NBA: Close to the finish line; Denver Nuggets, challenged by injuries “still formidable” // MLB-2013:Early Standings; Colorado Rockies & the good start.

For more analysis, go to Mile High Sports Radio AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team, milehighsports.com.  .  . 

.  .  .   SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday of each week. Ed. & Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner.

NBA   ---   WHILE college basketball held center stage in March, the NBA experienced some unexpected changes. The East’s now 44-32 Brooklyn Nets started losing steam and the New York Knicks rocketed upward, now 50-26, locking onto first place within the East’s Atlantic Division, the second place Nets six games behind instead of the one or two that had continued for months during the current season.

Also in the East, number one team the 60-16 Miami Heat became the league’s first franchise to win 60 games this year, 10 ahead of the Knicks, 12 up on the East’s third place team, the 48-29 Indiana Pacers.

In the West, the 57-20 San Antonio Spurs held onto first place but with just one game ahead of the 56-21 Oklahoma City Thunder. The West’s 53-24 Denver Nuggets grabbed third place, but at a price, losing guard, Ty Lawson, and forward, Danilo Gallinari, to injuries, meanwhile two other Western teams collecting 50 and more wins for the season---the 52-25 Memphis Grizzlies, the 51-26 Los Angeles Clippers.

Not that the Nets are done and gone. Being fourth in the East with only a few games left to play, they are playoff-bound. Given that the NBA post-season requires that each conference send their eight teams with the most wins, the East’s 42-34 Chicago Bulls, 42-36 Atlanta Hawks, the 40-37 Boston Celtics and the 37-39 Milwaukee Bucks will be joining the Heat, Knicks, Pacers and the Nets for those rounds.

In the West, also with but a few games to go the 44-33 Golden State Warriors, 43-34 Houston Rockets, the 41-37 Utah Jazz and the 40-37 L.A. Lakers will be the likely teams accompanying the Spurs, Thunder, Nuggets and Clippers for post-season play.

Adding up all of the East’s 2012/13 wins as of last Sunday, we have around 90 fewer than than the West accrued, and of the top five teams of the East only two have won 50 and more games. Of the West’s top five, all have won 51 and more games per. We could therefore argue safely that the West has a considerable edge over the East, though the latter’s top team is leading the league and was last year’s NBA championship team.  

How does the above compare with the previous season? Last year, the Bulls finished the 2011/12 season with the most games won in the East, 50, followed by the Heat’s 46, the Pacers third with 42. The Knicks won but 36 games last season, and, with only 22 wins the Nets fell to last place in the Atlantic Division and to fourth from the bottom within the East. In the West, the Spurs led with 49 wins as the 2011/12 season ended, the Thunder second with 47, the Lakers third, 41, the Clippers next, 40.

Yes, there’s variance among the two seasons, but not greatly, the surprises in the East this year being the Nets rising as they have, also the Bulls and Celtics hanging back, and the Orlando Magic performing poorly compared to last season---19 wins as of Monday.

In the West, 2012/13’s surprises have included the rise of the Clippers, and of the Warriors, plus the Nuggets multiple winning streaks: six, nine, then 15 since January 1. Also, the Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks have fallen back from previous year standings. What’s been truly steady are the losers, for instance, the Charlotte Bobcats again being the worst team in the NBA---18 wins, as of today. Any hope here? Well, that’s 11 more Bobcat wins than achieved during 2011/12.

High numbers are what drives a team into the NBA playoffs. However, regular season numbers begin losing significance as the first round commences. Last season’s teams with the most end-of-season wins were eliminated before the league’s title run. Had it only been about the regular season’s numbers, last year the Bulls and the Spurs would have battled for the NBA championship, not the Heat going against the Thunder, not Miami ascending the way it had.

So, what are the likely outcomes regarding this year’s NBA finals? That’s really anyone’s guess.

 Denver Nuggets  ---     It would seem that nothing could be worse for an NBA team headed for the playoffs than losing to injuries two players who have held the team’s highest ppg records since January 1, who have been the only ones to score more than 1,000 points since the current season began, and who have had the team’s highest number of successful field goals, free throws, plus a high number of steals and assists. Not so for the Denver Nuggets, coached by George Karl, who knows a great deal about dark circumstances and how to attain victory in spite of them. At the personal level, Karl has beat cancer twice in his life, and two seasons ago the Denver Nuggets were gutted when star athlete and forward, Carmelo Anthony, left to play for the New York Knicks, the departure of forward/center, Kenyon Martin, and guard, J.R. Smith, riding the same wave. Without a 20+ ppg player in sight, Karl put together a team capable of overcoming shooter dominance via what could aptly be called “coordinating fires,” that is, fusion of accurate shooting, multiple rebounding, high speed to the glass, fast transitioning from offense to defense, increased steals and assists, lots of second chance shots, improved shots from the corners and other angles, and in-your-face defense. As of April 3, six Nuggets players had double-digit ppg averages, the lowest being 11.8, the team’s total ppg average 105.7, higher than the combined total re. all teams that the Nuggets have played against during the 2012/13 season. And, becoming insurance against loss of top starting players has been one of the best bench-rosters in the NBA, therefore the 16 ppg/speed-skating guard, Ty Lawson (injured) can be substituted for by guard, Andre Miller, a perhaps slower but a more canny playmaker and as good a shooter from any position on the court, 9.5 ppg for a third fewer minutes than Lawson has played since October, 2012. Add, above-the-margin guard, Evan Fournier, taking Miller’s place on the bench. Forward Danilo Galinari, the other leading Nuggets player out for the year from an injury, he, too, will turn out to be other than indispensable, in spite of his super contribution to the Nuggets victories throughout 2012/13 (16.9 ppg avg.). Forwards/centers Kenneth Faried, Corey Brewer, Wilson Chandler, Andre Igoudala, Kosta Koufas and Timofey Mozgov won’t be mere fill-ins during the playoffs, in that Faried, McGee, Koufas and Mozgov have higher FG percentages, than Gallinari. Note, too, that during the current season the Nuggets defeated each of the seven other Western teams likely to be rostered for the year’s playoffs. The Nuggets also defeated the West’s Miami Heat and the N.Y. Knicks during the current season.

*          *          *

MBA:        OF MLB’s 30 teams, three that last year finished far below .500 and so within the bottom 10, they are now leading their divisions, the National League’s 5-2 Colorado Rockies, the American League’s 5-2 Boston Red Sox and the AL’s 4-2 Chicago Cubs. The remaining three divisions are being led by teams from last year’s top 15 and that last year won more than 90 games.

And, last year’s World Series winner, the NL’s now 3-4 San Francisco Giants and the AL championship team that it beat for the WS crown, the now 3-3 Detroit Tigers, they are second from the bottom within their respective divisions.

But last year’s worst MLB club, the AL’s Houston Astros, they are at the bottom of both leagues, 1-5, and second worst of last year, the Miami Marlins, they are 1-6, second from the bottom.

Among today’s six second place ball clubs, two finished last season under .500, the New York Mets and the Kansas City Royals, and a third, the Arizona Diamondbacks finished 2012 at .500, thus 81 wins and 81 losses. Except for the NL’s St. Louis Cardinals, which had 88 wins in 2012, today’s remaining division second place holders won more than 90 last season, the AL’s Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles.

Rarely are the first weeks of a baseball season anywhere near proof of what final standings will look like, but should today's standings be the exception and an indicator of what’s in store, then 2013 will include many surprises, though doubtful is an Astros/Marlins WS. 

Colorado Rockies   ---    The good start is usually the wise start, coming from something crafted, something thought through, rarely from scheduling vs. teams as weak or weaker. Last year’s poor Rockies record evolved mostly from consistently weak pitching and several top batters experiencing injuries, disallowing the usually powerful Rockies line-up from being able to offset what the pitching staff couldn’t do. What’s been seen since April 1 of this year is an improved pitching staff, including proper starter/reliever match-ups and a line-up reinforced with improved hitters, among them, lead-off batter, Dexter Fowler, a strengthened OF, Carlos Rodriguez, a crusher in catcher, Wilin Rosario (all three have posted home runs since April 1) and the return of  shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, and first baseman, Todd Helton, thus a better defense/offense balance than the Rockies had for but 64 wins last season. Seen thus far is that LH hurler Jeff Francis may be throwing slower but he’s throwing smarter, and LH starter, Jorge De La Rosa, kept the Giants scoreless for five innings last night, though a single pitch turned the game at AT&T park around for the Giants, Rockies losing to them, 4-2, mainly from Giants OF Hunter Pence’s three run homer off of De La Rosa. Last night’s loss ended a five game winning streak for the Rockies, a streak that even early in a season is hardly ever a fluke.

END/ml