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FROM hanging with hopelessness instead of hope, a city’s sports teams can seem like shards of broken glass in different corners of a deserted alley, example: the Rockies, Broncos, Nuggets and Avalanche being way distant from the near-invincibility shown in past seasons. Fans in Detroit , Michigan
A point being made is that hopelessness need not exist because the Colorado Rockies tanked in 2011 and the Denver Broncos are at 1-3 after Sunday’s crushing blow from the Green Bay Packers. While hopelessness underscores the past and dwells on mistakes of recent games, hope addresses the near and distant future. Crazy though it may seem, hope shouts that the Rockies can take the National League-West in 2012 and be in the NL precisely where the Tigers are today in the American League; and, the Broncos can finish 2011 as a winning franchise. If the Lions could get to 4-0, the Rockies and the Broncos can improve greatly providing, of course, that the right things happen to change current conditions. As for the Denver Nuggets, it’s likely that they’ll be storming Europe and China
Last year at this time, commentators were predicting that the Rockies could make it to the World Series in 2011, a speculation based on the Rockies seeming to have a strong per position team, which included starting pitcher Jorge De La Rosa, 2010 ace hurler Ubaldo Jiminez (19 wins) and competent closer, Huston Street (31 season saves, career best), plus top NL batters Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, and highly praised manager, Jim Tracy. Looking back at the regular 2011 season, Gonzalez and Tulowitzki came through for the Rockies after a slow start, but De La Rosa flipped onto the DL, Jimenez went belly-up and Street slipped beneath his potential.
Looking at the current post-season, seen is that each team battling for supremacy is ace-hurler dominant, each of a pitching staff comprising starters, relievers and closers of exceptional merit. It’s no myth, the pendulum has swung back from batters dominating professional baseball to pitchers being at the forefront of those teams that get to be in October’s coveted races, a truth that the Rockies need to exploit favorably---in other words, if it appears that the current Rockies starters and closers cannot be in a class that includes Roy Halliday, Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera, then the Rockies GM and owners need to go shopping if that October berth is still of their hopes and dreams (it has to be a pitching staff with enough depth to ride out the possibility of a top starter and/or closer suddenly on the DL).
In recent years, baseball has seen fewer super hitters the likes of Williams, Dimagio, Aaron, Mays, Mantle, Maris, Rose, today’s Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols. Seeing Detroit Detroit
BRONCOS --- When an NFL team is 1-3 as a 16 game season moves on, a head coach can’t just concentrate on the next game, he has to reshape his season strategy for several games beyond the next. The nearest contest has to be used, in part, as a vehicle of preparation for the tougher competition scheduled further ahead. Broncos coach, John Fox, is in that tasking position right now, with San Diego the challenge on Sunday, followed by Bye week’s opportunity for restoration and game plan refinements, then comes Miami , Detroit and Oakland Miami Oakland
A Broncos defense of the potential shown in games one through three of the season, and an offense capable of third and fourth down TD’s from inside the opposition’s red zone, can go a long way toward preventing another 4-12 season finish. This requires the sudden appearance of a Broncos defense that remains immediately aware of opposition plays as each play begins, a defense that has the speed and strength forcing those opposition plays into the ground without significant Denver
Needed, too, is an offense where the Denver Denver San Diego , next lose to the Lions and again lose to Oakland , even from beating Miami such will leave the Denver
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BRONCOS --- AGAINST the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 2, 2011, the Denver Broncos showed what it takes to fail. From mid-first quarter on, the Broncos defense spun out flakily and stayed behind the power curve, aggressive and alert only too late as the Packers offense humiliated the Denver Denver
From comparison with the Broncos defense, the Broncos offense played just above the margin, scoring during each Q, completing 165 passing yards and 119 rushing yards. Orton threw for 273 yards and completed 22 of 32 passes, was responsible for three TD’s, one less than Rodgers. From their rushing, the top three Broncos receivers accrued 115 yards, while the Packers top three gained 110, and the Broncos top three pass receivers accumulated 221 yards, close to the Packers top three gaining 232. Also, the Broncos average in yards gained per play was 6.9, just under the Packers 7.3. Another upside is that Orton was sacked only once, clearly an improvement in the pocket over previous weeks.
Still, three interceptions and a fumble have their price, and the Broncos offense paid, unable to offset the weaknesses of the Broncos defense with what makes the difference when the clock signs off---points accumulated from drives across that white line for a TD or field goal. Note that the Broncos number of first downs gained was far inferior to that of the Packers, 18 under 26, certainly TD susceptible for the Packers.
Would Coach John Fox placing Tim Tebow back in the game during the last half have made a positive difference? An answer based on recent experiences of Tebow as QB afield would surely be “Probably not,” while an answer built from Tebow’s college football days would lean in the direction of “Damn right it would have.” But no matter, the Broncos defense had unraveled, unable to inflict serious spoilage upon savvy and swift Green Bay
And so the Broncos are now 1-3, with 3-1 San Diego a pivotal challenge come Sunday, in that a fourth of the NFL season will be over for the Denver team. Unless the Broncos defense can suit up and react smarter and faster, no longer giving away points earned by the Orton-led offense, surely the weeks that follow will be about anchoring for that respectful season finish short of a championship. Should the Broncos defense fail laterally and deep, whether it’s Orton, Quinn or Tebow leading the Broncos offense, well, such won’t matter very much.
MLB --- The Arizona Diamondbacks beat the San Francisco Giants last week, finishing as leader of the NL-West. If they win the NL championship and go to the World Series, it will be a second go at the WS for the DB’s, their first in 2001 when they beat the New York Yankees, 4-3. And should the DB’s win in 2011, excluding the 2001 win they will be the second NL-W team to do so since the L.A. Dodgers won the WS in 1988. They will also be the sixth NL team to win the WS since 2001. Far-fetched? Maybe---the money is now on Philadelphia or Milwaukee
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MONEYBALL: THE MOVIE
Marvin Leibstone, MHS
THIS is about a sports flick that is NOT titled Moneyball: The Broadway Musical, though that could be in the making. After all, there was a musical several decades ago called Damn Yankees, which could have been a proper title for the original book and recent film, Moneyball, by Michael Lewis, who also wrote The Blind Side, for it was New York Yankee dollars that got the ball rolling for the book, Yankee boss Steinbrenner’s money “blindsiding” the rest of professional baseball. The central character of Moneyball (book and movie) is Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane, committed to making the Steinbrenner approach to building a winning team irrelevant, and he succeeds, transforming the constructs for MLB team development and readiness.
But while lots of MLB GM’s, team mangers and players take Moneyball seriously and to heart, they also believe that it includes inherent dangers. For instance, seeing the game only as statistics pointing to how players should function afield and at the plate, therefore only doing what the applicable statistics advise, such could surely substitute for new information capable of making the difference between winning and losing. The statistics might say, “Next batter, he’d better bunt,” but what if that batter is Troy Tulowitzki and he’s been enjoying a hitting streak, it’s the ninth inning and an extra base hit would send in the winning run? Maybe it’s best to ignore the statistics and tell Tulowitzki to swing away.
Too, there isn’t a GM or manager in baseball who can ever have enough information, even if the spirits and minds of the three Bills (James, Gates and Beane) together built the world’s most advanced investigative software. All sports and especially baseball contain more possible actions that will appear for the first time afield, many of them forcing managers and players to decide in seconds between unfavorable options, e.g., Jim Tracy deciding if he should pull an unlucky Jhoulys Chacin out and replace him with Jason Hammel now coveting the National League’s worst ERA. That’s got to be the same as being locked by accident in a cage with a lion and a tiger---who should you fear first? Another example: statistics said that Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan was too old to continue in the game, he should buy a ranch, raise cattle; he stayed on anyway and at age 40 had an amazing year. Why? Not even Ryan can explain the uptick in his wins and the low ERA.
Yet it was the book Moneyball that shifted attention to what a lot of GM’s and managers already knew, that it is runs from base hits that usually wins games, from which higher on base percentages went to the forefront of what makes some baseball players better than others. Too, from Moneyball’s advocacy of reliance on computer software the evaluation of an upcoming player’s potential is now dominated by data configurations rather than from mostly a scout’s intuition.
Definitely an entertaining and educative film, the movie does an injustice, portraying Oakland Athletics manager Art Howe as a dufus who couldn’t possibly manage a Little League team, let alone the A’s, and the whiz kid assisting Billy Beane in the movie is not as nerdy as in the film. The film has moments when implied is that until Beane and his computer savvy partner came along, baseball owners, GM’s and managers were lacking sufficient smarts, a sort of insult to greats Branch Rickey, Casey Stengel, Joe Torre, Tommy Lasorda, so many others. Mostly it’s a movie about a hero bucking the system, the quintessential American hero, Beane the deputy sheriff facing down the black hats, the spoilers---he wins.
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THE 2011 Rockies fell beneath the margin, they deep-sixed and Rockies manager Jim Tracy chose NOT to fire any of his coaches. There’ll be no pink slips, no burn notices for the Rockies coaching staff during the remainder of Tracy’s watch, which, to my thinking, deserves full respect, for it speaks to a leadership quality best expressed by the phrase that all wise bosses take to heart, “The buck stops here.” It says that Tracy and his coaches have acknowledged their role in the Rockies dismal May to September experience and that their job is to reverse course and knit together the team’s talents for a winning 2012.
IT’s not as if Tracy Rockies aren’t misfits; they are rostered talent that can rise to the occasion, having had it in them to win more than 90 of 162 games in 2011 instead of the less than 75 obtained. Yes, realistic expectations fell apart; however, the Rockies weak 2011 season occurred primarily from its potential for a winning record not being actualized, while that potential hadn’t disappeared completely. The big question is, Why the wide gap between team potential and what actually happened?
Reversing course means first noting the roadblocks, such as the Rockies pitching staff having an overall ERA bordering on the pathetic, plus the Rockies having delivered insufficient game-winning runs in spite of the team having a better than average on-base percentage, also insufficient depth of personnel for replacing players injured or in slumps or suddenly error prone, for example, unavailable all season were pitchers capable of providing the game winning consistency of injured starter Jorge De La Rosa and that of former Rockies starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, who slid surprisingly from ace status to mediocrity.
Too, injuries plus off-stride/off-swing hitting issues forced line-up changes that resulted in lack of teamwork experience, producing less than desired power at the plate and weak defense coordination, with little time available for Tracy and his coaches to observe new players and take them to optimum game readiness. Moreover, power hitters for the middle and back end of the line-up were nowhere to be found when needed urgently, which is a farm system preparedness issue that the Rockies front office needs to fix, and pronto!
But when looking at individual player performances, that of Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, Mark Ellis, occasionally Jhoulys Chacin, the Rockies appear to be a lot better than a team that finished far below .500, reflecting sufficient potential for a successful 2012, so it’s now the job of manager and coaches to bring that potential forward. Second big question---HOW?
Important for a Rockies turnaround is emphatic understanding that the coaches that Tracy Tracy
Okay, how can the above-cited examples of consistency come about? How does a team’s potential stretch long, and sustain? Easy to say and difficult to execute is that coaches must insure that all player flaws are noted and examined to the nth degree, that the more trusted of identified solutions are applied thoroughly after testing, from something as simple as a batter wearing new contact lenses to the complexities of a pitcher’s choice between fastball, cutter, slider or curve. Then players have to train to the max under coach supervision surely a lot harder than in any year before.
In sum, and more than just intimated by Jim Tracy this week, the Rockies won’t get to rock until coach-player teaming starts rocking, and ASAP!
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BRONCOS ---- IT was a good football game each side of the field, and the Denver Broncos could have won had its defense stopped the Tennessee Titans from driving 95 yards in the final quarter for a TD that put the Titans ahead, 17-14; or if with minutes to go in the fourth Q and at fourth down and goal, Broncos running back Willis McGahee had gone further across the Titans one yard line for a TD, or if Broncos head coach John Fox had instead of ordering that fourth down rush had selected a field goal attempt. Anyway, the Titans won it clean and the Broncos are now one win and two losses while preparing for next Sunday’s turn against Green Bay
With regard to John Fox’s no FG decision, such speaks to a baseball situation: bottom of the ninth, Rockies are behind the Diamondbacks by one run, Rockies are up. First to the plate, Carlos Gonzalez, who walks. Up next, heavy hitter Troy Tulowitzki. No outs. Rockies manager Jim Tracy can have Tulowitzki sacrifice with a bunt, or Tulowitzki could try sending the ball out of the park for a home run. If the latter becomes a sacrifice fly, Gonzalez could run the bases, maybe reach third. Or, Tulowitzki could play the count for a walk, still no outs and the task of RBIs going to the remainder of the line-up. Which should it be? Bunt, putting the ball in the bleachers, sacrifice fly, going for the walk? Check with a baseball manual, it’ll say, “Do the bunt.” But that’s no ordinary batter at the plate, it’s a most reliable slugger. So, Tracy Tracy
Transfer the baseball situation to football and to John Fox setting aside the FG attempt, his having Orton and the right man for it McGahee doing what a football manual speaks against: Fox, Orton and McGahee opted for a TD and became the train that couldn’t, failure by inches. Was it the right choice? Considering the effective Orton and McGahee performances of earlier in the afternoon, the question deserves a Yes. Ask the question of many football coaches and they’ll agree, they’ll argue that sports wisdom advises a risk when the odds are better than good, though failure still looms in the near-distance. Anyone dissing Coach Fox for his decision has to get it that all sports are speculative moment-by-moment, therefore any “rational” choice is a good choice.
And from the vs. Titans game, there’s no reason for Orton-bashing or talk about switching ASAP for QB Brady Quinn or QB Tim Tebow, especially for Sunday vs. Green Bay Tennessee
The Broncos defense? It’s become a heads-up defense, yet some of its plays were foiled by Titan fakes, to which the Broncos defense hadn’t recovered from fast enough, and there were Broncos defense plays where foot speed was off and so interferences that could have happened, didn’t. But if Elvis Dumervil and other injured players return on Sunday vs. Green Bay
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WORLD SERIES, 2011 --- THOSE ball clubs that have won 90 or more games will compete soon for league championships and a go at the World Series: as of yesterday the NL’s Philadelphia Phillies from 99 wins, the Milwaukee Brewers from 94, the Arizona Diamondbacks, 93, the AL NYY’s from 97, the Texas Rangers, 93, the Detroit Tigers, 92, with competition from NL wild card contender the St. Louis Cardinals (88 wins) and AL wild card possible the Boston Red Sox (89 wins).
Probably the only solace that the Colorado Rockies can obtain from the above post-season list is that during the Rockies 2011 league + inter-league series with most of the listed teams, the Rockies , though now of a dismal 72/87 record, were not swept by them and in many cases had split a series. The Rockies are indeed a lot closer to .500 in games versus several of the top MLB franchises than vs. the complete spectrum of NL and AL clubs.
Of course, the eight teams currently listed for post-season play deserve the positions that they’ve achieved. Cumulatively, they represent 748 games won of the 4,860 that will be played by the 30 MLB teams as September comes to a close, definitely a huge share. Of particular note is that neither team has won the majority of its games from only a small string of baseball phenoms. Each has had a rounded-off staff of starting pitchers + relievers and closers, and they’ve had enough long ball batters interwoven and spreading power within a line-up’s OBP hitters/runners/base stealers. Too, most have had the necessary depth for replacing injured players. Surely the about-to-happen pennant races and the 2011 WS will be studies in what enables a baseball team to prevail against competition comprising extremely similar assets.
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