SUPER BOWL XLVII: Pre-Game Analysis /// NBA: Mid-Season Report; Denver Nuggets, Rising.

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.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

SUPER BOWL XLVII    ---     Maybe it won’t be the battle of the century, but it could be a thrilling game anway, which happens when nearly equally matched teams with just enough mojo to enact surprises face off at a Super Bowl.

So, could there be an upset at Super Bowl XLVII, with the winning franchise ahead by more than, say, three touchdowns and three field goals? Yes.

Might there be only a few points on either side from first period until the last, neither ever ahead by more than three? Yes.

Could Sunday’s game end in a tie and shift into overtime, next a repeat of the usually thought impossible, something akin to that deep pass by Ravens QB Joe Flacco that undid the Denver Broncos during the year’s playoffs? Yes.

Will brother against brother have a serious impact on which team will outperform the other? Head coaches, John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens), and Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco 49ers), are professionals, with team loyalty and career business at stake. Their relationship won’t be more than a mild determinant---the answer here is, No!

Fact: No-one really knows what the outcome of Super Bowl XLVII will be. However, we can deliver some informed guesses. Here are some observations to push that along. First, let’s talk about strengths of the Ravens and the 49ers.

            Both teams are led by quarterbacks capable of mixing it up, going from running game to passing game, with Ravens QB, Joe Flacco, perhaps being the better at launching the long ball, and 49er QB, Colin Kaepernick, being more the master of fake and run tactics, both experts at handing off to running backs “when they have the pass protection needed.”

While Ravens QB Flacco seems to be the better and faster at identifying options for a deep or short pass, for the handoff, for rushing by himself, 49er QB Kaepernick seems faster than Flacco at execution of the option that he chooses to go with.

And, when it comes to passing, of 51 passing attempts during this year’s playoffs, Flacco completed 39. Kaepernick, of 52 attempts, closed with 33, suggesting that the 49er QB’s surprise rushes for deep yardage have overshadowed his passing competency.

With regard to rushing in the playoffs, Flacco and his receivers accumulated 446 yards and 72 first downs, while Kaepernick and his receivers accrued 472 rushing yards and 50 first downs. As to total number of points gained during the playoffs, the Ravens put up 90, the 49ers, 73.

An upshot is that if we take from the numbers, and if the two QB’s and their wide receivers and running backs stay synchronized, Sunday’s match will be close and low in scored points, providing, of course, that the defense squads of either franchise stay as impenetrable as they were throughout January, which means that breakthroughs for either side can evolve from pass rush excellence, from a secondary constantly eclipsing opposing wide receivers, from linebackers grinding enemy running backs into the grass; and take note that in the Ravens playoff battle against the Broncos, a Broncos kick return specialist ran through the Ravens defense for two touchdowns.

If Ravens famous linebacker, Ray Lewis, can outfox the 49er QB protection and the 49er's RB’s, the Baltimoreans will have an edge, but Lewis is readable and will need to rely on measures of surprise to dominate. That said, QB Kaepernick is quick of eye and tricky of motion, as are his RB’s and WR’s, a serious challenge for Lewis and the Ravens secondary.

Summing up, and whether it will be the Ravens over the 49ers, or the opposite, the majority of picks for Sunday by NFL experts have been conservative, leaning slightly in favor of the Baltimore franchise, e.g., a Ravens win by three, at best, seven.
This page’s take is that the outcome of Super Bowl XLVII is currently anyone’s guess. Yes, it could be close and low in points, neither the Ravens nor the 49er’s up by more than three, or the winning team may be far ahead at the finish, like that Ravens 44-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals during the regular season, and the 49er’s 45-3 takedown of the Buffalo Bills during regulation.

Then again, it could be something centered along the spectrum, either team finishing at around 21-14, or 14-7 during OT .  .  .   Super Bowl XLVII, February 3, 6:30 PM, ET, “Sit back and enjoy!”

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NBA:     FROM a fast glance at where NBA teams are in the rankings today, it’s easy to think all could be 2011/12-cloned. In April of 2012, when the previous season ended and playoffs were about to kick in, the Thunder, Spurs, Lakers, Celtics, the Heat and the Bulls, they led their respective conference’s divisions. Now, except for the Lakers being in third place of the Western Conference’s Pacific Division, replaced by the Clippers, and the Celtics at third within the Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division, with the Knicks being at first, well, it’s dejavu .  .  . ! 

Even division second place holdings, and the franchises now within last place slots, mimic where NBA teams finished last season, e.g., the Denver Nuggets being second behind the Thunder, the Grizzlies just back of the Spurs, the Hawks rear of the Heat, the Pacers at the heels of the Bulls. The Warriors and the Nets having reached second place positions, such marks the only key difference from 2011/12’s end-of-season upper level rankings.

Also, last year the Timberwolves, the Hornets, the Kings, Bobcats and the Cavaliers finished at, or nearly at, the bottom of their divisions, and that is where they are now.

But a more than cursory look at today’s NBA standings reveals that numerous shifts could occur up ahead, and soon. For example, the Nuggets are closing in on the Thunder rapidly, five games behind when a few weeks ago they were nine back. Same re. the Grizzlies, having gone to six games behind the Spurs, from nine.

Also, the Nets, which finished at the very bottom of their division last year, they are now but two games behind first place Knicks, and the Pacers are only one game behind division leading Bulls instead of the eight back that they completed with, 2011/12.

Nuggets.  This presently 29-18 NBA franchise is hot---12 victories in January, one being a 121-118 win against the 34-11 Thunder, a 102-101 knockover of the Pacers, and two days ago a 118-110 takedown of the Rockets, during which Nuggets forward, Danilo Gallinari, scored three 3-pointers, two of them back-to-back.

Noteworthy is that the Nuggets, led by high above-the-margin head coach, George Karl, hasn’t been a team relying on one or two “superstars,” instead they have been a spread of players who are stars of a different kind, “teamwork operators,” looking for and exploiting opportunities for the rebound, the break, the shot and the assist, instead of three or four actors being in supporting roles so that a single star could shine.

Six Nuggets players can claim double-digit ppg averages, three being close with nine ppg averages, a sign of selflessness on the court and of point guard savvy exhibited by Ty Lawson, Andre Iguodala, and Andre Miller.

Thus far in the current season, the Nuggets are ahead of all opponents in number of successful field goals (excluding 3-pointers), free throws, offense rebounds, assists, team ppg averages, and total number of points since the start of the season.

Of the Nuggets January wins, only two were below 100 points. During a January win vs. the now 34-13 first place Western Conference Pacific Division L.A. Clippers, the Nuggets held them to 78 points.

Within the Western Conference today, the Nuggets are in fourth place, surely a post-season candidate.

Strangely, two of the Nuggets three January losses were to franchises at the bottom of their respective divisions, the Timberwolves and the Wizards. Defying repetition of such losses, February could see an increase in the number of Nuggets 2012/13 winning streaks, each streak interrupted by one or two losses, indicated by the Nuggets not having to meet a division leading team until March, except for a game vs. the now 28-17 Bulls (1st place, Eastern Conference’s Central Division), on February 7.

Since the current season began, the Nuggets have put on the board a six game winning streak, a five game winning streak, three four-game winning streaks, and two three-game winning streaks.

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