MLB:  Colorado Rockies & “Going Forward”// NFL:  Broncos & the Patriots; Week Five (Projections)

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“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

MLB:    Well, they didn’t make 100---lost games, that is, a comfort for the Colorado Rockies, a club that slipped and slid as top players Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Jorge De La Rosa and others filled disabled lists and a starting pitcher rotation fell steeply from expectations.

Only the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros fared worse, all three downfalls visible since early May.

Of course, the past doesn’t always go quietly and swiftly into the night, it can hang around and dog owners, general managers, managers, coaches and players until all are confident that fixes have occurred and next season will be better, lots better.

So, for that satisfying moment that can surface for the Rockies during the final days of 2013 spring training at Scottsdale Arizona, what must happen?

For starters toward an answer, this page does not believe that firing manager Jim Tracy and his coaches is the answer. Tracy is among the more savvy leaders in baseball today, he and the Rockies coaches know full well that which it takes to win baseball games; in time, they can figure out how to get to a point where what they know translates into action and maintains.

In the roughly six months that the Rockies leaders and players have to create the needed turnarounds, a lot can happen for the best, but it isn’t going to happen without front office and owner support that is the right blend of intervention and non-intervention. Example: owner Dick Monfort knows that attempting to micro-manage his GM and Tracy is a bad idea and he probably couldn’t succeed at that anyway. He also knows that settling for a season “on the cheap” when it comes to acquiring new and better starting pitchers is a bad idea, further: that great pitchers are always at a premium and a team has to search deep, relentlessly and pay high in order to obtain “the star hurler,” and not only from within other MLB clubs via a trade but from scouting across the country at colleges, high schools and even local and makeshift sandlots.

Yet a team that isn’t one hundred percent behind the power of an effective farm system “development cycle” that in three or four seasons can transform potentially successful starting hurlers into, if not 20-game winners or cutter and knuckleball geeks, a set of starters skillful enough to attain small ERA’s, such indifference “kills.” Surely full attention to farm system development will remain a significant part of the winning owner’s equation, and it’s where the Colorado franchise is working to have more depth and could accelerate the effort---it’s the development segment that requires more emphasis from Mr. Monfort for making certain that the Rockies have special executives capable of building into minor league GM’s and managers the feverish and imaginative architectural work and better monitoring that creates success.

But appreciating and building on what a team already has within its pitching staff and its line-up is another imperative---there are times when you have to go to war with the best that you have at the necessary moment of departure, and for this the Rockies are, as this page has commented in earlier columns, a “work in progress” more than are other clubs. In spite of the Rockies 64/98 record for 2012 (the worst ever for the Colorado franchise), Tracy and his coaches have seen promise in a team that went afield as a club reconstructed almost overnight at midseason from necessity, rookie after rookie stepping onto the mound and at the plate, and several doing well---catcher Wiln Rosario, infielder Josh Rutledge. Add the more seasoned Chris Nelson, and outfielder Dexter Fowler, who finally poured consistency into his prowess for the extra base hit. Building up from this reconstructed assemblage makes sense, while using some of the better players as bargaining chips for a 2013 trade only makes sense if for that “star hurler.”

Also, though no Rockies pitcher has been high above the margin in 2012, no one of them a consistent winner, credible yet are Juan Nicasio, Jhoulys Chacin, De La Rosa, Jeff Francis (still), and Drew Pomeranz and Alex White as “trainables,” the potential is there, and Rafael Betancourt as closer (more than 30 saves in 2012).

The story told by the 2012 stats of enough Rockies pitchers, fielders and hitters underscore “next level potential.” 

Tracy and his coaches have to be expert builders, then, nurturing and polishing, seeing that the best of the Rockies is sustainable game after game, not an every now and then happening, among development themes “cohesiveness,” wherein hitters and fielders can offset a pitcher’s weak performance, on other days the opposite happening.

If there’s a breakout line from all of this, it’s “practice, practice, practice,” while a GM and scouts also seek to refresh the page, with luck “judiciously.”

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NFL Week Five (Projections)   ---   CAN the currently 2-2 Denver Broncos defeat the also 2-2 New England Patriots during their NFL Week Five match being held at Foxborough, Massachusetts, on Sunday? Yes, providing that the game is defined early as a team versus team contest and not primarily a duel between Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning and Patriots QB, Tom Brady.

Yes, this season is among the few left for Manning or Brady to appear one more skilled and more savvy, a question that has dogged fans, analysts and perhaps Manning and Brady equally, but Manning getting caught up in this question starting at kick-off can put he and his hard working offense off game, which personal rivalries often do by becoming the number one play-deviation priority. No doubt, the experienced Denver QB knows this, and he knows that Brady could be netted by the question, a plus for Denver. This page’s guess is that if either QB were vain enough to risk losing a game over who is a better captain of the offense, they wouldn’t be the QB’s that they are today, holding the records that each has amassed over the years.

So, expect a team versus team duel, the QB’s investing themselves in that fully, come what may. The buzz about the QB duel on Sunday will likely be hype masking a Denver offense unsure about how to outwit a Patriots defense that rearranges plays not only in accordance with the intelligence it has on opponents but innovates accordingly as it learns afield, moment-by-moment. Rigidity regarding play execution isn’t a Patriots head coach Bill Belichick gambit if something new is seen within the opposing offense. If Manning receives adequate protection during the Patriots pass rush and he and his receivers can repeat the timing and throw/catch and handoff synchronization shown during Week Four’s battle versus the Oakland Raiders, and if the Denver defense can again set up barriers consistently as was the case vs. the Raiders, then the Manning-led offense can finish ahead of the Patriots, possibly by a touchdown and a field goal. In other words, the above-cited Denver attributes can win for Denver, as long as the attributes are threaded with consistency, and defense "inconsistency" has been a major factor behind each of Denver’s losses this year, including the pre-season losses. If the Denver "inconsistency" dominates, it’ll be the Patriots ahead from numerous second half drives, the least difference in points that of a TD.

A condition favoring the Patriots slightly is that while the Broncos in two of four regular season games played to date have scored more than 30 points during each, and in the two remaining matches 25 and 21 points, the NE franchise has for its four games scored 52, 34 and 30 in three matches respectively, 18 in a loss to the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals. For maintaining a points advantage, Brady will have to be faster than in previous 2012 games in order to avoid Denver’s pass rush, namely sack-seekers Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller.

NFL Week Five (Projections) ----  UNLESS the improvement shown by the 0-4 Saints last week against the Green Bay Packers continues (they lost, 28-27), the team won’t be causing the 3-1 San Diego Chargers (Sunday’s New Orleans opponent) to worry about losing first place in the NFL’s American Football Conference West (Denver’s holding second place, AFC West).

If the 2-2 New York Jets lose to the 4-0 Houston Texans during their Week Five game, and the Patriots beat the Broncos on Sunday, the NE team could be number one of the AFC East going into Week Six, the Jets falling to second position, AFC East.

If the 3-1 Baltimore Ravens defeat the 1-3 Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, they’ll remain numero uno, AFC-North, and if the Texans do clobber the Jets (as expected) they’ll stay leader of the AFC South.

Last night, the 4-0 Cardinals lost to the St. Louis Rams, now 4-1, but the team will still be leading the National Football Conference West, when entering Week Six.

And the Philadelphia Eagles could be tied in Week Six with the Dallas Cowboys for first place of the NFC East, if they lose to the now 1-2 Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.

The 3-1 Minnesota Vikings and the 3-1 Chicago Bears could be tied at first place of NFC North as they enter Week Six, if both win their Sunday games vs. the 1-3 Tennessee Titans and the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively.

Win or lose vs. the 2-2 Washington Redskin on Sunday, the now 4-0 Atlanta Falcons will still be leading the NFC South.

END/ml