Friday, November 28, 2014

NFL: Week 13, Standings & Uncertainties; Broncos @ Chiefs // NBA: Breakaway Days.

sports-notebook.blogspot.com . . . FOR MORE ANALYSIS, GO TO "MILE HIGH SPORTS RADIO," AM1510 or FM93.7, and to Denver’s best sports blogging team---milehighsports.com. SPORTS NOTEBOOK posts its columns Tuesday and Friday each week. Ed., Publ., Marvin Leibstone; Copy & Mng. Ed., Gail Kleiner .  
NFL--- THE National Conference East’s 9-3 Philadelphia Eagles are now a win above the NC East’s currently 8-4 Dallas Cowboys and so the division’s leading team, and the NC West’s Seattle Seahawks are at 8-4 after defeating the now 7-5 S.F. 49ers yesterday, the Seahawks therefore one win below the NC West’s leading franchise, the 9-2 Arizona Cardinals.
Meanwhile, the NC North’s 8-3 Green Bay Packers and the NC North’s 8-4 Detroit Lions have gone to first and second positions respectively, while the NC South’s 7-4 Atlanta Falcons and 7-4 N.O. Saints are tied at division first position.
Surely the above-cited division leading edges are fragile with regard to final NFL-2014 regulation outcomes and for preferred playoff spots.
It’s different, however, for the American Conference East’s 9-2 N.E. Patriots, three wins above the 6-5 Miami Dolphins, but less so for the AC West’s number one franchise, the 8-3 Denver Broncos, the latter one win above the 7-4 K.C. Chiefs and the 7-4 S.D. Chargers.
And division leadership is now at risk for the AC North’s 7-3 Cincinnati Bengals, in that the AC North’s 7-4 Baltimore Ravens are directly behind them, while a better though still uncertain lead belongs to the AC South’s 7-5 Indianapolis Colts over second place team, the 5-6 Houston Texans.
Best within the NC, then, are the NC West’s 9-2 Cardinal’s, this by one less loss over the NC East’s 9-3 Eagles, while the Patriots dominate the AC, though tied with the Cardinals for best within the two leagues.
Unmistakably, Week 13 can make the difference for smoother slides into where today’s division, conference and league leading teams are hoping to be for post-season billeting.
So---to maintain dominance all-around, the Cardinals need to defeat the Falcons on Sunday and hope for a Seahawks loss to the Eagles during Week 14 (Sun., Dec. 7), while the Patriots will seek dominance over the Packers on Sunday and then hope to bury the Chargers in the following week.
Meanwhile, a Broncos loss to the Chiefs this Sunday will place both teams at the number one slot along with the Chargers if the Chargers can defeat the Ravens during the same day.
Also, a likely Bengals win on Sunday over the NC South’s last place franchise, the 2-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, will keep the Bengals atop the AC North, though a Ravens win on Sunday, plus the AC North’s 7-4 Pittsburgh Steelers punishing the Saints, and simultaneously the AC North’s 7-4 Cleveland Browns crushing the AC East’s 6-5 Buffalo Bills, such will definitely continue the AC North’s three-way Ravens/Steelers/Browns tie for second position behind the Bengals.
Meanwhile, the AC South’s Colts will probably defeat the NC East’s last place team, the 3-8 Washington Redskins, on Sunday, holding onto division leadership.
Within the NC, an expected Cardinals win over the Falcons should keep the Arizona franchise at the very top, and the AC Patriots losing to the NC North’s Packers on Sunday could mean its loss of AC conference dominance and upkeep of a tie for such with the AC West’s Broncos should the latter take down the Chiefs.
Looking back from Week 1 to the present, each of the NFL teams vying now for post-season slots have experienced an unpredicted loss, e.g., the Broncos defeated by the now 4-7 St. Louis Rams, and so the current NFL season’s Week 13 could reflect musical chairs, for some “13” seeming to indeed be the unlucky number.
Broncos, Chiefs--- THE now 8-3 Denver Broncos defeated the currently 7-4 Chiefs during Week 2 of NFL-2014 regulation, 24-17, and since then they’ve lost three games, giving away a total of 91 points to opposing franchises, while from Week 1 on the Chiefs have lost four matches, allowing 96 points to opposing teams.
And from the eight games won to date by the Broncos, 284 points have been gained, from the seven Chiefs wins, 197. Two of the Chiefs losses were to teams well below .500, to the AC South’s fourth position team, the 2-9 Tennessee Titans, during Week 1, score 26-10, and to the AC West’s last place team, the 1-10 Oakland Raiders, Week 12, score 24-20.
Also, two of the Broncos three losses were to teams holding first and second positions within their respective divisions, to the AC East’s first place 9-2 Patriots and to the NC West’s second spot team, the 8-4 Seattle Seahawks, the Chiefs most embarrassing loss being that to a then 0-10 last place Raiders, the Broncos most embarrassing loss to the St. Louis Rams, 22-7, Week 11, a team that the Chiefs defeated, 34-7, Week 8.
While games won/lost comparisons seem to favor the Broncos for a win versus the Chiefs on Sunday, left is some room for doubt, and data-comparisons regarding field and player accomplishments fail to reduce that room for doubt considerably, for instance, while today the Broncos total number of receiver TD’s for the year is 34 compared with the Chiefs 13, the total Broncos rush TD’s total eight, the Chiefs rush TD’s twice that, 16, and though to date for 2014 the Broncos QB Peyton Manning has completed 301 passes and the Chiefs QB, Alex Smith, 213, Manning’s were from 442 attempts, Smith’s from 327 attempts, the success rate difference between the two QB’s being quite narrow, Manning’s 68.1 percent, Smith’s 65.1 percent.
Nor is there significant difference between the Broncos and Chiefs re. average time-of-possession, the Broncos 29 minutes per game, the Chiefs 30 minutes, nor is the number of first downs achieved by the two teams of a wide gap, Broncos 259, Chiefs, 226.
But surely a Broncos advantage exists from its top two receivers totaling more than 2,300 yards from Weeks 1 through 12, vs. the Chiefs top receivers gaining around 1,230 yards during the same weeks, a gap much wider than the Broncos rushing yards gained being around 1,100 and the Chiefs, 1,508.
Moreover, the Broncos are 3-2 for its last five games, the Chiefs 4-1 with a victory vs. the now 8-4 Seahawks, a team that the Broncos lost to, 26-20, Week 3.
Yes, the Broncos 24-17 win over the Chiefs during Week1 was the fifth of five Broncos/Chiefs matches in a series across seasons, the Broncos having won each of the five, and Week 13’s match will be a second Broncos/Chiefs encounter during NFL-2014. But---it’s an illusion to think that the same teams that met before are really the same as they were, for as a season moves on all teams change, some dramatically and for the better. Even with data advising a Broncos win, anything could happen from either team having failed to recognize how the other has transformed.
NBA---THE NBA Western Conference Southwest’s 13-2 Memphis Grizzlies are atop the NBA now along with the National Conference Atlantic Division’s Toronto Raptors, also 13-2, directly behind them the WC Northwest’s 13-3 Portland Trail Blazers, while at the Trail Blazers heels are the WC Pacific Division’s 12-2 Golden State Warriors.
Two other teams that have reached double-digit wins to date are the WC Southwest’s second place 12-3 Houston Rockets, and the WC Pacific’s 10-6 Phoenix Suns, the latter back of the Warriors by two wins.
Of the above-listed NBA franchises, the Raptors own the best lead, seven wins over the EC Atlantic’s 6-8 Brooklyn Nets, second best lead belonging to the WC Northwest’s 12-3 Trail Blazers being five wins above second place team, the 7-8 Denver Nuggets.
Still above the EC Southwest are the 9-5 Washington Wizards, and leading the EC Central are the 9-6 Chicago Bulls.
Unable to climb back yet to previous season high-end status are the WC Northwest’s Oklahoma City Thunder, now 4-12 and division fourth place, and within the EC Atlantic the 4-12/fourth position N.Y. Knicks. Add the EC Southeast’s third place 8-7 Miami Heat and the EC Central’s 6-9/fourth place Indiana Pacers.
 Of the 2103/14 top teams, perhaps rising for a long spell are the WC Southwest’s 10-4/third place San Antonio Spurs, now three wins behind first place team, the Grizzlies, while two back of the 12-3 Houston Rockets.
The EC Atlantic’s Philadelphia 76ers have continued to hover at Zero, they are currently 0-15, while all other division last placers have won three or more NBA 2014/15 games.
END/ml  

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