NFL:  SUPER BOWL XLVI

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NFL:  The New York Giants can brag about being victorious at three Super Bowls, so can the New England Patriots. The Giants took home trophy and rings in 1987, 1991 and 2008, the Patriots in 2002, 2004 and 2005.

Other franchises dominating a Super Bowl three or more times are the Green Bay Packers, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers, while New England has had the distinction of having won the Super Bowl two years straight, so, too, the Steelers in 1975 + ’76 and again in 1979 + ’80, also the 49ers in 1989 + ’90, the Cowboys in 1993 + ’94, and the Denver Broncos, 1998 + ’99.   

A more up to date and cogent fact related to Sunday’s Super Bowl XLVI, is that the quarterbacks facing one another have been Super Bowl MVP’s---the Patriots Tom Brady for Super Bowl IIIVI (2002) and again for Super Bowl IIIVIII (2004), and the Giants Eli Manning for Super Bowl XLII (2008).

BUT---the Giants have not been to the Super Bowl three additional visits “only to lose,” while the Patriots lost at the Super Bowl in 1986 to Chicago, in 1997 to Green Bay, and in 2008 to the team that they will be facing on Sunday, February 5, 2012, at Indianapolis. In the first quarter of that 2008 event, the Giants led 3-0, and in the second quarter the Giants succumbed to a Patriots touchdown, score 7-3 (NE). Then the Giants recovered in the fourth quarter, leading 10-3, only to be behind again from successful Patriot drives, which was temporary fallback---the Giants pulled ahead again, winning 17-14. While today’s Giants and Patriots are different in skills, strength and style from how they were for the 2008 Super Bowl, it isn’t by enough to say there won’t be a replay of 2008.

Yet New England could prevent a repeat of 2008 by protecting QB Brady in the pocket and keeping his line of sight free for throws to his go-to-guys, doing this with firm and heated determination for neutralizing the Giants pass rush and by keeping the Giants secondary from blocks, tackles, pass interference and interceptions, in effect, by utilizing fast anti-sack and pass protection within and throughout the greater Patriots forward-moving offense. Yes, we are talking "Football-101," the basics, yet easier said than done, for New York’s defenders have their way of being like runaway railcars moving at Mach-2 speed.

During the recent NFL playoffs, Brady completed 48 of 78 passes and was rarely sacked, which shows that the protection that he needs for getting the ball to receivers Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez (they ran for 232 and 121 yards respectively during the playoffs) could be available on Sunday. Also, during the playoffs, Gronkowski ran for three touchdowns, Hernandez for one—Brady/receiver connects are usually flawless.

Key, then, for the Giants, will be to ratchet up their pass rush and their defense tactics versus the Patriot’s receivers, especially vs. Gronkowski and Hernandez.

Not that the Giants QB Manning doesn’t have his go-to-guys---during the playoffs, Manning completed 76 of 123 passes, with receivers Hakeem Nicks running for 335 yards and four TD’s, Victor Cruz for 244 yards, and M. Manningham 116 yards for three TD’s.

It’s likely, then, that the Giants and the Patriots will employ similar strategies, emphasis on the pass rush and on neutralizing the opposition’s better receivers.      

Which team will dominate and take home the NFL’s Lombardi trophy on Sunday? Our take is that it’s anyone’s guess, with likelihood that neither will win by a wide margin. It won’t be like the Giants whipping a recent Super Bowl winner, the New Orleans Saints, 49-24, during the 2011 regular season; nor will it be like the Patriots playoff victory over the Denver Broncos, 45-10.

A comparison of playoff data puts the Giants and the Patriots almost neck-and-neck, for instance, during the last two of three playoff games that the Giants won, New York accrued 57 points, while from the only two playoff games that the Patriots participated in and won, 68 points were attained. Too, Manning’s pass completion record reached 61.8 percent, while Brady hit 68.5 percent. And, the Giants and Patriots rushed for a similar number of yards, the Giants for more than 300 from its three games, and the Patriots under 300 from its two games, but not by much. 

All this said, an informal survey of top football analysts and major sports media would have the Giants ahead, the conservative guess by three, the higher probability being by seven, both numbers from belief that the Giants pass rush will limit Brady’s ability to connect enough with his favored receivers. Does this take into consideration the fluke? We’ve seen it happen, the fumble, maybe an interception, one or the other resulting in the unexpected TD, maybe a 31-24 finish, N.Y. the winner---no, New England the winner, no, N.Y .  .  . 

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