NFL: PLAYOFFS, DIVISIONAL // NBA: WINDS OF CHANGE; NUGGETS, ON THE RISE

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: PLAYOFFS, DIVISIONAL // NBA: WINDS OF CHANGE; NUGGETS, ON THE RISE . . . // NFL--- IN less than a month’s time, eight will become four, then four will be two, next will be one, the Super Bowl XLVIII championship team. The process that began with last week’s NFL Wild Card elimination action continues this Saturday with the American Football Conference’s 12-5 Indianapolis Colts challenging the 12-4 New England Patriots, and the National Football Conference’s 12-5 New Orleans Saints versus the 13-3 Seattle Seahawks; on Sunday the AFC’s 10-7 San Diego Chargers against the 13-3 Denver Broncos, the NFC’s 13-4 San Francisco 49ers vs. the 12-4 Carolina Panthers. . . COLTS/PATRIOTS---OF the Colts 12 NFL-2013 wins, five were against teams that got to the season’s playoffs---the Seahawks, the Broncos, the 49ers, the Kansas City Chiefs twice. Of the Patriots 11 NFL-2013 wins, only two were against the season’s playoff teams---the Broncos, the Saints. Of those Colts five wins, three were by more than 30 points each, and two were by more than 20 per, all for a total of 168, paired with a total of 119 allowed to the opposing teams. Meanwhile, against the Broncos and Saints during NFL-2013, the Patriots accrued 64 points total, and each of the two Patriots wins against these playoff teams occurred from the Patriots being only three points ahead. Doubling the Patriots points from the Broncos and Saints games, and adding the highest of the two winning scores, the total number of Patriots points becomes less than those obtained by the aforementioned five Colts wins. On paper, then, there exists an argument that the Colts are the better team and can defeat the Patriots tomorrow by the seven or more points ahead that a majority of NFL analysts say the Patriots will walk away with. Underscored has been the bad start that the Colts offense had last week vs. the Chiefs, prior to one of the best among unexpected comebacks by an offense in NFL post-season history, which makes sense when considered is that the Patriots defense is probably a cannier, thus more difficult barrier to crush than that of the Chiefs. Too, the Patriots always seem reconstituted at the tail end of a season and into the post-season. Each of the Patriots last five wins occurred from 34 points and more. Also, against a tough Colts defense, Patriots QB Tom Brady will arrive with a 2013 passing record that includes more than 4,340 yards achieved, 380 completions and 25 touchdowns. Colts QB Andrew Luck’s record includes 340 completions and 23 TD’s. From rushing, the Patriots are ahead of the Colts in yards obtained, 2,065 and 19 TD’s, against the Colts having rushed for 1,743 and 15 TD’s. So, there isn’t a lot of disparity here; a fair guess is that the winning team will be from no more than seven points. . . SAINTS/SEAHAWKS---During the regular NFL-2013 season, the Saints lost to the Seahawks, 34-7, and to two franchises that the Seahawks defeated during NFL-2013---the Carolina Panthers, the St. Louis Rams. The Saints also lost to the Patriots, therefore to three of the seven other teams in the current playoffs. During NFL-2013, the Seahawks lost to two of the current playoff teams, the Colts and the 49ers, the latter a team that lost to the Saints. In six of its 13 NFL-2013 wins, the Seahawks allowed 10 or fewer points to an opposing team, and in its three losses the Seahawks allowed 28, 17, and 10, while the Saints defense had given away 13 and higher in each of its 12 wins and 17 and higher during its four losses. Too, the QB Drew Brees Saints offense had managed to accrue more than 30 points in five of the Saints 2013 wins, in two of those games more than 40, while the QB Russell Wilson Seahawks offense failed only once to win a game by more than 20 points. Here, as with the Patriots Tom Brady and the Colts Andrew Luck, we have the older and more experienced QB (Brees) vs. a QB that is among the best of relative newcomers (Wilson). The former doesn’t always prevail against the latter. . . BRONCOS/CHARGERS---The numbers advise that throughout NFL-2013, the Chargers had a better defense than that of the Broncos, while the Broncos had the better offense, probably the best offense within all of the NFL. But the Chargers defeated the Broncos during Week 14 of the regular season, 27-20, and they also defeated the Colts, a team that the Broncos lost to during the regular season. And, the Chargers beat the year’s AFC Wild Card Chiefs twice this year, which the Broncos defeated twice, as well. Chargers QB Phillip Rivers hasn’t the season record that Broncos QB Peyton Manning has, 32 TD’s compared to Manning’s record breaking 55. Rivers completed 358 passes during the season, Manning, 450. Too, no Chargers receiver has attained more than eight TD”s, while four of Manning’s receivers have purchased more than 10, WR Demaryius Thomas highest with 14 TD’s. Also, the Chargers rushed for but nine TD’s throughout 2013, the Broncos for 16. Still, the Chargers offense is astute enough to exploit weaknesses in the Broncos defense and will certainly put points on the board. The Broncos defense allowed more than 20 points to opposing teams during 10 of 16 games played. Our take is that the worry in Denver as a Manning-led offense struggles in the fourth quarter to offset points given away to the Chargers in the first three Q’s, will dissolve as Manning and his receivers get the job done, a Broncos win by no more than 10. . . 49ers/PANTHERS---OF the four games occurring this weekend, the 49ers/Panthers match-up will be the one that competes two of the NFL’s newer leading QB’s among the eight, the 49ers Colin Kaepernick and the Panthers Cam Newton. According to the year’s record book, both are close enough to being equal when it comes to passing yards + TD’s gained, the 49ers having received for 3,210 yards and 21 TD’s, the Panthers for 3,379 and 24 TD’s. Rushing, the 49ers accrued 2,201 yards and 18 TD’s, the Panthers 2,026 and 14 TD’s. But during NFL-2013, the 49ers lost to the Panthers and to three other of the year’s playoff teams---the Colts, Saints and Seahawks. The 49ers lost to the Saints and the Seahawks. There is rough parity here, either side winning by no more than seven. . . BUT---as pointed out in a recent posting, it’s those unseen variables, that which cannot be quantified, that often dominates. Many predictions in sports go afoul, from being attractive to being ugly . . // NBA--- THE Indiana Pacers are leading the NBA East from 28 wins, the San Antonio Spurs the West with 28. That’s having been victorious around 80 percent of 35 and 36 games played respectively. But this could change soon, with the East’s Miami Heat and the West’s Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers close behind with 27 wins each. Next best, the Los Angeles Clippers, with 25 wins, and at their heels are the Golden State Warriors, with 24. Changes across recent days are the Brooklyn Nets, landing at second position within the East’s Atlantic Division, three wins behind first position team, the 17-17 Toronto Raptors, and the West’s Denver Nuggets winning four straight, last night taking down the Thunder by an unexpected lead, 101-88, in spite of the Thunder’s Kevin Grant accruing 30 points. The Nuggets are now 18-17/.514, third place/theWest’s Northwest Division, which is a better record than purchased by the East’s Atlantic leader, the Raptors. The East’s Atlantic division is surely the worst in American professional sports this year, only the Raptors being at .500. Yet the division’s 13-22 third position N.Y. Knicks defeated the Heat on Thursday, 102-92, for a Knicks third straight win. . . Eighteen NBA franchises are still below .500, and worst and last within the league are the 7-27 Milwaukee Bucks---.206. . . DENVER NUGGETS---WITH the Nuggets winning four games in a row, the last versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, 101-88, likelihood of the team reaching the 2013/14 playoffs has re-entered the realm of the possible, though earlier in the current NBA season the Nuggets experienced an eight game losing streak. Even so, the road to the playoffs won’t be easy for the Nuggets at any stop along the way. Of the 12 games that the Nuggets have played this year against teams that are now in first and second place within their respective divisions, the Nuggets lost eight and won five, and from today there are 47 more games for the Nuggets to play, of which the Nuggets must win between 30 and 33 to have some insurance for a playoff billet. But 19 of the 47 will be against today’s first and second place teams, with only 12 to be played versus last place teams. If the Nuggets can win 12 of the 19 games scheduled against the league’s now top teams, and also win eight of the 12 vs. the league’s weakest teams, and win half of the 27 games then left for the Nuggets to play, which are vs. teams that are middle of the pack, i.e., third and fourth position franchises, then the Nuggets will have as many as 51 wins, which can guarantee a playoff appearance. But this scenario calls for the Nuggets to win around 61 percent of its scheduled games starting January 11, vs. the Orlando Magic. To date, the Nuggets haven’t maintained a winning percentage as high as that, though the Nuggets have demonstrated capability for it from a seven game winning streak, two four game winning streaks and two three game winning streaks---seen from today, a Nuggets 2013/14 playoff berth isn’t an impossible quest. END/ml