MLB 2013: Observations; Opening Day;  NBA: the Elite.

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.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

MLB 2013   ---    THE pendulum swings, for sure. It’s been repeated to ad nauseam that in professional baseball an era of pitcher dominance can be replaced suddenly by that of home run hitters. Then the game could go back to men on the mound and strikeouts galore. Some years, baseball’s been a game highlighted and hiked incredibly by On-Base Percentages, and other years the game has seemed to be overtaken by pitchers going for control rather than speed, by resurrection of the knuckleball, or it’s the “cutter” gaining esteem. Then, bam! Home run artists are back on stage, and a few years later the game’s all about the Whiffs.

Surely from last year’s data and recent scouting reports, analysts can argue that 2013 won’t be a year of enough record-breakers either side of the ball, with neither throws from the mound nor hits being crowned the game’s leading factor by an unusually wide margin. Instead, some analysts have pointed out, there will probably be a kind of status quo in 2013, a slight edge belonging to the mound’s several masters from a rising number of strikeouts, as has been the case each season since 2005. However, this edge will be a minor one because OBP’s have also risen over the years from many hitters deliberately allowing a first pitch to be a strike and then another, forcing the opposing team’s pitcher to throw “in the zone” more often than desired, increasing likelihood of the hit.

In spite of the Chicago Cubs 2003 record of most strikeouts ever during a single season almost being matched in 2012 by the Milwaukee Brewers, MLB pitcher-dominance still isn’t of an extraordinary lead over the task of hitting, though hitting probably won’t see truly remarkable strides in 2013, either, that is, according to analysts we’re not to expect 60+ plus HR’s from any batter in 2013, no .400+ batting averages across a hefty number of games played.

Last year, 15 clubs of MLB’s 30 managed to finish above .500 after each played 162 games, and two of the franchises were tied at .500, each finishing 81/81 (the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies). A child can do the math and get it right: of 30 teams, half have to win and the other half must lose. The disparity comes in win/loss ratios among teams as a season closes. Nine of last year’s 17 teams that finished the season at or higher than .500 won more than 90 games, while seven teams from among the 13 that were below .500 had won fewer than 70 games, the Houston Astros becoming last in the MLB with but 55 wins.

The seven teams with 70 or fewer wins in 2012 experienced the lion’s share of MLB’s 36,000+ strikeouts for the year, while most of the teams that finished .500 and above had the better number of hits and led in OBP’s. This surely indicates that in 2012 the power-differential between pitching and hitting wasn’t tremendously wide. Neither pitching nor hitting caved sorrowfully one far behind the other.

So, what does any of the above mean? Mostly that players and fans will benefit, that professional baseball in America will remain a lot more suspenseful, more challenging, more interesting and more entertaining than if one side of the ball were to be super-dominant at nearly all stadiums on most game-days.

So, if we’re talking “Mound Vs. Batter,” then “Fairly Level Playing Field” is an accurate way to describe what will be seen during MLB 2013.

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OPENING DAY   ---   Of course, MLB’s first game day is more about psychological and spiritual impacts than being an indicator of what will happen across the season’s remaining 161 games. Last year’s World Series championship team, the San Francisco Giants, they lost game one, they’re starting the season in last place of National League-West, while last year’s third worst team, the then 61/101 Chicago Cubs, won yesterday and now leads the NL-Central. Some fans are already wringing their hands, and more than a few franchise owners have just cried in their beer, though in a week or two all will probably be quite different.

And, were it not for Bryce Harper hitting two HR’s, the Washington Nationals may not have had a 2-0 win over the Miami Marlins, the 20 year-old Harper’s feat the record for youngest major league player belting two HR’s during an opening day game. Is Harper the Nationals only shot at another year of high standing? No way, not when teh Nat's also have starting right-hand pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasbourg, 21 and 15 wins last year, and hitters OF Jayson Werth and IF Ryan Zimmermann, .300 and .282 respectively re. 2012.  

The highest number of 2013’s opening day winning runs belonged to the NL East’s New York Mets, 11-2 vs. the NL West’s San Diego Padres. Second was the AL East’s Boston Red Sox, scoring 8, N.Y. Yankees, 2.

All other first day scores were close, e.g., the NL West’s Colorado Rockies lost to the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers, 5-4, after 10 innings. More than two thirds of 2013’s first day games were won by four or fewer runs, and only four teams went scoreless.

The upshot here is that while some of us have been saddened by our favorite team losing a first game of a new season, across-the-board MLB’s Opening Day was a winner for “Mound Vs. Batter” competition, thus for a season of opportunities either side of the ball, either league.

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NBA, Countdown   ---   IF there’s an elite within the NBA today, it’s of the five franchises that have won 50 or more of their scheduled 82 regular season games, the Eastern Conference’s Southeast Division Miami Heat far ahead with 58, newest to join the group being the West’s Northwest Division Denver Nuggets, 50. All are either leading their respective divisions, or they are holding second place with comfortable leads over third place teams.

In the West, the San Antonio Spurs are leading with 55 wins, the Oklahoma City Thunder next, 54. Closest to the Thunder in wins within the West are the Los Angeles Clippers, 49. In the East, the Heat has been the only franchise to reach and then exceed 50 wins, the Indiana Pacers being closest---47 wins.

What is it about 50 and 50+ wins? Surely they’re the numerical symbols for “Post-season-bound,” and, depending on future regular season wins such can mean being seeded in the upcoming playoffs according to preference.

With 16 teams (eight per conference) participating in post-season games, it appears that the current elite (50 wins & more) are locked in for playoff appearances and will be challenged by those teams now nearing the golden 50. In the East, for instance, the now 40+ New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, the Pacers, Atlanta Hawks, the 40-32 Chicago Bulls, the 38-36 Boston Celtics and maybe even the 36-37 Milwaukee Bucks will comprise the East’s post-season challenges, while in the West it will certainly be the Spurs, the Thunder, the Nuggets, Clippers, the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors, and possibly the Houston Rockets, and maybe the 39-36 Utah Jazz or the 38-36 L.A. Lakers.

If today’s numbers are to be a reflection regarding the future, the West will be won by the Spurs, the East by the Heat, neither reaching the finals seriously battered. But isn’t the NBA’s post-season competition that which begins at Zero? Until then, Las Vegas, knock yourselves out! Money on, say, the Nuggets and Pacers reaching the finals isn’t a fool’s bet.

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