NFL: SUPER BOWL, THEN & NOW.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  . 

.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL    ----    LOTS of cliche-phrases can get to be tiresome, to a point where you wish they’d be made to disappear along with Lance Armstrong’s medals, trophies, titles and his lies, for instance, “Everything you always wanted to know about (“_____, whatever”) and were afraid to ask.” So, this page won’t repeat it while presenting facts about (another cliché-phrase:) “the Greatest Show on Earth,” yes, ladies and gentlemen, “the amazing, the one and only, America’s great annual event, “the Super Bowl.”

Our promise is this: to keep the below to what you need to know so the person at the bar next to you can’t resist buying you your next beer, and if you’re a guy surely your spouse, or girl friend, will sigh and give up wanting to pressure you to see a chick-flick during the following weekend. If you’re a wife or girl friend, on Valentine’s Day you might receive a football jersey with the number 18 on back.

            Here’s the bare and spare intel:

            It began in 1967, the first Super Bowl winner being the Green Bay Packers, the first losing team, Kansas City. Green Bay won the following year, beating Oakland. This year will be the forty-seventh Super Bowl, thus the title, “Super Bowl XLVII,” all Super Bowls having been held at major cities across the nation. The cities that have hosted the most Super Bowl challenges are Miami, 10 times, New Orleans, also 10X, this year’s event to be the eleventh for New Orleans.

            Since 1967, of the 15 teams that have won a Super Bowl, 11 have won more than once: Green Bay, Baltimore, Dallas, Miami, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, the N.Y. Giants, Denver Broncos, the Washington Redskins, New England Patriots, and Oakland. Winning but once are Kansas City, and Indianapolis, the Chicago Bears, the St. Louis Rams.

            Eight NFL teams have won the Super Bowl two or more times in a row: Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Miami, San Francisco, Dallas, Denver and New England. Not since Super Bowl XXXIX (2005) has a team won two Super Bowls in a row.

Teams losing a Super Bowl two years in a row are the Minnesota Vikings and the Denver Broncos. The record for losing the most Super Bowls in a row belongs to Buffalo, having lost four times starting 1991. The last Super Bowl outcome that included a team that also lost the previous year occurred in 1994, Buffalo losing to Dallas, 30-13.

Since 1967, Pittsburgh has had the most Super Bowl wins: six.

The highest number of points achieved by a Super Bowl winner has been 55, accrued by San Francisco vs. Denver during Super Bowl XXIV (1972), versus Denver’s 10 points.

No Super Bowl was ever won with less than double digit points, and no losing team of those finishing with only single points has ever dumped with less than the three belonging to Miami during Super Bowl VI (1972) against the 24 gained by winning franchise, Dallas.

Of the 45 players dubbed Super Bowl MVP since 1967, 24 have been quarterbacks, six have been wide receivers, seven have been running backs, two as linebackers, two as safeties, one a defensive end, one a kick returner. Among the Super Bowl QB’s, Green Bay’s Bart Starr is the only QB to win MVP two years in a row. No other Super Bowl QB-MVP of a winning team has been the event’s MVP more than once.

Last year’s Super Bowl winning team? The New York Giants.

For comments and analysis of the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers, the two about to meet on February 3 at New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII, see future postings, this page---sports-notebook.blogspot.com.

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NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVII, SOME BACKGROUND /// WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  . 

.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL    ----    TEAM sports are wars of a different kind, presumed to be safer, of which it’s been argued that American football can often resemble the bang-bang/kill-kill variant (minus the ammo), football’s cap for that being the nation’s Super Bowl, which competes post-season winning franchises from the National Football League’s American Football Conference and the National Football Conference, this year the AFC’s Baltimore Ravens versus the NFC’s San Francisco 49ers.

Though not top-seeded for the year’s NFL playoffs, each conference championship team led its respective division throughout much of the NFL 2012/13 regular season, the Ravens finishing with 10 wins and six losses, the 49ers with 11 wins, four losses and a tie. In the playoffs, the two teams bested franchises that had finished the regular season with more wins than they had, scooting past the Denver Broncos, Atlanta Falcons, the Houston Texans and the New England Patriots.

When it comes to the wide array of football’s game-winning competencies, the differences between the Ravens and the 49ers are hardly that which eliminates all doubt about which will defeat the other, though in some key categories the Ravens have a slight edge if data is any indication of likelihood of victory, weak though data can sometimews be up against that which cannot be explained by numbers.

Anyway, of the Ravens regular season wins were two four-game winning streaks. The 49ers accrued five two-game winning streaks. Two of the Ravens regular season wins reached higher than 40 points each, including a 55-20 spread vs. the Oakland Raiders. The 49ers put up 40+ points in each of two wins during the regular season. The Ravens top five regular season and playoff wins totaled more than 170 points, while the 49ers accrued more than 190 points from its top five wins.

Too, the Ravens average gain in yards per individual play has been around 7.1, the 49ers, 7.7, and number of first downs won by the Ravens and the 49ers during the playoffs exceeded 35 each, both having accumulated more than 350 net rushing yards, with average number of ball possession minutes for the 49ers, 38 minutes, for the Ravens, 25. When it comes to total net yards passing, the Ravens are ahead with 600+ vs. the 49ers having accumulated under 500.

And, comparing quarterback pass completion ratings during the playoffs, we have Ravens QB Joe Flacco and the 49ers Colin Kaepernick nearly identical, each having hit their targets more than half of passes attempted.

An upshot from the above-cited numbers, then, is that the Ravens/49ers Super Bowl XLVII contest could be very close, unless .  .  .

.  .  .  OMG, What in heck just happened?

Approximating real war, football has its suddenly appearing variables, “the lightning-quick unexpected,” e.g., no-one could have predicted the kick and punt returns that became touchdowns for Denver during the playoffs, or that Ravens QB Flacco’s 70 yard pass during overtime vs. the Broncos + a Ravens field goal that followed; or, that the retiring/aging Ravens linebacker, Ray Lewis, would put up more than 30 tackles during the playoffs; or, that 49ers QB Kaepernick would accumulate more than 165 yards rushing in a winning game, 69 of which were for a TD.

If data can prove anything, it’s that those unseen occurrences, that “fog of war” releasing confusion onto a battlefield, can dominate, maintain, bring even an obvious underdog to victory. Whether it will be a Ravens or 49ers win, is surely anyone’s guess.

*          *          *

WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC  ---   So what if the International Olympics Committee eliminated baseball from Olympic competition? Hey, fans and sportswriters, we have the WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC, about to occur for the third time (it’s to be held every three years), and in a much better organized manner than that which the IOC could provide when responsible for more than 30 other sports, the WBC best for fans as well as for ballplayers from sixteen countries---Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, China-Taipei (Taiwan), Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea. Mexico, Puerto Rico, Spain, the United States, Venezuela. 

Starting March 2 and until March 19, teams will divide into four “Pools” for three rounds of elimination play, each round at several venues. Round One will occur at Japan, at China-Taipei (Taiwan), Puerto Rico, and at Phoenix, Arizona. Round Two will happen at Japan, and at Miami, Florida. Round Three (Championship Round), will be at AT&T Park, San Francisco, California. Last WBC winning team (2009), was Japan .  .  .  

If there’s a downside to the WBC, it’s that the event (39 games, viewed on the MLB Network) will occur at the same time that Major League Baseball teams conduct their spring training, which is why such players as Mike Trout of the L.A. Angels have declined joining America’s WBC roster, and a downside for the U.S. is that several All-Star and MVP players will choose to play for their country of origin, e.g., the Detroit Tigers third baseman, Miguel Cabrera, choosing to play for Venezuela.

Here’s the breakout into “Pools” ---

Pool A: Japan, China, Cuba and Brazil. Pool B: Korea, the Netherlands, Australia and Taipei-China (Taiwan). Pool C: Venezuela, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Spain. Pool D: Mexico, Italy, Canada, the United States. 

Below is the U.S. WBC team Roster, established by, and to be managed by, former New York Yankee and Los Angeles Dodger manager, Joe Torres---      

Player	Pos.	Team
Mark Teixeira	1B	Yankees
Brandon Phillips	2B	Reds
Jimmy Rollins	SS	Phillies
David Wright	3B	Mets
Joe Mauer	C	Twins
Ryan Braun	LF	Brewers
Adam Jones	CF	Orioles
Giancarlo Stanton	RF	Marlins
Ben Zobrist	INF	Rays
Willie Bloomquist	INF	D-backs
Shane Victorino	OF	Red Sox
Jonathan Lucroy	C	Brewers
J.P. Arencibia	C	Blue Jays
R.A. Dickey	SP	Blue Jays
Ryan Vogelsong	SP	Giants
Derek Holland	SP	Rangers
Kris Medlen	SP	Braves
Craig Kimbrel	RP	Braves
Heath Bell	RP	D-backs
Chris Perez	RP	Indians
Vinnie Pestano	RP	Indians
Luke Gregerson	RP	Padres
Glen Perkins	RP	Twins
Steve Cishek	RP	Marlins
Jeremy Affeldt	RP	Giants
Tim Collins	RP	Royals
Mitchell Boggs	RP	Cardinals

END/ml

NFL: SUPER BOWL XLVII /// NBA: THUNDER VS. NUGGETS.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  . 

.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL    ----   THE miles separating Baltimore, Maryland, and San Francisco, California, are roughly our nation’s greatest distance between two major cities, so much so that you could argue that Super Bowl XLVII will be an Atlantic versus Pacific coast contest, in addition to pitting teams that championed the American and National Conferences of the NFL.

Being held a little more than midway between the oceans at New Orleans, Louisiana, on February 3, 2013, Super Bowl XLVII will top off a 2012/2013 NFL season that was as unpredictable as so much else in America, thus unpredictable within Baltimore and San Francisco and in all of the cities and towns between the two.

An author wrote some years back, “If you want to understand America, then you better learn all that you can about baseball.” That needs an addition---“We’d be very well off to also learn about American football,” of which all Super Bowls are emblematic. The event will capture the biggest American audience of the year, and more than that of the year before.

Several authors of books on the meaning of sports have suggested that through observance of professional football, especially a Super Bowl competition, we Americans re-live the claiming and reclaiming of territory against many difficult “and unpredictable” odds, similar to our 200+ years of growth from east to west, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, from Baltimore to San Francisco, also similar to our claiming and reclaiming desired objectives through our daily tasks.

And, argue analysts, “Football reflects our attempts to defend that which we have laid claim to.” This is under a set of rules, laws, they say, so we accept the fallbacks, the penalties for error. Read American history, it’s all there.

And, more than one author writing about sports will tell us that we Americans know how to charge ahead within the forests of unpredictability. Within emblematic American football, who’d have thought a year ago that last year’s Super Bowl winner, the New York Giants, wouldn’t reach the 2012/13 playoffs, or that the Dallas Cowboys would be looking almost horizontally at below-the-margin teams such as the Cleveland Browns, the Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars? Given all the hoopla from the American political right and the stubbornness shown in Washington vs. White House claims, no American majority thought that Barack Obama would win a second term with the edge that he achieved over Republican candidate, Mitt Romney.

Or, that the New York Jets would obtain so little value from quarterback, Tim Tebow, or that the San Diego Chargers would fail “to charge” and decide to free up head coach, Norv Turner?

Or, that QB Peyton Manning would, after neck operations, lead the Denver Broncos into a top-seeded playoff slot?

Or, that NFL rookies Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson would lead their respective teams into the post-season?

            And, not many NFL observers were picking the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers as the AFC and NFC winners heading to New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII.

            The east/west face-off will include competing QB’s of different methods and styles, for instance, the Ravens Joe Flacco, master of the deep pass and of timing his passes in unison with a receiver’s speed and positioning. Flacco’s a QB with a fast eye for first down options, who has passed for almost twice the number of gained post-season yards than those achieved by 49er QB, Colin Kaepernick, who has an edge ahead of QB Flacco when it comes to fast escape and evasion during an enemy’s pass rush, executing the short and wide throw, commanding the wide angle rush as well as toe-and-heel/down- the-middle.

But in 2012/13, Kaepernick hasn’t faced Ravens linebacker, Ray Lewis, tackler supreme, leading a defense that could suppress Kaepernick’s best drive-ahead qualities. That said, the Ravens offense will be facing one of the NFL’s top defense tackles, Justin Smith, and two of the NFL’s best linebackers, Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith.

Of course, more on Super Bowl XLVII and the Ravens and 49ers on this page---Friday, January 25, and in future columns up until and after February 3.

*          *          *

NBA:    THE 32-9 Oklahoma City Thunder’s 118-121 OT loss to the Denver Nuggets on Sunday, January 20, explained two things, (1) Why, in spite of the loss, the Thunder is eight games ahead of the Nuggets as the Western Conference’s Northwest Division leading franchise, and (2) Why the Nuggets are closing in on the Thunder and could be a lot less than the eight games behind the Thunder that they are now.

Without question, the Thunder’s forward, Kevin Durant, and guard, Russell Westbrook, have emerged as point per game stars and the nexus of Thunder playmaking, Durant averaging around 29 ppg, and Westbrook, 22.7 ppg, this while the next highest ppg averages within the Thunder lay between 14 and 12 ppg, dropping to a low of 7 ppg among all other Thunder players.

But were Durant and Westbrook holders of ppg averages roughly the same as that of most NBA forwards and guards, they’d be putting up half the points they now do per challenge, indicating that the Thunder would, if still in first place of the Western Conference’s Northwest Division, be no more than a game or two ahead of the Nuggets.

An aside here is this: of the Thunder’s starters and bench, only four players have obtained double-digit ppg, while though the Denver’s top average ppg holders, forward Danilo Gallinari, and guard, Ty Lawson, have attained much less than Durant and Westbrook (16 and 14 ppg, respectively), six Nuggets players have achieved double-digit ppg and the next highest are nine ppg belonging to guard, Andre Miller, and eight ppg for center, Kosta Koufos, and eight ppg for guard/forward, Jordan Hamilton. The Nuggets team ppg average is therefore only a few points behind that of the Thunder---around 102 versus 105.

Moreover, the Nuggets 2012/13 stats reflect an overall performance that exceeds that of all opposing teams, including the Thunder, although comparing the Nuggets key stats with that of the Thunder puts the Thunder ahead, largely due to shooting categories fattened up by Durant and Westbrook; yet the Nuggets 102 team ppg  average is greater than the 100 ppg re. all opponents, Thunder included. That’s from a total of 4,313 points prior to Sunday’s Nuggets/Thunder match, vs. 4,217 total points put up by all Nuggets opponents since the start of the 2012/13 season.

Too, the Nuggets are ahead of all opponents for the year in number of field goals netted, 1,659 over 1,583, in bucketed free throws, 737 against 698, in most offense rebounds, 583 over 535, and in defense rebounds, 1,383 vs. 1,242; also, in number of assists, 985 vs. 973. Furthermore, by halftime during Sunday’s contest, the Nuggets led the Thunder, 26-25; third Q, 81 over 79. Within the first Q, which ended as a tie, 25-25, Kevin Durant was held to only two points by the Nuggets defense.

And, while the 32-9 Thunder record is now second within the NBA’s Western Conference behind the 33-11 San Antonio Spurs, tied nearly with 32-10 Los Angeles Clippers, the Nuggets have moved three games up from Western Conference Northwest Division third place team, the 22-19 Utah Jazz, and holds at sixth place among the Western Conference’s 15 franchises.

The Thunder accrued additional losses in January, and encouraging for the Nuggets is that between now and a next meeting vs. the Thunder on March 1st, the Nuggets will play 16 games that, except vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, won’t be against fellow division teams, and excluding the Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets will be against franchises with lower win/loss records than the Nuggets have put up during the current season, six vs. teams now at the bottom of their divisions---the Kings, Hornets, Cavaliers, Raptors, the Wizards and the Bobcats, a small entry of doubt here being the recent 112-108 loss by the Nuggets to the NBA’s now worst team, the 9-30 Wizards.

END/ml   

NBA: Teams Above The Rest; Denver Nuggets // NFL: Conference Playoffs.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  . 

.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NBA:    AS of today, with 31 wins and eight losses the Oklahoma City Thunder leads the NBA’s Western Conference’s Northwest Division, the Western Conference and the entire NBA. The Western Conference’s Los Angeles Clippers (Pacific Division) hold at second place within the NBA, having 31 wins over nine losses, and the West’s San Antonio Spurs (Southwest Div.) hang at third within the full league, 30 over 11.

The Eastern Conference’s Miami Heat (Southeast Div.) sits at fourth place within the NBA, with 25 wins and 12 losses, and the East’s New York Knicks (Atlantic Div.) are holding at fifth place, with 25/13, while the West’s Memphis Grizzlies (2d place, SW Div.) hang at sixth, having 24 wins over its 13 losses, and the East’s Indiana Pacers (Central Div.) are seventh, at 23/15.

Except for the second-place Grizzlies, the above-cited franchises are division leading teams. When the NBA 2011/12 season ended in June, three of the above seven teams held the same first place positions within their divisions as they hold now---the Thunder, the Spurs and the Heat. The remaining four teams finished second within their respective divisions, while today all seven teams represent the only NBA franchises with records above .600.

BUT---13 NBA teams are below .500, each with more losses than wins after playing between 36 and 41 games per. This means that the NBA is just over the hump and viable, having 17 franchises above .500 (more wins than losses) as half the current NBA season is about to be over.

Of note is that of the 10 of 17 teams with records less than the top seven listed above, eight are still below .600 while being above .500, bringing the total average of the NBA’s 30 franchises to between .570 and .590 when added to the equation are the records of the top seven franchises. This total average is quite close to the current win/loss record of the West’s Northwest Division second place team, the now 24/17, .585 Denver Nuggets, eight games behind the Thunder and three ahead of third place/Northwest Division, Utah Jazz (21/19, .513).

As a franchise that’s now at fifth place inside the West, and ninth within the full league, the Nuggets can be said to be representative of the full NBA when it comes to an average portrait of league skills and accomplishments, reflecting the best and also the marginal of both East and West, emblematic of the entire league’s competencies, the good and the bad.

On the brighter side, and though of a different Conference, the Nuggets win/loss record approximates that of three division leading teams of today, the 25/13 Knicks, the 25/12 Heat and the 24/16 Pacers, and exceeds the win/loss records of five second place franchises (both Conferences). Also on the bright end, the Nuggets have higher total averages than all of its opponents to date with regard to major categories of basketball competence, e.g., more points per game, plus successful field goal completions and of free throws, of successful offense and defense rebounds, of assists and of total number of ppg gained since the current season began.

Too, since the season started, the Nuggets have completed three four game winning streaks and a three game winning streak, and of its 17 losses 12 were with 100 or more points against each opposing team, one of those losses a high of 116 points.

The Nuggets negatives aren’t severe; they include a low three-point FG completion total compared with all opponents---around 242 netted vs. the apprx. 330 averaged by opponents, and fewer blocks and fewer steals than achieved by opponents, though these spreads aren’t very wide.

And, in some of its worst losses that have been weeks apart, the Nuggets gave up so many points that feared is performance inconsistency of a sort that could keep the Denver team from easy playoff entry. In October, the Nuggets were defeated by the Philadelphia 76ers, 84-75, next night by the Orlando Magic, 102-89, then in mid-November by the Spurs, 126-100, two weeks later by the L.A. Lakers, 122-103.

Also, each month since the season began, the lowest number of netted field goals accrued by the Nuggets in a single game has wavered between 28 and 31, while the highest number has been 47 per month through December, now 44 for January. Not that these numbers are bad. Rather, the high/low difference per month signals a status quo, a differential that hasn’t changed much. In effect, there hasn’t been solid high improvement in FG points as the season has moved forward, FG’s being the biggest contributor to a win, more precisely not when it comes to raising the high and the low FG ppg to higher numbers. Across October and November, the Nuggets ppg average was 98, in December it was 102, for January as of today, 94. These are sound numbers, but they haven’t reflected high and consistent growth, they haven’t said here’s a team that could be up from its NBA mid-range status, sooner than later close in number of wins to the Thunder and the Spurs.

Yet the numbers advise that the Nuggets will remain playoff-bound, just not at the head of the class without upticks in number of netted two- and three-pointers, blocks and steals (per game).

*          *          *

NFL:  This weekend will complete the 2012/13 NFL playoff story. Two of four NFL franchises will achieve respective Conference victories and advance to the Super Bowl (February 3, New Orleans). From the American Conference, it’ll be the Ravens or the Patriots; from the National it’ll be the Falcons or the 49ers.

Each of the four teams have enough strengths and vulnerabilities to keep the best among football analysts unsure as to which will win. The Ravens have a Ray Lewis-led defense, within which Lewis has executed more than 25 playoff tackles, and Ravens quarterback, Joe Flacco, has thrown long to his favored receivers in ways that not even the Denver Broncos number two NFL defense managed to get in the way enough times, e.g., that 70 yard arc-ing missile that up-ended the Broncos in playoff overtime. Add, the Flacco-wide receiver, Anquan Boldin, for more than the successful deep pass.

But the Patriots defense is perhaps the best of nearly impenetrable “mobile” defenses in the NFL, and Patriots QB Tom Brady’s pass completion rate is higher than Flacco’s. Also, the stats between the two teams do not show a differential so much more than 50 percent that it becomes obvious which of the two teams can win, e.g, the Ravens net yard passing gains being 593 across two games and the Patriots 335 for one game, and Ravens net rushing yards gained being 325, the Patriots having 122, the Ravens total first downs for its two events being 39, the Patriots re. one game, 24.

For the 49ers to beat the Falcons, required will be a repeat of 49er QB Colin Kaepernick’s amazing performance of last week vs. the Green Bay Packers (a 45-31 win that included 440 yards gained and four touchdowns, 181 of those yards from rushes), plus defense plays similar to that which kept Packers QB, Aaron Rogers, from sufficient pass completions, though the Falcons have shown to have one of the more effective pass protection units in the NFL throughout the regular season and during its one playoff game.

Like the Ravens and the Patriots, the post-season differentials among the two National Conference teams re. net passing and rushing yards gained, and first downs achieved, aren’t wide enough to indicate a likely winner, though some analysts and fans could be giving the Falcons an edge in that the Atlanta team defeated two of the four teams that the 49ers lost to by wide margins during the regular and post seasons, the New York Giants (last year’s Super Bowl winner) and the Seattle Seahawks, twice.

Not taking the easy way out here, no picks this time---it’s anyone’s guess. As that Ravens OT victory vs. the Broncos demonstrated, “NFL expectations can turn over in a matter of seconds, changing predicted outcomes.”

END/ml

NFL: Playoffs---“Weekend Departures” // ALL SPORTS:  “Books About Sports, 2012.”

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  . 

.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL   ---   WORDS can measure up for kills against grief but only part of the way. Lose an NFL playoff game and, as Denver Broncos quarterback, Peyton Manning, commented after his team’s playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, “It stings, because it’s supposed to.”

The Ravens defeated the AFC’s number-one seeded Broncos, 38-35, which could have been avoided had Denver’s offense built up enough insurance against theft of a lead even in final seconds of a challenge. That insurance may have existed were it not for a bad Broncos kick, two interceptions, a call by Broncos head coach, John Fox, that had his offense go passive instead of working from its usual cool aggression, and from the Broncos secondary employing zone coverage instead of one-on-one/on-the-man shadowing, which allowed a receiver to catch a deep throw by Ravens QB, Joe Flacco.

An overarching and obviously accurate post-loss comment has been that the Broncos defense allowed the Ravens to stay victory-relevant in the game, preventing the Broncos from maintaining a leading edge that couldn’t be matched. During regulation, each quarter ended in a tie, but the Denver offense would have been behind “big time” were it not for kick and punt returns by Broncos wide receiver, Trindon Holliday, which delivered 14 points for the Broncos.

Surprisingly, the Ravens defense was enough of a moving fortress to hold Denver’s running backs from the extended yardage usually theirs for first downs leading to end-zone occupation.

And, a Ravens secondary kept Manning’s favored wideouts from sufficient freedom for the Manning TD throw (Manning holds the 2012 record for most TD throws during a regular season).  

            Exit, the NFC’s Green Bay Packers, having lost to the NFC’s San Francisco 49ers, 45-31. Say goodbye to the AFC’s Houston Texans, their having lost 41-28 to the AFC’s New England Patriots, and to the NFC’s Seattle Seahawks, losing 30-28 to the NFC’s Atlanta Falcons. These now away franchises had fine regular seasons, each close in skills and stats to the Broncos and to the teams that beat them over the weekend. During the regular season, these teams built a series of wins that demonstrated command of superb football prowess, signaling that either could be playoff-viable next season.

Meanwhile, and still in the running for a Super Bowl shot, are the 49ers, largely from another unexpected turn, from a QB running for more than 170 yards, 69 of which bought a TD, leading to its victory over the Seahawks. The NFC’s Atlanta Falcons weekend defeat of the Seahawks was expected, but with less difficulty, a score with a greater spread.

During the final AFC playoff round, the Ravens will challenge the Patriots. For the NFC elimination game, it’ll be the Falcons vs. the 49ers. Super Bowl XVII (February 3, New Orleans) will welcome the winners (See our Friday column for analysis and picks).   

Yes, losing is the ticket that can put a team on the grief bus, and surely the best of athletes need to ride that bus after a key loss. The trick is to know when to get off, know where one’s stop is. Broncos head coach knows and understands this, and that’s why his earliest comment to his team after its defeat to the Ravens was, “Don’t let this loss define who you are.”

*          *          *

Books Re. Sports, 2012

DREAM TEAM, by: Jack McCallum, Ballantine Books----it’s about the 1992 U.S. Olympics team that included Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley and Larry Bird.

OVER TIME, by: Sportswriter legend, Jack Deford, Atlantic Books---his life and times covering all sports.

SPORTS & THE HEROIC, by: Marvin Leibstone, XLIBRIS books---a primer re. American sports (the proverbial good, bad and ugly, and what it could mean for enhancement of our daily lives).

CALICO JOE, by: John Grisham, fiction; about baseball rivalry and redemption, being wrong at one’s game and then being right (making amends before too late).

These are available thru barnes&noble.com, Amazon.com, XLIBRIS.com and at or through nearly all bookstores.

END.

NFL: Playoffs, Jan. 12-13  //  MLB: Fame, Cooperstown

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  . 

.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL   ---   TOMORROW and Sunday, eight NFL teams will do battle in order to advance during the 2012/13 playoffs---four will survive to be at war next week. Within the NFL’s American Football Conference, it will be the Denver Broncos against the Baltimore Ravens, and the Houston Texans will be up against the New England Patriots. The National Football Conference will pit the Green Bay Packers against the San Francisco 49er’s, while the Atlanta Falcons attempt to undo the Seattle Seahawks.

In all eight games, exceptional football savvy will be among the several differences underpinning a win, along with team exploitations of their own strengths and a solid dampening of their vulnerabilities. Part of that savvy will be the ability to transition to new ideas when planned plays stop working. Make no mistake, each of the eight teams will be trying at the outset to cause disorientation, hoping to take opponents off their game, bringing enough chaos and confusion to where, say, repeated successful pass rushes cause a quarterback’s timing and a receiver’s ability to connect with that to be lost, which is not something that can happen often to Broncos quarterback, Peyton Manning, and to Manning’s favored wide receivers, Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, or to Manning’s reliance on running backs, Willis McGahee (if he plays, having come back recently from an injury) and Knowshon Moreno. It is these athletes that the Baltimore Ravens will have to deny purchase of time and space. Not easy, in that the Ravens have a fairly readable defense, relying more on speed and power for employment of standard tactics than on canny and surprising moves. Anyway, should this defense style of the Ravens transform for a surprising set of tactics, a Manning skill is his ability to read “at just a glance” what a defense may be up to.

On paper, the Ravens seem to have little chance of beating the Broncos. The Denver franchise puts the Baltimore team in the dust when it comes to total number of points accrued in the latter half of the NFL regular season, in total number of first downs, net rushing yards and net passing yards, in total average number of ball possession minutes gained during each game, and just about every other statistic that contributes to a winning record, to include the big lead that QB Manning has over Baltimore QB, Joe Flacco, re. pass completions and touchdown passes..

Yet QB Flacco and his favored receivers are still close enough in quality to the Manning + ensemble to exploit the occasional opportunity and streak ahead if Denver’s linemen, among them, Von Miller and Elvis Dumervill, fail to be “on their game,” and if Denver’s cornerbacks fail at going into action as speedily as during Denver’s last five games should Denver’s pass rush unit fail to undo the opposing QB. These being unlikely occurrences, this page’s pick for Saturday is a Broncos win by at least 10.

To finish off the Patriots, the Texans defense will have to be as effective as it was during the first half of the regular season, thus capable of outwitting, if not outstorming, Patriots QB, Tom Brady and Brady’s preferred receivers, keeping the Patriots scoring under 14. With enough ball possession time, Texans QB, Matt Schaub, who has a slightly higher pass completion rate than Brady, can top that score with a single touchdown and multiple field goals, providing that the Texans defense can deny Patriot first downs repeatedly, a difficult task considering that during the regular season the Patriots posted one of the highest total number of first downs within both the AFC and the NFC. When adding to the win/lose equation the exceptionally mobile and nearly impenetrable Patriots defense, an appropriate take on the outcome becomes a Patriots win, by seven.

The key to a Packers win over the 49er’s will likely  be number of ball possession minutes allowing Packers QB, Aaron Rodgers, wide receiver Jordy Nelson and running back, DuJuan Harris, to reach TD and field goal opportunities in spite of a lot of this obtained from third down conversions to first downs. Tough for the 49er’s will be a pro-active Packers defense, in effect, a defense that puts an opposing quarterback and receivers on the defensive rather than being in control of their planned assault, a defense that can force an opposing team to rely on the punt or experience turnovers minimizing the number of first downs that an opponent will need to occupy an end-zone. The 49er’s pass protection will be crucial if the San Francisco team is to rack up any points, enabling QB, Colin Kaepernick, to fire off short passes, engage RB LaMichael James or rush the ball himself, implementing a steadily moving offense via short gains. This page’s pick? Packers by a TD and FG.

The Seahawks have proven to have remarkable flexibility, adjusting plays according to the strengths and weaknesses noted about opposing teams, and so strategy vs. the Falcons will be a tough assignment for Seattle’s head coach and QB, Russell Wilson, in that the Falcons have so few vulnerabilities. Alongside the qualities shown by the Denver Broncos, the Falcons have been a 2012/13 close-to-perfection football franchise. Falcons QB Matt Ryan’s pass completion rate of 68 percent is higher than that of Denver’s QB, Peyton Manning, and that of the Patriots QB, Tom Brady, and Ryan’s total yards gained to date exceeds 4,700, while Russell Wilson’s total yards gained remains below 3,500. So, the Seahawks highest priority will probably be to curb QB Ryan’s prowess via standard tactics, therefore use of a secondary to stay between a receiver and the football, and linemen limiting a running back to 2.0 or fewer yards per rush. A likely outcome? Falcons ahead, by 13.

All of which brings us to the possibility of an AFC shootout between the Broncos and the Patriots, the NFC with a Packers vs. Falcons challenge.

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MLB ---   THERE’s a myth about a warrior who, after climbing for many years,  reaches a prized summit. When he started the ascent, it was to beat all others to the top. Now, having summitted without any technical aids, that is, having “free-climbed,” he is crowned king of the world’s steepest hill by a warrior-God. But instead of staying at the summit to meet and slay a number of foes that came atop earlier because they took advantage of pulleys and stationary ladders, the new warrior-king flings his sword and his crown into a cloud and strolls down the other side of the mountain, never to be seen again.

Surely the myth is about retiring from a long effort “satisfied,” having found victory in the struggle more than in the achievement, the real prize being in the ascent and not in being at the top and slaying others, not in obtaining a title and wearing a crown. Well, it may seem excessively dramatic today to say that the departing warrior-king could be a reflection of certain professional baseball retirees, athletes who chose to stay clean during the steroid era, who if the Hall of Fame wants them now, fine; if not, then that’s okay, too---they played baseball to play baseball.

Glory-seeking isn’t a crime; it’s how one goes about it that has hit nerves within the American Baseball Writers Association that decides whether Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and other steroid-using ballplayers deserve praise at Cooperstown. Presently, those steroid-using athletes are also at the other side of the mountain. If grieving there about the recent decision that they NOT be inducted into the Hall of Fame, the Cooperstown gatekeepers response is that those baseball retirees haven’t yet seen the difference between the pure ascent-motivated warrior and the warrior more interested in using illegal aids to slay others, gain a title and a crown.

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