NBA: the East & West Post-season Outlooks; Denver Nuggets & 14 Straight Wins  // MLB: NL-West & the Colorado Rockies.

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.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NBA   ---    THE NBA race for post-season billets just isn’t any city’s game anymore, many of the fixes are in.

In the East’s three divisions, six franchises are far ahead of third and fourth place teams. Only very unusual circumstances could force them from playoff contention, in that for most there are only 13 games left to play before the regular season ends.

In the West, there’s even less of a chance of new mixes occurring among the leading teams, in that there’s a bigger stretch of won games between the three division leading franchises and those behind them.

Not that among the NBA’s current leading teams there can be any coasting, or minor changes to current standings. Up ahead for the NBA’s top teams are opportunity-nights of hard crunching, for attempts by each to win games full-bore in order to obtain preferential playoff-seeding, to be gated first- or second-round against opposing teams that are beatable for that last set of games---the 2012/13 finals.

Within the East’s Atlantic Division, the 40-26 New York Knicks and the 40-28 Brooklyn Nets are a close first and second, with the 36-21 Boston Celtics just four games back. And, the East’s Central Division is being led by the 42-26 Indiana Pacers, ahead of the division’s second place team, the 36-31 Chicago Bulls. In third place of the Central Division are the 34-33 Milwaukee Bucks, seven games behind the Pacers, two back of the Bulls.

Also, best in the East’s Southeast Division, and within the entire East + the West are the 53-14 Miami Heat, 11 games ahead of the East’s number two, the Pacers, but just one up on the West’s numero uno, the West’s Southwest Division’s leading franchise, the 52-16 San Antonio Spurs. Second behind the Spurs within the Southwest Division by five games are the 46-21 Memphis Grizzlies, and third are the 37-31 Houston Rockets.

Leading the West’s Northwest Division have been the 50-19 Oklahoma City Thunder, second behind the Spurs within the entire West. Second behind the Thunder in the West’s Northwest Division by three games are the 48-22 Denver Nuggets. To date, the Nuggets have won 14 games straight, placing them second within the entire West, a game ahead of the Pacific Division’s 47-22 Los Angeles Clippers. Third behind the Nuggets within the Northwest Division are the 34-34 Utah Jazz, 15 games behind first place, the Thunder.

Leading the West’s Pacific Division are the Clippers, eight up over second place team, the 39-31 Golden State Warriors, in third place the 36-33 L.A. Lakers, 11 games behind the Clippers.

On a tightrope rope, then, are the Knicks; they could fall more easily from first place than could all other division leading franchises.

So, with the above said, and given the current rate of wins and the number of games won by all other East and West first- and second-place franchises, today’s standings will probably be the same as the season closes.

Denver Nuggets  ---   There have been very few NBA seasons when after the All Star break a team or two hasn’t soared ahead unexpectedly, moving up the ladder toward playoff contention rapidly, skillfully. Though not of the numbers put up by the Heat or the Spurs, the now 48-22 Denver Nuggets are that team (31-3 at home since the current season began), with last night’s 101-100 win over the Philadelphia 76ers being 14 straight victories since February 23, a franchise record and a streak that has included two wins against the Thunder and a win versus the Knicks.

Since January 1, the Nuggets have won 31 of 38 games. On February 9, the Nuggets concluded a nine-game winning streak. The Nuggets haven’t lost four games in a row since the pre-season, which ended October 26, 2012.

Noteworthy is that the lion’s share of the Nuggets 14-game victory streak has been of games purchased large, that is, games taken by a wide margin. Only five have been nail-biters, i.e., games won by two or fewer points. Seven of the 14 straight were won by nine or more points, five of these by 13 points or higher; and, in seven of the 14 Nuggets wins the Denver team held opponents to less than 100 points per. The Nuggets dominated the Atlanta Hawks by 16 up, the L.A. Clippers by 15, the Knicks by 13, and the Minnesota Timberwolves also by 13.

And, four of the 14 Nuggets straight wins have been against only four Eastern Conference teams, with 10 vs. teams of the West, four of which have been vs. teams within the Nuggets Northwest Division, all of this enabling a speedy bump up for the Nuggets from six games behind Northwest Division leading team, the Thunder, to three behind, and to second place within the entire West.

Too, during the current season the Nuggets have defeated the Thunder three times, they’ve also taken down the San Antonio Spurs, the Clippers, the Golden State Warriors twice, the Memphis Grizzlies twice, the L.A. Lakers twice, the Utah Jazz, the Houston Rockets, the Indiana Pacers, the Boston Celtics, the Chicago Bulls. Except for the Miami Heat and the Brooklyn Nets, the Nuggets have won 2012/13 games vs. every other current first- and second-place team within the full NBA.

Surely the present rate of wins by the Nuggets has “playoff/second-round” written all over, with a glimmer of something beyond that.

MLB: NL-West   ---   ANY fans and baseball analysts saying that the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers will grab and hold first- and second-place slots within the National League-West starting early April, wouldn’t be candidates for that special loony-bin reserved for badly informed predictors. These fans/analysts could add that it’s anyone’s guess over where else the three other NL-West teams will be in the 2013 standings---the Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres, and they’d still be able to wave the banners of sanity. Backing up these crystal-ball gazers are last year’s stats and positioning, for instance, in 2012 the 94-68 Giants won the NL-West, the National League crown and the World Series, and the 86-76 LAD finished ahead of the 81-81 DB’s, the 76-86 Padres, the 64-98 Rockies (Ugh!). Too, four of the Giants starting pitchers had winning records in 2012, RH Matt Cain leading with 16-5, ERA 2.7. Of the Giants five relievers, four held winning records in 2012, and there’s RH Sergio Romo’s 1.7 ERA. Among the Giants hitters, there were three that finished 2012 with batting averages over .300, among them and leading, outfielder Hunter Pence, BA, .353; and, five Giants hitters finished the season with batting averages between .270 and .300. Pence, and Giants .336 batter/catcher, Buster Posey, concluded the 2012 season with 24 home runs each and 103 and 104 RBI’s respectively. From these numbers, the Giants seem to be the favorite for NL-West dominance April through September.

In 2012, the LAD’s starter rotation and relievers failed to compare with that of the Giants. However, they stood up well versus those of the remaining three NL-West teams. Among the LAD starting pitchers, three had winning records, RH Zack Greinke (15-5, ERA 2.5) LH Clayton Kershaw (14-9, ERA 3.4), and among LAD relievers three of seven had 2012 winning records, RH Brandon League and RH Kenley Johnson combining for 40 saves. Among LAD hitters, nine had 2012 batting averages of .270 and above, with OF Matt Kemp leading (.303 BA), first baseman Adrian Gonzalez next, .299 BA and 108 RBI’s. From these 2012 LAD stats, there exists evidence that they could overtake the Giants in 2013, though not by much, and certainly hold at second place within the NL-West.

As for the Padres, there’s starting hurler, LH Clayton Richard, who won 14 games in 2012, and RH Ed Volquez, who won 11. Also, the Padres RH reliever, Huston Street (formerly of the Rockies) had 23 saves and a 2-1 win/loss record in 2012, his ERA 1.8. Hitting for the Padres in 2012, only third baseman Chase Headley’s stats gave an indication of real power---.286 BA, 31 HR’s, 115 RBI’s.

From last year’s stats only, the Arizona DB’s seem to be the NL-West franchise that won’t be an engine that could with any consistency, suggesting that the DB’s will start out at the bottom and stay there. Though three of seven starting pitchers had double-digit wins in 2012, those same pitchers accrued double-digit losses and had ERA’s above 3.2; and, only two of seven DB relievers had winning records, the only reliever with a save also having a losing record. Among hitters, second baseman Aaron Hill (.302, 26 HR’s, 85 RBI’s), and first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt (.286 BA, 20 HR’s, 82 RBI’s) could offset the pitching vulnerabilities and help the DB’s into fourth place, maybe third place, if the Padres and Rockies cannot rise above their 2012 experiences.

It’s the Colorado Rockies that could bring change to last year’s NL-West final standings, providing that new manager, Walt Weiss, has found ways to match starters with relievers according to reliever ability to continue a winning score or help to orchestrate a save, as if starter and reliever were two-in-one, in that the reliever will have a special ability for overcoming the difficulties of the particular starter being relieved, or for continuing that starter’s winning way of obtaining strikeouts. Frankly, it’s hard to think of any other strategy for a starter rotation that in 2012 contained only one hurler with a winning record---LH Jeff Francis (6-5), but that maintained several relievers of winning records + above the margin ERA’s. 

Too, the Rockies line-up will be reinforced this year by healthy shortstop and superb long ball hitter, Troy Tulowitzki, and still game-sharp first baseman and super placement hitter, Todd Helton (the two suffered injuries last season, playing less than 80 games each), plus hitters/outfielders Carlos Gonzalez (.303 BA)  and Dexter Fowler (.300 BA), with 22 and 13 HR’s respectively, Gonzalez finishing 2012 with more than 80 RBI’s.

Too, if the fast and skillful hustle from Colorado catcher, Wilin Rosario (.270 BA, 28 HR’s, 71 RBI, and from infielders Jordan Pacheco (.309 BA, 54 RBI’s) and Tyler Colvin (.290 BA, 18 HR’s, 72 RBI’s) occurs at the right time during innings to overturn a losing score or stretch a winning score, the Rockies won’t be 2013’s poster-boys for the worm’s eye view.

So, and only from seeing the future through last year’s numbers, if there’s an upset to be had within the NL-West in 2013, it’ll be from the Rockies moving toward the top, maybe as early as mid-May, and, of course, from the Rockies staying there.

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