NFL: WEEK 16, "PIVOTAL"; BRONCOS AT THE FINISH LINE // NBA: TURNABOUT DAYS // DENVER NUGGETS, ARE THEY PLAYOFF-BOUND?

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner. . . // . . . NFL: WEEK 16, "PIVOTAL"; BRONCOS AT THE FINISH LINE // NBA: TURNABOUT DAYS; DENVER NUGGETS, ARE THEY PLAYOFF-BOUND? . . // NFL---THE National Conference West’s 12-2 Seattle Seahawks, the franchise that is best in the league today, will face the 9-5 Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Expected to win by 10 or more, the Seahawks could then finish NFL-2013 not only atop the NC but at the apex of NFL-entire, providing that the American Conference’s now leading franchise, the AC West’s 11-3 Denver Broncos, lose on Sunday to the AC South’s 2-12 Houston Texans, which is unlikely, or if the Broncos lose in the following week to the AC West’s last place 4-10 Oakland Raiders, also unlikely. A safer bet is that the NC and AC end-of-season results won’t get in the way of the Seahawks and Broncos entering the post-season as contenders favored by analysts for Super Bowl billets. Thinking that the two will be respective conference champions and then Super Bowl XLVIII’s match-up is not foolish from any angle, although a wider swath of competition could be the NFL-2013 experience from Week 16 into the heart of the post-season, this from among the remaining six division leading teams, which are the AC East’s 10-4 New England Patriots, the AC North’s 9-5 Cincinnati Bengals, the AC South’s 9-5 Indianapolis Colts, the NC South’s 10-4 New Orleans Saints, the NC East’s 8-6 Philadelphia Eagles and the NC North’s 8-6 Chicago Bears, all under the shadows of elimination that darken the road to any SB. And, for wild card breakthroughs and/or division leadership yet are five second place teams, the AC North’s 8-6 Baltimore Ravens, the AC West’s 11-3 Kansas City Chiefs, the NC West’s 10-4 San Francisco 49ers, the NC North’s 7-6 Green Bay Packers, the NC South’s 10-4 Carolina Panthers. That’s a lot of uncertainty for the last stretch of an NFL season. Not even the best moneyballers, not even the lord$ of La$ Vega$, no-one has it figured precisely. . . BRONCOS---BEING on the cover of Sports Illustrated and being the magazine’s choice for Sportsman Of The Year is high-end gratification for Peyton Manning, which he’d trade away in a heartbeat for a Super Bowl win as QB for the now 11-3 Denver Broncos, doubly rewarding if Manning can get to compete for that goal after defeating the now 9-5 Indianapolis Colts, his former team that had let him go after 14 loyal years. Not that climbing over the also 11-3 Kansas City Chiefs, or the 10-4 New England Patriots, or the 9-5 Cincinnati Bengals, wouldn’t be past challenges to cherish while on the way to New Orleans for SB XLVIII, a reasonable guess being that the Broncos would then be facing the Seattle Seahawks, maybe the New Orleans Saints, possibly the Carolina Panthers, or the San Francisco 49ers. BUT---starting with game one of the playoffs, can the Broncos do what a great Samurai facing 50,000 enemy does, defeat one at a time until it is last team standing and that would be the men from Denver? Keep in mind that last year’s post-season loss to the Baltimore Ravens, which cost the Broncos a trip to the SB as other than spectators, that was from a fluke, a Ravens QB Joe Flacco pass that was of the sort that has less than a two percent chance of receivership, yet it happened, robbing Manning and the Broncos of a chance to defeat the 49ers for the Lombardi trophy. And, Manning-year 2012 wasn’t as good as Manning-year 2013. So, let’s look at Sunday’s Broncos versus Texans, the Broncos having won almost as many 2013 games as the Texans have lost. In two of the Texans losses, only three points per each occurred against opposing teams that scored more than 20. Since Week 3, the Texans haven’t won a game, that’s 12 L’s in a row, during which the Texans have given away more than 380 points to their victors. Yet in that period, the Broncos defense, which has been marginal throughout the season, gave away almost 310 points, this difference not one that the Broncos can be giddy over. Also, the 7-7 San Diego Chargers lists among one of two teams that the Texans have managed to defeat this year. During Week 14, the Chargers defeated the Broncos, 27-20, and the second team that the Texans prevailed against this season, the 5-9 Tennessee Titans, they managed to take 28 points away from the Broncos during a Week 13 game, which was the second most points allowed by the Broncos to an opposing team since NFL-2013 began. Still, if the Broncos offense is “on” this Sunday, if it is at the capacity displayed by Manning and company during the Broncos 11 wins, then the Texans will surely lose. A point to be taken here is that a Broncos defense allowing the Texans to own 20 or more points within three periods on Sunday, such will definitely characterize the presumed Broncos victory as a tough haul; it won’t be as easy as was last week’s Seahawks 23-0 victory over the New York Giants and the Colts 25-3 win vs. the Texans. . . NBA---IT took only three days for the Oklahoma City Thunder to leave second position for the lead within the Western Conference Northwest, within the WC itself and inside the entire NBA, pushing the East’s first position and the East’s Central Division first place Indiana Pacers to second position inside the full NBA. The remaining four division leading franchises, the 20-5 San Antonio Spurs (WC Southwest), the 18-9 L.A. Clippers (WC Pacific), the 12-15 Boston Celtics (EC Atlantic) and the 19-6 Miami Heat (EC Southeast), they add to a list of six top teams reflecting a status quo, in that each finished the previous NBA season within the top 10 of the NBA’s 30 teams. How secure are these leading franchises after each has played between 23 and 27 games to date? Not very---only two have substantial leads over their division second position teams, the Pacers being 20-5 over the 13-14 Detroit Pistons, and the 19-6 Miami Heat above the 14-12 Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder is but one win ahead of second place team, the 22-5 Trail Blazers. Eighteen NBA teams are still under .500, while nine are above .600, four of which are at .800 and higher, the .840 Thunder, .815 Trail Blazers, .800 Spurs, and the .800 Pacers. Among the six third position teams, the 15-10 Dallas Mavericks and the 14-12 Golden State Warriors are the two that added wins to their record in the past three days. . . // NUGGETS---THIS Denver NBA team, now 14-10/.583, has been to the playoffs nine years straight, and only once since 2007 have they reached the second round. Given the number of NBA teams that year after year fail to make the playoffs, the Nuggets surely rank just below teams that make the second playoff round and get to the finals, which is like being at the podium after finishing third in a big race that included 30 cars. Can this year be any different for the Nuggets, can they get to the playoffs by playing as they have been since the 2013/14 season began? A positive note is that only twice since the current season began have the Nuggets NOT followed a win with a win. They seem to be winning streak-prone, having won seven in a row November 21 through December 3, and three straight earlier in November. And, the Nuggets have not had a loss with fewer than 88 points (just twice), and no deficit within a loss greater than 15 points (to the Trail Blazers, 113-98, November 1). Also, in 14 of 23 games played the Nuggets managed to score more than 100 points, highest being 117 vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. Too, five of the Nuggets players have already accrued double-digit ppg averages, and as a team the Nuggets have a higher team ppg average over all opposing franchises, 102.1 ppg over 98.9 ppg. In addition, for more than a month the Nuggets have advanced above opposing teams in number of netted field goals, 3-pointers, free throws, and in number of rebounds, blocks, steals and assists. However, there’s a factor hard to assess and predict a future for, this: “The rate of games won vs. losses as a season progresses.” For the 82 games that the Nuggets will complete on the day that the current season ends, 50 wins is the magic number if the Nuggets are to obtain a playoff berth easily. Right now, with 24 games already over, the team’s 14-10 record with 58 games left to play is a pace that can reach 50 Nuggets wins by April 16, which is the day of the Nuggets last 2013/14 regulation game (vs. Golden State). In other words, the Nuggets current win/loss pace can yield 28 wins within the next 48 games that the Nugget must play, which means that the Nuggets will have accrued 42 wins from 62 games played and can then win eight of the rest that have to be played, total by season’s end: “50 wins,” which is what can get a team to the playoffs. The next and harder question is, “Can the Nuggets maintain its current win/loss pace?” Between now and the end of 2013, are six Nuggets challenges only two of which are against weaker franchises, the 11-13 New Orleans Pelicans and the 10-15 Memphis Grizzlies. The five other matches include two first position teams, the 19-6 Miami Heat and the 18-9 L.A. Clippers, and two teams that have been winning as much or more than the Nuggets have, the 14-10 Phoenix Suns and the 14-12 Golden State Warriors; and from January 1 through January 31 the Nuggets will be facing three top franchises, the 12-15 Boston Celtics, the 20-5 Indiana Pacers and the 22-5 Portland Trail Blazers. That’s seven hard challenges. If these become losses for the Nuggets, the team’s 14-10 win/loss pace will slow and diminish as a rate of progress, making it difficult for the Nuggets to achieve the desired 50 for playoff candidacy. For the Nuggets, winning the hard seven now through January 31 is crucial if the team is to obtain playoff-candidacy. Also, as to whether or not the Nuggets can get to the playoffs second round, the answer could lie within how well the team does when playing against the aforementioned hard seven, the latter likely to be those teams also reaching the playoffs. END/ml