NFL: Week Eight, the half way mark; Broncos and the Saints  // MLB: World Series, Games 1 and 2.

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“SPORTS NOTEBOOK” will continue to post its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week---Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone.

NFL:   WHAT are we to make of the NFL’s halfway point during a 16 game race among 32 teams, each vying for a post-season billet, if not that a winning and honorable record at the finish line?

An overarching answer to the above is that Week Eight can provide a clearer view of teams likely to stay out of a post-season race, short of that turnabout that causes us to believe in miracles.

Furthermore, that Week Eight can also provide a clearer picture of franchises already leading the pack.

Week Eight is definitely a bend in the river, from where a future can be guessed at rationally from some crystal-balling of the upcoming weeks, in that scheduling can be an asset for any team, or a hindrance.

For example, during the eight upcoming games for four of the NFL’s top five franchises, i.e., the Atlanta Falcons (6-0), Houston Texans (6-1), Chicago Bears (5-0), and the Baltimore Ravens (5-2), neither will face teams of the same or greater caliber more than twice. All of their remaining challenges will be against franchises that are presumed weaker from their having four or fewer wins.

Yet between now and Week 16, those NFL teams with two or fewer wins as Week Eight commences (1-5 Carolina Panthers, 1-6 Cleveland Browns, 1-5 Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-5 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2-4 Detroit Lions), they will be facing franchises that at Week Eight can boast twice as many, or more, wins than they have had.

So, a 2012 NFL season reality check advises that it will be easier for Week Eight’s teams at the top to keep advancing, than for teams at the bottom of the league to climb out of their deep hole. Salt on the wounds of the currently losing teams is that of the 6-0 Falcons remaining contests, two will be against the 1-5 Panthers and the 2-4 Lions, and NFL’s second place team, the 6-1 Texans, they will be playing the much weaker Lions and the 3-4 Titans, having beaten the Titans, 38-14, September 30.

            Still, no NFL team has more than six wins as Week Eight begins, which means that no NFL team, not even the Falcons, is a guaranteed winner today---it takes eight wins to be locked into the .500 or better category, nine to guarantee a record of more wins than losses, even if a 9-0 franchise loses each of the season’s remaining seven games.

            Technically speaking, until an NFL franchise wins nine games, there’s no guaranteed winning record. All that Week Eight can point to, then, are trends that can keep those teams now out front still out front, and those now occupying the rear still to the rear. Week Eight is much less a throw of the dice than Week One can be, but it’s still a throw of the dice.  

            Broncos vs. Saints   ---  The Broncos have proven to be a super second half comeback team, as if a first half were rope-a-dope time, consisting of sacrificed rounds during which the Broncos could study an opposing team’s capabilities and limitations, then maneuver to make mince meat of opponents by attacking the discovered vulnerabilities during a second half. There could be a small degree of truth in this, since Denver’s quarterback Peyton Manning is a master at reading nuances of an opposing defense, and that could take several first quarter/first down attempts. But more than likely, Denver’s first half offense and defense performances have lacked the strategic and physical qualities shown in third and fourth quarters for no other reason than each squad unable to call up the best that is in them. To keep this simple, call it “the slow start,” and whatever is causing it has to be eliminated if the currently 3-3 Broncos are going to deliver a hammering blow to the suddenly advancing 2-4 New Orleans Saints this Sunday, and from the win maintain first place within the NFL’s American Conference West.

A point to be taken here is that the amazing fourth quarter comeback plays spun by Denver’s QB Peyton Manning haven’t been recovery enough in all of the team’s games played to date. A team can suddenly appear better than its opponent but at that two-minute warning there’s another competitor---“time.” Analysts have repeated that in two of the Broncos losses, another minute or so of play would have meant a winning TD for the Broncos.

Too, Denver head coach John Fox and QB Manning will admit that the team’s fourth quarter comeback brilliance hasn’t been from early-on design, instead out of necessity, and that it’s the transferred dynamism and skills that emerge from necessity, e.g., running a first quarter as if slightly behind with a minute to go in a fourth Q, is preceisely what the Broncos need not only against the Saints but during all of its remaining 2012 games.

Specifically, and especially re. the Saints, a big difference for Denver can evolve from pass rushes limiting the throw options for Saints QB Drew Brees, and Denver’s cornerbacks being astute enough to spoil whatever is tossed to New Orleans deeper receivers. And, the Saints will be aiming to reduce the number of effective handoffs to Denver’s running backs for first down attempts if they fail to undo QB Manning in the pocket.

But---if the improving defenses of both teams succeed at negating QB options, it’s a toss-up as to which will win, this page envisioning either team out-gaming the other by only a field goal, a 10-7 win by one or the other, excluding the possibility of another fourth quarter TD by Denver’s Manning-led offense, less than half a minute of play left.

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            MLB   ----   IT’s been said that around 65 percent of the time, a team winning the first two games of a World Series takes the entire package, whether from a four game sweep or after seven games. But that’s history and history is “back then.” This is now, and the Detroit Tigers swept the N.Y. Yankees recently, “and unexpectedly,” to get to the WS, and the San Francisco Giants reached the WS “unexpectedly,” after a 3-1 situation.

Yes, favoring the Giants for games three and on is that the team’s best hurlers for starting haven’t been to the mound yet, and Cy Young award winner, Tim Lincecum, seems unstoppable as a reliever, as does super closer, Sergio Romo. Add, the level that Giants second baseman Marco Scutaro has been playing, and the slugging available from third baseman, Pablo Sandoval (three home runs in a single game) and the extra-base hits that Hunter Spence and Buster Posey are capable of. This said, the next two WS games will be at Detroit, and Detroit’s manager may be the canniest in baseball for the comeback, plus there’s a Detroit lineup that, except for the two WS games lost to the Giants, has shown greater on-base + RBI consistency during the post-season---we’re talking Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta. Then there’s Detroit hurler Justin Verlander, stunned and drummed out mostly by Sandoval’s homers the other night, still capable of a comeback win.

A sweep by the Giants? Maybe, maybe not!

END/ml