NBA: DENVER NUGGETS, FINAL STRETCH // MLB: COLORADO ROCKIES, THE INITIAL SERIES.

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                “SPORTS NOTEBOOK” posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of every week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

            SPECIAL OLYMPICS SUMMER GAMES, COLORADO: for more information: specialolympicsco.org

NBA:   WERE the current NBA season to end this week, there’d be reasons for analysts and fans to label the Denver Nuggets a better professional basketball team than most others. Since the NBA season began last year, the Nuggets have been a winning team, usually second in the NBA Western Conference’s Northwest Division behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, scoring 100 or more points in almost every won game, while achieving a total points per game average that’s been around four points higher than the total ppg averages of nearly all teams that the Nuggets have confronted since early January.

Also, eight of the Nuggets usual starters and reserve have been averaging double digit ppg. Too, the Nuggets have maintained a field goal percentage higher than .465 and high totals of assists and steals, more than 1,025 and 40 respectively. Presently, the Nuggets are 27-23, tied with Houston for eighth place in the Western Conference and holding third place in its division behind the Utah Jazz, also 27-23 (The Nuggets are back of the Jazz for having a 5-5 record for its last 10 games versus Utah’s 8-2 record.).

But it’s almost April, and there are 16 games left to play before the playoffs. Moreover, the Nuggets have lost too many of its recent away from home contests, largely due to “defense posturing,” which continues to allow opposing teams to score higher than they in three digits, for example, the trouncing that the Nuggets took on Friday from the Jazz, losing 121-102. In those and other recent away from home games, the Nuggets have averaged an allowance of more than 112 points to opponents, raising the team’s overall season allowance above the 102 ppg that existed throughout February and into mid-March.

Right now, with Nene gone, with players returning from injuries, and with new acquisitions, there’s need of a period of adjustment regarding defense applications. Yet the Nuggets have proved to be a most coachable team, good at finding solutions, at applying fixes over a short period of time, to wit: taking down the Chicago Bulls on Monday, 108-91.

In other words, perfecting the big D “ASAP” is an imperative if the Nuggets are to stay in contention for post-season play.  

Only three of the Nuggets 16 games left will be against Northwest Division teams, two versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, the other vs. Oklahoma City. Of these two, Minnesota has a weaker record than the Nuggets, 24-26. Nine of the 16 are against Western Conference teams, two of the nine having better records than the Nuggets and that are considered more formidable than the Denver franchise---the Los Angeles Lakers, now 30-19, and the L.A. Clippers, 28-21. The remaining seven games include five vs. franchises that are close to par with the Nuggets, two vs. teams that have continued to perform poorly---the New Orleans Hornets (12-37), and the Golden State Warriors (20-27). Only one of the 16 challenges will be against an Eastern Conference team, the Orlando Magic, now 32-18.

So, if we go by the numbers (not always accurate), the Nuggets can, with an improved defense, have a fair chance of winning nine of its remaining 16 games, enabling a winning record at this season’s finish line, which can guarantee playoff contention for the Nuggets providing, of course, that the Utah Jazz and the two other Northwest Division teams that are now back of the Nuggets fail to accrue winning streaks that would push the Nuggets lower than the Denver team is today.

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MLB:     FROM Opening Day of the 2012 MLB season until May 3, there will be eight three-game series testing the Colorado Rockies strength and versatility, a package that can indicate how the team may fare by late September, in that 12 of the games will be against clubs in its own division, the National League-West---the San Francisco Giants, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Moreover, four of the eight series will occur away from home---versus (sequentially) the Houston Astros, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Mets.    

Baseball watchers assuming that the Rockies and the above-cited franchises will NOT be very different in skill-sets and power than they were last year, can argue that the Diamondbacks, which led the NL-W, 94-68, and the Giants, which followed in second place at 86-76, will be the tougher April/early May division challenges for the Rockies, and they could add that the Padres, which finished last in the NL-W, 71-91, will be the weakest challenge, with the Dodgers somewhere in the numbers between the Rockies and the Padres.

As for the remaining April/early May series, aforementioned advocates of the status quo might bet that the Rockies will lose its series vs. the Brewers, which won the league’s Central Division last year, finishing 57-24, but could dominate the Astros, the Pirates and the Mets, which had lower home wins than the 38 that the Rockies had last year---31, 36 and 34 respectively, though the Rockies couldn’t muster more than 35 road wins in 2011.  

BUT---those baseball observers who assume that the several line-up and pitching staff changes and also the improvements shown at spring training will make a big difference, they are citing that the Giants will be the top NL-West team in April and thereafter, winning three from the Rockies, April 9-12, adding that the Diamondbacks could win two of three from the Rockies, and that the Dodgers will do the same---all this from some rotation and bull pen advantages over the Rockies, and from belief that the Rockies new line-up and its rotation will need more than a month even after spring training to gather momentum. Also, these observers that cite change and improvements as valid factors for prediction, they have argued that the Rockies could prevent sweeps during most of the season’s first eight series and sweep the Padres, therefore maintain third place in the NL-W, an enhanced possibility if the Giants, DB’s and Dodgers lose enough to other franchises.

Yet a truism in baseball is that while few teams are the same year after year, few match the expectations that changes, improvements and spring training accomplishments seem to set up prior to Opening Day every year.   For instance, it was predicted before and during April of last year that the team to beat would be the Rockies, and that the Colorado franchise would be a World Series contender. Instead, the Rockies finished the season poorly, 73-89.

What’s predictable about baseball is that it’s usually unpredictable before a significant number of games can occur, and even then it’s hard to pin down which team will prevail over others. No-one thought as late as mid-summer of last year that the St. Louis Cardinals could reach the post-season, whip the Texas Rangers and become World Series champions. It shouldn’t surprise anyone, then, if the Rockies see the four other teams in its division off to a bad start, Colorado therefore leading the pack by May 4.

The point attempted here is that MLB predictions before more than 20 season games are underway are usually fodder for the dumpster. So---if you like making rational predictions about the Rockies, or you are a betting person, it’s probably best that you stay inactive in those pursuits until after the Rockies eight April/early May series comprising 24 games.

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