NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII, "STATS & the Unexpected Turn" // NBA: "Standings, Rookie Head Coaches;" "Nuggets, Pacers"

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVIII, “STATS & the Unexpected Turn” // NBA: “Standings, Rookie Head Coaches; Nuggets, Pacers.” . . . // . . NFL---NOTHING dumps on, makes a mockery of and erases a data-based prediction more than the “We just couldn’t see it coming” factor, that rare event, for example, the fumble after a fourth Q two-minute warning that enables the NFL’s weakest and slowest cornerback to make the pick and run eighty-four yards for the win. We’ve heard the TV or radio commentator shout, “Never before has that kicker failed to complete a field goal from under thirty yards---the underdog has taken it home!” Then there’s “the human factor,” QB so-and-so has a cold,” “LB Jones twisted his ankle in the first Q.” Plain truth, anything can happen in sports. Of course, that which prepares a football team for reducing the possibility of a fumble and that 84 yard run and a missed FG is team competence, which can be measured, it’s decipherable, enabling a sound prediction, signaling what the likely outcome of a future game can be. Welcome, STATS! They give fans an idea of which team could prevail over another, though there’s no guarantee of this, for the “We just couldn’t see it coming” factor is always nearby. So, what is it that leans toward the Broncos or Seahawks winning Super Bowl XLVIII? Overall, there’s a clear indication from the total number of points accumulated and also of points given away by both franchises during NFL-2013, that the year’s best offense will be facing the year’s best defense. If the Broncos defense can keep an opposing team from gaining more than 20 points into a fourth Q, and if the Seahawks pass protection unit can allow the Seahawks QB, Russell Wilson, the time and space for deep pass completions and two TD’s, well, a close game can occur, the sort that finishes in a tie and requires OT to find a winner, where the winning team might have it by no more than three. But---the Broncos three 2013 regular season losses saw 39, 34 and 27 points given away respectively to opposing teams. Those were numbers that Manning’s efficient drives couldn’t offset. Too, the Broncos weakest 2013 wins were games where the Broncos defense returned the football to Manning for fewer ball possession minutes than in stronger wins. Against the Patriots on Sunday, only two of Manning’s drives failed to produce a TD or FG. A strong Manning suit re. the drive is his seeking and finding closure economically, achieving points from least number of plays required, which metaphorically is a steep hill to climb when the Broncos defense allows 27 or more points. Therefore, if the Seahawks offense fails to put up 27 or more points, and its defense cannot confuse and neutralize Manning’s pass protection and Manning’s receiver corps just enough to keep the Broncos from offsetting the loss of 27 or more points, it’s unlikely that the Seahawks will leave New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium this February carrying the Lombardi trophy. This said, the Broncos defense has shown remarkable improvement in the team’s last several games, allowing 13, 14 and 16 points respectively. And, in six Broncos victories of 2013, the Manning-led offense put up 40 and more points; in three of these games more than 50 points, while the Seahawks can claim only two 2013 wins carrying more than 40 points. Data accrued by Broncos and Seahawks receivers + rushers also sheds light on a likely Super Bowl XLVIII outcome, e.g., Broncos receivers have accumulated 55 TD’s during 2013, the Seahawks a lot less, 27. But the Broncos rushers had a total of 16 TD’s, the Seahawks, 14, a closer comparison. Tricky data here is that while the Seahawks were able to rush for more yardage than the Broncos could during NFL-2013, 2,188 yards vs. the Broncos 1,873, the two additional TD’s gained in less time by the Broncos reflects greater rushing efficiency, a superior ability for making the rush count. Furthermore, the Broncos were able to mix passing and running games for a total of 435 first downs during NFL-2013, leveraged for 71 TD’s, while the Seahawks had much fewer, 307 first downs, for 41 TD’s. Comparing QB’s, Seahawks QB Wilson is no slouch, his pass completion rate isn’t far behind Manning’s, 63.1 percent vs. Manning’s 68.3 percent. In sum, the Broncos have an edge, “Unless. . .” . . . // NBA---OF the 30 NBA franchises, nine started NBA-2013/14 with rookie head coaches. Midway into the season, not one of the nine is honchoing a division leading team, and only two are in charge of second position teams, the Eastern Conference/Southeast Division’s 22-19 Atlanta Hawks head coach, Mike Buddenholzer, and Jason Kidd, HC, Eastern Conference/Atlantic Division’s 18-22 Brooklyn Nets. The remaining rookie HC’s are bossing teams that are low in the standings, only one of them above. 500, the Western Conference/Pacific Division’s third place team, the 24-17/.585 Phoenix Suns, led by Jeff Hornacek. The HC now leading a team that is at .500, that’s Dave Joerger, of the West’s Southeast fourth place franchise, the 20-20 Memphis Grizzlies, one of two WC teams led by rookie HC’s that under predecessors finished the previous NBA season in the conference’s top eight franchises, the other being the now WC/Northwest third place team, the 20-21 Denver Nuggets, led by first time HC, Brian Shaw, previous HC, George Karl. Current HC’s of fourth place teams are HC Brad Stevens, of the East/Atlantic’s 15-29 Boston Celtics, and HC Steve Clifford, of the EC/Southeast 19-25 Charlotte Bobcats. Today’s last place rookie HC-led teams are the WC/Pacific’s Sacramento Kings (HC, Mike Malone), and the EC/Atlantic’s 14-28 Philadelphia 76ers (HC, Brett Brown). Were all of these teams strong playoff candidates during NBA 2012/13, there would be a credible argument suggesting dismissal of the “new blood” concept, but most of the nine teams have been middle of the grid and so a status quo with regard to win/loss records has maintained, leaning toward belief that with more experience the rookie HC will lift his team in the standings. Helping to corroborate this is that five of the six division leading teams today are led by experienced head coaches, the two best in the league by the more experienced of the five HC’s . . . NUGGETS, PACERS---THE only division leading franchises that the 20-21 Denver Nuggets haven’t lost a game to this season are the Eastern Conference/Atlantic Division’s 21-20 Toronto Raptors, the leading team with the poorest record among the six division number ones, and the EC/Central’s 33-8 Indiana Pacers, because the Nuggets and the Pacers haven’t met yet and they will tomorrow night. Presently, the Pacers are leading all of the NBA and they have the deepest lead over a second place franchise, the 21-20 Chicago Bulls. But softening and narrowing the difference between the Nuggets and the Pacers is that though the Nuggets have lost to first place team within their division, the 33-10 Oklahoma City Thunder, the Nuggets also defeated the Thunder on January 9, 2014, 101-88. The Thunder has the same number of wins as the Pacers, 33. Also, the Nuggets loss to the entire NBA’s current second best franchise, the 32-10 San Antonio Spurs, was by only two points, 90-88, and the Nuggets loss to the fourth best franchise in the league, the EC/Southwest leading franchise, the 31-12 Miami Heat, was just by three points, 97-94. There is evidence, then, that the Nuggets can prevail vs. the Pacers. END/ml.