MLB: THE SEPTEMBER GRIND; COLORADO ROCKIES, LAST PUSH FORWARD // NFL: WIN FACTORS

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner) . . . MLB: AS of today, most MLB clubs have between 25 and 30 games to play before the 2013 regular season closes and September gives way to the October playoffs and then the World Series. For three of these clubs, September can be “doubling down” month, “crunch time,” for they are but one and two games behind first place within their respective divisions---the National League Central’s Pittsburgh Pirates, one game back of first place team, the 77-54 St. Louis Cardinals; the AL East’s Tampa Bay Rays, one behind the 77-55 Boston Red Sox, and the AL West’s Oakland Athletics, two under the 75-55 Texas Rangers. The three other division second place teams are far behind respective division leading clubs---the AL West’s Arizona Diamondbacks are nine back of the 76-54 Los Angeles Dodgers, and the NL East’s Washington Nationals are 13 behind the 78-52 Atlanta Braves, while the AL Central’s Cleveland Indians are five behind the 77-54 Detroit Tigers. The only division third place club with a chance of catching up and guaranteeing playoff candidacy are the NL Central’s 74-58 Cincinnati Reds, three back of first place team, the Cardinals . . . Except for the AL East’s 70-59 Baltimore Orioles being five games rear of first place team, the Red Sox, all other division third place franchises are behind leading teams by 10 or more wins, the worst being the NL West’s 62-71 Colorado Rockies and the AL West’s Seattle Mariners, each 15 games behind first place . . . Leading both leagues today, it’s still the NL’s Braves, with its 78 wins. Close behind are the NL’s Cardinals and the AL’s Tigers and Red Sox, each of 77 wins . . . Without dramatic jump-ups in wins, more than a dozen MLB clubs will finish the 2013 season under .500, and only two or three clubs will close above .600. Two MLB clubs will surely complete under .400, the 49-80/.380 Miami Marlins, 23 games behind first place, and the 44-86/.338 Houston Astros, now 31 games back of first. . . //. . . COLORADO ROCKIES: SEVEN days ago, the National League West’s Colorado Rockies were at 58 wins and 68 losses, below .500 (.460) and in third place of the NL West, 15 games behind the NL West’s first place team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Today, the Rockies are at 62-71/.466, still in third place, still 15 games back of the Dodgers. In the seven day period, it’s been “four wins and three losses” for the Rockies. More than a thought here is that the Rockies are not by any means “dead in the water” when it comes to a respectable season finish. Here’s why: Starting September 2d, the Rockies will play out the remainder of its 2013 regular season---24 games. Eighteen of these games will be versus teams within the Rockies own division, the NL West, surely an opportunity to rise up the division ladder some. Overall, should the August 20-August 27 Rockies “four wins of seven” continue along with an additional “two victories” the team will add 17 wins to its record + seven losses, finishing the season with 79 wins, 78 losses, above .500, at least a winning franchise if not playoff-bound. BUT, six of the remaining 24 contests will be against teams that are already front-runners for the post-season, i.e., the NL Central’s numero uno, St. Louis Cardinals, and the AL East’s number one club, the Boston Red Sox. Also, of September’s 18 games against NL West teams, six are vs. the Dodgers and six vs. NL West second place club, the Arizona Diamondbacks. While chances exist for the Rockies to own a respectable 2013 finish, it can only be from the team “doubling down,” going all out, maximum thrust for that 4 of 7 + 2 . . . // . . . NFL: IT can seem pure showbiz, all that pageantry + cheerleaders, the music and rockers at half time, but once an American college or professional football game starts it’s about gaining yardage and the tactics needed for that. It’s limited warfare, it’s the business of moving a ball forward, it’s about real estate + the collective energy and power needed to gain that. It’s Offense versus Defense, the latter’s job being to return the football to the former as fast as possible, which means more time for the Offense to do its job, build up points providing that it can outwit and overpower the enemy, escape the pass rush, the tackles, the interference, the exploitation of a fumble. And, like war, no-one can control all of a football game as it happens. A team’s biggest enemy can be predictability, afield the poker player’s “tell,” or a playbook lacking variety, or a head coach and quarterback believing what worked before will always work again. Theories abound, “Defense is the ticket,” an analyst shouts, while an offense coordinator believes that he is the next big thing in the NFL, then the difference between a good plan and its execution turns out to be wider than ever imagined . . flop, ooh! Ouch! Whatever happened to seeing pass protection as cool science, as progression of moves selected carefully and on the move? Who is that bad-ass linebacker who screwed up that play? Yet NFL winning teams seem to repeat, even if they don’t run in the same top two of their division every year. What is it that enables that, what has been embedded? Not just research but even casual fan observations show that having a savvy, skillful and strong quarterback with leadership qualities is a must, but without quality protection against the pass rush he can be neutralized. Top teams know this and will support the QB with the best that they can find among linemen. Also, winning coaches recognize the value of Special Teams and will do what’s needed to keep them at or above a high level of efficiency. Check out teams with below the margin records and you’ll find low performance data within Special Teams. Among the weaker NFL organizations, you’ll find inability to improvise quickly enough, to move to a plan B or plan C, or something suddenly imagined, when that first chosen maneuver flakes away. The better Defense is one that causes “disorientation,” “a what-in-Hell just happened bubble” containing the opposing Offense. Too, it’s easier for a Defense squad to stop or limit the rush, to pin down that running back with the ball, than to get between a QB and a fast and canny wide receiver, thus the importance of cornerback effectiveness, always noted on winning franchise. A WR that can escape and evade, purchase for the QB uninterruptable line-of-sight for the accurate long pass or bullet throw, he and that QB are, well, the big ticket. No QB, no NFL franchise, keeps succeeding without that WR attribute. Yet there are days when the best of cornerbacks rule. END/ml