NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII---"Looking Ahead, the Outcome Imagined."

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII---“Looking Ahead, the Outcome Imagined.” . . . // NFL ---TWO days from now, the 15-3 Denver Broncos and the 15-3 Seattle Seahawks will meet to determine which of the two deserves Super Bowl XLVIII’s NFL championship trophy, a dream match-up in that the NFL’s smartest and best scoring offense will be up against the NFL’s hardest defense to penetrate. Were Olympics judges doing the measuring, we’d have a 10 up against a 10. Both teams finished NFL-2013 regulation at the top of their respective conferences prior to NFL 2013’s post-season conference championship games, commencement of which resulted in the Broncos defeating the New England Patriots and the Seahawks taking down the San Francisco 49ers. . . SO, “INTO THE WOODS WE GO!” It’s the morning after, and Seahawks fans are sulking. The Broncos won Super Bowl XLVIII. Here’s why: . . . OFFENSE---(1) DUE largely to consistent and effective pass protection, the Broncos offense obtained more than 35 ball possession minutes (similar to that gained when facing the N.E. Patriots in January), during which pass completions and rushes enabled a large number of first downs and end zone arrivals, followed by third and fourth down success inside the 10, result: four TD’s atop three field goals by endgame. . . Instead of always attempting to push back the Seahawks fast and powerful pass rush unit and other defenders, the Broncos offense went for E & E, “Escape & Evasion,” landing open and taking the football forward. (Say, didn’t this work versus the Patriots, with Manning and his preferred receivers employing “the element of surprise” expertly, observers noting unexpected maneuvers keeping the opposing defense off-guard, Broncos yardage then gained?). . . 2) Broncos QB Peyton Manning threw for more than 420 yards, his pass completion rate greater than 71 percent, enhanced by Broncos pass receivers remaining in line-of-sight trajectory with their sudden turnabouts and horizontal or angled crossings faster and with greater accuracy for the catch than in any game since September, 2013 (Vs. the Patriots two weeks ago, Manning’s pass completion rate was 72 percent). . . 3) Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno and TE Monte Ball averaged more than 5.6 yards per rush, and rushed for more than 90 yards and a TD each. . . DEFENSE --- 1) The Broncos defense held the Seahawks to zero in the first quarter and to less than 20 points by endgame, primarily from the Broncos pass rush forcing Seahawks QB Russell Wilson into having to dump preferred pass and run options for least desired choices, namely Seahawks straight downfield rushes that couldn’t secure enough yards for first downs and landings on Broncos territory, resulting in “punt necessity” and expansion of ball possession minutes for the Broncos offense. . . (2) The Broncos secondary blocked more than 90 percent of passes thrown by Seahawks QB, Russell Wilson, whenever the Seahawks offense was forward of the Broncos 40. . . Glass half-empty Broncos fans had worried about the fact that the Broncos defense had allowed an average of 26 points to opposing teams across NFL-2013‘s regular season, but glass half-full fans were correct by banking on the fact that in the Broncos last four games the team’s much-improved defense allowed only an average of 15 points to opponents. . . NOW---Set the above aside . . . Here’s why the Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday: OFFENSE --- (1) Seahawks QB Russell Wilson delivered confusion by operating conservatively and then by taking risks, exploiting the rush favorably only when it seemed beforehand to be a sure thing, that is, when his readings spotted pathways for attainment of even a four yard gain. Yet Wilson passed to the side when least expected, succeeding for first downs and eventual end zone arrivals. But rather than risk TD-attempt failure during third and fourth downs inside the 10, Wilson went for the field goal three times. . . (2) During the regular NFL-2013 season, Wilson had better results passing long or handing the ball off for the deep rush, but he hadn’t had the smarter results that he achieved during Super Bowl XLVIII. Viewers noted that the Seahawks slow ground game robbed the Broncos offense of optimum holds on ball possession minutes, which helped to keep the Broncos offense from accumulating more points than that which the Broncos defense gave away in the first three quarters. . . (3) The Seahawks pass protection unit succeeded at blocking the Broncos pass rush enough times for Seahawks QB Wilson to keep his pass completion rate above 62 percent, and Broncos defense weaknesses enabled Wilson to rush for his own TD. . . Pre-game focus on other than Wilson masked that last year he tied Manning's eons-ago NFL record for most TD’s thrown or rushed by a rookie QB . . . DEFENSE --- Speed and power of the Seahawks defense forced Broncos QB Manning to rely on too many short off to-the-side throws and meager straight-ahead rushes, limiting first down gains and preventing the Broncos offense from scoring enough points to offset the more than 30 points that were allowed the Seahawks offense by the Broncos defense. . . /// BACK TO THE PRESENT---“THE MANNING FACTOR.” CAN Manning be stopped? During the NFL-2013 regular season, assaults that Manning led accrued more than 5,400 yards and more than 600 points, and Manning completed 55 TD-throws during the season. Manning doesn’t go afield with a playbook. He goes with multiple playbooks; he knows attack football the way that Nobel winners in science know physics. Manning has proved that speed of decision-making and a skilled arm can make up for physical leg-speed that’s lost with age. Interfering with Manning’s effectiveness by speeding up a pass rush and keeping him from getting rid of the football effectively, is the only tactic available and diffiuclt to perform. During NFL-2013, Manning experienced only 18 sacks, averaging just one per game (Remember Ali’s, “Move like a butterfly, sting like a bee”---in this sense, Manning’s a superb trickster. Besides, Manning’s blessed with one of the NFL’s best pass protection units). . . RECEIVER OVER-MATCH --- THE Seahawks downfield defenders Richard Sherman, Walter Thurmond III and Byron Maxwell are definitely among the best in the NFL, but the three aren’t enough of a match “numerically” compared with the number of skilled players comprising Manning’s receiver corps---Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Andre Caldwell. The best that can be done by the Seahawks here is Football-101, sensing Manning’s sudden choice of receiver for pass connectivity and being in position to block the pass or hold the receiver back from additional yardage after a catch . . . DEFENSE WITHIN THE OFFENSE---IT isn’t just RB Knowshon Moreno or TE Monte Ball carving out space so that either could rush, then leap over, through or around a seemingly impenetrable defense. These Broncos ball runners gain lead-off support from tackles and blocks for those spaces and yardage gained (Again, Football-101). Enabling the Seahawks defense to stop Moreno and Ball from having space for the successful rush will require Seahawks defenders to shift instantly from the pass rush that the Seahawks have preferred to use in two waves against QB’s in the pocket, which could free Moreno and Ball for a Manning hand-off or short throw (That’s when Manning can smile and shout, “Checkmate”). . . /// OUTCOME---UNLESS there are flukes, the unexpected, e.g., a fumble enabling a Seahawks cornerback to run 40 or more yards for a TD, or the temperature at MetLife Stadium drops to degrees where Manning’s throwing power diminishes considerably, or there are injuries to Manning, to key Broncos WR’s and RB’s, the Denver franchise will likely win Super Bowl XLVIII, final: Broncos ahead by seven, maybe 10. END/ml