NFL: WEEK 11, TURNING POINTS; BRONCOS TO FACE CHIEFS // NBA: A VIEW X 3 (Pacers, Nuggets, Nets).

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: WEEK 11, TURNING POINTS; BRONCOS TO FACE THE CHIEFS // NBA: A VIEW X 3 (Pacers, Nuggets, Nets). . . // . . . NFL---BEING the final set of games before a last lap of NFL-2013 commences (last five challenges of the year, Weeks 12 through 16), Week 11 is metaphorically do-or-die for those franchises positioned today to compete for post-season competition, therefore a chance to lead a conference and get to the Super Bowl, and those franchises that are eager to finish the season at .500 or higher, thus as a winning enterprise. Of course, the former includes the current NFL conference-division leading teams and some close runner-ups, most of these teams arguably playoff-slotted as of now, among these, the American Conference West’s undefeated 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs and the 8-1 Denver Broncos, the AC East’s 7-2 New England Patriots, AC North’s 6-3 Cincinnati Bengals, AC South’s 6-2 Indianapolis Colts, and the National Conference West’s 8-1 Seattle Seahawks, NC South’s 6-2 New Orleans Saints, possibly the NC East’s 5-4 Dallas Cowboys and the NC South’s 5-4 Green Bay Packers, maybe the NC North’s 5-3 Detroit Lions and NC South’s 5-3 Carolina Panthers. That’s 10 franchises for the weeks of play after Week 11, from which teams will select out as occupants for the Super Bowl raceways. Which of these 10 will be lining up as potential post-season candidates for a last run of games starting Week 12? There are three ways to look at this question: FIRST is to know that we can’t really answer the question for sure, because no-one really knows what the football gods will be up to this Sunday and Monday night or in the weeks to follow; SECOND, win/loss records do point to some degrees of likelihood that things can turn out a particular way; THIRD, the competition that the 10 teams will be facing during Week 11, and then during those last pivotal games, such speaks to the difficulties that will be encountered and that could freeze into walls going up, behind the walls the playoff candidates that will be gone prior to the regular season’s last minutes. For example, the Chiefs and the Broncos will be facing off on Sunday, then again on December 1 (Week 13), the outcome affecting both their conference and division leading positions significantly. Too, Monday night’s Patriots/Panthers game will probably be a Patriots win by no fewer than six points, but facing the Broncos during Week 12 could set the Patriots back. Still, the Patriots games after Week 12 will be against teams that they could crush easily, and so the Patriots finishing the season atop the AC East is likely. This condition is similar for the AC North’s Cincinnati Bengals, in that they have only one truly rough hurdle across the weeks ahead, versus the Colts during Week 14. And, except for this match-up with the Bengals, the Colts will be facing only teams that are at or below .500 for the remainder of the season, implying that its division leadership will maintain. The NC West’s Seahawks, this team has enough of a lead to remain division leader and numero uno within the NC-entire but the team could be slowed by a Week 13 match vs. the Saints. As for the Seahawks' Week 11 game vs. the NC North’s 2-7 Minnesota Vikings, the data suggests a big win for the Seahawks, it could be by as much as 24 over six. As for the Saints, it may be rough-going during Sunday’s face-off with the NC West’s second place team, the 6-2 San Francisco 49ers, then the Saints will face the Seahawks during Week 13 and the Panthers twice during Weeks 14 and Week 15. As to the closest match-ups starting Week 11, they could involve the NC East’s Cowboys, the NC North’s Packers and the Lions, in that the majority of their challenges from Week 11 on will be against teams of comparable win/loss records, e.g., in Bye this week but next the Cowboys will face the New York Giants, a game that could go either way. Week 11 will pit the N.Y. Giants against the Packers, also a game for which a winner is quite unpredictable. Moreover, Week 11 has the Lions up against the AC North’s 2-6 Pittsburgh Steelers, another game likely to be quite close, the outcome (our guess:) a tie until one or the other manages a final period field goal. So, from all of this a spotlight emerges on 18 of the NFL’s 32 franchises that are at or beneath .500, only three among these at .500 with a slightly better than marginal chance for rising upward and finishing the season as a winning football team, starting with Week 11---the AC West’s 4-4 San Diego Chargers, set for this Sunday vs. the AC East’s 4-4 Miami Dolphins (could go either way), and the NC West’s 4-4 Arizona Cardinals vs. the 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars, our take the Cardinals, by nine. . . BRONCOS, CHIEFS---Since NFL-2013 began, the Broncos have put up 371 points against opposing franchises, the Chiefs a lot less, 215. Also, the highest number of victory points achieved in a single game this year by the Broncos has been 52, against the Philadelphia Eagles, and highest from the Chiefs has been 28, versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, which would imply Broncos supremacy were it not that the number of points allowed by the Broncos defense to go to other teams this year has been 238, while from the Chiefs it’s been much fewer, 111, with the most given away by the Broncos defense in a single game being 48 (to the Eagles), and most allowed by the Chiefs has been just 17, to the Titans, again vs. the Cleveland Browns. Too, in no game played this season by the Broncos has the Broncos defense allowed fewer than 20 points to an opposing team. In three of its nine games played to date, the Chiefs have given away two, seven and seven respectively. But a fact favoring the Broncos is that of the nine games played by the Chiefs, all but one has been against a team at or below .500, while more of the Broncos wins have been against franchises of higher standings. From these numbers and vaule cited, we can conclude that a Broncos defense unable to keep at or below a 20 point giveaway will jeopardize those points gained by the Broncos offense led by QB Peyton Manning (Note that the higher point wins accrued by the Broncos this year have occurred within Weeks 1 through 5, and that the Broncos last win signaled possibility of offense decline, 28 vs. the now 4-4 San Diego Chargers 20, Week 10). From film of both top and low Broncos offense points scored this year, the Chiefs will know that its defense will need super reliance on the pass rush and on tight coverage of Manning’s receiver options, which advises that the Broncos offense will need equally tight and intense pass protection for QB Manning and especially for Broncos receivers maintaining free space between themselves and the football. This being so, the Broncos have put up 42 touchdowns this season, 33 from pass plays, nine from rushes. The Chiefs have delivered 15, nine from pass plays, seven out of rushes---this data suggests a Broncos points-gained advantage if the Chiefs defense isn’t in high crush mode, and if, of course, the Broncos defense can keep the Chiefs offense from scoring more than 20 points. Given that the Broncos defense has been more within the steady improvement window over the team’s last four competitions than otherwise (though not by much), and meanwhile that the Chiefs offense has scored more than 20 points in three of its last four games, a reasonable take on the Week 11 Broncos/Chiefs outcome is a result similar to that of the Broncos vs. Chargers game of Week 10, Broncos with as many as 28 points, the Chiefs 21, possibly 24. But---whatever the outcome, the rivalry will continue at Kansas City, Week 13, December 1, the result one or the other team being first or second within the NFL-entire, dependent upon what happens between now and then for current NFL number two team, the 8-1/.889 Seattle Seahawks . . . // . . . NBA---Three NBA teams have moved quickly to reflect those that are way up in the standings, those that are somewhere in the middle, and those that are at the back end of the grid. Surely at the top right now are the undefeated Eastern Conference Central Division’s 8-0 Indiana Pacers and the Western Conference Southwest Division’s 8-1 San Antonio Spurs, unexpectedly ahead of the EC Southeast’s now 5-3 Miami Heat and the WC Northwest’s 5-2 Oklahoma City Thunder. Middle of the pack, but at the low end of that category, are the suddenly gaining WC Northwest’s 3-4 Denver Nuggets, and reflective of the better back-enders are the EC Atlantic’s 2-5 Brooklyn Nets. What makes these franchises stand out now are possibilities that they will remain reflective of the element that they are currently a part of, and also that they will be at the front end of their respective elements, possibilities only if the Pacers and Spurs keep playing as they have, and if the Nuggets and the Nets improve steadily without vast leaps forward in the standings. In other words, it’s likely that, barring injuries, the Pacers and Spurs will be winning enough games to stay atop their divisions and as leading conference teams, and that the Nuggets will probably finish the 2013/14 season with 45 or more games (second or third within its division), and that the Nets will top off as being best among the bottom 12 NBA-2013/14 franchises. Predicating this collection of ideas (risky in that we are still in the early days of the NBA season) is that the Pacers can count heavily on its leading shooter, Paul George (around 24 ppg), he ‘s been a paragon of consistency and also a play catalyst for other starters and the Indiana bench that scores fairly high collectively, George also now fourth best scorer in the NBA directly behind the Heat’s LeBron James; and, while the Spurs Tim Duncan and Tony Parker have lost some speed and accuracy (neither is among the top 35 NBA scorers of 2013/14, to date), this team is still best in the NBA at keeping opposing teams from scoring a basket per minute or so wihtin consecutive games. The Nuggets? Only one Nuggets starter is among the top 15 scorers, guard Ty Lawson (21 ppg), significant in that every team now above .500 and either in first or second place of a division is a team with a player among the top 15 shooters, all with 20 or more ppg, but of more reason to envision the Nuggets as a top middle-of-the-pack franchise is the return of forward Wilson Chandler and that new head coach, Brian Shaw, has expanded the team’s teamwork-first priority with plays employing some high risk tactics, for instance, the long arc-ing pass to players in the paint and at the post, with reliance on Lawson first as playmaker, then as shooter. Too, whether planned or not, in recent games there seems to have been repeated emphasis on height but on height above the man under the basket, that is, where the offense is of concern the ball being set higher than the tallest Nuggets player available for teh shot, e.g., Lawson throwing the ball high to Chandler, Chandler hefting it higher to and above forward Kenneth Faried (already a seven-footer), Faried jumping and netting the ball vertically. . . As to the Nets, going from what’s been seen of the team’s new head coach, Jason Kidd, when he was a guard for the old Nets, the Dallas Mavericks and the New York Knicks over a successful player career, it could be that he’s being underestimated in his first days on the job. Knowing whom to delegate floor power to, and when, such takes a lot games (wins and losses both). However, with Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson aboard, it’s likely that strategy, tactics and style will be ironed out and pulsing well enough for the Nets to be leading that back end of the grid if not climbing out of that category fully and clean just before All Star week. END/ml