NFL: The Playoffs, “Part One” // NBA: A New Kind of Dominance, “Maybe”

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.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NFL  ---  LET’s talk about this weekend, when the 2012/13 NLF playoffs kick in, when eight NFL franchises will compete to be playing seven days later for a go at next month’s Super Bowl February 3, being held at New Orleans. Meanwhile, four teams will exploit their Byes this weekend, preparing for challenges from the Round One/Wild Card winners---the AFC’s Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots; and the NFC’s San Francisco 49ers and the Atlanta Falcons .  .  .  AFC Round One (Saturday, January 5) has the Cincinnati Bengals facing the Houston Texans, and the Indianapolis Colts the Baltimore Ravens.  .  .  NFC’s Round One will pit the Minnesota Vikings versus the Green Bay Packers (Saturday, January 5), and the Seattle Seahawks vs. the Washington Redskins (Sunday, January 6).

So, which of this weekend’s four AFC teams will be facing the Broncos and the Patriots during a later round, and which of the NFC four will be challenging the 49ers and the Falcons?

Bengals & Texans (AFC).  Last post-season, the Bengals were put away by the Texans. We could define the Bengals as having a revenge mission, an extra dose of impetus atop performances from above-the-margin Bengals quarterback, Andy Dalton, and his best receiver, A.J. Green, the two largely a reason why the Bengals lifted to a Wild Card berth this year, beating the Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers consecutively as the regular season closed. But the Texans can still reconstruct a defense and offset the performance downslide that the team has experienced since November, the Texans losing to three teams that have risen to the playoffs partly from those losses---the Patriots, Vikings and Colts. With the Texans returning to their earlier field dominance from pass rush improvements and improved secondary pass stops and tackles, they can control the game with a leading score from kickoff on, otherwise it’ll be the Bengals going forward from early first period points.

Colts & Ravens (AFC).   The Colts are an opposite of the Texans, in that they went from a poor season start and picked up steam midway through, with rookie QB (first round pick) Andrew Luck leading an argument along with the Redskins Robert Griffin III and Seattle’s Russell Wilson that 2012 was football’s “Year of the Rookies.” The Colts defense is a close enough match-up with that of the Ravens, signaling a tough duel between Luck and the Ravens QB, Joe Flacco, the latter QB inconsistent this year---Flacco will have to do better than during that 37-14 December Ravens loss to the Broncos in order to best the Colts.

Vikings & Packers (NFC).  Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will have to be the QB that he was in 2011 if he’s to help drive the Packers into more post-season competition, which is doable---he’s got the best NFL-passer rating, and his other stats suggest that he’s still the NFC’s best QB. Vikings QB, Christian Ponder, lags behind Rodgers in many ways, but throughout much of the 2012 season that was offset by star running back, Adrian Peterson. If Rodgers has sufficient pass protection and enough receiver options in those brief moments, the Packers offense will push the Packers ahead of the Vikings

Redskins & Seahawks (NFC).  A belief that long winning streaks define tomorrow’s winner places the Redskins over the less consistent Seahawks---the Redskins won their last seven of the season. But the drama of Redskins rookie QB RGIII facing Seattle’s rookie QB, Russell Wilson, could include numerous “points trade-offs,” thus changes in leads up until the last quarter’s two minute warning, maybe beyond. Both are rookies who have surpassed qualities of more than half of the NFL’s more experienced QB’s, RGIII at a slight disadvantage coming off of a knee injury. And, both teams rank high in the NFL with regard to yards gained from the rush. If there are to be switches to passing tactics, then the game’s dominator could be the team with the better secondary. Both teams having secondary weaknesses, this contest could be Round One’s closest regarding a low final score, with pass rush units keeping QB’s in check more often than not. The rough parity among both teams re. defense and offense could cause this game to be a QB vs. QB contest more than anything else.

Picks (yes, they are suspect):   Texans, Ravens, Packers, Redskins.

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NBA  ---      THERE was concern not long ago that NBA franchises from the richer U.S. cities would dominate professional basketball, and that mid-market teams like the currently 18-16 Denver Nuggets (2d place, Western Conference Northwest Division) would never fare as well as, say, the now 22-8 Miami Heat (Eastern Conference Southeast Division). But today, of top market big city teams, only three lead their divisions, the Miami Heat, the 22-10 New York Knicks (Eastern Conference Atlantic Division) and the 26-9 San Antonio Spurs (Western Conference Southwest Division, and only three are second place teams, the 22-10 Golden State Warriors (Western Conference Pacific Division), the 20-10 Atlanta Hawks (Eastern Conference Southeast Division) and the 17-13 Chicago Bulls (Eastern Conference Central Division). Six of the richer big city teams are below the margin---the 15-16 Los Angeles Lakers (3d place, Western Conference Pacific Division), the 13-20 Dallas Mavericks (last place, Western Conference Southwest Division), the 12-22 Detroit Pistons (4th, Eastern Conference Central Division), the 4-26 Washington Wizards (last, Eastern Conference Southeast Division/worst in the league), the 14-17 Boston Celtics (4th, Eastern Conference Atlantic Division), and the 7-26 Cleveland Cavaliers (last, Eastern Conference Central Division).

Meanwhile, one of the poorer and smaller city teams, the 24-7 Oklahoma City Thunder leads the Western Conference Northwest Division, and the poorer of the California teams, the 25-8 L.A. Clippers, leads the Western Conference’s Pacific Division, while the 19-13 Indiana Pacers are atop the Eastern Conference’s Central Division. And, mid-market teams are holding on to second place positions, among them, the Denver Nuggets, the 17-15 Brooklyn Nets and the 20-9 Memphis Grizzlies.  .  .  What are we to make of all this? That, maybe, the NBA is a lot more fair than in the past. Yet when playoffs commence, the richer big city teams seem to be alive and well---Lakers, Heat, Bulls, Mavericks, et. al.  Last season, the Thunder thundered through, and the Nuggets appeared once again. Given the stats to date, these mid-market teams could go further in the playoffs than last post-season, and eyes seeking 2012/13 playoff dominance will also be focused on the mid-market Clippers, Nets, Pacers and the Grizzlies.

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