champion four years in a row, 1991 through 1994, losing to the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and twice to the Cowboys (the Bills have never won the Super Bowl trophy)... Of the teams that have won two Super Bowl victories in a row, the Broncos have obtained six Super Bowl appearances, winning twice, 31-24 vs. the Packers and 34-19 against the Atlanta Falcons. Next week will be the Broncos seventh Super Bowl showing. The opposing Super Bowl XLVIII team on February 2, 2014, at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium, will be the Seattle Seahawks, a team that’s been to the big event only once, losing to the Steelers, 21-10 (2006). The Steelers have won the Super Bowl more times than any other NFL franchise, six, with the team’s win vs. the Seahawks being the last of seven Super Bowl berths obtained by the Steelers, which lost to the Packers at Super Bowl XLV (2011). The second most Super Bowl wins belong to two franchises, the Cowboys and the 49ers, five wins each. Except for seven of the 47 Super Bowl winners since 1967 (N.Y. Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears), all other winners have taken home the championship trophy more than once, though, on average, just twice. Noteworthy, then, is “Diversity” within the NFL; there are no NFL dynasty runs such as that seen in baseball, e.g., the N.Y. Yankees dominating the World Series year after year in the last century, the Super Bowl fairness being substantiated by the fact that since year 2000 eight different teams have been Super Bowl victors, with four of their opposing teams never having been to the Super Bowl before, the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, the Arizona Cardinals. Too, nearness to “competition equality” has been a strong Super Bowl feature, no Super Bowl competing team ever losing from not having scored a point, the lowest score among all Super Bowl losing teams being three points, the Dolphins falling to the Cowboys, 24-3 (1972). In only eight of the 47 Super Bowl events held since 1967 have losing teams failed to score 10 or more points, and since year 2000 only one losing team scored under 10---the N.Y. Giants, losing to the Baltimore Ravens, 23-7. In that same time frame, five losing franchises scored 20 and more points each, four of which lost by fewer than 10. Also, of all Super Bowl victories to date, just two have been with more than 40 points, the highest being the 49ers defeat of the Broncos, 55-10 (1990). . . That $7,500 for each Super Bowl winning player in 1967, it’s now more than $70,000 per. . . // NBA: IT’s never ordained, not a pre-set venture, never programmed---a basketball game is won or lost from how a team reacts in the moment to existing situations, and the best among the 30 NBA teams can drop a game to a team that’s been barely above .500 because that winning team played brilliantly while the losing higher ranked franchise also fought smart and skillfully. On the night of January 25, the Western Conference Northwest Division’s third place franchise, the Denver Nuggets, they defeated NBA high-ranked Eastern Conference and EC Central Division leading team, the Indiana Pacers, 109-96, from an exceptionally wide array of basketball tactics. The Nuggets were superb at shooting in the paint and outside, at free throws, assists, blocks, rebounds, passing, at the defense variants, which led to prevention of the Pacers remaining the NBA’s top team in current standings, now the domain of the West’s Northwest Division lading franchise, the 36-10 Oklahoma City Thunder, this team having lifted in the standings from wins hefted by the high scoring Kevin Durant (He put up 41 points last night versus the East’s Southeast 23-21 Atlanta Hawks. The Pacers are second best in the league today at 34-9, but with a 12 game lead over its division second place team, the 22-22 Chicago Bulls, though league wide the West’s Southwest Division leading team, the San Antonio Spurs, are at the Pacers heels, 33-11. On January 9, the Nuggets defeated the league’s now number one team and its division leader, the Thunder, 101-88, and in a pre-season match the Nuggets beat the Spurs, 98-94. Of seven straight Nuggets wins during the current season, the Nuggets defeated five franchises that were then and now above .500 and in second or third positions within their respective divisions. But---the Nuggets had to endure an eight game losing streak during December, forcing them to seek comeback mode, and from subsequent losses they have attained a sort of Yo-Yo demeanor. They could be back on a roll now, having beaten the Sacramento Kings on Sunday and they have a better than slight chance of defeating the East’s Southeast 19-27 Charlotte Bobcats this Wednesday. Elsewhere in the league, the 17-27 New York Knicks are rising, they’ve gone from last place within the East’s Atlantic Division to third position and six games behind first place team, the 23-21 Toronto Raptors, and three back of second place team, the 20-23 Brooklyn Nets, with Knicks forward, Carmelo Anthony, recently scoring more than 60 points in a single game. More comebacks before the All Star break are possible, in that only two of the NBA’s six division leading franchises have leads substantial enough to hold their top positions, the Pacers and the East’s Southeast 32-12 Miami Heat being nine games ahead of the Hawks. League leading franchise, the West’s Northwest Thunder, they have only a three game lead over their division’s second place team, the 33-12 Portland Trail Blazers. Still worst within the entire NBA, and the only team without double-digit wins, that’s the East’s Central Division 8-36 Milwaukee Bucks, 26 games behind the Pacers (Ugh!). END/ml

NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII, STATS & the Unexpected Turn // NBA: "Standings, Rookie Head Coaches; Nuggets, Pacers"

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII, “STATS & the Unexpected Turn” // NBA: “Standings, Rookie Coaches; Nuggets, Pacers.” . . . // NFL---NOTHING dumps on, makes a mockery of and erases a data-based prediction more than the “We just couldn’t see it coming” factor, that rare event, for example, the fumble after a fourth Q two-minute warning that enables the NFL’s weakest and slowest cornerback to make the pick and run eighty-four yards for the win. We’ve heard the TV or radio commentator shout, “Never before has that kicker failed to complete a field goal from under thirty yards---the underdog has taken it home!” Then there’s “the human factor,” QB so-and-so has a cold,” “LB Jones twisted his ankle in the first Q.” Plain truth, anything can happen in sports. Of course, that which prepares a football team for reducing the possibility of a fumble and that 84 yard run and a missed FG is team competence, which can be measured, it’s decipherable, enabling a sound prediction, signaling what the likely outcome of a future game can be. Welcome, STATS! They give fans an idea of which team could prevail over another, though there’s no guarantee of this, for the “We just couldn’t see it coming” factor is always nearby. So, what is it that leans toward the Broncos or Seahawks winning Super Bowl XLVIII? Overall, there’s a clear indication from the total number of points accumulated and also of points given away by both franchises during NFL-2013, that the year’s best offense will be facing the year’s best defense. If the Broncos defense can keep an opposing team from gaining more than 20 points into a fourth Q, and if the Seahawks pass protection unit can allow the Seahawks QB, Russell Wilson, the time and space for deep pass completions and two TD’s, well, a close game can occur, the sort that finishes in a tie and requires OT to find a winner, where the winning team might have it by no more than three. But---the Broncos three 2013 regular season losses saw 39, 34 and 27 points given away respectively to opposing teams. Those were numbers that Manning’s efficient drives couldn’t offset. Too, the Broncos weakest 2013 wins were games where the Broncos defense returned the football to Manning for fewer ball possession minutes than in stronger wins. Against the Patriots on Sunday, only two of Manning’s drives failed to produce a TD or FG. A strong Manning suit re. the drive is his seeking and finding closure economically, achieving points from least number of plays required, which metaphorically is a steep hill to climb when the Broncos defense allows 27 or more points. Therefore, if the Seahawks offense fails to put up 27 or more points, and its defense cannot confuse and neutralize Manning’s pass protection and Manning’s receiver corps just enough to keep the Broncos from offsetting the loss of 27 or more points, it’s unlikely that the Seahawks will leave New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium this February carrying the Lombardi trophy. This said, the Broncos defense has shown remarkable improvement in the team’s last several games, allowing 13, 14 and 16 points respectively. And, in six Broncos victories of 2013, the Manning-led offense put up 40 and more points; in three of these games more than 50 points, while the Seahawks can claim only two 2013 wins carrying more than 40 points. Data accrued by Broncos and Seahawks receivers + rushers also sheds light on a likely Super Bowl XLVIII outcome, e.g., Broncos receivers have accumulated 55 TD’s during 2013, the Seahawks a lot less, 27. But the Broncos rushers had a total of 16 TD’s, the Seahawks, 14, a closer comparison. Tricky data here is that while the Seahawks were able to rush for more yardage than the Broncos could during NFL-2013, 2,188 yards vs. the Broncos 1,873, the two additional TD’s gained in less time by the Broncos reflects greater rushing efficiency, a superior ability for making the rush count. Furthermore, the Broncos were able to mix passing and running games for a total of 435 first downs during NFL-2013, leveraged for 71 TD’s, while the Seahawks had much fewer, 307 first downs, for 41 TD’s. Comparing QB’s, Seahawks QB Wilson is no slouch, his pass completion rate isn’t far behind Manning’s, 63.1 percent vs. Manning’s 68.3 percent. In sum, the Broncos have an edge, “Unless. . .” . . . // NBA---OF the 30 NBA franchises, nine started NBA-2013/14 with rookie head coaches. Midway into the season, not one of the nine is honchoing a division leading team, and only two are in charge of second position teams, the Eastern Conference/Southeast Division’s 22-19 Atlanta Hawks head coach, Mike Buddenholzer, and Jason Kidd, HC, Eastern Conference/Atlantic Division’s 18-22 Brooklyn Nets. The remaining rookie HC’s are bossing teams that are low in the standings, only one of them above. 500, the Western Conference/Pacific Division’s third place team, the 24-17/.585 Phoenix Suns, led by Jeff Hornacek. The HC now leading a team that is at .500, that’s Dave Joerger, of the West’s Southeast fourth place franchise, the 20-20 Memphis Grizzlies, one of two WC teams led by rookie HC’s that under predecessors finished the previous NBA season in the conference’s top eight franchises, the other being the now WC/Northwest third place team, the 20-21 Denver Nuggets, led by first time HC, Brian Shaw, previous HC, George Karl. Current HC’s of fourth place teams are HC Brad Stevens, of the East/Atlantic’s 15-29 Boston Celtics, and HC Steve Clifford, of the EC/Southeast 19-25 Charlotte Bobcats. Today’s last place rookie HC-led teams are the WC/Pacific’s Sacramento Kings (HC, Mike Malone), and the EC/Atlantic’s 14-28 Philadelphia 76ers (HC, Brett Brown). Were all of these teams strong playoff candidates during NBA 2012/13, there would be a credible argument suggesting dismissal of the “new blood” concept, but most of the nine teams have been middle of the grid and so a status quo with regard to win/loss records has maintained, leaning toward belief that with more experience the rookie HC will lift his team in the standings. Helping to corroborate this is that five of the six division leading teams today are led by experienced head coaches, the two best in the league by the more experienced of the five HC’s . . . NUGGETS, PACERS---THE only division leading franchises that the 20-21 Denver Nuggets haven’t lost a game to this season are the Eastern Conference/Atlantic Division’s 21-20 Toronto Raptors, the leading team with the poorest record among the six division number ones, and the EC/Central’s 33-8 Indiana Pacers, because the Nuggets and the Pacers haven’t met yet and they will tomorrow night. Presently, the Pacers are leading all of the NBA and they have the deepest lead over a second place franchise, the 21-20 Chicago Bulls. But softening and narrowing the difference between the Nuggets and the Pacers is that though the Nuggets have lost to first place team within their division, the 33-10 Oklahoma City Thunder, the Nuggets also defeated the Thunder on January 9, 2014, 101-88. The Thunder has the same number of wins as the Pacers, 33. Also, the Nuggets loss to the entire NBA’s current second best franchise, the 32-10 San Antonio Spurs, was by only two points, 90-88, and the Nuggets loss to the fourth best franchise in the league, the EC/Southwest leading franchise, the 31-12 Miami Heat, was just by three points, 97-94. There is evidence, then, that the Nuggets can prevail vs. the Pacers. END/ml.

NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII, "STATS & the Unexpected Turn" // NBA: "Standings, Rookie Head Coaches;" "Nuggets, Pacers"

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII, “STATS & the Unexpected Turn” // NBA: “Standings, Rookie Head Coaches; Nuggets, Pacers.” . . . // . . NFL---NOTHING dumps on, makes a mockery of and erases a data-based prediction more than the “We just couldn’t see it coming” factor, that rare event, for example, the fumble after a fourth Q two-minute warning that enables the NFL’s weakest and slowest cornerback to make the pick and run eighty-four yards for the win. We’ve heard the TV or radio commentator shout, “Never before has that kicker failed to complete a field goal from under thirty yards---the underdog has taken it home!” Then there’s “the human factor,” QB so-and-so has a cold,” “LB Jones twisted his ankle in the first Q.” Plain truth, anything can happen in sports. Of course, that which prepares a football team for reducing the possibility of a fumble and that 84 yard run and a missed FG is team competence, which can be measured, it’s decipherable, enabling a sound prediction, signaling what the likely outcome of a future game can be. Welcome, STATS! They give fans an idea of which team could prevail over another, though there’s no guarantee of this, for the “We just couldn’t see it coming” factor is always nearby. So, what is it that leans toward the Broncos or Seahawks winning Super Bowl XLVIII? Overall, there’s a clear indication from the total number of points accumulated and also of points given away by both franchises during NFL-2013, that the year’s best offense will be facing the year’s best defense. If the Broncos defense can keep an opposing team from gaining more than 20 points into a fourth Q, and if the Seahawks pass protection unit can allow the Seahawks QB, Russell Wilson, the time and space for deep pass completions and two TD’s, well, a close game can occur, the sort that finishes in a tie and requires OT to find a winner, where the winning team might have it by no more than three. But---the Broncos three 2013 regular season losses saw 39, 34 and 27 points given away respectively to opposing teams. Those were numbers that Manning’s efficient drives couldn’t offset. Too, the Broncos weakest 2013 wins were games where the Broncos defense returned the football to Manning for fewer ball possession minutes than in stronger wins. Against the Patriots on Sunday, only two of Manning’s drives failed to produce a TD or FG. A strong Manning suit re. the drive is his seeking and finding closure economically, achieving points from least number of plays required, which metaphorically is a steep hill to climb when the Broncos defense allows 27 or more points. Therefore, if the Seahawks offense fails to put up 27 or more points, and its defense cannot confuse and neutralize Manning’s pass protection and Manning’s receiver corps just enough to keep the Broncos from offsetting the loss of 27 or more points, it’s unlikely that the Seahawks will leave New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium this February carrying the Lombardi trophy. This said, the Broncos defense has shown remarkable improvement in the team’s last several games, allowing 13, 14 and 16 points respectively. And, in six Broncos victories of 2013, the Manning-led offense put up 40 and more points; in three of these games more than 50 points, while the Seahawks can claim only two 2013 wins carrying more than 40 points. Data accrued by Broncos and Seahawks receivers + rushers also sheds light on a likely Super Bowl XLVIII outcome, e.g., Broncos receivers have accumulated 55 TD’s during 2013, the Seahawks a lot less, 27. But the Broncos rushers had a total of 16 TD’s, the Seahawks, 14, a closer comparison. Tricky data here is that while the Seahawks were able to rush for more yardage than the Broncos could during NFL-2013, 2,188 yards vs. the Broncos 1,873, the two additional TD’s gained in less time by the Broncos reflects greater rushing efficiency, a superior ability for making the rush count. Furthermore, the Broncos were able to mix passing and running games for a total of 435 first downs during NFL-2013, leveraged for 71 TD’s, while the Seahawks had much fewer, 307 first downs, for 41 TD’s. Comparing QB’s, Seahawks QB Wilson is no slouch, his pass completion rate isn’t far behind Manning’s, 63.1 percent vs. Manning’s 68.3 percent. In sum, the Broncos have an edge, “Unless. . .” . . . // NBA---OF the 30 NBA franchises, nine started NBA-2013/14 with rookie head coaches. Midway into the season, not one of the nine is honchoing a division leading team, and only two are in charge of second position teams, the Eastern Conference/Southeast Division’s 22-19 Atlanta Hawks head coach, Mike Buddenholzer, and Jason Kidd, HC, Eastern Conference/Atlantic Division’s 18-22 Brooklyn Nets. The remaining rookie HC’s are bossing teams that are low in the standings, only one of them above. 500, the Western Conference/Pacific Division’s third place team, the 24-17/.585 Phoenix Suns, led by Jeff Hornacek. The HC now leading a team that is at .500, that’s Dave Joerger, of the West’s Southeast fourth place franchise, the 20-20 Memphis Grizzlies, one of two WC teams led by rookie HC’s that under predecessors finished the previous NBA season in the conference’s top eight franchises, the other being the now WC/Northwest third place team, the 20-21 Denver Nuggets, led by first time HC, Brian Shaw, previous HC, George Karl. Current HC’s of fourth place teams are HC Brad Stevens, of the East/Atlantic’s 15-29 Boston Celtics, and HC Steve Clifford, of the EC/Southeast 19-25 Charlotte Bobcats. Today’s last place rookie HC-led teams are the WC/Pacific’s Sacramento Kings (HC, Mike Malone), and the EC/Atlantic’s 14-28 Philadelphia 76ers (HC, Brett Brown). Were all of these teams strong playoff candidates during NBA 2012/13, there would be a credible argument suggesting dismissal of the “new blood” concept, but most of the nine teams have been middle of the grid and so a status quo with regard to win/loss records has maintained, leaning toward belief that with more experience the rookie HC will lift his team in the standings. Helping to corroborate this is that five of the six division leading teams today are led by experienced head coaches, the two best in the league by the more experienced of the five HC’s . . . NUGGETS, PACERS---THE only division leading franchises that the 20-21 Denver Nuggets haven’t lost a game to this season are the Eastern Conference/Atlantic Division’s 21-20 Toronto Raptors, the leading team with the poorest record among the six division number ones, and the EC/Central’s 33-8 Indiana Pacers, because the Nuggets and the Pacers haven’t met yet and they will tomorrow night. Presently, the Pacers are leading all of the NBA and they have the deepest lead over a second place franchise, the 21-20 Chicago Bulls. But softening and narrowing the difference between the Nuggets and the Pacers is that though the Nuggets have lost to first place team within their division, the 33-10 Oklahoma City Thunder, the Nuggets also defeated the Thunder on January 9, 2014, 101-88. The Thunder has the same number of wins as the Pacers, 33. Also, the Nuggets loss to the entire NBA’s current second best franchise, the 32-10 San Antonio Spurs, was by only two points, 90-88, and the Nuggets loss to the fourth best franchise in the league, the EC/Southwest leading franchise, the 31-12 Miami Heat, was just by three points, 97-94. There is evidence, then, that the Nuggets can prevail vs. the Pacers. END/ml.

NFL: And Now, "SUPER BOWL XLVIII"---Part One // NBA: Season Half Over

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: And Now, “SUPER BOWL XLVIII”—Part One // NBA: Season Half Over. . . // THE outcome of NFL-2013’s post-season has made sense, in that the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks are now the Super Bowl match-up, that is, the two deserved to be Super Bowl-afield from what each accomplished during the regular 2013 season, and not only from the wins crowning them respective conference leaders on Sunday. The Broncos and the Seahawks were leading the league when NFL-2013’s playoffs commenced and they had led their respective divisions and conferences throughout much of NFL-2013 regulation. There are only two questions now, “Which is best, the Broncos or the Seahawks?” And, “Could, and will the best team win on February 2, 2014?” Yes, one way to answer these questions is to add up number of points allowed by a team’s defense and also points gained by the team’s offense during the regular season and the playoffs, for example, the Broncos allowed more than 300 points to opposing teams in its 18 games, but its offense accrued more than 450 points during the same events, offsetting the damage. The Seahawks defense gave up less than 150 points in its 18 contests, while its offense gained fewer than 350 points from the 18 matches, signaling that at Super Bowl XLVIII the Seahawks might rely more heavily on defense tactics than its offense for pushing the balance of power in its favor, while the Broncos will be optimizing the many values of its better offense. The friction here can provide a very close game, maybe gridlock and OT. Is there another way to choose which among the two teams has the lead in what it takes to prevail? A proper argument is that the last six regular season games and the two played in the post-season probably reflect the current liabilities and strengths of the two teams more accurately than a look at all previous games played, and in those more recent games the Broncos defense began dropping fewer points and obtained more than 30 from opponents in all but one of the matches. Revealed is that in the six games, the Broncos defense, which had allowed 20 and more points to opponents in most of its regular season matches, showed more signs of improvement than had the Seahawks defense, for instance, though 16 points were dropped by the Broncos defense on Sunday against the New England Patriots, the Broncos defense had held the Patriots to but three points during the first three quarters of the game, while by endgame the Broncos offense, led by QB Peyton Manning, netted more yards than the Patriots could, 400 versus 277, and achieved more first downs, more touchdowns, more field goals, final score: 26-16. For every point lost by the Broncos defense, the Manning-led offense had put up close to two. The Seahawks points-gone/points-obtained record isn’t as wide a spread, e.g., the Seahawk’s Sunday win vs. the San Francisco 49ers, 23-17. This factor suggests a slight Broncos advantage even should its defense falter at Super Bowl XLVIII, until noted that in six of the Seahawks NFL-2013 games, its defense allowed 10 and fewer points per, and in three of those it allowed just 3, 3 and zero. Too, comparing offense performance data can advise which of the two offense squads can do the most within ball possession minutes, e.g., Manning’s receivers have caught for more than 5,600 yards since September 5, 2013, when NFL-2013 began, the Seahawks receivers for less than 4,000, and while the Broncos backs rushed for just under 2,000 yards and the Seahawks for more than 2,000, the Broncos demonstrated that “less can be more,” achieving more TD’s from their rushing tactics. As for the QB comparison, well, that’s looking at hornet and fly, lion and domestic cat, Manning having thrown for more than 6,000 yards and more than 60 TD’s during NFL-2013 and the playoffs, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson for less than 4,000 yards and around half the TD’s that Manning put up. If Manning has the pass protection that he had during the Broncos last four matches and his receivers are “on game” as they were vs. the Patriots on Sunday, the Broncos will have the edge at MetLife Stadium and could win Super Bowl XVLIII by seven, maybe 10, even if its defense allows as many as 20 points to the Seahawks. True, the Seahawks defense that spoiled matters for the 49ers and the New Orleans Saints during the 2013 playoffs is capable of undoing the Broncos pass protection unit and of interfering with the Broncos WR and RB crossovers and down-the-line smash-throughs, therefore the Seahawks defense can keep Manning-led drives from always getting to end-zone efficiency, but as for this being a constant, no way! Manning’s blockers have become, as a unit, best within the NFL, and WR’s Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and RB’s Knowshon Moreno and Monte Ball are far too canny and skillful to be outmaneuvered play after play. // . . . NBA---WE are about to see the halfway mark of another NBA season for most of the league’s 30 teams, 41 games gone, 41 to go, and three NBA franchises that began atop their respective divisions are still there---the West’s Pacific Division 29-14 L.A. Clippers, the East’s Southeast 29-12 Miami Heat and the East’s Central 32-7 Indiana Pacers, while two franchises that began the season as division leaders have fallen steeply, the West’s Northwest 19-21 Minnesota Timberwolves and the East’s Atlantic 13-28 Philadelphia 76ers, fourth and last place teams today. The 28-15 Houston Rockets, which led the West’s Southwest Division in early November, they are second behind the 32-9 San Antonio Spurs. Of the six franchises that lost consecutive games in early November and held last place within their divisions at that time, only two are still at the very bottom---the West’s Northwest 14-28 Utah Jazz and the West’s Pacific 14-25 Sacramento Kings. Also, of the West’s top five franchises of the previous regular season, three are first and second place teams today, the West’s Northwest 31-10 Oklahoma City Thunder, the West’s Southwest 32-9 San Antonio Spurs and the West’s Pacific 29-14 Los Angeles Clippers, and two are at .500, the West’s Northwest 20-20 Denver Nuggets and the West’s Southwest 20-20 Memphis Grizzlies. Last season’s top five of the East includes today’s division leaders the Heat and the Indiana Pacers, and the East’s Atlantic 15-26 New York Knicks, the East’s Southwest 21-19 Atlanta Hawks, and the East’s Atlantic 17-22 Brooklyn Nets, they are second and third place teams now, though the Knicks and the Nets are still below .500, along with 12 other franchises in that loser more than winner condition. So, unpredictability is tipping the NBA win/los scales this year, though not by much. END/ml

NFL: PLAYOFFS, Conference Title Games // NBA: Nuggets, Warriors; League Standings

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: PLAYOFFS, Conference Title Games // NBA: Nuggets, Warriors; League Standings---NFL: FOUR will be two after Sunday’s NFL conference championship match-ups. From the American Football Conference, it will be the Denver Broncos against the New England Patriots, and from the National Football Conference the San Francisco 49ers versus the Seattle Seahawks. It couldn’t be better scripted, it being what the best moviemakers of thrillers would conjure up if they were sportswriters. No match-up out of the AFC could offer more in the realm of suspense and excitement than a Broncos/Patriots battle, surely a Peyton Manning/Tom Brady “Who is the best” face-off, and the NFC is sending into the ring its top western teams for a likely slugfest, the 49ers and the Seahawks, with 49ers quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, and the Seahawk’s QB, Russell Wilson, as potential heirs to the QB throne, which either of the two will prove to be, or won’t, when up against Manning or Brady at Super Bowl XLVIII. . . // BRONCOS (13-3), PATRIOTS (12-4)---WHEN an NFL team’s vulnerabilities convert to strengths, other teams might cower if their own vulnerabilities haven’t transformed. But the Patriots loss of receivers that had been of the QB Tom Brady/receiver connectivity empowering the team for several playoff appearances over the years, such hasn’t forced up a rushing game-only strategy in order for Brady to help guarantee a shot at the AFC championship and a trip to the Super Bowl. Not having WR’s Wes Welker and Ron Gronkowski aboard during the year’s playoffs was thought to be the Patriots holdback, a ticket to elimination. Not so! Brady has been able to mix it up, relying on passes and rushes as dictated by situational factors instead of his needing to press on mostly from rushing the football. Yet the Broncos defense, which throughout much of the NFL-2013 season, had performed barely at the margin, it has shown vast improvement across the Broncos recent games, as has the pass protection that Manning must rely on for his superb reading of deep receiver and ball runner assets, the Broncos WR and RB units surely the year’s best at E&E (Escape & Evasion) for first down completions and the TD. Still, the Patriots defense hadn’t allowed less than double-digit points to opposing teams most of the team’s NFL-2013 regular season games, in 10 of those games 20 and more, and, surprisingly, 31 points were given to the marginal Houston Texans, 23 to the Atlanta Falcons, 27 to the New York Jets. And, 31 points went to the Denver Broncos, though the Patriots won that game in overtime, 34-31. But the Broncos defense has been wrapped in similar cloth, that of high double-digit points given away in most games played, making it harder for Manning’s offense to engage in catch-up and win a game. The Broncos defense allowed 20 and more points in 12 of regular season games, worst the 48 points handed to the Dallas Cowboys during Week 5. Toward season’s end, however, the Broncos defense lowered its giveaway of points, allowing less than 20 to the opposition. The Patriots allowed 20 in its final season game, to lackluster team the Buffalo Bills, though in the week before then only seven points went to powerhouse franchise, the Baltimore Ravens, a Patriots offense overtaking the Ravens, 41-7. The Broncos gave 27 points to the Ravens in a 2013 game, won anyway by the Broncos, 49-27. Some Broncos/Patriots similarity is therefore evident here, along with the Broncos vs. Texans 37-13 win and the Patriots vs. Texans 34-31 win.. . . One comparison that suggests a Broncos offense edge is that of the total number of points that each team accumulated during the regular season, Broncos 605, Patriots much less, 444. If the Broncos defense can keep the points drawn by the Patriots well below 20, it will be a surprise on Sunday if the Patriots prevail against the Broncos, while a Broncos defense like that of Broncos games during Weeks one through 14 could produce a Patriots win that could be from anywhere between seven and 13 points ahead. . . // FORTY-NINERS(13-4), SEAHAWKS (13-3)--- THE 49ers defense allowed 20 or more points to opposing teams in seven games during NFL-2013, and the Seahawks defense let that happen in four games. Implied by this is that the two defense units are not evenly matched yet they are close enough in skills and application to reach gridlock. Shrinking this possibility, however, is that the 49ers and Seahawks offense squads are led by QB’s with great ability for responding to the various nuances of any defense and so could prevent a tie game depending upon which QB has the ball for the most minutes. Therefore, the 49ers/Seahawks match-up could easily be more about the contributions from QB’s that can be canny in ways preventing their offenses from being completely at the effect of that which opposing defenses want them to be. The 49ers QB, Colin Kaepernick, and the Seahawk’s QB, Russell Wilson, are adept enough at reading any about-to-be defense maneuver, and so key for the win could be the QB that is better protected and faster at responding in the pocket with a breakthrough throw or hand-off that within just enough ball possession minutes could defeat the opposition by seven, three, maybe by a two-point conversion, and both QB’s are gifted with a receiver corps capable of helping this to occur. Of course, this isn’t all that has made the 49ers/Seahawks match-up for this Sunday a heated rivalry. The 49ers want to show that they have been “Best of the west” and best within the NFC-entire consistently (Sunday will be the 49ers third-in-a-row appearance for the NFC title), and the Seahawks want to prove that the crown now belongs to them (They haven’t had an NFC title opportunity since 2005, but they held a division lead long and true throughout NFL-2013). . . // NBA---THE Indiana Pacers 30-7 record and its 12 game lead over second place team within the NBA East’s Central Division team, the 18-19 Chicago Bulls, such has made the Pacers the league’s number one 2013/14 franchise. But the Pacers haven’t won 12 of their last 13 games as have the NBA West’s Pacific Division second place franchise, the 25-15 Golden State Warriors, and they haven’t diminished that as have the Denver Nuggets, defeating the Warriors last night, 123-116. The Nuggets are in third place within the West’s Northwest Division, nine games behind number one, the 25-9 Portland Trail Blazers, also eight behind second place team, the 28-10 Oklahoma City Thunder. Still, the Nuggets have experienced eight-, five- and two four-game winning streaks this season. Were the Nuggets transferred to the East’s Atlantic Division today, they’d be the division’s number one team, to the East’s Southwest they’d be tied at second place with the 20-18 Atlanta Hawks, and to the East’s Central Division they’d be in second place ahead of the Bulls. But getting personal, the Nuggets found glee and a greater sense of NBA wellness last night, having beaten the team that shoved them out of the 2012/13 playoffs. . . As to the rest of the NBA, after the Pacers the Miami Heat remains the only division leading team with a substantial edge ahead of its division’s franchises, seven above second place team, the Hawks. How many NBA teams are still below .500? More than half---18, the Milwaukee Bucks still the lowest, .184 from a 7-31 record. END/ml.

NFL: PLAYOFFS, ROUNDS 2 & 3 // NBA: OLD GUARD, DOWN; NETS, NUGGETS & FIRE CHASING FIRE

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . //. . . NFL: PLAYOFFS, ROUNDS 2 & 3 // NBA—OLD GUARD, DOWN; NETS, NUGGETS & FIRE CHASING FIRE. . . // NFL---IT’s down to a “big four” and conference championship competition. On Saturday, January 18, the NFL-2013 National Conference championship team will either be the 13-3 Seattle Seahawks or the 13-4 San Francisco 49ers, on Sunday, January 19, the American Football Conference champions will either be the 13-4 Denver Broncos or the 12-4 New England Patriots. Appropriate about this is that three of the four teams now ready for Round 3 of the playoffs have been the hardest working and “winningest” franchises within their divisions throughout most of NFL-2013, yet they are accompanied by a wild card selection, the 49ers, emphasizing the existence of a ladder for a back of the group team to climb up through playoffs and get to the Super Bowl, while gone for the year are the 12-5 New Orleans Saints, the 12-4 Carolina Panthers, the 11-6 Kansas City Chiefs, the 11-6 Cincinnati Bengals, the 12-5 Indianapolis Colts, franchises that had summited early in NFL-2013 and maintained their high positions until the regular season’s very end. Disappearing alongside them from playoff losses were the 8-8-1 wild card Green Bay Packers and the wild card 10-7 San Diego Chargers, these two teams being more evidence of second tier franchises climbing the ladder during a regular season’s final games. What’s inappropriate about this? Nothing---there’s a vestige of democracy in professional football, may it stay that way. More proof of there being windows of opportunity for other than the near-perfect teams, is that of the four NFL franchises that bought elimination during Saturday and Sunday’s Round 2 of the playoffs, none went that way in humiliation, competency prevailed. Yes, it was an embarrassing first half for the Saints, but full recovery was nearly there for them in a fourth quarter. And, the Panthers demonstrated why they’ve been the epitome of a comeback franchise after years of a bottom-of-the-pile existence. Also, a single touchdown and a field goal could have put the Chargers ahead of the Broncos in a fourth Q, and a few more minutes of last Q ball possession could have placed the Colts above the Patriots. Obvious, too, from the past weekend’s four games is that for a sport that takes place upon a restricted field, no two playoff games have been conducted in exactly the same way, though it can seem even to the standard fan that events have been repeating themselves. Surely within the depth and width of a regulation football field are hundreds of different angles to either side of a down-the-middle straight line, each available for a team’s offense to choose for going forward, and it’s been the usually unexpected choice for a pass or rushing play that we have been following visually in the current NFL post-season, observing it succeeding or failing. If anything has been the same in NFL-2013’s playoffs to date, it’s been “risk” and “flexibility,” with the cards of “conservative decision-making” and of the “rigidity” that evolves from sticking to pre-game playbook choices slipped under the tray from the get-go. Exploitation of the “element of surprise” has seemed to be at the front edge of winning factors for the winning teams of Rounds 1 and 2, for example, Broncos QB Peyton Manning’s unexpected reliance on the rush, on RB Knowshon Moreno crashing through walls for TD’s that helped to sustain a Broncos lead against the Chargers, and 49ers QB, Colin Kaepernick, throwing way deep and accurately as if to inform Manning and Patriots counterpart, Tom Brady, that he’ll be throwing as they can and maybe against one or the other on February 2. Notable, too, has been a team’s offense relying steadily on awareness of its limitations, for instance, an offense’s unusually quick awareness of opposing defense capabilities, that offense QB seeing what the moveable and static barriers are to he and his receivers or runners pushing ahead, choosing what to do based on the situation and not on a pre-game choice (playbook), and so the lion’s share of tactics has included “Read-option,” “Audibles never tried before,” “FG’s from far off,” “Fourth down rushes from behind the five,” “Two-point conversions,” “Pass protection via the team’s expert re. the block,” all seen as more essential for the playoff game than during the regular season. Well, it’s been repeated to ad nauseam, that the team that plays every game as thought it were for a conference championship game, starting with Week One of the NFL regular season, that’s the team that secures a playoff berth and makes it to Round 3---no-one has had to shout that into the ears of QB’s Manning, Brady, Kaepernick, or Wilson. . . // NBA---WERE some basketball fans living and working for more than two years in an environment where they couldn’t observe U.S. sports, they’d experience bewilderment were they to return to the U.S. today and gaze at the NBA standings, for the NBA franchises that had reigned for long periods of time would be found near or at the bottom of the league’s pack of 30, beneath the .500 margin. It could be so that the 14-23 Los Angeles Lakers, 13-26 Boston Celtics, 10-28 Orlando Magic,the 13-26 Utah Jazz and the 15-22 New York Knicks,all being well below .500 today, would lower that bewilderment to days of tears. Is it so that “the Old Guard” has faded and will never be as before, champions or near-champions year after year, now relegated to winters of getting nowhere and an early spring of being dubbed,“Has-beens? Even though the Knicks just slipped into second position of the East’s Atlantic Division, they are but .405, not much better than the 15-23 fourth place Charlotte Bobcats (Eastern Conference-Southeast). And, the irony in this is that three of the former squads of top guns have been outdone by former opposites, by a gaggle of the weaker franchises of not long ago, the now 26-13 L.A. Clippers, 19-17 Toronto Raptors, 17-19 Washington Wizards, the 15-23 Bobcats. One excuse for this is that “the Old Guard” is really “the New,” in effect, new coaches, new players, but less so with regard to the Lakers and the Knicks. Can’t say that a franchise that includes Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash is new, or that a team that fronts Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith is new. So, where’s the blame? Perhaps from watching enough games this season, our fans back to the U.S. from basketball-exile would notice that it is the NBA game itself that has changed a lot more than have the once odds-favored teams, noting that perhaps “the Old Guard” would not be that if the games that they played in the past were that which is seen today. Enhanced have been full-team speed at the outset of a game in order to obtain control and a lead that is insurance against opposing top shooters reaching double-digit points before the half. Add, speed of transition from defense to offense, and increased reliance on accumulation of turnovers and on fast break dominance, on greater number of attempts for effective three-point shooting percentages, and more emphasis on the “assist” and on “defense variance” if you haven’t a pair of seven+ reachers, that is, there is greater reliance on a defense switching unexpectedly from two-man coverage to “zone” or “one-on-one.” Also, add acceptance of the “defense rebound” as among the more crucial tactics for the win; and, there is “more reliance on teamwork instead of a star-shooter’s performance capacity,” where one or two super-shooters become the core of a strategy, all others on the floor in support of his expertise, e.g., the Oklahoma City Thunder losing to the Denver Nuggets, when star Thunder shooter, Kevin Durant, had scored 30 points and the best Nuggets one-man shooting was much less than that. Those 30 points from Durant had required many minutes of play, but in that same number of minutes the Nuggets had scored enough points to maintain a lead, though not one of the Nuggets scored similarly. In sum, it’s not just that “the Old Guard” is bent from some waning proficiency, and that some of the former championship teams are actually “new;” it’s mostly that much of “the Old” is playing an old and different game, employing old tactics. . . NETS, NUGGETS---OF the middle of the pack teams, those holding third position slots within their divisions, the 15-22 Brooklyn Nets, and the 19-18 Denver Nuggets, they seem to be more afire, poised for leaps forward instead of sliding back from consecutive losses. Interesting for observance and to compare is that the two franchises have much in common. Both are led by rookie coaches with NBA player experience, Jason Kidd (Nets), Brian Shaw (Nuggets). Both teams comprise new starters, each has a relatively new bench, plus a player or two that have been known to have super star qualities---Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnettt (Nets), Ty Lawson (Nuggets). From whatever explanation, the Nets have the better chance of upward travel, in that they are in a division of second and third tier teams, the Raptors leading with but 19 games (same number of wins as the Nuggets), and that the Nets have the same number of wins as second place team, the New York Knicks, and they are but four games behind the Raptors, while the Nuggets are nine behind first and second position teams within the West’s Northwest Division, the 28-9 Portland Trail Blazers, and the 28-9 Oklahoma City Thunder, each of the latter being third within the entire league today behind the 30-8 San Antonio Spurs and the 29-7 Indiana Pacers. Still, the Nuggets just finished a five game winning streak, a gift to themselves from themselves after experiencing an eight-game losing streak. This has portrayed the Nuggets as more mercurial than the Nets, the latter a team that started the season poorly but recovered and has moved upward steadily, easier, of course, in a division that of the six NBA divisions is weakest, while the Nuggets are playing in the division that includes teams very hard to defeat---the Trail Blazers and the Thunder. Perhaps the question of which will ascend higher, the Nets or the Nuggets, or if the two will meet in playoffs, is not an important one now, for they are in conference + division positions from where the question could only matter come late March and early April of this year. Still, NBA experiences of unexpected current first and second position teams (the Trail Blazers, the Atlanta Hawks, the Raptors) advise that it is possible for the Nets and the Nuggets to be at doors opening up for the 2013/14 post-season. END/ml

NFL: PLAYOFFS, DIVISIONAL // NBA: WINDS OF CHANGE; NUGGETS, ON THE RISE

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: PLAYOFFS, DIVISIONAL // NBA: WINDS OF CHANGE; NUGGETS, ON THE RISE . . . // NFL--- IN less than a month’s time, eight will become four, then four will be two, next will be one, the Super Bowl XLVIII championship team. The process that began with last week’s NFL Wild Card elimination action continues this Saturday with the American Football Conference’s 12-5 Indianapolis Colts challenging the 12-4 New England Patriots, and the National Football Conference’s 12-5 New Orleans Saints versus the 13-3 Seattle Seahawks; on Sunday the AFC’s 10-7 San Diego Chargers against the 13-3 Denver Broncos, the NFC’s 13-4 San Francisco 49ers vs. the 12-4 Carolina Panthers. . . COLTS/PATRIOTS---OF the Colts 12 NFL-2013 wins, five were against teams that got to the season’s playoffs---the Seahawks, the Broncos, the 49ers, the Kansas City Chiefs twice. Of the Patriots 11 NFL-2013 wins, only two were against the season’s playoff teams---the Broncos, the Saints. Of those Colts five wins, three were by more than 30 points each, and two were by more than 20 per, all for a total of 168, paired with a total of 119 allowed to the opposing teams. Meanwhile, against the Broncos and Saints during NFL-2013, the Patriots accrued 64 points total, and each of the two Patriots wins against these playoff teams occurred from the Patriots being only three points ahead. Doubling the Patriots points from the Broncos and Saints games, and adding the highest of the two winning scores, the total number of Patriots points becomes less than those obtained by the aforementioned five Colts wins. On paper, then, there exists an argument that the Colts are the better team and can defeat the Patriots tomorrow by the seven or more points ahead that a majority of NFL analysts say the Patriots will walk away with. Underscored has been the bad start that the Colts offense had last week vs. the Chiefs, prior to one of the best among unexpected comebacks by an offense in NFL post-season history, which makes sense when considered is that the Patriots defense is probably a cannier, thus more difficult barrier to crush than that of the Chiefs. Too, the Patriots always seem reconstituted at the tail end of a season and into the post-season. Each of the Patriots last five wins occurred from 34 points and more. Also, against a tough Colts defense, Patriots QB Tom Brady will arrive with a 2013 passing record that includes more than 4,340 yards achieved, 380 completions and 25 touchdowns. Colts QB Andrew Luck’s record includes 340 completions and 23 TD’s. From rushing, the Patriots are ahead of the Colts in yards obtained, 2,065 and 19 TD’s, against the Colts having rushed for 1,743 and 15 TD’s. So, there isn’t a lot of disparity here; a fair guess is that the winning team will be from no more than seven points. . . SAINTS/SEAHAWKS---During the regular NFL-2013 season, the Saints lost to the Seahawks, 34-7, and to two franchises that the Seahawks defeated during NFL-2013---the Carolina Panthers, the St. Louis Rams. The Saints also lost to the Patriots, therefore to three of the seven other teams in the current playoffs. During NFL-2013, the Seahawks lost to two of the current playoff teams, the Colts and the 49ers, the latter a team that lost to the Saints. In six of its 13 NFL-2013 wins, the Seahawks allowed 10 or fewer points to an opposing team, and in its three losses the Seahawks allowed 28, 17, and 10, while the Saints defense had given away 13 and higher in each of its 12 wins and 17 and higher during its four losses. Too, the QB Drew Brees Saints offense had managed to accrue more than 30 points in five of the Saints 2013 wins, in two of those games more than 40, while the QB Russell Wilson Seahawks offense failed only once to win a game by more than 20 points. Here, as with the Patriots Tom Brady and the Colts Andrew Luck, we have the older and more experienced QB (Brees) vs. a QB that is among the best of relative newcomers (Wilson). The former doesn’t always prevail against the latter. . . BRONCOS/CHARGERS---The numbers advise that throughout NFL-2013, the Chargers had a better defense than that of the Broncos, while the Broncos had the better offense, probably the best offense within all of the NFL. But the Chargers defeated the Broncos during Week 14 of the regular season, 27-20, and they also defeated the Colts, a team that the Broncos lost to during the regular season. And, the Chargers beat the year’s AFC Wild Card Chiefs twice this year, which the Broncos defeated twice, as well. Chargers QB Phillip Rivers hasn’t the season record that Broncos QB Peyton Manning has, 32 TD’s compared to Manning’s record breaking 55. Rivers completed 358 passes during the season, Manning, 450. Too, no Chargers receiver has attained more than eight TD”s, while four of Manning’s receivers have purchased more than 10, WR Demaryius Thomas highest with 14 TD’s. Also, the Chargers rushed for but nine TD’s throughout 2013, the Broncos for 16. Still, the Chargers offense is astute enough to exploit weaknesses in the Broncos defense and will certainly put points on the board. The Broncos defense allowed more than 20 points to opposing teams during 10 of 16 games played. Our take is that the worry in Denver as a Manning-led offense struggles in the fourth quarter to offset points given away to the Chargers in the first three Q’s, will dissolve as Manning and his receivers get the job done, a Broncos win by no more than 10. . . 49ers/PANTHERS---OF the four games occurring this weekend, the 49ers/Panthers match-up will be the one that competes two of the NFL’s newer leading QB’s among the eight, the 49ers Colin Kaepernick and the Panthers Cam Newton. According to the year’s record book, both are close enough to being equal when it comes to passing yards + TD’s gained, the 49ers having received for 3,210 yards and 21 TD’s, the Panthers for 3,379 and 24 TD’s. Rushing, the 49ers accrued 2,201 yards and 18 TD’s, the Panthers 2,026 and 14 TD’s. But during NFL-2013, the 49ers lost to the Panthers and to three other of the year’s playoff teams---the Colts, Saints and Seahawks. The 49ers lost to the Saints and the Seahawks. There is rough parity here, either side winning by no more than seven. . . BUT---as pointed out in a recent posting, it’s those unseen variables, that which cannot be quantified, that often dominates. Many predictions in sports go afoul, from being attractive to being ugly . . // NBA--- THE Indiana Pacers are leading the NBA East from 28 wins, the San Antonio Spurs the West with 28. That’s having been victorious around 80 percent of 35 and 36 games played respectively. But this could change soon, with the East’s Miami Heat and the West’s Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers close behind with 27 wins each. Next best, the Los Angeles Clippers, with 25 wins, and at their heels are the Golden State Warriors, with 24. Changes across recent days are the Brooklyn Nets, landing at second position within the East’s Atlantic Division, three wins behind first position team, the 17-17 Toronto Raptors, and the West’s Denver Nuggets winning four straight, last night taking down the Thunder by an unexpected lead, 101-88, in spite of the Thunder’s Kevin Grant accruing 30 points. The Nuggets are now 18-17/.514, third place/theWest’s Northwest Division, which is a better record than purchased by the East’s Atlantic leader, the Raptors. The East’s Atlantic division is surely the worst in American professional sports this year, only the Raptors being at .500. Yet the division’s 13-22 third position N.Y. Knicks defeated the Heat on Thursday, 102-92, for a Knicks third straight win. . . Eighteen NBA franchises are still below .500, and worst and last within the league are the 7-27 Milwaukee Bucks---.206. . . DENVER NUGGETS---WITH the Nuggets winning four games in a row, the last versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, 101-88, likelihood of the team reaching the 2013/14 playoffs has re-entered the realm of the possible, though earlier in the current NBA season the Nuggets experienced an eight game losing streak. Even so, the road to the playoffs won’t be easy for the Nuggets at any stop along the way. Of the 12 games that the Nuggets have played this year against teams that are now in first and second place within their respective divisions, the Nuggets lost eight and won five, and from today there are 47 more games for the Nuggets to play, of which the Nuggets must win between 30 and 33 to have some insurance for a playoff billet. But 19 of the 47 will be against today’s first and second place teams, with only 12 to be played versus last place teams. If the Nuggets can win 12 of the 19 games scheduled against the league’s now top teams, and also win eight of the 12 vs. the league’s weakest teams, and win half of the 27 games then left for the Nuggets to play, which are vs. teams that are middle of the pack, i.e., third and fourth position franchises, then the Nuggets will have as many as 51 wins, which can guarantee a playoff appearance. But this scenario calls for the Nuggets to win around 61 percent of its scheduled games starting January 11, vs. the Orlando Magic. To date, the Nuggets haven’t maintained a winning percentage as high as that, though the Nuggets have demonstrated capability for it from a seven game winning streak, two four game winning streaks and two three game winning streaks---seen from today, a Nuggets 2013/14 playoff berth isn’t an impossible quest. END/ml

NFL: PLAYOFFS, FIRST ROUND--ANALYSIS // NBA: STANDINGS, AS OF NOW

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . //. . . NFL: PLAYOFFS, FIRST ROUND---ANALYSIS// NBA: STANDINGS, AS OF NOW. . . // NFL---THE AFC’s Colts and Chargers, the NFC’s Saints and 49ers---they’re “in,” having defeated respectively the Chiefs, the Bengals, the Eagles and the Packers. This weekend, the Colts will face the Patriots, and the Chargers will challenge the Broncos, and it will be the Saints against the Seahawks, the 49ers versus the Panthers. During NFL 2013's Post-season Round One of Saturday/Sunday past, the four winners combined for 121 points over 98 points allowed, which would suggest wide disparity between winning and losing top-of-the-pile NFL teams, were it not that three of the four games played were won by one, two and three points respectively. Only the Chargers/Packers contest reflected a wide win-over-loser gap, 27-10, Chargers. Two of the weekend’s playoffs were nearly a nose-to-nose finish, the Colts 45-44 win against the Chiefs, also the Saints 26-24 field goal win against the Eagles within seconds of endgame, same re. a last-minute 49ers FG nailing a 23-20 win vs. the Packers. Noted, too, if you watched all eight franchises (four games), was that no two teams met their challenges exactly in the same way. Strategies, degrees of strength, application of skills varied, implying that there is much diversity within the NFL’s best of the best, and that the eight teams have had a clear picture of their own vulnerabilities and strengths, as well as that of teams that they will oppose. From examination of some of these differences, we might be able to determine that which can cause one or the other team to prevail during a next playoff encounter, for instance, SF quarterback Colin Kaepernick can rush for a next first down as if a running back of greater merit than many, while he can pass long or short with precision and accuracy; and, Colts QB Andrew Luck and his receivers are exceptionally adept at transitioning from a previously ordered play to a barely rehearsed, thus essentially new "audible." Also, there’s no denying that the Chargers defense has mastered how and where to thrust power in least number of seconds vs. any style offense, as if they’ve learned to read and exploit what any opposing team’s read-option version could produce. Also, the Colts/Chiefs game demonstrated the value of an offense mixing it up, in that attackers of both teams enacted “extreme surprise” from execution of unexpected tactics, i.e., not always doing what a situation seemed to have called for, each accruing more than 40 points vs. their defense squads being caught off guard. Too, and probably as guided by head coaches, there were from all eight teams fast switches from risk to no-risk, in effect, teams taking chances during drives to the red zone, then going super-conservative---less passing, taking advantage of FG range rather than going for that fourth down rush, unless there existed something like six, maybe eight yards to goal. . . The AFC’s Patriots and Broncos, and the NFC’s Panthers and Seahawks are up next for their contenders in the playoffs, i.e., in games facing the past weekend’s four winners. The Patriots and Broncos will be challenged by teams that they have met before, teams that have learned to maximize capabilities and reduce the effects of limitations. Many a bet this coming weekend could be the proverbial “fool’s errand.”. . . // NBA---WITHIN the Eastern Conference only the EC Central’s Indiana Pacers and the EC Southeast’s Miami Heat hold commanding leads over second place franchises, the Pacers with 27 wins atop second place Chicago Bulls having 14, and the Heat’s 26 wins above second place Atlanta Hawks having 18. Meanwhile, inside the Western Conference no division leading team has a commanding lead, best belonging to the WC Southwest’s San Antonio Spurs 26 wins above second place Houston Rockets---22. The Pacers 27 wins is matched with 27 by WC Northwest’s Oklahoma City Thunder’s 27, both being the best NBA records as of today, though the Thunder is but one win above WC second place team, the 26-8 Portland Trail Blazers. Among teams rising, the 13-21 Brooklyn Nets are holding to second place within the EC Atlantic, behind leading team, the 16-16 Toronto Raptors, and the WC Northwest’s Denver Nuggets have risen suddenly from the ashes of a long losing streak, reflected in a recent thrashing of the WC Pacific’s Los Angeles Lakers, 137-115. Still struggling "unexpectedly" at the bottom of their divisions are the EC Atlantic’s 11-22 New York Knicks and the WC Southwest’s 15-18 Memphis Grizzlies. Regarding the remaining NBA franchises, nearly all have been in the land of getting nowhere, though the 13-21 Boston Celtics could move into second place of the EC Atlantic by defeating the Denver Nuggets tonight and if the Nets lose their next game. If the Nuggets defeat the Celtics tonight, the Denver team will return to .500 and could soon retake the WC Northwest’s third position, replacing the now 17-17/.500 Minnesota Timberwolves. . . END/ml.

NFL: 2013/14 PLAYOFFS, ANALYSIS // NBA: STANDINGS AT THE NEW YEAR

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: PLAYOFFS-2013/14, ANALYSIS // NBA: STANDINGS AT THE NEW YEAR. . . USUALLY the NFL post-season happens differently than desired or expected. But when a perfect storm seems to be headed one’s way, it’s hard to visualize a different outcome, like the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks arriving ready for one or the other to achieve Super Bowl XLVIII dominance on Sunday, February 2. What is it that constitutes the NFL post-season perfect storm? Surely it’s a Super Bowl that competes the league’s current best defense (Seahawks) against the NFL’s now best offense (Broncos), and the NFL’s best quarterback ever, the Broncos Peyton Manning, versus the NFL’s possibly best next-gen QB, the Seahawks Russell Wilson. And, let’s keep in mind that while a perfect storm is definable, we can never know what the final damage will look like. Surely, the Peyton Manning-led Broncos offense can cause the Seahawks defense to appear marginal and raggedy; yet the Broncos could lose to the Seahawks from a Broncos defense that throughout the regular season only managed to allow fewer than 20 points to an opposing team in four of 16 games. QB Manning’s fast read of an opposing defense, and his subsequent pass or handoff, this serves a family of well-positioned weapon systems, that is, wide receivers Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, tight end Julius Thomas, plus running backs Monte Ball and Knowshon Moreno. This combo has outplayed just about every defense faced during NFL-2013. The Seahawks offense-counterparts can only compare when up against a weak enough defense. This said, if the Broncos defense allows more than, say, 28 points to the Seahawks, the best of the most effective Manning-led offense plays may not be able to offset that. Whenever the Broncos experienced a deficit greater than that during NFL-2013, Manning and crew weren’t able to break ahead easily with enough TD’s + field goals . . . Of course, the Broncos and the Seahawks first have to purchase their conference titles, and each can do that by winning two games. The fireworks begin this Saturday and Sunday, January 4 and January 5, from Wild Card competition, to be continued January 11 and 12 with Divisional Playoffs, then it’s Sunday, January 19, for Conference Championship selection, afterward February’s Super Bowl, to be held at NYC. Let’s look at how this could play out at the start, using some existing stats and some performance factors. Tomorrow, it’s the AC West’s 11-5 Kansas City Chiefs battling the AC South’s 11-5 Indianapolis Colts, and the NC South’s 11-5 New Orleans Saints competing against the NC East’s 10-6 Philadelphia Eagles. On Sunday, it will be the AC West’s 9-7 San Diego Chargers facing the AC North’s 11-5 Cincinnati Bengals, and the NC West’s 12-4 San Francisco 49ers versus the NC North’s 8-7-1 Green Bay Packers. The teams in this mix that have NFL-2013 win/loss numbers suggesting elimination are the 9-7 Chargers and the 8-7-1 Packers, all others have won 10 or more games during the regular season, the 49ers atop from 12-4. This said, the NFL playoffs are close to being a clean slate, meaning that the Chargers and the Packers could reach the divisional face-offs and go further. . . As for tomorrow’s CHIEFS/COLTS GAME, from pass completions = touchdowns, the two are without significant disparity. Both include almost evenly-balanced defense and offense squads regarding points allowed/points gained. However, that the Colts defeated the Seahawks, the Broncos, the 49ers “and the Chiefs” during 2013 regulation, and that the Chiefs lost twice to Denver “and to the Colts” during regulation, such implies a Colts win, the aforementioned balance signaling a win by no more than three points. . . As to Saturday’s SAINTS/EAGLES GAME, the former’s defense has done a better job throughout NFL-2013 than the latter’s defense, allowing no more than 17 points in any of its 10 victories, the Saints last win being 42-17 vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Six of the Saints NFL-2013 wins were of 30 points or higher. Even so, the Eagles can claim five wins of 30 or more points, including a 54-11 win against the NC North’s Chicago Bears and a 49-20 defeat vs. the AC West’s Oakland Raiders; but the Eagles five losses totaled 191 points, three of these 52, 48 and 33 points given away respectively. The Saints defense allowed 134 points in its five losses, no loss more than the 34 points given away to the Seahawks. Too, the Saints were able to defeat the NC East’s Dallas Cowboys, 49-17, during NFL-2013, a team that the Eagles had defeated for its last shot at making the playoffs, final score being 24-22. Yet the Eagles have lost only one of its last eight games. Of its last nine games played, the Saints have lost four, not one of these by a narrow margin. Either the Saints or Eagles could dominate on Saturday, our take being the winner by seven . . . CHARGERS VS. BENGALS---Here we have a 9-7 + third place division team, the Chargers, vs. an 11-5 division leading franchise, the Bengals. The Chargers can boast about defeating the Broncos and the Colts this year, also the Eagles, and the Chiefs twice. That’s wins against four other teams that have attained NFL-2013 playoff spots. Still, the Bengals have beaten the Colts, the Patriots, the Packers “and the Chargers” during NFL-2013, four teams that have reached the playoffs. The regular season’s points allowed/points gained ratios for these teams have been fairly even, and so the difference on Sunday could be home advantage, therefore the game ending with the Bengals ahead by three. . . S.F. 49ers VS. PACKERS---That the 49ers defeated the Seahawks “and the Packers” during NFL-2013 speaks well for this team that can also take pride in having won its last six games of the regular season. But three of its four season losses have been against today’s playoff selectees, the Seahawks (the 49ers and the Seahawks met twice in 2013), the Colts and the Saints, while eight of the 49er’s 12 season wins were against third and fourth position franchises. The Packers, they haven’t been as hot as the 49ers in the last half of NFL-2013, winning but three of their last nine games. In most of their losses, the two teams have allowed more than 25 points to winners, suggesting that Sunday’s match will be QB against QB. Will it be 49er QB, Colin Kaepernick, or Packer QB, Aaron Rodgers, as the victor? Post-season experience and data has Rodgers ahead. Also, the Packers have received for more TD’s than the 49ers have throughout NFL-2013, and they have been just one point shy from equaling the number of 49er TD’s from rushing. The implication here is that the 49ers/Packers game will be close. . . In sum, the edge that appears from the NFL-2013 win/loss records, and the year’s offense and defense data, point to the Colts or the Patriots playing the Broncos for the AC championship title, and the 49ers or the Saints vs. the Seahawks for the NC title. BUT---while win/loss figures and categories of performance-data outweigh what’s on the list of unseen variables, the latter are potent enough to astonish, to surprise. In other words, the playoff teams that begin with the best numbers may not be those that get past early rounds and will be afield for Super Bowl XLVIII. . . // NBA---MORE than a third of NBA 2013/14 is in the past, a new year has begun and the Western Conference Northwest’s Oklahoma City Thunder, the WC Southwest’s San Antonio Spurs, the WC’s Pacific’s L.A. Clippers, and the Eastern Conference Central’s Indiana Pacers, the EC’s Southeast Miami Heat and the EC’s Atlantic’s Toronto Raptors have been leading the league as if their division first place slots were frozen in time. Except for the Raptors, each has 24 or more wins to date. These division leading teams are playoff-possibles today. Meanwhile, it’s been up and down the win/loss elevator for other franchises, sadly and unexpectedly for the East’s Atlantic Division's 9-21 New York Knicks landing at last place, and for the WC Northwest 14-17 Denver Nuggets, a team that obtained a seven game winning streak November 21 through December 3. Since a December 23 loss to the WC Pacific’s Golden State Warriors, the Nuggets have lost four more games. Two additional straight losses will weaken the purity of those seven consecutive wins. Of the 51 games that the Nuggets have left to play before the NBA 2013/14 season ends in April, they must win more than 30 to fit into playoff candidacy range. That’s being better than a .500 team, winning more than 50 percent of games left to play, and the Nuggets hadn’t been at that range for long during 2013’s competition. Nor have the WC Pacific's L.A. Lakers, the NC Atlantic's Boston Celtics or the NC Central's Chicago Bulls sustained promise, each now below .500, the Celtics luckily in second place of the East’s Atlantic because the division has the lowest win/loss continuums, the Raptors being in first place with but 15 wins, one more than the WC Northeast fourth place/.452 Nuggets have accrued. . . END/ml.