Friday, November 21, 2014

NFL: Analysis, Week 12; Broncos Vs. Dolphins // NBA: Update; Denver Nuggets, Rising.

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday OR SATURDAY  each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner .  
NFL---AFTER 16 losses since October, 2013, 10 during the current NFL season, the American Conference West’s last place Oakland Raiders got a win, against the AC West’s K.C. Chiefs last night, 24-20, pushing the Chiefs to 7-4 and second position behind the AC West’s leading franchise, the 7-3 Denver Broncos.
Though still a last place team, the Raiders are now 1-10.
Still leading the AC East are the 8-2 N.E. Patriots, with a two game lead atop second place franchise, the 6-4 Miami dolphins. Presently, the Patriots are the number one AC franchise and also second within the entire NFL, behind the National Conference West’s 9-1 Arizona Cardinals.
On Sunday, the Patriots will face the NC North’s leading team, the 7-3 Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will be challenging the Broncos. Though unexpected, a Patriots loss to the Lions, and a Dolphins win vs. the Broncos, also unexpected, would put the Dolphins back of the Patriots by one win, and for Week 13 the Broncos could be tied at first within the AC West with the Chiefs, both then being 7-4.
Yes, given that the Raiders began Week 12 last night with an upset, anything could happen come Sunday. 
The AC North could see current leading team, the 6-3 Cincinnati Bengals, lose to the AC South’s second position 5-5 Houston Texans during Week 12, dropping behind the now second place 7-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, though the latter is at Bye on Sunday; and, the AC South’s leading team, the 6-4 Indianapolis Colts, will be facing the AC South’s last place franchise, the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars, also on Sunday, the Colts expected to win and to stay atop the AC South.
Within the NC, the NC West’s leading franchise, the 9-1 Cardinals, could lose to the 5-4 Seattle Seahawks on Sunday and still maintain its three game edge over second place team, the S.F. 49ers, providing that the 49ers lose to the NC East’s last place 3-7 Washington Redskins on Sunday. The Cardinals and Seahawks contest could be Week 12’s tightest, possibly won in OT
 And, right now the NC East’s Philadelphia Eagles and the division’s Dallas Cowboys are tied at first place, each 7-3. The likelihood of an Eagles win over the AC South’s 2-8 Tennessee Titans on Sunday seems greater than that of the Cowboys defeating the NC East’s fourth place 3-7 N.Y. Giants come Sunday, and so the Eagles would be staying ahead by a win.
Moreover, the NC North will remain contentious if the Lions take down the Patriots during Week 12, and if the now NC North second place team, the 7-3 Green Bay Packers, defeats the division’s last place team, the 4-6 Minnesota Vikings, to which many analysts have argued that the Packer’s QB Aaron Rodgers will dominate from first Q on.
So, too, will the NC South remain up for grabs when Week 13 appears, today’s NC South leading team, the 4-6 Atlanta Falcons, probably prevailing over the AC North’s last place 6-4 Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and the 4-6 N. O. Saints winning a battle vs. the AC East’s third place 6-4 Baltimore Ravens during Week 12’s Monday night game.
Were the Super Bowl this weekend, it would be the Patriots vs. the Cardinals. Among others out of the race for a playoff shot, that’s the 1-10 Raiders, the 2-8 N.Y. Jets, 2-9 Jaguars, 2-8 Titans, the 3-7 Washington Redskins and the 2-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Broncos, Dolphins---FOR the one team that runs ahead of the pack smoothly from being, say, 11-0 during Week 12 of an NFL season, there are numerous other above-the-margin teams for which progress remains two steps forward and one back after one step ahead and two back. The Broncos have won seven of 11 games this season so far, the team’s losses separated by one or two weeks between wins, the team’s worst loss last week being to the now NC West’s last place team, eh 4-6 St. Louis Rams, 22-7, which defied lots of data saying the opposite should have occurred, in that the Broncos still are far ahead of the Rams in just about every meaningful offense and defense game categories, from owning the most TD’s Weeks 1 through to today, to most yards gained and most first downs accrued.
Against the Miami Dolphins stats from Week 1 until now, the Broncos are also way ahead, example, the Broncos having a total of 30 receiver TD’s, the Dolphins, 17, the Broncos having purchased 4,129 net yards going into Week 12, the Dolphins, 3,484. And, Broncos QB Payton Manning has thrown for 3,301 yards, the Dolphins QB, Ryan Tannehill, for 2,354.
Win determinants for the Dolphins will depend on how well the Dolphins could disorient Manning and get between Manning and top Broncos receivers Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and also if the Dolphins could stop Broncos RB Montee Ball in place after a handoff, and if they can prevent Broncos pass rush maestros, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, from causing the Dolphins QB, who has a pass completion rate almost as good this year as Manning’s, to lose all QB synchronicity with WR’s and RB’s.
It’s likely, however, that the Broncos will defeat the Dolphins on Sunday.
Yet last week the Rams managed to accomplish what seemed impossible, so it could surely happen for the Dolphins, a team that in eight of the 10 games it has played this season hadn’t left the field without having scored 10 or more points, not one of its wins of fewer than 22 points, within those wins two with more than 30 points.
But if QB Manning is “on game,” Dolphins fans won’t be celebrating after dark.
NBA---Noteworthy today is that no team within the Western Conference Southwest Division is below .500---the division’s last place team, the N.O. Pelicans are at 6-4 today, about to meet the WC Northwest’s 4-7 Denver Nuggets tonight. The Division has won a total of 41 games since NBA 2014/15 began, its second and third place teams, the Dallas Mavericks and the Houston Rockets both at 9-3.
Leading the WC Southwest, that’s the 10-2 Memphis Grizzlies, first this season to reach double-digit wins among the NBA’s 30 franchises. The Grizzlies are now the WC and league leading team.
Second within the entire league, that’s the Eastern Conference Atlantic Division’s 9-2 Toronto Raptors, holding a five game lead over the division’s second place franchise, the 4-6 Boston Celtics.
And only three other teams are in the same .800+ range as the Grizzlies and the Raptors, the WC Northwest’s leading franchise, the 8-3 Portland Trail Blazers, the WC Pacific’s leading team, the 8-2 Golden State Warriors, one win ahead of the 7-4 L.A. Clippers, and the EC Central’s leading team, the 8-3 Chicago Bulls.
Among slow starting teams for the current season, and surprisingly so, are the WC Northwest’s last place 3-10 Oklahoma City Thunder, the WC Southwest’s 7-4 San Antonio Spurs, the EC Atlantic’s 3-10 N.Y. Knicks, EC Southwest’s 6-6 Miami Heat, and the EC Central’s 5-7 Indiana Pacers, while the teams with better season starts than expected have been the EC Southeast’s leading franchise, the 7-3 Washington Wizards and EC Southeast’s second place team, the 5-5 Atlanta Hawks.
Still at the bottom of its division, and lowest within the entire league---the 0-11 Philadelphia 76ers.
Denver Nuggets---AFTER a weak start that included six losses in a row, the Nuggets have turned it around, they are now 4-7 and third within the NBA Western Conference’s Northwest Division, after a 107-100 win this week over the WC Northwest’s 3-10 Oklahoma City Thunder, next up for the Nuggets a game tonight vs. the WC Southwest’s last place but 6-4 N.O. Pelicans, a win that with a subsequent win vs. the L.A. Lakers on Nov. 23 could lift the Nuggets in skills, spirit and confidence for a match sure to be most tense and close vs. the Eastern Conference Central’s number one, the 8-3 Chicago Bulls,  Tuesday, Nov. 25.
The above-cited Nuggets wins could move the Nuggets up from third to second position within the WC Northwest, maybe better than that if the now 8-3 Portland Trail Blazers and 5-7 Utah Jazz lose their next three or four games.
Note that in five of the Nuggets six losses, the team scored 100 or more points. Significant 2014/15 gains for the Nuggets now are four of the team’s starters scoring, on average, 10 or more points per game, guard Ty Lawson ahead at 16 ppg, Arron Afflalo next with 12, plus a total of more than 200 assists to date, Lawson ahead here, too, with 76 assists.
Also, the Nuggets are leading all teams they have met since the current season began regarding the important offense-rebound, 120 over 99, and they are 84 beside 84 completed three- pointers with those teams, and just 10 assists behind that of all teams matched with since October 29.
END/ml

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